Excited for the matchup between Tufts and Wesleyan this weekend. I can't wait to see Bob Stewart, the D3 Jokic come off the bench for the Jumbos and have a profound impact on the game. Tufts might even have the best 1-2 punch coming off at PG, with James Morakis and Liam Kennelly (with Jackson Patton not far behind). Give me the Jumbos in a tight contest with a 67-63 victory.

Have had enough of all of the Trinity talk. Truly believe that Tufts is going to be the one to dethrone them. Gyimesi is going to be NESCAC POTY and could see some senior contributors such as Cain coming off the bench and having a big impact from behind the arc.

Quote from: stlawus on November 12, 2024, 12:13:21 PM

Quote from: flyingdutchman on November 12, 2024, 09:49:06 AMI understand the frustration with 8 NESCAC teams in the tournament, but the whole point of the NPI system is to get the "best" teams into the tournament. Yes, some of the NESCAC teams like Bowdoin or Wesleyan have a 7-5-5 record and 7-4-5 record, but they have quality results that prove they can compete with the best. Bowdoin has tied Tufts twice, Conn, and Williams. Those are ties against the 2nd, 5th, and 6th best ranked teams. Whether or not NPI is weighing a quality tie too much in the calculation is one thing, but it shows they can compete on any given day with the best. Wesleyan on the other hand has a tie vs Babson(#10), a tie vs Bowdoin, a tie against Williams, and a win over #5 Conn. Again, showing that a team like Wesleyan who is the 6th or 7th NESCAC team into the tournament is deserving of being a top 32 team in the country. It's difficult when teams like St Lawerence don't make the tournament given their recent results and run but you have to understand that in order to make the tournament, especially with the new NPI system you can't lose or tie bad teams. ST Law loss to SUNY Geneso the 161st ranked team. Tied Ithaca the 163rd ranked team, tied Clarkson the 108th ranked team. Tied Hobart the 172nd ranked team. I truly believe that a lot of teams ranked ahead of teams such as Ithaca aren't as good as them but it doesn't help when your conference doesn't get results outside of your conference. Take a look at the NESCAC out of conference record, and you'll realize one of the reasons they are all ranked so high. 

This isn't about SLU, and I 100% disagree with the notion that NPI is about getting the best teams in. It should be about getting the most deserving teams in, not the best. Major difference. There is no reason a team barely above .500 should be in the NCAA tournament. Not one. Again, this is completely contrary to the point of division 3. Every year in every sport there are lots of good teams that get left out, but they are left out because they didn't win games.

So what is the difference then between best teams and most deserving teams? What team in your opinion, deserves to be in the tournament over some of those NESCAC teams. SOS is a real thing. The whole point of all the AQ spots is for teams that are successful in their conferences to be given a chance in the tournament even though we all know some of those teams aren't the best in the country. The at large bids however, are for the BEST teams in the country...

I understand the frustration with 8 NESCAC teams in the tournament, but the whole point of the NPI system is to get the "best" teams into the tournament. Yes, some of the NESCAC teams like Bowdoin or Wesleyan have a 7-5-5 record and 7-4-5 record, but they have quality results that prove they can compete with the best. Bowdoin has tied Tufts twice, Conn, and Williams. Those are ties against the 2nd, 5th, and 6th best ranked teams. Whether or not NPI is weighing a quality tie too much in the calculation is one thing, but it shows they can compete on any given day with the best. Wesleyan on the other hand has a tie vs Babson(#10), a tie vs Bowdoin, a tie against Williams, and a win over #5 Conn. Again, showing that a team like Wesleyan who is the 6th or 7th NESCAC team into the tournament is deserving of being a top 32 team in the country. It's difficult when teams like St Lawerence don't make the tournament given their recent results and run but you have to understand that in order to make the tournament, especially with the new NPI system you can't lose or tie bad teams. ST Law loss to SUNY Geneso the 161st ranked team. Tied Ithaca the 163rd ranked team, tied Clarkson the 108th ranked team. Tied Hobart the 172nd ranked team. I truly believe that a lot of teams ranked ahead of teams such as Ithaca aren't as good as them but it doesn't help when your conference doesn't get results outside of your conference. Take a look at the NESCAC out of conference record, and you'll realize one of the reasons they are all ranked so high. 

