First final four without a NESCAC team since 2009

First 16 rounds (by region):
1 Trinity
2 Babson
2 E. Conn
3 Ithaca
3 SUNY New Paltz
4 Stevens
5 E Town
6 Mary Wash
7 Baldwin Wallace
7 Marietta
7 Trine
8 Wash U
8 Chicago
9 UW Oshkosh
9 UW Eau Claire
10 Hardin Simmons


Left "on the board" (by region) for 3 spots:
1 Amherst (17-8) #3
2 Springfield (17-8) #6
3 Rochester (16-8) #4
4 Misericordia (18-7) #4
5 Johns Hopkins (20-6) #6 then Catholic (18-7) #7
6 Randolph Macon (19-6) #4
7 Calvin (19-5) #6
8 Augustana (17-8) #5
9 Wartburg (20-5) #5
10 Puget Sound (19-4) #3

I would argue you could make strong arguments for and against all 11 of those teams listed above. Since we have to prognosticate I will give my three guesses: Amherst, Calvin & Wartburg, with Johns Hopkins and Puget Sound rightfully complaining.

Lastly, wanted to comment on the chain about making sure we have "the best" teams in the tournament. That is certainly not the purpose. These young ladies are Student-Athletes, in that order. They have chosen to play for their school, be part of a team and compete "for the love of the game". It is great we get participants from all over the country, from all sorts of conferences and from all kinds of backgrounds. And no ranking system will be perfect or get it all right, so we live with the one they have put in place.

I have a daughter who picked a NESCAC school over an Ivy so she could start as a freshman and have a real shot at the tournament every year and another who turned down D1 money for a better academic experience, and proceeded to get injured the summer before her freshman year badly enough she may never play in college. Can we please just congratulate those that make it, give condolences to those fall off the bubble and cheer each and every kid for putting their heart out on the court.

Wonderful write up, it addresses the key pros and cons for each team very effectively. Thank you.

There has been at least one NESCAC team in the final 4 since 2012 (9 full tournaments), including 3 years with 2 and the 2020 season where it could easily have been 3. When placed up against that pedigree it is easy to imply that none of these teams are sweet 16 ready, but I think we have seen conference teams really step up in the NCAA tournament time and time again. No one was betting on a NESCAC final four participant last year but an inexperienced Amherst team (POY Schoonveld had more meaningful NCAA tournament minutes played than the entire Amherst team going into last year) showed the strength of the conference.

The write up clearly articulates the lack of dominant seniors which, I would argue, is the legacy of Covid. For example, Amherst's "two best seniors" are playing at Trinity of TX and Union, both transferring once the NESCAC announced the fact there would be no 2020/21 season, and Gadeleta and Gallo leave holes in their teams. Additionally, the recruiting class of '23 is very spotty, which makes sense if you were a recruit trying to find a home to play when the conference had one of the most strict lock down and testing policies around, and schools that charge $75k per year.

What I find very interesting is how the teams coming out of the Covid pandemic. There are exciting freshman, sophomores and juniors on all the squads, who will now get put through a cement mixer of conference play and the conference tournament. Having to play meaningful games every weekend will bring experience and confidence these players can use once the tournament rolls around.

I would like to speak specifically to Amherst. They have a front court of Stewart and Cwalina as sophomores (6'6 and 6'2), two freshman swing forwards in Tranum (6'0) and Liddle (35% from 3) and a back court of Patel, Vera and Barach, a junior and two sophomores, with significant NCAA tournament playing time. Just like last years team they will be wildly inconsistent as they learn the system, and in watching them they don't have the logic of GP's defense embedded in their behavior yet, but I don't think any of the current top 16 teams would be happy to see them in their bracket the first week of the tournament.

Personally 4 or 5 NESCAC teams in the tournament is completely reasonable and possible, which ones is something we will learn over the next month. Can't wait to watch.

