Um, I was looking at the wrong week . . .

Quote from: jknezek on October 31, 2024, 01:21:34 PM

Quote from: nunezfan27 on October 31, 2024, 01:19:27 PMI'm a little confused as to what vAbove & vBelow shows. Could anyone give a brief explanation?

vAbove is wins over teams above you in NPI, vBelow is wins over teams below you in NPI. The question I have is when is the team above or below. When the game is played, or when each NPI is calculated.

Looks to me that it's based on when the NPI is calculated.

Quote from: paclassic89 on October 30, 2024, 02:43:17 PMVery big if on them being able to knock off Tufts at Bello.  They have 0 quality wins so far this season

They almost did it Tuesday! That was a tight game and a lot of goals!

Quote from: jknezek on October 31, 2024, 01:21:34 PM

Quote from: nunezfan27 on October 31, 2024, 01:19:27 PMI'm a little confused as to what vAbove & vBelow shows. Could anyone give a brief explanation?

vAbove is wins over teams above you in NPI, vBelow is wins over teams below you in NPI. The question I have is when is the team above or below. When the game is played, or when each NPI is calculated.

This would be after each NPI is calculated.

NPI updated thru 10/30 matches

Stupid question probably, but do conference playoff games count towards NPI?  If not and considering that some still played reg. season games this weekend, will this week's NPI be the last?

Thanks from a confused person.

Yes, all games factor into NPI as the final selections are made after conference tournaments conclude.

New NPI out

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/39955?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit

what will the cutoff be for the at large bids be in the NPI? Somewhere in the 30's?

Quote from: kansas hokie on October 30, 2024, 12:39:25 AMNew NPI is out - NPI (switch to games after 10/27)

Here's a list of who would be in for at-large if EVERY conference bid went to highest ranked team which won't happen. Right now the bubble team is #41 Muhlenberg.

Washington and Lee, Oglethorpe, and Messiah would not get an at-large bid if they don't win the conference tourney according to today's rankings. More changes to come in future weeks, but fun to consider if it was today.

Largest NPI jump from last week...Emory up to 72 after sitting at 130 last week, two wins helps it seems.

NESCAC with 7 bids and up to 5 hosts. Wow, had 8 last week but Bowdoin dropped to 44.

NPI as of 10/27 - if you see a conference name, that's the highest ranked team in that conference. Numbers are the total number of at-large bids used in that section before a new conference shows up. These are the conferences that the lower at-large teams need the highest team to win.

I posted this in the summer, but it bears repeating as teams consider whether they will host.

QuoteNCAA Bylaw 31.3.5.1 (b) – Executive Regulations – Selection of
Teams and Individuals for Championships Participation –
Selection Decisions of Sport Committees – Pairings and Site
Selection – Protecting Top-Seeded Teams.

Management Council. The council approved a waiver of Bylaw 31.3.5.1 (b) that requires geographic proximity (i.e., the competition site is within 500 miles of the institution) to take precedent over seeding when constructing a championship bracket. The waiver allows flexibility for sport committees to ensure that top seeded teams do not face each other in the early rounds of championships. The waiver applies for up to two years to allow time for the impact of the change to be implemented and assessed.

Translation: Where top schools are densely grouped, the geographic proximity rule has required top seeded teams to play each other early on, which makes for groups of death and easier groups.  This waiver means that schools in the NESCAC or NCAC, for instance, may be shifted more than 500 miles outside of their region because there are too many top seeded teams under the NPI from those conferences.  That may help those teams by playing weaker teams, but it may hurt if they have to travel farther (especially if they have to play in different time zones) with different refs/conditions/etc.  So, I could see fewer hosts from NESCAC, especially since they have the most top seeds, rather than more, to avoid top seeds playing each other.

It probably depends upon what they mean by "top seeds" playing each other.  if it's just the top couple of seeds, this will only affect a few teams.  If it's the top 10-15 seeds or more, it would have more disruptive effects.

