Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 18, 2024, 02:12:10 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 12:58:23 PMLake Forest won't actually host, but that doesn't take away from your point that they were seeded to host.

Can you explain why Lake Forest was seeded ahead of Platteville, Hope, Aurora, and Wartburg?

We've been talking about this all season, but the algorithm is set up by the football committee to heavily skew toward winning percentage, first off. Of those teams, only Hope is unbeaten and Lake Forest's schedule scored out better in the algorithm.

In our podcast this week we go into a little more depth on this with Logan Hansen than I have time to retype here.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 01:13:50 PM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 18, 2024, 01:12:33 PMDo you guys know what the specific reason is Lake Forest can't host?

They didn't file in time.

They chose not to file because of a mistaken impression by the administration that they needed lights.

However, even if they did file, their press box is not adequate to the task -- there are no separated booths for coaches, and that's a requirement. That could be fixed on the fly, but they would have had to file in time.

Rather surprising given that their coach has been on the playoff committee for several years (not on it currently I believe).

Yes, for sure. But he is no longer the athletic director.

Quote from: Jbothe on November 18, 2024, 02:06:11 PMNorth Central people on the board.  How are you feeling about your team this year. I only saw them Saturday against IWU.

Healthy?

As strong as the last couple of years.  I would love to see a CCIW champion.

They are down from last year, but I don't know if that means they have any less of a shot to win it all. It seems like around the nation it's a bit more wide open than we are used to.

I'd say 4 position groups are "down" after losing their game-changers: WR (Hardy), DB (Walker), OL (Thornton/Fortier), DL (Lester, and Egbo has been fighting injuries all season). That's 4 position groups that are missing individual players who could wreck games by themselves; something they've had the last few years. Lehnen has gotten better (as you'd expect a QB to as he ages), the RB room is deep, talented and has a few different kinds of backs to throw at you and the LBs are veterans so won't make a lot of mistakes. Hopefully the week off allows some guys to rest up and get fully healthy (Egbo, specifically).

I think St Johns should probably be the favorite right now, NCC next.

I posted this on the MIAA board (which has very few interactions) so I thought I would share it here as well.  I get that NPI is the ranking system, but why such a lopsided bracket:

What a tough quadrant Hope is in!  There are a total of 11 teams that are 10-0 in the entire bracket, and 5 - yes FIVE of them are in Hope's quadrant (so half of the 10 teams in the quadrant)!  Each of the the other 3 quadrants have 2 undefeated teams.

To put it another way, this quadrant has:

Per NPI ranking - 8 of the top 25 - teams ranked 4, 5, 9, 10, 14, 21, 22, 25 

Per the D3FB Top 25 - 7 of the top 25 - teams ranked 1, 2, 10, 15, 16, 22, 23

Quote from: robertgoulet on November 18, 2024, 02:27:12 PM

Quote from: Jbothe on November 18, 2024, 02:06:11 PMNorth Central people on the board.  How are you feeling about your team this year. I only saw them Saturday against IWU.

Healthy?

As strong as the last couple of years.  I would love to see a CCIW champion.

They are down from last year, but I don't know if that means they have any less of a shot to win it all. It seems like around the nation it's a bit more wide open than we are used to.

I'd say 4 position groups are "down" after losing their game-changers: WR (Hardy), DB (Walker), OL (Thornton/Fortier), DL (Lester, and Egbo has been fighting injuries all season). That's 4 position groups that are missing individual players who could wreck games by themselves; something they've had the last few years. Lehnen has gotten better (as you'd expect a QB to as he ages), the RB room is deep, talented and has a few different kinds of backs to throw at you and the LBs are veterans so won't make a lot of mistakes. Hopefully the week off allows some guys to rest up and get fully healthy (Egbo, specifically).

I think St Johns should probably be the favorite right now, NCC next.

Last week was easily the worst game they have played this season.  However, if NCC is healthy, I think they are the favorite.  The DL IMO is better than it was last year.  The caveat on that being Dan Lester didnt play after the Wheaton game (4th game of season) so I dont think including him in last year matters, as he didnt play at all in the playoffs.  Bobby Medina, JP Sullivan, Cortez Jones and Jacob Vincent all essentially started the entire playoffs last year as freshmen and sophomores and are much better for it this season.  Throw in a healthy Egbo and i think they have been better than last year. 