Quote from: 7express on March 13, 2022, 01:41:16 AM
Too bad there's no bracket challenge this year I might have actually won the thing as I had Amherst, Whitewater, Hope & Trine in the final 4.  I took a lot of losses in the early rounds, but hopefully my four for four semifinal predictions bump my total up somewhat.  Probably not a lot (if any) had all 3 of Whitewater, Trine & Amherst advancing.

I had the same final 4 ... it looks like our only difference is the Whitewater v Amherst game.

"Round 4:
Amherst, Whitewater, Hope, Trine"

https://masseyratings.com/tourn?t=1512

Massey Bracket is out ... still don't get why the WIAC is so heavily valued, but sometimes math works in mysterious ways. Certain that the model has had challenges this year, but always an interesting data point.

Sum, Average and Median of ratings by bracket:
CNU = 1434, 95.6, 54.5 (2 top 10, 4 top 20) lowest 5, highest 309
Smith = 1052, 65.7, 46.0 (4 top 10, 7 top 20) lowest 3, highest 308 (also has #4 Whitewater)
Hope = 920, 57.5,  45.0 (3 top 10, 4 top 20) lowest 1, highest 151 (NJC)
Transylvania = 975, 60.9 39.0 (1 top 10, 3 top 20) lowest 2, highest 191
(La Crosse #19 and Calvin #20 did not make it, so only 18 of the top 20)

Round 1:
CNU, Johns Hopkins, Trinity TX, Whitman, Tufts, DeSales, St. John Fisher, Amherst
Smith, Emmanuel MA, DePauw, Whitewater, Gettysburg, Baldwin-Wallace, Oshkosh, Simpson
Hope, Marietta, Wartburg, Eau Claire, NYU, Bates, Babson, NJC
Ithaca, Springfield, John Carroll, Trine, MHB, ETB, Shenandoah, Transylvania

Round 2:
CNU, Whitman, Tufts, Amherst
Smith, Whitewater, Gettysburg, Simpson
Hope, Eau Claire, Bates, NJC
Ithaca, Trine, ETB, Transylvania

Round 3:
Whitman, Amherst
Whitewater, Simpson
Hope, Bates
Trine, Transylvania

Round 4:
Amherst, Whitewater, Hope, Trine

Round 5: Amherst, Hope

Hope 65 Amherst 50

Quote from: VT-Alum-NOVA on March 02, 2022, 08:42:41 PM
of late, CNU has varied its full court press to be less zone and more man press.  this is just to reduce time on shot clock and make starters work (and fatigue them).  this has also reduced number of open 3pt looks by opponents.
The matchup problems against CNU is not only its starting 5 but how many minutes its next 5 play.
Finally, scoring tends to be who ever has the hot hand.  although Fan is really good, before C2C championship game, she was really off for last 3 games before that (avg only 4 ppg in those 3 games).  the slack was picked up by another starter and bench. 
To beat them, you MUST limit them to less than 70.  the four "close" games had CNU around 70. Gettysburg (70-67), @Mary Wash (68-61), @Salibury (63-57), UCSC (74-70).

The problem with CNU is their best win is against the team we were debating as the 20th team in Pool C. Tufts beat UCSC 75-47, so offensively equivalent to CNU but 23 points better on defense. CNU has very talented and athletic players but they have not played a top 16 team yet and now they will need to win 4 in a row against that level of competition. Not saying they can't we won't get to see until the second weekend.

Quote from: scottiedawg on March 02, 2022, 05:24:19 PM

Quote from: ronk on March 02, 2022, 05:21:09 PM

Quote from: scottiedawg on March 02, 2022, 04:00:15 PM
There are 5 teams in the tournament that meet all three of these criteria:
At least 5 wins v RRO
The average WP of the teams that were those RRO wins is greater than 0.750
The average SOS of the teams that were those RRO wins is greater than 0.550


Anyone wanna guess the 5?

