Quote from: stlawus on February 22, 2025, 05:10:52 PMFirst minute of the game against Ithaca Shea Fitzgerald with a nasty ankle roll on the landing from a shot contest.  Something to keep an eye on.

Big loss for Vassar if he can't play next week.  When he is on, defenses need to guard him closely well beyond the NBA three point line. He single handedly was responsible for Vassar's first victory over RPI.  While Vassar's swarming defense had a lot to do with their second defeat of RPI, it seemed like any time RPI tried to come back, Fitzgerald would hit a long range three.  I did not see the injury, but I wish him well. Excellent player and only a sophomore.

Quote from: stlawus on February 21, 2025, 09:30:27 PMThe playoff field is set with Bard and Clarkson getting eliminated.  Seedings are still very fluid.  After losing at home to Hobart Vassar needs to win tomorrow AND have RPI lose to SLU to finish in first place. There are so many seeding implications tomorrow it's not even worth typing it all out. Union having the season sweep of RPI gets them the tie breaker in a lot of these scenarios.  Union winning tomorrow gets them a home game regardless.  SLU will need multiple combinations of results to get into 5th place which could see Hobart dropping to 6th.  I believe that hinges upon Clarkson losing to Skidmore/Bard beating RIT as crazy as that sounds. 

Quote from: stlawus on February 21, 2025, 09:56:42 PMAlso, if Ithaca beats Vassar and RPI loses to SLU RPI will get the 1st seed by virtue of sweeping Ithaca.

I had a lot of time on my hands this morning and I tried to wade through the seedings and expand on what you have already posted. In a few hours, all of this will be decided.  But I believe these are the possibilities.  It reminds me of a logic puzzle without enough information to completely solve.

RPI, Vassar and Ithaca get the top three seeds in some order.
·        RPI can finish 1 or 2.
·        Vassar can finish 1, 2 or 3.
·        Ithaca can finish 2 or 3.

Hobart, Union and SLU get the last three seeds in some order.
·        Hobart can finish 4, 5 or 6.
·        Union can finish 4, 5 or 6.
·        SLU can finish 5 or 6.

Head to head sweeps that could affect seeding
·        Vassar over RPI
·        RPI over Ithaca
·        SLU over Bard
·        Clarkson over SLU
·        (Union and RPI split)

Today's games with first game results
·        SLU @ RPI – RPI won first
·        Hobart @ Union – Hobart won first
·        Ithaca @ Vassar – Ithaca won first

RPI – 1 with a Win or a Vassar Loss.  Otherwise 2.
Vassar – 1 with a Win and an RPI L. 2 with a Win and an RPI Win. 3 with a Loss.
Ithaca – 2 with a Win. 3 with a Loss.
Hobart – 4 with a Win. 5 with a Loss and an SLU Loss.  **
Union – 4 with a Win. 5 with a Loss and an SLU Loss. **
SLU – 6 with a Loss. **

** If SLU wins today, they are in a tiebreaker for 5 with the loser of the Hobart/Union game.  As you have said, it gets crazy but I believe you got it correct.  If Bard finishes ahead of Clarkson in the standings, SLU gets 5.  Otherwise they get 6.

I probably have missed something.  But by 6:00 this evening it will all be decided.

Quote from: Bartman on February 08, 2025, 06:05:55 PMUnion is the hottest team at the point in the season, but it looks like RPI and Ithaca have the edge to gain byes for the playoffs,

Since losing a close one at then #1 Emory, Union has been playing very well. They have three losses to the top dogs - Ithaca, RPI and Vassar.  But they have beaten each of those teams in their last three games.  Matthew Garside has emerged as the player they thought they were getting out of high school.  He had 21, 21 and 23 points in the last three games.  He has also shot 14/24 from three point range in those games including the long buzzer beater today. 

I still like the position RPI is in with four games remaining.  They control their own destiny with all four games at home where they are undefeated. If they beat Vassar, RPI could lose one of their other three games and still win the league. I believe Vassar also controls their own destiny if they win all of their remaining games including the one at RPI next weekend.  They finish with Ithaca and Hobart at home.

Quote from: stlawus on January 22, 2025, 02:14:34 PMLeague is just tough. It's bad for the league's pool C aspirations but good for entertainment purposes.

Unfortunately I still believe the Liberty League will be a one bid team.  Even if a bunch of the LL teams could win some games in the NCAA tournament, it his highly likely that the only team that will have an opportunity will be the LL tourney winner.  Matt Snyder's computer simulation (https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/) currently gives RPI an extremely longshot chance at getting a pool C bid.  For that to happen, they would pretty much need no more than one loss the remainder of the season.  Then they would have to lose in the LL tourney and lots of other games across the country would have to fall in place.  In his simulation, no other LL teams had any shot at pool C.

