https://www.boston.com/news/the-boston-globe/2024/10/19/amid-declining-enrollment-brandeis-is-in-an-intensifying-budget-crunch/?s_campaign=bcom%3Asocialflow%3Afacebook&utm_campaign=bdc_Facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawGArddleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHbSbRFSDd6pDTc4vU0Q2Zc0XaLBH2JiU2kT_NzSATFD7Clu9KDyVt8CFyg_aem_5rRcJ672Lm9KKZZKk6M1_A

CWRU Roster https://athletics.case.edu/sports/mens-basketball/roster
CWRU making use of new numbers allowed by NCAA

University Athletic Association

1. Washington University
2. Emory
3. NYU
4. Brandeis
5. Carnegie Mellon
5. Case Western Reserve (tie)
7. UChicago
8. Rochester

I missed the opportunity to beat the UAA to the preseason poll while waiting for the rosters to be updated, but I feel certain my picks would have looked something like this.

Case Western Reserve being the hardest to place among the teams.

Had the opportunity to watch NYU scrimmage Stevens on Saturday. Some notes on NYU: They are definitely a deeper team than last year's team, and definitely a different look as there was much more ball movement and obviously less dependency on one player (with Freedman gone). Starting five consisted of 4 grad students (Stone, How, Susko and Onuama) and 1 senior (Freeney). So, an average age of 23+ in the starting five with a ton of experience and talent. The players on NYU that stood out the most to me were How (who looked great and was NYU's best player in this game), Susko, and Stone. Soph Sanders off the bench is a great weapon, grad transfer Oyigbo brings great energy and athleticism, and soph big man Sigurdsson looks like he is ready to be a regular in the rotation. Clark was in sweats and did not play, but we know he brings great energy and athleticism as well. The addition of How (at 6'7") and Susko (at 6'5"), along with possible emergence of Sigurdsson (at 6'10") give them much more interior options on offense than last year as Onuama and Clark are really more of defensive players for NYU. It will be interesting to see how they gel as a team, and how their rotation shapes up. I would say they definitely have the talent to compete for the UAA title it may just be a matter of everyone buying in and embracing their role on the team.

Quote from: Stretch4 on November 03, 2024, 11:00:18 PMHad the opportunity to watch NYU scrimmage Stevens on Saturday. Some notes on NYU: They are definitely a deeper team than last year's team, and definitely a different look as there was much more ball movement and obviously less dependency on one player (with Freedman gone). Starting five consisted of 4 grad students (Stone, How, Susko and Onuama) and 1 senior (Freeney). So, an average age of 23+ in the starting five with a ton of experience and talent. The players on NYU that stood out the most to me were How (who looked great and was NYU's best player in this game), Susko, and Stone. Soph Sanders off the bench is a great weapon, grad transfer Oyigbo brings great energy and athleticism, and soph big man Sigurdsson looks like he is ready to be a regular in the rotation. Clark was in sweats and did not play, but we know he brings great energy and athleticism as well. The addition of How (at 6'7") and Susko (at 6'5"), along with possible emergence of Sigurdsson (at 6'10") give them much more interior options on offense than last year as Onuama and Clark are really more of defensive players for NYU. It will be interesting to see how they gel as a team, and how their rotation shapes up. I would say they definitely have the talent to compete for the UAA title it may just be a matter of everyone buying in and embracing their role on the team.

 OTOH, how did Stevens look?

Congratulations to Coach Wingen and his 400th career victory. Justin Allen had 30 in the win vs. Chatham.

https://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/mbkb/2024-25/releases/20241113wsmz7g

Tartans also did a nice job holding off a very experienced Laroche team to get the first win at the Highmark Center.

Massey rankings have the UAA as the top conference in D3.  The individual schools are:

Emory - 1
NYU - 5
Wash U - 14
Brandeis - 31
Carnegie - 36
Rochester - 69
Chicago - 93
Case - 95

Justin Allen had 50 points for Carnegie today in an overtime win over Dickinson. Allen went 9-13 for three pointers and was perfect in seven free throws. I'm not sure if that is a UAA record but the record for most points in a conference game is 49.  Not so good, is Dickenson taking Carnegie into OT.  Dickenson has won only four games this year and their wins have come against teams with a combined record of five wins for the year.