I think the comparison is a similar one when comparing goals against, shots against, etc, between the Middlebury and Tufts backlines. A player from both teams is fully deserving of the Defensive POTY award, and I believe it will come down to Luke Madden or Max Clivio. A first team All American vs a second team All American is as close as it gets, and they are both leaders of two outstanding backlines. I believe it's one of these two, and from what I've watched, I would prefer Clivio.

Based on the NPI rankings—and I know it's still early—I would expect the five top-10 teams, Tufts, Middlebury, Amherst, Williams, and Conn College, to be almost certain bids for the tournament. With Wesleyan ranked #20, Bowdoin at #34, and Hamilton at #36, it's not out of the question that we could see a potential sixth or even seventh NESCAC team make it. I understand that some conferences, like the UAA, haven't played many conference games yet, so their SOS will improve as they play each other. These are the remaining games for those three teams.

Wesleyan:
Eastern Conn St - Win
Colby - Win
Conn College - believe a tie or win will help them stay where they are but a loss will drop them.

Hamilton:
Utica - Win
Trinity - Win

Bowdoin:
Amherst - Draw/Loss
Tufts - Draw/Loss

Based on these last remaining games, Bowdoin has a chance to pick up some quality ranked results vs Amherst and Tufts that could sneak them into the tournament. However, it will be very difficult to get results away at Amherst and Tufts. Looks like Bowdoin will be playing for their season these next two games. Hamilton has two easy remaining games that will certainly help their win percentage but not SOS. Hamilton will likely need to get a result or two in the NESCAC tournament in order to get into the Big Dance. Wesleyan is in a similar position to Hamilton where I think they might need a draw or win in the NESCAC quarterfinals (likely against Midd or Amherst). A win against Conn in their final game of the season would certainly help their case and I don't think a draw would hurt them.

Battle of the heavyweights today with Tufts making the trip to Amherst. I believe it will be a close contest where the presumed outcome is a draw. However, I'm going to have to take the Jumbos in this contest after losing the last two games to Amherst. Predicting a 2-1 victory for Tufts.

Thoughts on NESCAC week..

Middlebury vs Amherst: As expected, it was a close battle between two heavyweights. Amherst looked stronger, especially playing at home on their grass field, which can be challenging for Middlebury, a team more accustomed to turf. Credit to Middlebury for securing the equalizer in a moment that must sting for Amherst and could prove decisive in the final standings. The goal came from a well-placed cross and finish, and Middlebury nearly stole the win at the end. Both teams featured freshmen, which is uncommon in such high-stakes games—Amherst had three freshmen in the starting lineup.

Tufts vs Hamilton: This game was effectively decided within the first five minutes. Tufts came out strong, scoring early, and with their defense in top form, Hamilton never really posed a threat. Tufts added some quality second-half goals to secure a convincing road win in upstate New York. Liam Gerken had a good game, and it looks like the graduate student is now finding the back of the net more consistently than in previous seasons.

Conn vs Colby: Conn might be one of the most technically proficient teams in the NESCAC. Colby struggled to get into the game, as Conn remained well-organized and difficult to break down. If Conn aims to contend for the NESCAC title, they'll need to win key matchups against the top teams. It was great to see Scoffone return to the scoresheet for the Camels.

Trinity vs Williams: This one came down to the wire, with Williams finally edging out an uninspired Trinity team. Credit to Trinity for holding out as long as they did, but it felt like the goal was inevitable. The penalty decision seemed like the right call. Trinity may struggle to score a goal all season in the NESCAC. Williams, on the other hand, is hard to gauge—they nearly earned a result against Tufts, beat Amherst, lost to Hamilton, and barely scraped by Trinity. They seem like a young team still finding consistency.

Wesleyan vs Bates and vs Middlebury: Wesleyan started the season strongly, but the tie against Bates is one they'll regret. Wesleyan looked like the better team, but they couldn't capitalize on their chances. They aim to control possession and build off that to create opportunities, which almost paid off against Middlebury on Sunday, where the game swung back and forth. Credit to Middlebury for finding a late result in a tight contest. A single point from their doubleheader weekend isn't ideal for Wesleyan's hopes of breaking into the NESCAC's elite.

Trinity's prospects in the NESCAC look grim after the early results. A 2-0 loss to Bates and then a 5-0 loss to Wesleyan. Will they even score a goal in the NESCAC this year?