Yes, the games have to be played and it is only a simulation.  But the longer we go into the season, the more accurate the simulation becomes.

Quote from: LLFan23 on January 24, 2025, 11:33:52 PMShocking result from RPI - Ithaca, Ithaca is inarguably a top 3 offense in the league this year and to see them get blanked like that shows how well RPI can defend when they are at their best. Tomorrow will be a huge day in the league I think we may gain some clarity as to what the playoff picture will look like.

I have seen many of RPI's games and I expected this one to be a mail biter.  Like everyone else I was wrong. 

Here is my take on what you always get from RPI this season.:

• Excellent defense
• Excellent coaching
• Well disciplined

This has been enough to win many games.  Unfortunately while they have some excellent "basketball players", they are not a consistently good shooting team.  Seven of their top eight can all hit the three, and when one or two get hot, RPI is tough to beat. But you can't count on it every game.  When RPI struggles from three point range and their opponent is lighting it up, RPI can be in trouble.

When RPI is hitting their threes and their opponent is struggling to make shots, blowouts can happen.  Last night Logan Wendell had two threes in the first 3 minutes for Ithaca. Ithaca as a team had two more threes the rest of the way. For RPI, Andrew Deppe and PJ Scalisi went 7-11 combined from three point range.  RPI's smothering defense bothered Ithaca and Ithaca had a lot of shots that rolled off the rim.

RPI also blew out Hobart in Troy, but Hobart got revenge in Geneva.  In the win,  RPI shot 9-14 on three pointers.  In the loss they were 5-21, including 0-9 in the second half.

Union plays at Emory today.  Union would be a huge underdog if there was a betting line.  Matt Snyder has them as a 33 point underdog and Massey makes them a 21-23 point dog.  Emory is currently ranked #1 in the d3hoops.com poll.  According to  Snyder's calculation, Emory currently has the best NPI in D3. So a victory over Emory on the road would currently be the best possible way to increase a team's NPI.  I hope Union play's well and I wish them luck.

Quote from: stlawus on December 04, 2024, 04:16:34 PMNot only are there standings implications but Pool C as well.

This year, pool C bids are all about a team's NPI.  NPI is a defined formula and their is no human intervention.  My understanding is strength of schedule, determined by opponents NPI, will have a huge impact on a team's NPI.  I doubt the non conference schedule of any of the LL teams, with the possible exception of Ithaca, will help improve the team's NPI.  Beating a team with a good NPI is the best way to improve your NPI.  Beating teams with a low NPI will probably not help.  Losing to a team with a high NPI is sometimes better than beating a bad team.  

Sure, St. Lawrence's victory over Oswego will be a boost, but the rest of their NC schedule will not help. Ithaca's NC schedule is definitely the best in the LL, and future wins against Hamilton and Carnegie Mellon would potentially put them in a good pool C position.  It does not look like any of RPI's opponents will help their NPI. Hobart's schedule is a little better than RPI's, but Rochester needs to win games against good UAA opponents to help Hobart.

The games need to be played and things will change, but I think a second LL team in the NCAA tournament will be a longshot.  If there is a second team, Ithaca is the probably the only team that can control their own destiny.  They need to have a good LL season with some wins over RPI/Hobart/St. Lawrence, win their remaining NC games, and lose the LL tournament.

Matt Snyder (d3datacast) posts the current NPI's on a daily basis.  They don't mean a whole lot now.  But when we get into February, the numbers should be a lot closer to what we can expect at year end.

RPI beat Hobart 72-55 in the Liberty League opener for both teams.  RPI lead most of the way in a close first half.  They continued to extend the lead throughout the second half to as much as 22 points.  The teams were much more evenly matched than the final score might indicate.  Free throws and three pointers were the big difference. If you take away Monty Nedd's 6-9, the rest of the Hobart team shot 2-16 from the free throw line.  RPI was 23-28 after shooting only 62% in their first three games.

RPI shot 9-14 from beyond the three point line after shooting 29% if their first three games. Hobart was 7-20 from three point range, but two of those came in the last 40 seconds. If the free throw and three point stats were closer to each team's norm, the game would have been much closer.

RPI opens their season at 4-0.  Avery Eugster led the Engineers with 16 points. RPI has had a different scoring leader in each game.  They have not given up more than 55 points in any of those games.  I can't see RPI blowing out many teams, but with their defense they should be in most every game this season. If they can get some clutch shooting, they will have the opportunity to win a lot of those games.

