I know that Middlebury is looking like the top seed but it seems like it would make sense to use another host location since they are pretty far removed from any other school

Thank you for all of this, I am aware of most of it but was just doing the first step of placing teams by NPI. I thought I had heard that they were loosening the 500 mile restriction with the advent of NPI but I may be wrong. You can see in the sheet the second tab which may be more helpful to everyone to see where teams can move up and down to make travel right, avoid conference conflicts, etc.. It also helps to see which conference tournaments could truly steal a bid (it's not that many).

This isn't my projection, just an exercise to start conversation and help everyone see how NPI makes the foundation that yes, will be manipulated to lower costs, conflicts, and travel. Thank you!

Quote from: eaglesoccerdad on November 04, 2024, 12:49:56 PMI know that Middlebury is looking like the top seed but it seems like it would make sense to use another host location since they are pretty far removed from any other school

There are plenty of schools within 500 miles of Middlebury. By mileage in a big circle, all of New England, all of New York, PA, MD and NJ qualify. Parts of Ohio, WVa, and Va also qualify. Finding 3 teams in the densest region of D3 schools and conferences will not be a problem for a first round quad. Assuming it is not the women's turn to host. I never remember. I'm well aware a 500 mile circle is different than 500 miles the way TES calculates, but in my experience when TES was accessible, it wasn't more than 20% different. So I guess a 400 mile circle, might be better, but that still encompasses a very D3 rich area.

For the most part, is has been my observation that the NCAA is agnostic on the distance teams have to bus. So it matters very little if you are 25 miles or 490 miles by the TES calculator (and again, that's different than Google maps). They tend to only get prickly about busing vs flying.

Here is the current mileage calculator: https://web2.ncaa.org/mileage
I believe it switched to this a couple years ago.

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 04, 2024, 11:27:31 AMI put together a hypothetical bracket (with no adjustments) using today's NPI, will be easy to update as NPI changes. Let me know how to make it better. Thanks!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing

This is cool. Thanks!

I may be wrong and the people calculating the NPI may not issue the NPI until right after all the conf. championships and big NCAA bracket announcement, but the reveal of all the teams in what brackets will pretty much be along the lines who is going to host and who travels where. As opposed to that AND WHO MADE THE NCAAs in previous years?

In other words, if the last NPI is held till after the announcement this year, only maybe one or two possible bubble teams might not know if they are going this year (no more 2022 Western Conn 20-0-2 issues??) Very transparent imo which is nice.

I added a sheet to my doc that includes analysis of potential conferences where an at-large bid would be "stolen".

Conferences most likely to steal a bid....

C2C - If Mary Washington loses in conference tournament, a bid is stolen.
MIAC - Win by Gustavous Adolphus, St. Olaf, or Macalester OK; any other is a stolen bid.
Newmac - If Babson loses, a bid is stolen.
WIAC - If UW-Eau Claire and UW-Platteville lose, a bid is stolen.
NCAC - If Kenyon and Denison lose, a bid is stolen.
SCAC - If Trinity (TX) and Colorado College lose, a bid is stolen.
OAC - If Ohio Northern and Mount Union lose, a bid is stolen.
CCIW - If North Park loses, a bid is stolen.
ODAC - If Lynchburg, W&L, and VA Wesleyan lose, a bid is stolen.
SUNYAC - If Buffalo St. and Cortland lose, a bid is stolen.

Conferences where a big MIGHT be stolen...(these teams have to stay high enough for at-large bid)

CCS - If Covenant loses, they might steal a bid
MAC Commonwealth - If York (PA) loses, they might steal a bid

Bids that would be stolen (in order)
Macalester
Plattsburg St.
Montclair St.
Muhlenberg
VA Wesleyan

Add McDaniel if it wins the Cent. which would be the biggest upset in a long time. Would have to beat Muhls (lost to Muhls Sat.) then Hop and the final.

I only focused on my conference of greatest interest, but unless I'm missing something DePauw would have to win AQ to steal a bid as OWU also appears to be in line to get a bid along with Denison and Kenyon.  Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

Thanks, sorry I missed ohio Wesleyan. yes, they would have to lose along with Kenyon and Denison for that conference to steal a bid. Depauw is too far out for at-large for sure right now, it's conference title for bid or nothing.

Centennial conference has 4-5 at-large bids (Muhlenberg may drop out if they lose), so I didn't list them in the list of likely bid stealers. Things would have to go really nuts to have a winner outside of that top 5.

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 04, 2024, 05:04:44 PMI added a sheet to my doc that includes analysis of potential conferences where an at-large bid would be "stolen".

Conferences most likely to steal a bid....

C2C - If Mary Washington loses in conference tournament, a bid is stolen.
MIAC - Win by Gustavous Adolphus, St. Olaf, or Macalester OK; any other is a stolen bid.
Newmac - If Babson loses, a bid is stolen.
WIAC - If UW-Eau Claire and UW-Platteville lose, a bid is stolen.
NCAC - If Kenyon and Denison lose, a bid is stolen.
SCAC - If Trinity (TX) and Colorado College lose, a bid is stolen.
OAC - If Ohio Northern and Mount Union lose, a bid is stolen.
CCIW - If North Park loses, a bid is stolen.
ODAC - If Lynchburg, W&L, and VA Wesleyan lose, a bid is stolen.
SUNYAC - If Buffalo St. and Cortland lose, a bid is stolen.

Conferences where a big MIGHT be stolen...(these teams have to stay high enough for at-large bid)

CCS - If Covenant loses, they might steal a bid
MAC Commonwealth - If York (PA) loses, they might steal a bid

Bids that would be stolen (in order)
Macalester
Plattsburg St.
Montclair St.
Muhlenberg
VA Wesleyan

I'm not sure how to think about "bid stealers" in an NPI world.  Conference tournament results will alter the NPI rankings because so many teams will pick up schedule strength and Quality Win Bonus points.  Plus, teams that played upset winners earlier in the season might get bumps to their schedule strength and pick up QWB points if the "upset" winners move up high enough in the rankings.  For example, if Christopher Newport beats Mary Washington, then you can't simply say CNU wouldn't have gotten a bid if they didn't win the AQ (which is what a bid stealer label on UMW would imply about CNU).  Winning against UMW might get CNU enough SoS/QWB points that they finish ahead of any of the teams that would think of their bid as stolen.  Moreover, CNU beat (or earned half a win in a tie) against many teams that could help give CNU more SoS/QWB points through their performance in their own conference tournaments (e.g., Rutgers-Camden, Rowan, Colorado College).

Fortunately, NPI data will be released daily in the week leading up to selection day so we can track these things in real time.

Great stuff..thanks for putting this together!

With Macalester losing to Augsburg for a second time after losing to them in the final game of the regular season (assuming a loss in 2OT is a loss and not a tie), I'm not sure they can claim bid stealing status anymore. Augsburg already passed them by in the NPI rankings before today and I imagine that gap will grow after this game.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 04, 2024, 11:19:19 PMWith Macalester losing to Augsburg for a second time after losing to them in the final game of the regular season (assuming a loss in 2OT is a loss and not a tie), I'm not sure they can claim bid stealing status anymore. Augsburg already passed them by in the NPI rankings before today and I imagine that gap will grow after this game.

Looks like we get daily NPI updates now and that move seems to have occurred. Augusburg up to 39 from 47, Macalester down to 50 from 42.

Macalester season is done, Augsburg now playing for their season next. another win could be all they need to lock up an at-large.

Updated team list with 11/4 NPI data - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing