Quote from: Coach Andrew on November 06, 2023, 11:48:31 AM
At Large Bid Predictions:

Region 1
Conn College
Middlebury
Tufts

Region 2
Babson

Region 3
Oneonta St.
Brockport
Rochester

Region 4
NONE

Region 5
F&M
Washington College

Region 6
Christopher Newport
W&L

Region 7
Kenyon
OWU
Case Western
John Carroll

Region 8
Chicago

Region 9
UWP

Region 10
Colorado College
Trinity

Bubble Teams Pick 3
Bowdoin
Carleton
GAC
North Central
Otterbein

Pool B
Eau Claire

I had one miss - Brockport, and only one of my bubble teams didn't get in (Bowdoin). Ill take it!

At Large Bid Predictions:

Region 1
Conn College
Middlebury
Tufts

Region 2
Babson

Region 3
Oneonta St.
Brockport
Rochester

Region 4
NONE

Region 5
F&M
Washington College

Region 6
Christopher Newport
W&L

Region 7
Kenyon
OWU
Case Western
John Carroll

Region 8
Chicago

Region 9
UWP

Region 10
Colorado College
Trinity

Bubble Teams Pick 3
Bowdoin
Carleton
GAC
North Central
Otterbein

Pool B
Eau Claire

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 05, 2023, 04:05:57 PM

Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 05, 2023, 04:01:39 PM
Talking about it over in the MA thread, but Muhles are going to be sweating a lot more than W&L at this point. Other than NESCAC and UAA (some years), I just don't think any one conference gets 4 teams.

If any other conferences gets 4 this year should be the OAC.

And yeah, I think W&L is safe but when you don't win the AQ you just never know until you see your name pop up.  Muhlenberg imo went from off the bubble entirely to on it inside of a week.

I agree, tough ask to get 4 from any conference outside of the NESCAC but the OAC looks to be deserving of it this year. Much Lemberg on the bubble for sure and most likely on the wrong side of it.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 05, 2023, 02:50:23 PM

Quote from: Coach Andrew on November 05, 2023, 02:39:55 PM
UW-Platteville is down 3-1 late vs Mary Washington, another Pool C is likely off the board.

It's now 3-2 83rd minute as Wisconsin-Platteville hits a PK.

UW-Platteville Fall 3-2 to Mary Washington. They are a certain lock for a Pool C bid.

UW-Platteville is down 3-1 late vs Mary Washington, another Pool C is likely off the board.

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 02, 2023, 11:43:21 AM
With a bit more research I think Wheaton is probably on the bubble, not off.  The Thunder have three ranked wins and a h2h win over Carthage. However yesterday Carthage was one spot ahead in the RR...and now Carthage has another ranked win after last night.  Both Carthage and Wheaton also add ranked wins for next week as they hold wins over Trine.

I don't believe that the Thunder have a shot for a Pool C as both NC and Carthage would have to get off the board before them.

Quote from: regionxfan17 on November 05, 2023, 07:53:36 AM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on November 03, 2023, 11:15:37 AM
With the demise of d3soccer.com, I miss the extensive work that Cristan did prior to the tournaments.  Here is my effort at showing who has captured Pool A slots, who has been knocked out of conference tournaments, and who is still playing.

Records are current as of last night, as are the R v R numbers.  I did not update the SOS numbers, so I used the ones from the last regional rankings.

Teams highlighted in red have clinched a Pool A.  Basically, among ranked teams currently this only applies to Emory.  Teams in yellow have been eliminated from Pool A consideration and will need Pool C.  Teams not highlighted are still alive in their conference tournaments and some of them will wind up earning Pool A bids.  Remaining games for each of the non-highlighted teams are included.  I will update at the conclusion of each day, wrapping it all up on Sunday night.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e8PonooxY65NqKqnOoR4CBGGXoAYFYv7Tb88ZXrLf-k/edit?usp=sharing

This document is a sanity-helper, College Soccer Observer!! 

Quick question: for the updated RvRs, did you also factor in changes in ranked teams for the current week?  So, for example, if a team had a win (loss) against a team that was newly ranked this week, did you add that win (loss)?  (And conversely, if it had a win (loss) against a team no longer ranked, does it get that win (loss) removed?)

Case in point:  Region X - with Southwestern entering the rankings and MHB/Pac Lutheran leaving, I think some of the RvRs would need to account not only for their conference playoff results but also the changes in their prior results?

That's a lot of work obviously, so if not no worries, but it would be good to know in order to mentally note these changes in RvR.

I think this might help clear some things up as well. The only rankings that matter for RvR are weeks 3 and 4 (Week 4 comes out after the selection show). A big reason why the week 4 rankings are so important is because an unranked team jumping in could provide a team with another RvR result, that could hurt or help them. This 4th week of rankings is also what the national committee will go off of for the selection of at-large bids. For example, if a team like Carthage who lost in their conference final jumps North Central who they beat in the tournament, it could make it extremely difficult for North Central to get off the board because Carthage would have to first.

Quote from: BlueJay95 on November 04, 2023, 09:45:32 PM
Also think Otterbein perhaps should be included in that bubble list?

The reason I left off Otterbein from the Bubble list is that, although their SOS will get a boost from their last two games, they have a low SOS and are under .500 vs ranked opponents. On top of that, they are DEEP in their regional rankings. Despite a win in PKs vs John Carroll, I don't think it's enough to put them above John Carroll and I do not see a scenario where both John Carroll and Otterbein get in. That was at least my thinking! I agree that they could very well be in that bubble conversation but it would be at the bottom of the bubble list for sure.

My LOCKs for Pool Cs by region:
Lock = teams from last week's regional rankings which I have no doubts about their resumes.
THIS INCLUDES TEAMS WHO COULD STILL WIN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT


Region 1
Conn College
Middlebury
Amherst
Tufts

Region 2
Babson

Region 3
Cortland St.
Oneonta St.

Region 4
Montclair St.

Region 5
Messiah
F&M
Washington College
Johns Hopkins

Region 6
Mary Washington
Christopher Newport
W&L

Region 7
Kenyon
OWU
ONU

Region 8
Calvin
Chicago

Region 9
UWP

Region 10
Colorado College

BUBBLE TEAMS (No Order)
Bowdoin
Brockport St.
Rochester
Stevens
Muhlenberg
Lynchburg
Case Western
John Carroll
North Central
Carthage
Carleton
Trinity
St. Thomas

22 LOCKS
13 BUBBLE TEAMS

What this tells me:
The bubble teams need a number of the current locks to win their conference tournaments!

Quote from: stlawus on November 03, 2023, 10:07:39 PM
Wash College is going to have around a .590 SOS, 3-2-1 against RR opponents and a very good win%.  I'm pretty confident that they're in.

Agreed!

Quote from: Kuiper on November 03, 2023, 09:30:53 PM
It feels like there are too many teams that are "for sure Pool C bids" who are losing in their conference tournaments or even before that for all of them to get Pool C bids

In past years, the standard for SOS was .555 to even get consideration for pool C bids. Another standard is to be about .500 vs ranked opponents. These are good metrics to use to eliminate possible pool C teams who many think are "locks".