SCAC also could steal a bid.  Trinity has lost to St. Thomas three straight years and haven't won a championship since 2018.

Bellhaven and messiah won and are in. That leaves covenant and York looking fit at large bids in bubble land. Va Wesleyan not feeling as fortunate and may get bumped.

W&L and Lynchburg tied 0-0 at the half in a defensive struggle. Haven't seen many good opportunities from either.

We just needed one :-)

Seriously,  it's quite a reflection on Coach Shabazz that he won the conference,  and hasn't lost a game since Sept 7.

Quote from: Another Mom on November 09, 2024, 07:12:04 PMWe just needed one :-)

Seriously,  it's quite a reflection on Coach Shabazz that he won the conference,  and hasn't lost a game since Sept 7.

Agreed. He inherited a lot of talent. He just needed to get it going the right direction. An outstanding way to cap the season and on to the tournament!

What's it looking like for the UAA this year with bids? Seems like it may just be Emory...

It will only be Emory. Rochester had a shot today to jump into the at-large range but gave up the tying goal with under 3 mins left. First time in 20 years for only one bid for UAA.

York and Covenant are going to be real close to dropping out of at-large berths. Oglethorpe and VA Wesleyan dropped out today when those first two lost. I looked at some other semifinal losers and they drop .4-.5 NPI points. If York and Covenant have the same effect, they will be right around Hope, Hamilton, Oglethorpe, VA Wesleyan.

Tonight's matches can change it as well.

Otterbein up 1-0 on Mount Union at half....another bubble may be popped in the next hour.

Mount Union would be in that York/Covenant group that lost today and hopes they don't fall out.

another bubble popped....Otterbein beats Mount Union. Mount Union had a shot in the middle of the box with one second left that was saved by Otterbein keeper.

Teams that lost today and have to see how far they fall tomorrow - York (PA), Covenant, and Mount Union

CCIW final is causing more bubble headache.. North Central (83) winning over North Park (19) 2-0 with 30 mins left and North Park is down a man. North Park will get an at-large for sure.

If this holds....Mount Union becomes the last team in at #30. The bubble line was around 39-40 at the start of the day.

Mount Union - 30
Covenant - 29
York - 27

All lost and will drop tomorrow. Hope, Hamilton, and VA Wesleyan are on the other side of the line right now.

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 09, 2024, 09:33:47 PMCCIW final is causing more bubble headache.. North Central (83) winning over North Park (19) 2-0 with 30 mins left and North Park is down a man. North Park will get an at-large for sure.

If this holds....Mount Union becomes the last team in at #30. The bubble line was around 39-40 at the start of the day.

Mount Union - 30
Covenant - 29
York - 27

All lost and will drop tomorrow. Hope, Hamilton, and VA Wesleyan are on the other side of the line right now.

Something very profound about saying Hope is on the other side of the line 

Edited - I was mistaken, GrizDad below is correct. Bids can be stolen if Mary Washington or Trinity (TX) lose. Muhlenberg and Denison already are holding an at-large bid so it's not a "stolen" bid but his point about who to root for is accurate as well.

Muhlenberg can lose tomorrow and fall out. Otherwise, it all comes down to the NPI calculations tomorrow. These six teams seem like the six that are on the edge. VA Wesleyan may be a real long shot though.

York 56.387
Covenant 56.358
Mount Union 56.356

Hope 55.919
Hamilton 55.846
VA Wesleyan 55.392

Rhodes/Oglethorpe is now a must-win game for each tomorrow.

Who knows, maybe some ripple from a Sunday final will change the numbers and move teams in and out, but I think tomorrow's NPI will be close to the final 64.

Here's the order from the NPI (through Friday games) of teams not yet locked in (some can still win tomorrow). Both the NESCAC and WIAC finalists are above the line so should be safe. C2C, NCAC, SCAC and possibly CC could affect the bubble tomorrow.

1 Middlebury (vs 8 Conn College)
*2 Tufts
3 Mary Washington (vs 53 Chris Newport)
*4 Amherst
*5 Williams
*6 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Johns Hopkins (vs 28 Muhlenberg)
8 Conn College (vs 1 Middlebury)
9 UW-Eau Claire (vs 17 UW-Platteville)
11 Trinity (TX) (vs 74 St Thomas)
12 Denison (vs 69 DePauw)
*13 Kenyon
*14 Colorado College
*15 Lynchburg
*16 Dickinson
17 UW-Platteville (vs 9 UW-Eau Claire)
*18 North Park
*19 Wesleyan
*20 Ohio Northern
*23 Buffalo St
*24 Frank & Marsh
*25 Ohio Wesleyan
*26 Bowdoin
27 York (PA)
28 Muhlenberg (vs 7 Johns Hopkins)
29 Covenant
30 Mount Union
31 Rhodes (vs Oglethorpe)

The 15 * teams are waiting but above the line, the NESCAC and WIAC loser will take 2 more bids, that leaves 4 spots. Bubble teams are looking for Mary Washington, Johns Hopkins, Trinity (TX), and Denison to win tomorrow and avoid taking a pool C spot.

Hamilton, Hope, Buffalo St. and Mount Union are last four in.

York, Oglethorpe, Covenant, and VA Wesleyan are last four out.

Oglethorpe plays today against Rhodes. Winner in, loser out it seems.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFmaYk8mMaNjCnoyEG0-j1kaN0vF_-3E7uYYmTeNUI4/edit?usp=sharing