Round 1
Smith / St John Fisher / Roger Williams / DeSales / Trinity / Cortland / Gust Adolphus / UWW
Transy / Milikin / UWO / Ohio Northern / Loras / Trine / Messiah / NYU
CNU / Elizabethtown / BW / Hope / Trinity / Hardin / Skidmore / Tufts
Babson / GBurg / Marietta / Ithaca / Chicago / UWEC / RIC / Scranton

Round 2
Smith / DeSales / Trinity. / UWW
Transy / UWO / Trine / NYU
CNU / Hope / Trinity / Tufts
Babson / Marietta / Chicago / Scranton

Sweet 16
Smith / UWW
UWO / NYU
Hope / Tufts
Babson / Chicago

Elite 8
UWW
NYU
Hope
Chicago

Final 4
NYU
Hope

Champion
Hope (145)

Good points.  I guess you can make the argument that it doesn't matter if the top seed in a quadrant is at the top or the bottom of the bracket.  It does appear as if Whitewater is ahead of Trinity (Conn) and the top 8 seeds are at either the top or bottom of each quadrant.

If chalk holds, and if CNU men win and host the second weekend, I'm not sure Trinity Tx will be the host for second weekend as most are currently discussing.  It appears the way the bracket was constructed, Tufts is the 7 seed and Trinity is the 9th.  I'm not sure if the hosting has to fall to the next highest seed, just pointing out Tufts is the higher seed.

I for one, love how Scott crunches numbers to form his opinion.  The SOS for Smith is elite - second only to Tufts to date (more on the NESCAC in a bit).  Despite their tough schedule, only one loss on the road against an average Framingham St team (116 Massey) is very impressive.  Remember, Smith lost by 2 to Finalist Whitewater in the Elite 8 last year and brought just about everyone back for another run this year.  Circling back to the NESCAC, I'm the first to admit the NESCAC is down this year.  However, I do think people are sleeping on the conference a bit this year.  8th seeded (!) Bowdoin almost knocked off NYU on the road, and both Smith and Trinity had to storm back in the 4th quarters for wins against the Polar Bears.  While the NESCAC may not have an elite team this year, they are strong from 1-8 and the conference tournament is truly wide open.  The first round match up that I have my eye on is #3 seed Trinity versus #6 seed Amherst.  I have been harsh on Amherst this year - particularly on their relatively weak SOS.  I think if they lose vs Trinity - they will be out of the NCAA Tourney.  Amherst is getting healthy and playing better as of late and I am predicting an upset versus Trinity to stamp their ticket to the dance.  Unless there is a surprise NESCAC champ, that would IMO have Trinity, Tufts, and Amherst in the tourney with all 3 capable of making a run.  Trinity reminds me of Amherst - they play tough D and grind out low scoring games.  Tufts turned around their season when they got healthy, and more importantly, started to commit to playing defense rather than trying to outscore other really good teams.  In summary, I think top 25 poll voters should weigh SOS a bit more than they do.

With 2 weekends left in the NESCAC regular season, I'm circling 2 big games on the last weekend of regular season play.  With Trinity and Tufts at the top of the conference standings, Trinity at Tufts on 2/11 could be for the regular season crown and hosting rights for the NESCAC tournament.  Trinity has rolled through the NESCAC to date, but finishes up on the road at Williams, at Middlebury, at Bates, and then at Tufts.  Tufts, who has been playing well as of late, has an easier schedule at Colby and Bowdoin, then at home against Wes and Trinity.  On the other end of the standings, I am also circling the 2/11 game when Bowdoin plays Amherst.  Could that game be a winner makes the NESCAC tournament and the loser stays home?  It could be, as Amherst is currently 2-5 in conference play and currently out of the NESCAC tournament.   Bowdoin has a tough remaining schedule playing Bates and Tufts this weekend, then the brutal at Hamilton and at Amherst to finish the season.  My prediction - Anherst wins the final 3 conference games to make the tournament and Bowdoin is on the outside looking in.  Amherst would be a tough opening game for one of the top finishers in the opening round of the NESCAC tourney.  Outside of Trinity and Tufts, the standings are tight in the still wide open NESCAC and it's going to be a great finish to the regular season and a wild, upset filled NESCAC tournament!

Thoughts on wide open NESCAC as we approach conference play with predictions for top 8 in standings:

1) Trinity.  Would have been big favorite if Gallo returned, not sure what happened there.  Very un-NESCAC like with the D1 transfers, but to each their own!  Reilly is a very strong post presence who will be in the running for POY.  Second D1 transfer Wax is very good.  They play dood defense and have an experienced team.  Good win versus Springfield and almost took down a very good Smith team. 

2) Tufts.  Tufts is playing a relatively young/inexperienced lineup.  POY candidate Russell is a junior and averaging a double double again, but their next 2 leading scorers are freshman, followed by a Sophomore.  I expect Tufts to get better as the year moves along and the team gets more experience.  Tufts has played a BRUTAL schedule to date unlike Amherst (more on that in a bit) with games against NYU, Scranton, Emory, Stevens, and upcoming games against Smith and Babson.  Tufts played NYU very close for 2 and a half quarters without Russell before they ran out of gas and got rolled late.  They also played a very tough Scranton team well until the end of that game.

