Here's something worth complaining about. John Carroll hosts but neither higher ranked W&J or GCC do.

Ex Tartan, How does the CC stack up vs the PAC this uear?

Quote from: ADL70 on November 17, 2024, 05:27:00 PMHere's something worth complaining about. John Carroll hosts but neither higher ranked W&J or GCC do.

John Carroll is hosting in the FIRST round, W&J/Grove City/CMU all have byes to second round.

But this failure of a ranking system set CMU up to host in that round while W&J & Grove both have to go on the road.

https://www.extrapointsmb.com/p/the-2024-extra-points-bowl-will-feature-the-marietta-college-pioneers-and-the-westminster-college-ti?_bhlid=60e8daffe48250ef799a1459a7a119efe88e96b3&utm_campaign=the-2024-extra-points-bowl-will-feature-the-marietta-pioneers-and-the-westminster-pa-titans&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=www.extrapointsmb.com

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 17, 2024, 09:38:09 AMOnly the 'AA could "craft' a formula to 'evaluate' three teams who beat each other in close games, beat eight other common opponents, and produce rankings from #17 (the team with the worst tie-breaker numbers in the three-way) to #23 (the team that won the tie-breaker in the league).  ONLY the NCAA.

Hi, Bob -- welcome back to the board.

The difference is because of the difference between home and away games. Those are dealt with differently in the calculation.

Pat, I understand WHERE the difference is.

In a sport where home & away rotates year to year, it makes no sense to include.  So what, W&J went to Thiel and won?  It was no more of a game because W&J traveled 90 minutes. But they get more credit for doing that, like it was more difficult?

Seriously, and perhaps specifically to the PAC situation and should others arise in the future:  If W&J/Grove City/CMU can beat each other by no more than a touchdown, and sweep the rest of the League while playing NO ONE ELSE, the NPI should be the same.

That's one man's opinion.

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 09:58:04 AMPat, I understand WHERE the difference is.

In a sport where home & away rotates year to year, it makes no sense to include.  So what, W&J went to Thiel and won?  It was no more of a game because W&J traveled 90 minutes. But they get more credit for doing that, like it was more difficult?

Seriously, and perhaps specifically to the PAC situation and should others arise in the future:  If W&J/Grove City/CMU can beat each other by no more than a touchdown, and sweep the rest of the League while playing NO ONE ELSE, the NPI should be the same.

That's one man's opinion.

No, the committee feels that home field is important -- in a small, small way, but enough for CMU, who played three of the other four top teams on the road, to get a small advantage in the NPI.

Playing Thiel essentially doesn't play into the NPI of a good team at all. Only the five best wins (and all losses) are counted, so Thiel's result is basically ignored.

This chart doesn't copy and paste well, but this is what's on the W&J NPI:

Rank   Team   Outcomes   Npi   Win value   Loss value   Qwb   Net npi   Adj wins   Adj Losses
17   Carnegie Mellon   HL   69.332   85.432   41.599   3.833   45.759   0.0   1.1
19   Grove City   HW   68.945   85.103   41.367   3.736   76.593   0.9   0.0
68   Westminster (PA)   AW   57.765   75.6   34.659   0.941   83.16   1.1   0.0
91   CWRU   AW   54.352   72.699   32.611   0.088   79.969   1.1   0.0
119   Geneva   HW   50.109   70.065   30.065   0.0   63.059   0.9   0.0
145   Waynesburg   AW   46.649   67.989   27.989   0.0   67.989   1.0   0.0

And these games are dropped.
168   Thiel   AW   42.956   65.774   25.774   0.0   0.0   1.1   0.0
212   Allegheny   AW   32.946   59.767   19.767   0.0   0.0   1.1   0.0
213   Saint Vincent   HW   32.871   59.723   19.723   0.0   0.0   0.9   0.0
214   Bethany (WV)   HW   32.807   59.684   19.684   0.0   0.0   0.9   0.0

Substitute Waynesburg for my Thiel statement. Home or away does improve the quality of the win because it doesn't improve the quality of the opponent.

Again, home & away is simply a rotation.  So W&J's win over Grove City is less valuable because the League schedule put it at Cameron instead of Thorn.  And Mellon's win over W&J is more valuable because the Tartans traveled 25 miles instead of the Presidents.