RPI posted their roster the other day.  It includes 19 players. Here are few armchair observations.

• Four of five starters return.  The one that does not return is LL POY Jonny Angbazo.
• As mentioned previously by stlawus, Avery Eugster returns as a grad student.  His brother Ben is the only player with meaningful minutes besides Angbazo that does not return.  Ben has moved on to Carnegie Melon for grad school.
• There are only two other seniors/grad students on the roster.  Chuck Clemons sat out last year with an injury although he played a lot as a junior. The other sat out his sophomore year with an injury and saw little time last year.
• There are seven freshmen and five sophomores on the roster. Two of the sophs started last year and two more played a lot.  It is very tough to predict freshman production based on high school.  A few had stellar HS careers at small schools.  The one that intrigues me the most is a 5-10 PG from Fordham Prep in the Bronx. He led his team to first place in the CHSAA "A" league and was named the league MVP.

I got to watch most of the Rochester-RPI game via pay per view.  Rochester proved they belonged in the hunt for the LL NCAA bid.  They did just enough on offense and stuffed the RPI running game to start the season at 5-0.  While I think Rochester has a chance to win all of their remaining games, they get Ithaca, Hobart and Union on the road so it will be tough.

Penalties once again killed RPI.  They had 9 for 100 yards including one offsetting penalty.  Critical ones included:

• Facemask on Rochester's opening play. Rochester then marched 59 yards down the field to go up 7-0.  Best drive of the day for Rochester.
• Three 15 yard penalties which lead to Rochester's second touchdown.
• False start on 3rd and 7 from the Rochester 15 in the fourth quarter.  RPI turned the ball over on downs.

RPI couldn't run the ball.  They had less than 25 yards net rushing and most of that was in the second half.  RPI did not dress their top two RBs.  That did not help, but even with White or Buckley, it still would have been a struggle.

Also, Kazanowsky had two interceptions. I did not see the first one that was deep in Rochester territory in Q1.  The second one was on RPI's final drive with about 30 seconds in the game after he had completed six passes in a row.

Like with the Endicott game, RPI had their opportunities, but they just couldn't finish. Ithaca and Hobart should be prepared for a dog fight when they play Rochester.

Now 28-20 Endicott with about 5 minutes to go.  Endicott scored on a 76 yard pass and run after an RPI could not convert a 4^th down.  On the next series, Kazanowsky was intercepted for a pick 6 on third down.  He was trying to avoid a sack and threw the ball up for grabs.  Neither White or Buckley has returned for RPI at running back.

RPI leads Endicott 20-14 late in the third.  Fairly even game so far with RPI having slightly better stats.  RPI looks like they have lost their top two running backs.  RPI leads the turnover battle 2-1. Penalties are even.

Now that RPI has posted their schedule, I believe these are the out of conference games for each team.  Ithaca plays four NCAA tournament teams **. Unless I missed some, all the others have zero or one.  Let me know if I made any mistakes.

Bard
Sarah Lawrence (@ Sarah Lawrence Tournament)
Washington College (@ Sarah Lawrence Tournament)
@ Sage
@ Mount St. Mary (Hudson Valley Tournament)
SUNY New Paltz** (Hudson Valley Tournament)
Hartwick
@ Merchant Marine

Clarkson             
Washington and Jefferson (@ Oberlin Tournament)
Oberlin or Lawrence (@ Oberlin Tournament)
@ SUNY Canton                               
@ NVU Lyndon               
SUNY Poly         
SUNY Potsdam                 
@ Alfred State 

Hobart
@ York (Pa.)                     
St. John Fisher                 
Keuka (Hobart Tournament)
Penn State Behrend or Buffalo State (Hobart Tournament)
Rochester                         
@ Utica**
@ SUNY-Maritime

Ithaca
Rowan** (@ NYU Tournament)
Babson** (@ NYU Tournament)
Cortland             
@ Utica **
@ Rochester     
Hamilton                             
Carnegie Mellon **

RIT
Fitchburg State (RIT Tournament)
Utica** or Lehman (RIT Tournament)
@ Rochester (@ Rochester Tournament)
Nazareth (@ Rochester Tournament)
St. John Fisher
@ Brockport
@ Geneseo

RPI
Cortland (@ Nazareth Tournament)
Nazareth or SUNY Potsdam (@ Nazareth Tournament)
Castleton
SUNY Cobleskill
SUNY Delhi
SUNY Canton (@ St John Fisher Tournament)
St John Fisher (@ St John Fisher Tournament)

