Quote from: Viking Mike on November 05, 2023, 07:21:52 PM
Congratulation to the Augustana Vikings football team that has grinded out a 8-1 campaign so far this year.  Despite their offense sputtering on Saturday, they were still able to play outstanding defense and take the win in Kenosha.  Unfortunately, I cannot remember when Augie last achieved 8 wins in a season.

Its has to be exciting for the team and fans to go into the last game of the season with so much on the line.  A CCIW championship and a berth in the NCAA playoffs for the victor. Obviously, like so many other opponents over recent years, we have not matched up well with the Cardinals in the past. 

Rare (first time?) poster here, but lurking for the last three years. On the way home from the Wheaton game yesterday - we've got a six hour drive each week - we were discussing what would happen in this exact scenario, calling it a "thought exercise" given a NCC win is almost a foregone conclusion. But should the "unthinkable" occur, as we described it, it would be a three-way tie atop the standings, assuming Wheaton takes care of business against North Park.

We found the CCIW Tiebreaker procedures here, which are:

     1. Head-to-head competition
     2. Best record by tied teams against the next best team or the next best tied teams in conference standings
     3. Point differential between tied teams in conference
     4. The fewest defensive yards given up versus tied teams in conference
     5. Random drawing by CCIW commissioner.

Based on the criteria above:

     1. All three teams would be 1-1 against the other
     2. All three teams are 1-0 vs. Wash U, which will finish as the "next best team" in the conference
     3. Point differential:
         a: Wheaton is "in the clubhouse" at minus-12 vs. NCC and Augie
         b: NCC is +19
         c: Augie is minus-7

Therefore, based on the above, if my calculations are correct, Wheaton is eliminated from the auto-bid. The Thunder cannot overcome the deficit and there is no scenario in which both Augie and NCC fall below minus-12.

In order for Augie to win the conference tiebreaker, they not only have to defeat North Central, but they must win by 14 points, which would put them at +7, and in turn, it would cause NCC to be +5. A 13-point victory would be a tie at +6, and would likely move the two teams to the fourth tie-breaker, I suppose.

As I said, a thought exercise. I expect NCC to win. Wheaton will be sweating it out for the third straight year, and Augie should be lining up trips to Culvers ... unless Wheaton ends up in Madison in Week 11.