Great article on the front about Wartburg.

https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2022/wartburg-wasnt-right-time-to-leave

The sidebar has a list on the teams that made it to the Semis in the 17 years of the 32-team bracket.

I have assembled the list by Conference.

OAC 17 (UMU 16 JCU 1, the year that JCU won the OAC).
WIAC 16 (UWW 13 UWO 3)
ASC 9 (all UMHB)
MIAC 6 (Tommies 3, BU 2 Johnnies 1)
Wesley 6 (ACFC 3, Independent 2 or NJAC)
CCIW 5 (NCC 4, Wheaton 1)
NWC 3 (all Linfield)
Centennial 2 (JHU 1, Mules 1)
E8 2 (Brockport 1, SJF 1)
NJAC 2* (Rowan, Wesley*)
ARC 1 (Wartburg)

When you look at those semi-finalists, you see:

1) The OAC bracket (17 years)
2) The WIAC bracket (16 years)
3) A west bracket (ASC, NWC, MIAC; 9 + 3 + 6 = 18 teams)
4) The "Everybody Else Bracket", especially when Wesley would knock off everybody to the south and east of the other 3 brackets.


This year, Wartburg won the "WIAC" braket.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 09, 2022, 01:40:51 PM
Great article on the front about Wartburg.

https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2022/wartburg-wasnt-right-time-to-leave

The sidebar has a list on the teams that made it to the Semis in the 17 years of the 32-team bracket.

I have assembled the list by Conference.

OAC 17 (UMU 16 JCU 1, the year that JCU won the OAC).
WIAC 16 (UWW 13 UWO 3)
ASC 9 (all UMHB)
MIAC 6 (Tommies 3, BU 2 Johnnies 1)
Wesley 6 (ACFC 3, Independent 2 or NJAC)
CCIW 5 (NCC 4, Wheaton 1)
NWC 3 (all Linfield)
Centennial 2 (JHU 1, Mules 1)
E8 2 (Brockport 1, SJF 1)
NJAC 2* (Rowan, Wesley*)
ARC 1 (Wartburg)

When I read the list, I see:

Mount Union 16
Whitewater 13
UMHB 9
.....
Everyone else.


North Central charging hard but has some serious ground to make up.

The 2024 NCAA pre-championship manual is out, containing NPI weights and more.

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 09, 2024, 08:33:50 AMThe 2024 NCAA pre-championship manual is out, containing NPI weights and more.

The big thing here is it finally lays out when they will put out rankings: Oct. 28, Nov. 4, Nov. 11 and Nov. 17 (selection show)

Of course, we've been running our unofficial NPI numbers each week and will continue to do so here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Pie in the sky request:

I love the craziness of a three-way one-loss tie at the top of a conference (Team A beats Team B, Team B beats Team C, Team C beats Team A) but I love knowing the outcome of it as I'm watching. Can fans share their conference's three-way tie break scenarios?

If the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs.  While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs.  If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?

Quote from: Captainred81 on October 21, 2024, 03:12:35 PMIf the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs.  While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs.  If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?

That's the way I am reading this new system, yes. If you look at current NPI rankings it lines up very close to win %. Very few 2 loss teams ahead of any 1 loss teams. HansenRatings has modeled out the remainder of the season on his site and has Pool C %'s listed. Important to remember that besides the emphasis on win %, the "minimum 5 wins" isn't an entry to the field criteria, it's that NPI is calculated on the 5 "best" wins from a 10 game schedule (or 9 game) so that as teams get 6,7,8 games deep their "bad" wins drop off in favor of "good wins" if applicable. So NPI is very dynamic and will change potentially dramatically over the last few weeks of the season.

Quote from: USee on October 21, 2024, 04:39:46 PM

Quote from: Captainred81 on October 21, 2024, 03:12:35 PMIf the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs.  While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs.  If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?

That's the way I am reading this new system, yes. If you look at current NPI rankings it lines up very close to win %. Very few 2 loss teams ahead of any 1 loss teams. HansenRatings has modeled out the remainder of the season on his site and has Pool C %'s listed. Important to remember that besides the emphasis on win %, the "minimum 5 wins" isn't an entry to the field criteria, it's that NPI is calculated on the 5 "best" wins from a 10 game schedule (or 9 game) so that as teams get 6,7,8 games deep their "bad" wins drop off in favor of "good wins" if applicable. So NPI is very dynamic and will change potentially dramatically over the last few weeks of the season.

Maybe just a minor clarification to the line I bolded above but if your sixth win helps your NPI, it will be included. For teams that finish undefeated, their NPI will certainly be calculated based on their five best wins. For teams that have one ore more loss, it may be five wins that are kept but also could be more. It just depends on where that line is that counting additional wins would hurt their NPI.

I have a question for clarification:

The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".

Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.

How is that handled under the new system?  Thanks.

So teams like those in the PAC that could all tie at 9-1, will be looked upon more favorably than say LAX or Whitewater who will have 2 D3 losses at least. 

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:

The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".

Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.

How is that handled under the new system?  Thanks.

an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all.  At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools.  Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.

Quote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:

The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".

Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.

How is that handled under the new system?  Thanks.

an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all.  At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools.  Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.

I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).

Quote from: lmitzel on October 22, 2024, 02:38:27 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:

The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".

Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.

How is that handled under the new system?  Thanks.

an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all.  At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools.  Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.

I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/committees/d3/champs/D3CC_NPIWeights.pdf

Quote from: lmitzel on October 22, 2024, 02:38:27 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on October 22, 2024, 11:58:11 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2024, 11:32:57 AMI have a question for clarification:

The thing that we "long-in-the-tooth" D3 fans will miss about the previous criteria will be the "Results against the Regionally Ranked opponents".

Linfield goes to HSU and or UMHB goes the UWW and the visitor loses by 1, (or even 10/05/2024 at #7 HSU 35, #12Endicott 27). Home field advantage is usually 3-4 points. A committee would look favorably on the result of the losing team.

How is that handled under the new system?  Thanks.

an away loss counts as .9 of a loss and a loss at home counts as 1.1 of a loss....margin of victory is not accounted for at all.  At least, this is my understanding of it. Endicott for instance Adjusted Wins are listed as 5.0 and their adjusted losses at listed as .9. Oshkosh by comparison, is 4-1 against D3 schools.  Their adj wins are 3.6 and their adjusted losses are .9. i do not know how the weighting of each category is applied however.

I think I saw somewhere in the past couple days that the weighting is 40% to win percentage and 60% to SOS or something like that, but I don't remember where that was exactly. (Basketball, as a point of comparison, I think was 25-75).

That's correct and to hear the D3Datacast guys describe it that's a big difference between basketball and football because its very hard for the SOS part to overcome the win% number which has the effect of ordering teams by win% and then by SOS within that. So the undefeated teams will be ordered by SOS and the 1 loss teams as well, etc. SOS most likely won't be high enough to allow a 2 loss team to get ranked ahead of a 1 loss team because of this weighting.