3) Bowdoin.  Huge props to new coach Phelps for having the Polar Bears playing great despite virtually the same team from last year (16-9, 5-5 in conf).  Bowdoin will be one of the most experience teams which could play dividends in what I expect to be many close games in a parity filled NESCAC this year.  Only 2 losses were the great effort against NYU and a close loss to Smith.

4) Amherst.  Amherst lost a LOT from their Final 4 team from a year ago.  While I agree with Gordon Mann that Amherst is young, I'm not sure about them being a super talented team.  Patel is special and will make all team 1st conference, but I don't see the same talent in the youngsters like I see at Tufts.  Maybe they will also grow as the season progresses, but I am skeptical.  Now, we all know they will be a great defensive team and incredibly well coached, but I don't see the firepower to compete for a NESCAC title this year.  Which leads me to my next point, did GP know this and schedule an incredibly weak out of conference schedule (outside of a good Springfield team) with the hopes his winning % gets him in the tourney?  My prediction, if they don't win the tournament, and I don't think they will, controversy will be coming when the committee either lets in a 4th NESCAC team, or not.

5) Williams.  I like Williams mix of experience and new blood.  Mandyk is very athletic and a really good rebounder while being a capable scorer.  Seniors Holtze and Biesbrock are both solid and have done well with increased playing time.  The wild card for Williams is Sophomore Gerig, who has lots of upside.  She is big, athletic, and can do it all.  If she continues to develop, I think Williams will have a few upset wins this year.

6) Hamilton.  Props to Coach Green - she has this team playing hard.  Their leading scorer is a Freshman Lambo who is big and good around the basket.  Sehring is very athletic and a good rebounder/defender.  Hall is a talented point guard and does a good job running the team.  Freshman Hill a is deadly 3 point shooter and Coach Green has some athletic bigs who come off the bench.  Hamilton has impressive wins against SJF and Rochester, lost to top 10 Baldwin Wallace in a close game, and lost to a good Ithaca team today.   Hamilton also has tough non-conference matchups with   
Smith and Babson on the horizon.  Hamilton is an up and coming program, but I don't think they quite have the talent to compete for a title this year.

7) Middlebury.  Like Patel, i think Mustafaj is special.  Her floater game is elite and her 3 point shooting is very good.  Middlebury is also fairly young and they also play hard.  With Mustafaj, they can beat any NESCAC team on any given night, I just don't think they have the talent beyond her to be at the top of the NESCAC.

8) Bates.  Yes, the defending champs will sneak into the NESCAC tournament, but it won't be easy.  Defending POY Graff is back and doing her thing, but does not have a lot of help.  Losing Gadeleta (don't know if she is coming back this year or not), really hurt the Bobcats.  As good as Graff is, it's going to a struggle to get that 8th spot this year for Bates.
   

Unfortunately, only 2 two women's teams from the NESCAC remain as Bates lost their second round game.  Amherst vs. Tufts 3 will be a great game.  We know Amherst is going to bring the heat on defense as usual.  Bates beat Amherst in the NESCAC finals by matching their intensity on defense (and they have a better offense).  Tufts is similar to Bates (I think Tufts was 1st in scoring in NESCAC, Bates was second) in that they would rather outscore their opponents.  Tufts seemed more committed to defense in their win versus a tough and talented DeSales team.  I'm predicting a close game that will go down to the wire, with the winner playing Trinity, TX who will upset #1 overall seed CNU for a trip to the final 4.

Quote from: Augie2020 on February 15, 2022, 10:56:03 PM
Just to bring up another conversation that Mr Maus brought up a couple days ago.I don't see the Nescac getting 3 or 4 teams in(women)!I think only way you get 3 teams from nescac is Trinity wins the Nescac-Whats your take Sdawg& GM or anyone else?

IMO, no chance NESCAC gets 4 teams in this year.  I think Trinity gets in if they make it to the NESCAC finals.

NESCAC a three team race between Trinity, Amherst, & Tufts.  @Ronk @Saratoga - agree on Trinity, they have made a huge jump this year.  Gallo & Campbell both talented bigs who can score and Althoff coming off bench is strong.  Guard play a little inconsistent, but when they play well, they are tough to beat.  If you like defense, Amherst is your team.  They get in your face and open shots are tough to come by with them and they lead the league in blocked shots.  @Gordon - agree that Tufts has the best team when everyone is available.  Rosa is rounding into form and leads the league in FG% (57%), Poindexter McHan leads the league in 3PT% (42%), Russell leads the league in rebounding at 12.1 (best avg in 20+ years in NESCAC).  Not to mention Ryan, their best all around player.  Should be an interesting tournament this year.  Darkhorse - Middlebury - they play hard and Mustafaj is the real deal!

@Dawg - Bates lost to Middlebury and now has them in the first round of the NESCAC at their place.