Quote from: Ole Ollie 76 on January 06, 2025, 04:06:40 PMJustin Allen had 50 points for Carnegie today in an overtime win over Dickinson. Allen went 9-13 for three pointers and was perfect in seven free throws. I'm not sure if that is a UAA record but the record for most points in a conference game is 49.  Not so good, is Dickenson taking Carnegie into OT.  Dickenson has won only four games this year and their wins have come against teams with a combined record of five wins for the year.

It seems that Union, Drew, and Dickinson have given our UAA men's basketball teams fits this week on how to handle them.   Fortunately, Emory, NYU, and Carnegie Mellon won those respective home games over the past week.  Coming into yesterday's game, Dickinson's NCAA Power Index (NPI) rating was only 2 points lower than CWRU's.  As of this morning's D3Datacast NPI run, which includes the results from yesterday's games, Dickinson's NPI is unofficially at 45.597 (#292 in DIII), while Case Western Reserve's men's NPI is 47.246 (#252 in DIII, last among UAA teams).   The threshold for teams to get a quality win bonus is to defeat a team with an NPI greater than 53.   Carnegie Mellon's NPI as of this morning is 59.964 (#30 in DIII) according to D3DataCast.   The NPI for our Brandeis Judges currently is unofficially at 59.582 (#31 in DIII, according to D3DataCast.)

At the end of all regular season and conference tournament play, the 21 at large bids will go to the top 21 nationally rated in the NCAA Power Index national table who did not win their automatic bids.  Had the NCAA Power Index rating system been used to pick teams in 2022, Brandeis would have gotten an at-large bid.  Consequentially, had the NPI rating system been used to pick teams last year, Carnegie Mellon would have been the first team out.

NYU comes into Saturday in the "pole position" among UAA teams rated in the unofficial NPI table with an unofficial NPI of 64.967 (#3 in DIII).

The NCAA will not start releasing NPI national table rankings until next month, but D3Datacast's unofficial system is accurate enough to have the same authoritative weight as the NPI numbers being run by USCHO for the College Hockey selections for DIII, (College hockey was the first sport to use this NPI system "formerly known as PairWise" to make at-large picks.) 

It is unfortunate that because the D3DataCast computer did not pick the UAA men's race among the top 10 tightest men's conference races to watch this season, according to the D3Datacast Episode 100, D3 Nation never got a chance to see how the D3Datacast computer weighed the chances of Emory, NYU and Wash U to either win the UAA regular season title outright or be a UAA co-champion through 1,000 simulations of the 14 game conference race.

Last year, the UAA race went down to the final day, and it ended with NYU and Case Western Reserve University each getting to unfurl UAA championship banners after the games concluded-- NYU unfurled their UAA championship banner after their win at Brandeis, while CWRU unfurled theirs on the Horsburgh Gym home court after they beat Carnegie Mellon.

I was trying to ask that question on X yesterday, but I got an answer to a different question instead-- the one that I already could have found out through published D3DataCast info on team efficiency.

Instead,the D3Datacast simulations of the UAA conference race remains unpublished because it did not crack the top 10.   I would have been interested in where the race stacked among the best of the remaining 33 DIII leagues.    The UAA women's race will not really be a race this season, as the only question there is will NYU go 14-0 again, and if so, by how many points a game will the NYU women dominate?

I would hate to find out that there was a greater than 75% chance of a UAA men's champion winning by 2 or more games this season, but I can take the findings-- the title is determined on the basketball court.

Yesterday, the D3Datacast computer published results of 100 simulations of each of the D3 men's basketball conference races, and it is now published on each conference's NPI sheet.

These chances of winning the AQ and at-large bids are as of Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 at 5:46 PM ET.--  According to D3DataCast--

1.)  NYU men unofficially has a 78% chance of winning the AQ this time (either as UAA champion or UAA co-champion via tiebreaker).  NYU has a 100% chance as of today of being in the field, as the Violets are predicted to definitely have an at-large bid if they do not win the AQ. 

NYU men also have a 100% chance of finishing with an NPI in the top 8 according to D3DataCast.

2.)  Emory men unofficially has a 15% chance of winning the AQ (either as UAA champion or as UAA Co-Champion via tiebreaker).  Emory men have a 100% chance as of today of being in the field-- as the Eagles are predicted to get an at-large if they don't win the AQ.   Emory has a 65% chance of finishing with an NPI in the national top 8 according to D3Datacast.