Sorry, in a closed league schedule, 9-1 / 9-1 / 9-1 is the same, EXCEPT in the eyes of the 'AA.

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 11:11:28 AMSubstitute Waynesburg for my Thiel statement. Home or away does improve the quality of the win because it doesn't improve the quality of the opponent.

The coaches and folks on the committee disagree. And I bet CMU thinks W&J plays better at home as well.

I get the complaint in this case, but the committee needs a formula that is consistent and as fair as possible, and there will always be edge cases it can't account for.  The simple way to avoid being a few spots behind another 9-1 team of course would have been to go 10-0. 😁

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 11:26:16 AM

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 11:11:28 AMSubstitute Waynesburg for my Thiel statement. Home or away does improve the quality of the win because it doesn't improve the quality of the opponent.

The coaches and folks on the committee disagree. And I bet CMU thinks W&J plays better at home as well.

They think that way, because they were educated to think that way from the NFL and bigtime D1 football.  When the away team is playing in a stadium with 50k+ opposing fans, yes that is a real advantage for the home team.   When the away team is getting on a plane or in D3 a 3 hour+ bus ride, that is an advantage for the home team. 

When you get on a bus and drive 30 minutes from Oakland to Washington PA to play infront of 3,000 people, that is not much of an advantage no matter how loud and rowdy those 3,000 fans are.

With that said, I do agree that they need a standard equation for all conferences and they cannot make an exception for the  PAC.

Quote from: mikefln on November 18, 2024, 02:43:54 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 11:26:16 AM

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 11:11:28 AMSubstitute Waynesburg for my Thiel statement. Home or away does improve the quality of the win because it doesn't improve the quality of the opponent.

The coaches and folks on the committee disagree. And I bet CMU thinks W&J plays better at home as well.

They think that way, because they were educated to think that way from the NFL and bigtime D1 football.  When the away team is playing in a stadium with 50k+ opposing fans, yes that is a real advantage for the home team.   When the away team is getting on a plane or in D3 a 3 hour+ bus ride, that is an advantage for the home team. 

When you get on a bus and drive 30 minutes from Oakland to Washington PA to play infront of 3,000 people, that is not much of an advantage no matter how loud and rowdy those 3,000 fans are.

With that said, I do agree that they need a standard equation for all conferences and they cannot make an exception for the  PAC.

The analytics -- Logan Hansen, now, not the NPI -- show there is a home field advantage, even in D-III.

Listen, if one really wanted to make an "exception" for the PAC, the one that would make the most logical sense would be make them ineligible for an at-large bid, because they play a schedule that results in ZERO empirical evidence whatsoever as to how any PAC team compares to any non-PAC team.  There are a million problems with the NPI, but it gave the PAC not one but two at-large bids on the basis of no comparative information whatsoever; as far as playoff criteria that rely solely on objective data go, the PAC could have done a lot, lot worse.  I'm glad to see all three in the playoffs, and I think the league will win a few playoff games, but not ranking them exactly the same in the NPI hardly seems outrageous.

So, any league that plays a closed schedule can not be eligible for a Wild Card?  Seriously?

And I didn't ask for any PAC exception.  What would be reasonable would be an plank in the formula that deals with any such situation, PAC or otherwise.  I'm sorry. The thought that Cameron, or Thorn, or Gesling, or Burry, or DiSanto Fields play ANY meaningful role in the outcome of games among the top 4-5 teams in this league needs to be proven to me.  And until then, I'll maintain that 9-1 = 9-1 = 9-1.

You may not like my argument. You may think there are bigger issues to worry about. But to say a League that has 10-11 teams should not be eligible for Wild Card spots is just ridiculous.

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 03:58:59 PMSo, any league that plays a closed schedule can not be eligible for a Wild Card?  Seriously?

And I didn't ask for any PAC exception.  What would be reasonable would be an plank in the formula that deals with any such situation, PAC or otherwise.  I'm sorry. The thought that Cameron, or Thorn, or Gesling, or Burry, or DiSanto Fields play ANY meaningful role in the outcome of games among the top 4-5 teams in this league needs to be proven to me.  And until then, I'll maintain that 9-1 = 9-1 = 9-1.

You may not like my argument. You may think there are bigger issues to worry about. But to say a League that has 10-11 teams should not be eligible for Wild Card spots is just ridiculous.

It's actually not as ridiculous as choosing to play a closed schedule.