Guessing Scranton, Simpson, CNU, Eau Claire, and Amherst or Tufts

(Y) Scranton
(N) Simpson (0.542 average SOS among RRO wins)
(N) CNU (0.718 WP)
(Y) Eau Claire
(Y) Amherst
(N) Tufts (0.731 WP)

NYU and Smith?

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 05:04:13 PM
True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Having watched those three they do have 14-15 turnovers a game, but the vast majority come when they are trying to get an entry pass to the post. And those types of turnovers don't typically lead to fast breaks. Does not mean a CNU (or Hope) won't get their turnovers with quick hands and aggressiveness, just that they won't get easy points off them. CNU gets fast break points and open threes from disorganized transition defense, those should be far and few between if someone wants to beat them.

Because Hope can create points out of a half court set. For someone to beat Hope the team will have to minimize giving up transition points, shoot efficiently from three point range and maintain poise if you are ahead in the 4th quarter as Hope ratchets up the pressure. And then make your free throws.

Hope Bracket:
As much fun as the games will be I think it is the top four seeds; Hope, Eau Claire and NYU, Scranton. Not really sure how it plays out but it is Hope's to lose, if they don't lay an egg they are through. Again, not sure bringing the top four seeds in is a spoiler.

Smith Bracket:
Just the opposite in my mind. Smith, DePauw, Whitewater, Gettysburg, Baldwin Wallace, Wis. Lutheran or Simpson - take your pick. It feels like any one of those seven could get hot enough to win 4 straight. Covid has created a situation where none of these teams have deep tournament experience (if I did my research none played a sweet 16 game in 2019, we didn't have sweet 16 games in 2020 and no tournament in 2021) so it may be just which team stays calm and composed the second weekend.

Transylvania Bracket:
Transylvania, Ithaca and Trine. One of those three (again top 3 seeds) will represent. The Ithaca v Trine game will be great and the Transylvania v winner will be fantastic. But, not bringing a spoiler.

CNU bracket:
I have Trinity, TX over Hardin-Simmons in the first round, I think the rest go off without an upset.

Whitman v Trinity is going to be interesting. If Whitman keeps it slow and half court I think they can pull this off. It also then bodes very well for them against CNU. While CNU v Trinity would be a track meet.

Amherst v Tufts take 3. It is really hard to beat a good team three times in the same season. The first time Tufts had Covid issues, the second time Amherst was the one missing bodies, but the outcome was the same. Unless Tufts figures out how to stop Amherst's offense (or Amherst goes 1-14 on open threes like the first three quarters of the Bates game) it will go the same way again.

Amherst (or Tufts) v CNU would be a clash of styles. CNU scores 85 a game, 34 of those "off turnovers" and 22 from behind the 3 point line. Can CNU score points out of a half court offense with a 5'10"-6'1" guard playing defense against Fan? And can they stop a team that brings three 6'0" plus players into a disciplined offensive set eating 20 seconds of clock each trip that only turns the ball over 14 times a game, and most of those on entry passes to the post? Whichever team can impose its style for the majority of the 40 minutes would win.

But getting the 1 and 2 (or 3) seeds into the elite eight is not bringing a "spoiler" to the table.

For Pool C:

I have these 14 in:
Amherst, Tufts, UW-Whitewater, Trine, DePauw, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Springfield, Millikin, East Texas Baptist, Babson, Johns Hopkins, John Carroll, UW-Oshkosh, Wartburg

And these 12 for the last 6 spots:
Cortland, Stevens, Washington and Lee, Trinity (Conn.), Mary Washington, Elizabethtown, Carroll, Catholic, Marietta, Loras, Salisbury, UC Santa Cruz

Quote from: ronk on February 27, 2022, 06:49:44 PM
Looking at the ranking 1-16 from the 1st regional rankings and adjusting for losses since then, the probable #1 seed in each quadrant would be CNU, Transylvania, Simpson, and Smith or Scranton. Of course, changes in vrro for the new unreleased regional rankings might affect the order.

