Ah, I see Easygoer has achieved the rare high accolade of Guest status. If you're ever in the neighborhood again please come back and knock the ball around for a bit.

With this edition I hope the viewers actually watch the first 3 minutes of qualifiers instead of perhaps skipping to the results.  Question on qualifier #4: do you view the results as where the teams are today or rather at a point in the future, say, at the end of this season?  Do you consider factors such as the the upcoming schedules, injuries, talent maturity, or, I don't know, the climate?

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Quote from: Freddyfud on September 18, 2024, 11:42:25 AMWith this edition I hope the viewers actually watch the first 3 minutes of qualifiers instead of perhaps skipping to the results.  Question on qualifier #4: do you view the results as where the teams are today or rather at a point in the future, say, at the end of this season?  Do you consider factors such as the the upcoming schedules, injuries, talent maturity, or, I don't know, the climate?

Interesting question @FreddyFud.  Not sure.  Any future casting I may be doing is to get some line of sight to where they could be, especially for teams I am not sure of.  I am going to ramble on this to think this through ...

So lets take Dickinson as an example.  Currently at 6-0.  Beat Messiah, which MAY NOT be as big a deal say if they beat them last year.  I have questions around their sustainability over the season, so I look to the next two weeks and do some sore of mental projection around where they can be in terms of a trajectory.  So I see thy play Goucher today... which the should win... then go to Washington.  Based on where Washington is at I am thinking they could get a result, even if it is a tie.  Washington is showing they can defend.  They are then at Stevenson, which they should win, then they welcome Muhlenberg and Gettysburg.  This is the toughest stretch of the season for them thus far.  At least until the play Swarthmore, F&M, Ursinus and Hopkins. to close out the regular season.

All that said, in my head I am thinking, for a new comer to the Top 25, at 6-0, if I am going to consider them as serious, I would at least expect them to be at 8-0-1 by the time they play Muhlenberg.  If they are able to get to that point, then I think I can have more conviction  in where I am ranking them.  Right now I have them at 24th. They get to that 8-0-1 then I can see them in the teens.  Where depends on everything other team.

What I don't want to do, and where I think the other polls may not capture, I am legitimately trying to capture who I think the best programs are during the season.  That's why I can be a bit more forgiving when a team like Amherst loses a game.  The one loss to Williams doesn't change the fact that I think they are good program.  That's an obvious example that no one will argue with.  Conversely, Covenant who I thought looked interesting, lost to Rhodes, tied Sewanee, and just got thumped by Oglethorpe.  Well, that tells me they aren't a Top 25 team, although I was willing to consider them.

I wish I could have more of a real methodology... would help me sort these things out in a more timely manner.  But alas, I don't.

Not sure if any of this made sense, but if anything.... you have a scary glimpse into my mind.

SC.

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

And that analysis, while more in depth than I did, was why I called out Dickinson in the USC rankings. The Messiah win is WAY overrated when you put it in the proper context.

Even if Messiah rights the ship, in the current context, it is not as huge of a win as it normally is. Which means the win of Salisbury, again in the current context, is a solid win... But it really shouldn't launch the Red Devils into Top 5 territory.

With that said, they are ranked #7 in Massey. (Messiah dropped 29 slots and sit at #32.)

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

I find Massey to be a little too volatile when it comes to soccer.  Smaller sample size just makes it too prone to overcorrect and overreact to results. 

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

I do rely on Massey for records, schedules.  Everything on one site.  Going to every college site just takes for ever.

SC.

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 02:35:06 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

I do rely on Massey for records, schedules.  Everything on one site.  Going to every college site just takes for ever.

SC.

There's a reason you're not ComplicatedCoach.

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

The Eastern Illinois game was a "countable game" for Eastern Illinois, because DI teams start the regular season earlier, but a scrimmage for the University of Chicago, because it took place before Aug. 30th.  Massey's algorithms apparently didn't take that into account (probably because it doesn't happen that often that D1 plays D3 before the D3 season starts but after the D1 season begins).

Quote from: Kuiper on September 18, 2024, 03:43:08 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

The Eastern Illinois game was a "countable game" for Eastern Illinois, because DI teams start the regular season earlier, but a scrimmage for the University of Chicago, because it took place before Aug. 30th.  Massey's algorithms apparently didn't take that into account (probably because it doesn't happen that often that D1 plays D3 before the D3 season starts but after the D1 season begins).

Interesting. Anyone have Ken's number so he can update the algos? 

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 03:45:20 PM

Quote from: Kuiper on September 18, 2024, 03:43:08 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

The Eastern Illinois game was a "countable game" for Eastern Illinois, because DI teams start the regular season earlier, but a scrimmage for the University of Chicago, because it took place before Aug. 30th.  Massey's algorithms apparently didn't take that into account (probably because it doesn't happen that often that D1 plays D3 before the D3 season starts but after the D1 season begins).

Interesting. Anyone have Ken's number so he can update the algos? 

Just email him.  I've done it before and he responds quickly and makes the necessary changes.

Quote from: stlawus on September 18, 2024, 02:24:39 PMI find Massey to be a little too volatile when it comes to soccer.  Smaller sample size just makes it too prone to overcorrect and overreact to results.

I do get that StLawus, but when it comes to trying to do weekly tipping, I find it very handy, not that my scores thus far reflect that.  At least we know the algorithm has its particular bias, but it's calculations are mechanical.  Perhaps ChatGPT can spit out it's top 25 also, goodness knows where it might source that prognostication from.

Quote from: stlawus on September 18, 2024, 03:48:09 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 03:45:20 PM

Quote from: Kuiper on September 18, 2024, 03:43:08 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 02:22:36 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 01:00:26 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on September 18, 2024, 12:48:08 PM

Quote from: SimpleCoach on September 18, 2024, 08:58:00 AMWeek Two.

The SC Men's Top 25

Enjoy.

SC.

Great job as always! I noticed both this week and last week you had Chicago listed with 2 losses, but the results on their website show they only have 1 loss?

Arrggg.  Just updated.

Looks like Massey also has them with 2 losses and the other L is v. D1 Eastern Illinois. Not sure if that counts as part of the regular season record or if it's an exhibition, but that's probably where you got the 2 Ls from.

The Eastern Illinois game was a "countable game" for Eastern Illinois, because DI teams start the regular season earlier, but a scrimmage for the University of Chicago, because it took place before Aug. 30th.  Massey's algorithms apparently didn't take that into account (probably because it doesn't happen that often that D1 plays D3 before the D3 season starts but after the D1 season begins).

Interesting. Anyone have Ken's number so he can update the algos? 

Just email him.  I've done it before and he responds quickly and makes the necessary changes.

From Massey:
"I defer to the D1 team in a case like this."

Not entirely sure what that means, but oh well.