NESCAC DAY 1 Predictions:

Bowdoin 2 - 0 Colby
Both teams faced challenges in their opening out-of-conference games. However, based on their performances, Colby seems to be in a more precarious position, especially after the losses of key players Casanova and Cully. Bowdoin, on the other hand, returns the majority of their squad and had a strong showing last season. This leads me to favor Bowdoin in this matchup.

Middlebury 2 - 1 Hamilton
Middlebury retains most of their team from last year, with the notable exception of JSL. It will be interesting to see who steps into this role and contributes to their goal-scoring efforts. I believe it will take some time and a collective effort from multiple players rather than just one individual. Given Hamilton's recent struggles against Oswego State, I don't foresee them overcoming Middlebury in this contest.

Tufts 2 - 0 Williams
While winning at Williams is always a challenge, I believe Tufts will secure a victory on the road. With the experience of a team returning 10 starters, the Jumbos should be able to control the match. I anticipate a closely contested game for most of the duration, but expect Tufts to score and then add another as Williams pushes for an equalizer.

Amherst 1 - 1 Conn
These two teams are likely to be at the top of the NESCAC standings by November. With lingering tensions from their national championship encounter, it's difficult to envision either side securing a decisive victory. A late equalizer seems likely, resulting in a 1-1 draw.

Trinity 0 - 1 Bates
Trinity appears poised to face significant challenges this season, starting with this match. The loss of their best player, Donaldson, along with the graduation of several key seniors, will likely impact their performance. While Bates may not be significantly stronger, I expect them to have the upper hand in this contest, particularly on their home field in Lewiston.

I think we are blowing some of this out of proportion. The waving is just common sports antics and a classic reaction to a group of fans that have tormented you the entire game. They cross the line by grabbing the private parts and the coach joining in on the waves. While it's hilarious watching back, I'm sure both are looking back at this and regretting their decisions. Putting all the blame on Serpone for all of this is a stretch and not enough to warrant a suspension of coach Serpone.

Quote from: stlawus on November 18, 2023, 12:54:35 PM
Phenomenal no call by the ref at the end of the Tufts-WL game.   Tufts wanted a penalty and he sold it well, but on the replay he wasn't even touched.

Please get your eyes checked. I am not sure what game you were watching but that penalty was clear as day. I saw it live on the stream and rewatched it multiple times. He gets zero ball, if he had gotten any of the ball it would have changed direction. His cleat does not go under 11's leg, it goes right into him.

https://tuftsjumbocast.com/. Minute 3:17 of the game or 1:45:15 of youtube video, if you want to see it yourself.

Some Predictions for Sweet 16 games:

Amherst vs Occidental: Amherst 3-0
Middlebury vs Cortland: Middlebury 1-0

Ohio Northern vs Colorado College: Colorado College in penalties
Tufts vs Washington and Lee: Tufts 2-0

Mary Washington vs Wash College: Wash College in penalties
Conn College vs Montclaire State: 2-1 Conn College

Calvin vs Uchicago: Calvin 3-2
St Olaf vs Wis-Eau Claire: St Olaf 2-1

Quote from: Freddyfud on November 13, 2023, 07:02:16 PM
Came here to check on thoughts for the eventual winner of this thing.  Think I'll just stick to my instincts based on my limited time here: Nobody Ever Should Challenge Aforementioned Conference.

I haven't watched much of the bottom bracket, but I like Mary Washington and Middlebury up top to make the final 4.  For rounding sake I'll take ONU and Calvin?  And Mary Washington as the 2023 champion.

First and second rounds were very entertaining and saw some great individual and team performances.  Wish I had a couple more monitors (maybe next year.)

While Mary Washington has probably had the best season on paper of all the remaining teams, I just don't think they have what it takes to win a national championship. When November comes, certain teams crumble, and others prevail. While they have all the pieces to win it all, something tells me they won't.

Quote from: d4_Pace on November 13, 2023, 03:24:57 PM
And since I mentioned it... Those programs for me are Calvin, Chicago, Messiah, Amherst, and I am hoping Tufts can reestablish themselves at that level under Dezotell. The way I think about it is if you offered me those 5 versus the field at the beginning of the year to win it all I think it may be close to 50/50.

I agree with both of your points. Messiah is always a favorite when this tournament begins, and arguably had the best player in the country in McDonald (who was injured for the 2nd round game). However, after watching them play, I think there is no gap between them and the top 4 NESCAC teams. In terms of elite programs, I think that the top 5 is spot on.