I put together a hypothetical bracket (with no adjustments) using today's NPI, will be easy to update as NPI changes. Let me know how to make it better. Thanks!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

Looks like back to 8 teams for NESCAC. 16 hosts overall - hard to imagine NESCAC getting more than 2 host locations the first weekend. Maybe Montclair/Dickinson, JHU, UMW, Gustavus, Kenyon, Colorado/Trinity as others

Quote from: Kuiper on November 04, 2024, 11:13:40 AMI posted this in the summer, but it bears repeating as teams consider whether they will host.

QuoteNCAA Bylaw 31.3.5.1 (b) – Executive Regulations – Selection of
Teams and Individuals for Championships Participation –
Selection Decisions of Sport Committees – Pairings and Site
Selection – Protecting Top-Seeded Teams.

Management Council. The council approved a waiver of Bylaw 31.3.5.1 (b) that requires geographic proximity (i.e., the competition site is within 500 miles of the institution) to take precedent over seeding when constructing a championship bracket. The waiver allows flexibility for sport committees to ensure that top seeded teams do not face each other in the early rounds of championships. The waiver applies for up to two years to allow time for the impact of the change to be implemented and assessed.

Translation: Where top schools are densely grouped, the geographic proximity rule has required top seeded teams to play each other early on, which makes for groups of death and easier groups.  This waiver means that schools in the NESCAC or NCAC, for instance, may be shifted more than 500 miles outside of their region because there are too many top seeded teams under the NPI from those conferences.  That may help those teams by playing weaker teams, but it may hurt if they have to travel farther (especially if they have to play in different time zones) with different refs/conditions/etc.  So, I could see fewer hosts from NESCAC, especially since they have the most top seeds, rather than more, to avoid top seeds playing each other.

It probably depends upon what they mean by "top seeds" playing each other.  if it's just the top couple of seeds, this will only affect a few teams.  If it's the top 10-15 seeds or more, it would have more disruptive effects.

The way this will work in practice is the bracket will be constructed with NPI ranks 1-4 designated as "one seeds" and NPI ranks 5-8 as "two seeds" such that none of the top eight seeds will have any possibility of facing each other until the quarterfinals. None of the top four could meet earlier than the national semifinals.

Geography will still play somewhat of a role in the Top 8 picture in that the 8 seed will not automatically get paired with the one seed, the seven with the two, and so on.

These bracketing principles are in effect for this season and next across Division III as sort of a pilot then will be assessed from there.

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 04, 2024, 11:27:31 AMI put together a hypothetical bracket (with no adjustments) using today's NPI, will be easy to update as NPI changes. Let me know how to make it better. Thanks!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

I can no longer find the TES calculator online for mileage, but it's not something you can ignore.  They may have expanded the distance to 500 miles, but they are going to hold to it and avoid as many flights as possible in the first round. You seem to have tried to put one flight team in each first round pod, and that has 0% chance of happening. Va Wesleyan would not go to Middlebury when they can drive to at least a dozen other teams.

If you are looking at Mount Aloysius as the host team for that pod, that is equally unlikely. The tournament's #1 overall seed is going to host, unless it is the women's turn to host the first round. And even at that, the top overall seed would be unlikely to get a 498 mile trip when the options to keep them closer to home are innumerable.

For example, it would not surprise me at all for Emory to host a pod with Emory, Covenant, and Rhodes. All are drivable, Lynchburg would be the top seed but not host due to problems with Rhodes distance, and Emory and Covenant have few other options for teams within 500 miles. Or you could sub in W&L and let Lynchburg host a pod that includes a team like NC Wes and a few others from Ohio or PA. Lynchburg becomes the host because NC Wes is a drag to other areas.

Mock brackets are fun, but they do still need to be grounded in reality. If the tournament can reasonably avoid flights, they will do so. If the higher seeds can reasonably host, they will do so. There are 16 first round pods, maybe by the 5rd or 6th you start getting to a point where the top seed can't host do to geography, but it's probably deeper than that most years. At that point, they will push the hosts to the most geographically advantageous. But it's usually not the lowest seed in the pod in the first round.