3.)  Wash U men unofficially has a 6% chance of winning the AQ (most likely as a UAA co-champion and winning it on the tiebreaker if it happens.)  Wash U has a 97% chance of getting an at-large bid if needed and being in the field, however.  However, Wash U only has a 29% chance of finishing with an NPI in the top 8 of DIII.

4.) Brandeis men unofficially has a 1% chance of winning the AQ (most likely as a UAA co-champion via tiebreaker, which would be okay, as the Judges have never won a UAA title in men's hoop since the founding of the UAA in 1987.)  The Judges have a 51% chance of clinching an at-large bid this season according to D3Datacast.  However, Brandeis only has a 3% chance of finishing with an NPI in the top 8 of DIII.

5.)  Chicago men will not get the AQ, but have a 42% chance of getting an at-large bid this season.

6.)  Carnegie Mellon men will not get the AQ, but have an 18% chance of getting an at-large bid this season, according to D3Datacast.

7.)  Rochester and CWRU are just playing out the 14 game UAA schedule this season, hoping to see how many UAA wins they can get this year, and maybe be a factor in determining who wins the UAA.  The chances of CWRU repeating as UAA champion are gone, according to D3Datacast.

Now I understand why the UAA was not picked among the 10 tightest races in DIII men's basketball this season.

If I could legally bet on this I would put my money on Emory or WashU winning the league.

The D3Datacast Computer NCAA D3 tournament predictions have been updated as of Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025 at 8:57 AM ET.  The computer predictions now are based on a run of 1,000 season simulations.  These runs of 1,000 season simulations were used earlier this week to reveal the top 10 tighest conference races.

The UAA up to date D3 NCAA tournament predictions based on 1,000 season simulations can be found at:  http://d3datacast.com/conference-ratings/UAA

For what it is worth, I took a look at the D3Datacast's 1,000 simulation run of the UAA men's basketball race given info available as of yesterday morning-- January 9, 2025, at 8:57 AM ET, when the results of the run were published.

Yesterday's simulation run predicted that 1 AQ and 3.03 at large bids would eventually be given to UAA men's teams at the end of the season, based on DIII play so far.  Keep in mind that the UAA race begins on Saturday, so the paths can radically change once UAA conference games are played.

It will be interesting to see a new simulation run of the same UAA title race once the first 2 weekends of UAA play are completed, but as we get to the start of the UAA race, here is what the simulations show about who will win the AQ either outright or as co-champion via tiebreaker.

Out of 1,000 simulations of the 2024-25 UAA men's basketball season that were run yesterday, according to the D3Datacast computer--

1.)  NYU won the AQ in 846 simulations.
2.)  Emory won the AQ in 99 simulations.
3.)  Wash U won the AQ in 50 simulations.

And in the Lloyd Christmas tradition of "So you think there's a chance?" to quote the character from the Dumb and Dumber movies--

4.)  Brandeis won the AQ in 3 simulations. (Brandeis has never won a UAA championship or co-championship in basketball.)

5.)  Chicago won the AQ in 2 simulations.

The D3DataCast computer also predicts that NYU, Emory, and Wash U will be in the NCAA DIII tournament either by AQ or at-large bid at the end of the season, with Brandeis, Chicago, and Carnegie Mellon having chances to join those teams in the field.

For Rochester and CWRU, the main question will be how many UAA games can they win this season.

For those of you following the UAA men's basketball season live this season and next, there is a change in the start times of the games.   Traditionally, the men have gone second on travel partner days (Saturday UAA games), second on Friday nights and first on Sunday afternoons.  That situation is reversed for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons.   Tomorrow, as well as on the final day of conference play, the men will start first.  That means that tips tomorrow for the men are scheduled for 1 PM local time.   

Once we get to the Friday/Sunday weekends, the men's teams will play first on Fridays at 5:30 PM local time, followed by the women.   On Sundays, the men's teams will play second-- after the women.  Once again, this will be the situation for this season and next-- after which we will then go back to the traditional start times for the next 2 following seasons, and so on and so forth from this point forward. 

Per the UAA Code of Conduct-- New Game Uniform policy

On travel partner days, the home team will wear the white uniforms and the away team will wear the dark uniforms, per usual.

On Friday/Sunday weekends-- the white uniforms will be the home uniforms for Friday games and the road uniforms for Sunday games.

The dark uniforms will be the away uniforms for Friday games and the home uniforms for Sunday games.