What will effect Wheaton's NPI next week?

NPU @ Wheaton (Wheaton has to win or is out. NPU current Win Value is 70.883 and they will be included in Wheaton NPI calculation)

Augie @ WashU (WashU will be favored. Both teams used in calculation)

Carthage @ Carroll (Carroll will be favored but could go either way. If Carroll wins, Carthage might be dropped from calculation)

NCC @ IWU (NCC will win. Both teams used in calculation)

Millikin@ Elmhurst (Elmhurst will be favored.)

UWO @ UWRF (Could be interesting...)

Wheaton's current NPI calculation:
Rank   Team   Outcomes   Npi        Win value   Loss value   Qwb   Net npi        Adj wins  Adj Losses
4            NCC               HL      77.109   92.043      46.266      5.777     50.892        0.0              1.1
29            UWO         AL       65.791    82.422    39.474      2.948         35.527       0.0             0.9
43          WashU         AW      61.618   78.875   36.971      1.905      86.763        1.1             0.0
107          IWU              HW     51.938     71.163     31.163       0.0        64.047     0.9             0.0
122         Carroll       AW      49.904   69.943   29.943      0.0             76.937         1.1             0.0
138          Augie         HW      47.345   68.407   28.407      0.0             61.567         0.9             0.0
177         Elmhurst       HW      41.464   64.879   24.879      0.0           58.391        0.9             0.0
182         Carthage       AW      40.544   64.327   24.327      0.0           70.759         1.1          0.0

I know there are some IWU fans out there.  I attended the game yesterday and here is my take.

Looked like IWU's game plan offensively was running, short passes, control the clock and it worked.  They held the ball for 40:49 minutes and had 71 offensive plays.  Carroll had the ball for 19:11 minutes and had 36 offensive plays.

Carroll's D has suffered a couple big injuries this year in losing their 2 starting LB's. The players replacing them have done a decent job but that productivity is hard to replace.

IWU's defense did a good job against Carroll's run game holding them to 60 yards on 22 carries.

Carroll's top rusher was their TE #45 Reed Breckheimer who had a 22 yd TD run. Reed also had a 68 yard TD reception. Carroll had a long kick-off return by RB #30 Nick Legnaioli to setup a 16 yd TD run by their QB #2 Charlie King late in the first half. They missed on a long pass to the IWU 12 yard line in the 4rth Q that looked like it might be caught and would have been a big play for them.

I thought Carroll's offensive game plan was a little too conservative running 22 times and throwing 14 times, especially with IWU playing the run well.  You're 4-4 going in, let it rip.  In the end the D couldn't stop a late game winning drive by IWU who scored the game winner with 20 seconds left in the game.  The D being out there for 40 minutes didn't help...

I'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

Quote from: devildog29 on November 10, 2024, 01:28:08 PMI'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

Sweet, he'll get to go out on a "We played just as well as them" following a 66-7 drubbing at the hands of NCC. Might as well get one more for old time's sake.

Quote from: devildog29 on November 10, 2024, 01:28:08 PMI'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

No snark from me. As I said before, for selfish reasons I wanted Norm to coach until he was ninety.

I don't wish him ill. I hope that he enjoys all of the accolades that the IWU community will give him over the next couple of weeks. He had a nice, long run coaching the Titans. I've made my opinion of him pretty plain here, but now's not the time to rehash it, and I'll just leave it at that.

Quote from: devildog29 on November 10, 2024, 01:28:08 PMI'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

Since this isn't a surprise, I wonder if they have a candidate in mind?

Quote from: D3Rookie on November 10, 2024, 02:45:32 PM

Quote from: devildog29 on November 10, 2024, 01:28:08 PMI'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

Since this isn't a surprise, I wonder if they have a candidate in mind?

Great question -- a couple of IWU alumns/former assistants have taken head coaching jobs elsewhere in the last few years, so I wonder if they are heirs apparent or if they left because they didn't want to keep waiting.

IWU football needs a new era, a new style of play and some energy to recruit a different level of athlete to be successful vs. NCC and WC.   I'm surprised the Titans beat Carroll yesterday and got to 5 wins this year.  I've heard of no heir apparent, though I'm not in the football loop at all around IWU.

We're all very excited about basketball -- the results this weekend at the Sikma tournament for the men and the beginning of the season this coming weekend for the women at Calvin, playing Calvin and Hope. 

IWU'70

It's no secret that a lot of Titan fans have hoped for Rob Zvonar from LW East to take the job. Not sure how well that times out as he is a few years from teacher retirement. I do think he has a son that either is attending or will attend IWU.

They are looking for the Bob Reade/John Thorne effect there.

WashU DC Jeff Fisher also gets mentioned by alums. I'm not sure if life circumstances are set for him to go for it.

That is all speculation. I'm not an alum and don't know Rob or Jeff personally. I'm guessing it will be someone else.

Wheaton fans should listen to ATN 367. Logan's segment starts around 41 minute mark.
At around 45 minute mark it's mentioned if all favorites vying for pool C win then Wheaton is first team out of the playoffs. They mention a couple upsets that would help Wheaton get in.

https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2024/11/11/atn-podcast-367-close-calls/

Quote from: CarollFan on November 11, 2024, 08:44:22 AMWheaton fans should listen to ATN 367. Logan's segment starts around 41 minute mark.
At around 45 minute mark it's mentioned if all favorites vying for pool C win then Wheaton is first team out of the playoffs. They mention a couple upsets that would help Wheaton get in.

https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2024/11/11/atn-podcast-367-close-calls/

Wheaton needs John Carroll to beat Marietta or Whitworth to beat Linfield or River Falls to beat Oshkosh to get in.  Also, DePauw needs to beat Wabash or they will need 2/3 of the above to happen. This is as long as there are no other huge unforeseen upsets. WashU was not mentioned as having a chance to get in via Pool C.

Games this week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

NCC -41.2 @ IWU
NPU @ Wheaton -31.5
Augie @ WashU -23.6
Carthage @ Carroll -21.5
Millikin @ Elmhurst -6.5

One tweet I saw from Logan is if you have 2 teams that are being used in your NPI calculation, when these 2 teams play each other you want the team with the higher NPI to win.

Other Pool C games (Spreads are interesting based on ATN 367 discussion)

Marietta @ John Carroll -1.9
Linfield -7.9 @ Whitworth
UWO @ UWRF -5.9
Wabash @ DePauw -21.8

IWU is a fantastic job and would think there would be some outstanding candidates.

Wonder if Jeff Thorne would be interested in the job.

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 11, 2024, 01:01:38 PMIWU is a fantastic job and would think there would be some outstanding candidates.

Wonder if Jeff Thorne would be interested in the job.

What a great way to get back at Norm for all his antics in the past, take over after him and win.  But if Norm was allowed to stay around this long, no way he doesn't have say in who replaces him.

I would bet money that Norm keeps on office in the building...