The NPI dials also were set so that it doesn't matter at all if you win at home or win away. I know Emory's schedule the best so I'll use it as an example. Flew out west as usual, this time to Colorado College, played (now D2) UT-Dallas and won, then played CC at home in altitude the next day (dominated the match but still lost). The D2 win doesn't go into NPI and the loss is the same as losing at home. Back in the South, Emory had many more away matches than home matches. None of that travel helped the ranking at all. Unless the dials are changed, I am betting you will see teams that are in demand schedule a lot more home games.

Paul,

this year, most all of the UAA did poorly out of conference, this caused the Strength of schedule for UAA to fall across the board and then the in-conference games didn't carry any significance nationally.

the opposite was true for NESCAC, all did well out of conference so then they all are beating each other and getting bonuses for quality wins.

UAA needs to be better in the first part of the season if they hope to go another 20 years with getting multiple bids (last time with one bid was 2004).

Quote from: Kuiper on November 10, 2024, 07:14:20 PM

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 10, 2024, 07:07:24 PMPut a full bracket together...good luck to all tomorrow. Ended up with only 4 flights, but lots of 400-500 miles bus rides across the bracket. have fun, let me know how to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Pacific Lutheran will cry bloody murder if this bracketing becomes a reality.  It's one thing to fly.  It's quite another to fly and have to play with a three hour time difference.

Easy fix then, fly Pacific Lutheran to Trinity (San Antonio) and Bellhaven to Babson (Boston).

NESCAC with 8, Buffalo St. holds on, Mount Union out. Trinity in a top 8 protected seed.

Put a full bracket together...good luck to all tomorrow. Ended up with only 4 flights, but lots of 400-500 miles bus rides across the bracket. have fun, let me know how to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Making a bracket starts with putting the top 8 seeds so that they can make it to Elite 8 without meeting each other. That will make for some odd travel in the second weekend, 5 NESCAC in top 8, 2 Mid-Atlantic with JHU maybe dropping out (and adding another Northeast school, Babson), and one Midwest team (UW-Eau Claire).

Where do you put a Texas pod with Trinity? Seeds 8-16 have a bunch of midwest teams and not all will host so then you have some mid-atlantic teams next to be able to host.

What do you do with three Southern schools? fly Colorado College there again? make Emory and Oglethorpe play for a third time this year?

Depauw steals a bid in PK win over Denison. Mount Union projected out, Buffalo St. on the bubble.

oglethorpe won with 2:48 left, if it went to PK, Rhodes would have knocked Mount Union out.

Hamilton, Hope, Buffalo St. and Mount Union are last four in.

York, Oglethorpe, Covenant, and VA Wesleyan are last four out.

Oglethorpe plays today against Rhodes. Winner in, loser out it seems.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Edited - I was mistaken, GrizDad below is correct. Bids can be stolen if Mary Washington or Trinity (TX) lose. Muhlenberg and Denison already are holding an at-large bid so it's not a "stolen" bid but his point about who to root for is accurate as well.

Muhlenberg can lose tomorrow and fall out. Otherwise, it all comes down to the NPI calculations tomorrow. These six teams seem like the six that are on the edge. VA Wesleyan may be a real long shot though.

York 56.387
Covenant 56.358
Mount Union 56.356

Hope 55.919
Hamilton 55.846
VA Wesleyan 55.392

Rhodes/Oglethorpe is now a must-win game for each tomorrow.

Who knows, maybe some ripple from a Sunday final will change the numbers and move teams in and out, but I think tomorrow's NPI will be close to the final 64.

CCIW final is causing more bubble headache.. North Central (83) winning over North Park (19) 2-0 with 30 mins left and North Park is down a man. North Park will get an at-large for sure.

If this holds....Mount Union becomes the last team in at #30. The bubble line was around 39-40 at the start of the day.

Mount Union - 30
Covenant - 29
York - 27

All lost and will drop tomorrow. Hope, Hamilton, and VA Wesleyan are on the other side of the line right now.

another bubble popped....Otterbein beats Mount Union. Mount Union had a shot in the middle of the box with one second left that was saved by Otterbein keeper.

Teams that lost today and have to see how far they fall tomorrow - York (PA), Covenant, and Mount Union

Otterbein up 1-0 on Mount Union at half....another bubble may be popped in the next hour.

Mount Union would be in that York/Covenant group that lost today and hopes they don't fall out.

There will be enough teams in the tourney to do a Midwest quadrant with four pods and may even have to fly a team out of the midwest. So far, Gustavous Adolphus and UW Eau Claire were the seeds high enough to anchor the quadrant, but losses have changed that a bit. First thing NCAA does is put the top 8 seeds apart from each other, it's important to be in that top 8.

York and Covenant are going to be real close to dropping out of at-large berths. Oglethorpe and VA Wesleyan dropped out today when those first two lost. I looked at some other semifinal losers and they drop .4-.5 NPI points. If York and Covenant have the same effect, they will be right around Hope, Hamilton, Oglethorpe, VA Wesleyan.

Tonight's matches can change it as well.