Skidmore
@ Plattsburgh State       
Regis (Mass.)   
Alfred State       
SUNY Potsdam                 
Hartwick
@ Occidental College
@ Pomona-Pitzer

St. Lawrence
Oswego State**
Clarkson
@ Plattsburgh State
@ SUNY Geneseo
SUNY Poly
@ Nichols
@ Clark

Union
SUNY Cobleskill
Sarah Lawrence               
@ St. John Fisher           
NVU Lyndon (Union Tournament)
Colby or Plattsburgh State (Union Tournament)
LaGrange (@ Emory Tournament)
Emory (@Emory Tournament)

Vassar
Ohio Northern (@ Gettysburg Tournament)
Gettysburg or Arcadia (@ Gettysburg Tournament)
@ Sarah Lawrence
New Paltz** (Hudson Valley Tournament)
Mount Saint Mary (NY) (@ Bard - Hudson Valley Tournament)
Middlebury College (@ Middlebury Tournament)
Cortland or Saint Joseph's (ME) (@ Middlebury Tournament)

Last night, RPI was as dominant as they have been in a long time against any opponent (besides Dean).  They scored touchdowns on their first six possessions and took a knee on the only play of their next possession to end the first half. In the first half, Jake Kazanowsky had a career day going 15-18, 246 yards and 4 TD. Hayden Faraday caught two of the TDs and Kayden White rushed for 85 yards.  All three did not play in the second half.

RPI controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage. The defense smothered WPI almost like they knew every play beforehand.  Furthermore RPI only had two offensive penalties for 10 yards in the half. 

The only minor negatives were two messed up punt returns and a botched snap/hold on an extra point. On the first WPI punt, RPI did not call for a fair catch near midfield.  The returner got hit just as he caught the ball and he fumbled.  WPI recovered and went three and out.  The next WPI punt was rolling into the end zone. RPI picked it up on the one and was tackled on the three. RPI then had a 97 yard TD drive. 

In the second half, RPI sat most of the starters and lots of people got to play. WPI avoided the shutout when they scored in the last two minutes against mostly players not on the two deep.

Next week at Endicott will be a real test for RPI.  Endicott will have played three LL teams, so the game should be a good indicator of how RPI measures up.

Good luck to Hobart and Rochester this afternoon.

I still think there are a lot of question marks for all of the top 5 teams.  Hansen's rankings are reasonable in my opinion based on what we know.  Rochester needs to beat one of the LL teams not named St Lawrence or Buffalo State before they move up in the opinion poll.  A 4-0 non conference schedule doesn't do it.  If the top 4 teams had Rochester's schedule, they would probably all go 4-0.

I'm still not sure what to make of RPI. They got whopped by an excellent team at home and they beat the Landmark's pre-season number two on the road.  I did not see the Wilkes game (FloSports) so my thoughts are based on what I have heard and read.

• RPI could not run the ball against Wilkes in the first half, but Kayden White wore them down in the second half.
• Defense was suspect as they gave up some big plays, but they also made a lot of stops. Definitely a work in progress.
• If not for penalties, RPI would have won big. They had 12 for 133 yards and Wilkes got 6 first downs via penalty.  RPI is traditionally much more disciplined.
• I think the offense will be fine. Kazanowsky, White and Faraday are three of the best in the Liberty League. They lost two starting linemen and two of the other three have switched positions.  So there is still a learning curve.
• I will be surprised if RPI does not easily beat WPI at home this week.  RPI's first two opponents have big tests this week on the road.  La Crosse plays Grand Valley State who is the number 2 team in D2.  Wilkes visits Brockport. I am curious to see how both teams do.  Unfortunately the La Crosse game is on FloSports 

Like it or not, I expect to see more D3 conferences adopting the subscription model to watch games. Last year, the Landmark conference was the first D3 conference to go with FloSports.  When Wilkes joined the conference, they knew FloSports was part of it.  Since then, it looks like FloSports has signed up three more D3 conferences, although the terms and conditions may not be the same across all conferences.  It's not just football, but other sports as well.

I have no idea what the business model is for FloSports, or if it is sustainable.  But they now have signed four D3 conferences in a little over a year. They also seem to have some D2 conferences, "minor sports" in some D1 conferences, and some minor league professional sports. 

Here are a few links:

• Landmark/FloSports announcement: https://www.flosports.tv/2023/07/13/landmark-becomes-first-division-iii-conference-to-sign-historic-multi-year-agreement-with-flosports/
• D3Hoops article: https://d3hoops.com/columns/around-the-nation/2023-24/d3-go-with-the-flo
• D3boards thread: https://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=9545.0

If you do a search, there are a few reddit threads that beat the xxxx out of it.