My guess (in no particular order):
1 seeds - CNU, Transylvania, Simpson and Smith
2 seeds - Scranton, NYU, Hope, Amherst
Next 8 - Tufts, UW-Whitewater, Trine, Gettysburg, Ithaca, Messiah, DePauw, Whitman

Not sure if Whitman gets to host so it might be MHB

The top half of my list is "over rated" in the Regional Rankings (IMHO). What they have in common is a win over a RR opponent, mostly 3 or 4 games against RR opponents and SoS between .475 and .500 ... AND they are winning their conference. I think I need to weight the fact that they are winning their conference more than I do as I think the committee is saying they can't do much about the conference SoS, other than win the damn conference.

Team                       RR    Win %    RR Win %    # RR Games       SoS
Roger Williams           3      92%         50%                 2              0.500
Wisconsin Lutheran    2       95%          100%                3              0.487
Emmanuel                 3       96%        75%                 4              0.483
Trinity (Texas)           4        92%        33%                 3              0.483
Rhodes                     2        90%        50%                 4              0.482
Immaculata                        65%         50%                2              0.479
Washington and Jeff            81%          0%                 1              0.475
Penn State-Behrend            83%           0%                1              0.474
Clarks Summit                    82%           0%                1              0.471
Brooklyn                    7       86%          0%                3              0.458
Framingham State      9       87%         50%                2             0.453
Webster                             100%     #DIV/0!             0              0.449
Greensboro                        95%           50%              2              0.446
Gallaudet                           65%             0%              1              0.439
New England College   7      71%            0%               3              0.430

I am going to ignore teams that I think are in for sure (you can figure it out since I list the current regional rankings) and the placeholders for conferences that are getting only one invite (my list includes 20 conferences).

R01   Emmanuel         3
R01   Trinity (Conn.)   4
R01   Bates                5
Region 1 regional ranking depends on the last few games. Bates beating Trinity in semi-final could swap those two. Emmanuel losing could drop them, perhaps below both. My guess is two of these three are in. All three perhaps if Emmanuel and Bates win their conferences.
Total 6 or 7.

R02   Roger Williams  3
R02   Babson             4
Do you take Babson, if they lose to Smith in the final, instead of Roger Williams if they lose to Gordon, Endicott or UNE?
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R03   Cortland             3
R03   SUNY New Paltz  4
Do you take the loser of these two in the final? I say no, but I am wrong alot.
Total 3 or stretch 4.

R04   DeSales   2
R04   Stevens   3
DeSales is in regardless, so ... does Stevens only get in if they win the conference?
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R05   Johns Hopkins  4
R05   Elizabethtown   5
R05   Catholic           6
Catholic will jump E-town and I think it is between them and Johns Hopkins, if they make the final, for one spot.
Total 6.

R06   Mary Washington   4
Really has to make a run deep into the C2C buzz saw.
Total 5 or stretch 6.

R07   Marietta    6
R07   Otterbein   7
Both lost, ended their seasons.
Total 7.

R08   Illinois Wesleyan  4
R08   Carroll                5
I don't think either is even on the bubble.
Total 4.

R09   UW-Oshkosh  4
R09   Wartburg       5
R09   Loras            6
I have the first two in. I think Loras is in with a win over Wartburg tonight.
Total 8 or 9.

R10   Hardin-Simmons  5
R10   Redlands             6
R10   UC Santa Cruz     7
R10   Puget Sound        8
I have HS in. Redlands only if they win conf. I have a soft spot for USSC as I have watched one of their seniors since she was in the 6th grade. I think they would make a fun 64th team in for a top 16 team to have to deal with. A run the conference tournament sure would help. Puget Sound ... heck, if they make the final ... maybe.
Total 6 or 7.

And, yes, I can do math, that adds up to 55 "for sure" spots and only 7 stretch teams ... so I am short 2. Let's save those for an upset in a couple of the conference tournaments.