With the Trinity win over Berry, I wonder how close TLU is the playoff bubble.

They entered the week in the 23rd spot among Pool C teams. Tomorrow morning you can check out D3 Datacast and see what they have:
https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

After this week's update, they are the first team out.  The teams remaining on the schedule won't make things better so they will need some help (and hope not to be leapfrogged).

Exactly. And it may not seem like much, but if TLU can beat both Centenary and Southwestern, it would allow the Bulldogs to drop both wins against Lyon (the lowest ranked team they have played this season), thus improving their NPI by a small amount. When it comes down to the final spot or two for Pool C, that slight improvement could make a significant difference.

The NPI has TLU as the #13 Pool C team, the 1st team outside the Pool.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Disappointing that TLU is currently on the outside looking in but not unexpected. Even if TLU wins out, TLU will probably need some help to get on the other side of that line of demarcation. TLU can only do what it can and that is winning their three remaining games (hosting Lyons, at Centenary and hosting Southwestern).  Three games TLU should win but they need to come prepared, focused and with the same effort they have exhibited the past two weeks.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 27, 2024, 09:01:38 PMThe NPI has TLU as the #13 Pool C team, the 1st team outside the Pool.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Now we start looking for bubble-buster games.

The Mass-Dartmouth /Western Connecticut with WestCon winning might be a bubble buster for TLU.

1-loss TLU is most likely fine.  If you're looking around at games that could influence TLU's position, I'd start with any scenarios where conference championships are coming down to an undefeated team vs. a 1-loss team.  You'll want those undefeated teams to win and pin a second loss on as many teams as possible.  So, Whitworth beating Linfield is a win for TLU.  UMD beating WestConn is a win for TLU.  Marietta losing their last two at UMU and JCU is good for TLU.  Salisbury beating TCNJ is good for TLU.  DePauw beating Wabash is good for TLU but bad for the universe, so choose your poison there.  But those are the kinds of games you'll want to watch over the next few weeks.

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2024, 01:51:13 PM1-loss TLU is most likely fine.  If you're looking around at games that could influence TLU's position, I'd start with any scenarios where conference championships are coming down to an undefeated team vs. a 1-loss team.  You'll want those undefeated teams to win and pin a second loss on as many teams as possible.  So, Whitworth beating Linfield is a win for TLU.  UMD beating WestConn is a win for TLU.  Marietta losing their last two at UMU and JCU is good for TLU.  Salisbury beating TCNJ is good for TLU.  DePauw beating Wabash is good for TLU but bad for the universe, so choose your poison there.  But those are the kinds of games you'll want to watch over the next few weeks.

The objectivity of the selection process lets us focus more directly on these "bubble" games. I appreciate your assessment (we SCAC fans read optimism) in your comment.

It will be fun!

Logan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 28, 2024, 02:45:35 PMLogan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

Yeah, and I remember last November that Auburn had a 99% chance of winning against Alabama with Alabama 4th down and goal at the 31...

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 28, 2024, 02:45:35 PMLogan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

These stats always make me nervous. What is his criteria for calculating those percentages? We will see how it all plays out. TLU needs to win, plain and simple. Whether that is enough, I hope so but I don't know so.

If you listen to the podcast, you know

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 28, 2024, 04:40:43 PM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 28, 2024, 02:45:35 PMLogan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

Yeah, and I remember last November that Auburn had a 99% chance of winning against Alabama with Alabama 4th down and goal at the 31...

And would have won if not for making possibly the stupidest defensive play call in football history.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 28, 2024, 06:13:01 PMIf you listen to the podcast, you know

Touche!