The BIG concern for me is the secondary health heading into the playoffs.  The defense is night and day without Brayden Garrigan playing at safety.  I assume he will play in the playoffs, as he was no longer wearing a cast on his wrist/hand on the sidelines this past weekend, but not positive. He has not played since the Augie game. They also lost the other starting safety Kenny Rutherford for the season in the Wheaton game.  Jahron Williams who started at saftey all of last year has yet to play this season and was in a walking boot still this past weekend.  If you count those 3, NCC was also without their 4th safety against IWU, as Kyler Green also sat out with injury.  If Garrigan is healthy for the playoffs and either Green or Williams can play, than I feel really good about our chances. Also, noticed that Zack Orr was moved back to play some safety last week, as he started there on the '22 team but was moved to OLB/nickel the last 2 seasons. at corner they have had the same 2 starters all season, but did lose Ethan Groark to injury early in the season. He started down the stretch after the Walker injury last year.  they moved Kaden Hartnett from WR to be the 3rd CB and he looks promising, but is only a sophomore and obviously has limited experience.

As RG noted, LBs are graduate 5th years and have a lot of experience.  They also have been working in freshman Janiak at MLB the past few weeks, which allows them to bump Cusamano to OLB and Orr back to safety.  He looks really promising for the future. 

On offense, they definitely lost something at WR without Hardy and Lombardi but i feel as though the passing game hasnt missed much of a beat as they have just put more on Lehnen's plate this year.  Last year, i feel like the coaches almost got too comfortable in the regular season spamming the run game because they knew it would work against most opponents.  This year, i feel as if we are throwing more often earlier in games and Lehnen has played really well. 

Overall, not as good as last year but i think the entirety of D3 is down from last year.  Which should be expected considering how much of an anomaly the covid seasons were and how many fewer 5th year players there are now throughout the nation.  Next year will be even more of shift as there will be zero players left with the extra covid season.

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 18, 2024, 03:17:51 PMThrow in a healthy Egbo and i think they have been better than last year. 

Hoping this is ITK 

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on November 18, 2024, 02:44:13 PMI posted this on the MIAA board (which has very few interactions) so I thought I would share it here as well.  I get that NPI is the ranking system, but why such a lopsided bracket:

Enjoy the Aurora game.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 18, 2024, 05:06:28 PM

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on November 18, 2024, 02:44:13 PMI posted this on the MIAA board (which has very few interactions) so I thought I would share it here as well.  I get that NPI is the ranking system, but why such a lopsided bracket:

Enjoy the Aurora game.

It's not the 10-0 Springfields and Mass-Dartmouths you should be worried about in D-III, but the 9-1 Platteville and 8-2 Bethels.

Logan has his predictions for this week. https://hansenratings.github.io/

He has Wheaton -7.4 over UW-Stout.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 18, 2024, 05:06:28 PM

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on November 18, 2024, 02:44:13 PMI posted this on the MIAA board (which has very few interactions) so I thought I would share it here as well.  I get that NPI is the ranking system, but why such a lopsided bracket:

Enjoy the Aurora game.

OF course - we get to play at home and are favored to win.  Who is Carrol playing??       

Quote from: CarollFan on November 19, 2024, 06:55:58 AMLogan has his predictions for this week. https://hansenratings.github.io/

He has Wheaton -7.4 over UW-Stout.

For NCC fans Logan has Whitworth favored this week.
He has a spreadsheet called playoff simulation where he gives percentage chance of winning in each round for every team.

Sullivan and Johanik co-dpoy
Luke opoy

https://cciw.org/news/2024/11/19/cciw-announces-football-all-conference-teams.aspx

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 02:13:27 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 18, 2024, 02:12:10 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 12:58:23 PMLake Forest won't actually host, but that doesn't take away from your point that they were seeded to host.

Can you explain why Lake Forest was seeded ahead of Platteville, Hope, Aurora, and Wartburg?

We've been talking about this all season, but the algorithm is set up by the football committee to heavily skew toward winning percentage, first off. Of those teams, only Hope is unbeaten and Lake Forest's schedule scored out better in the algorithm.

In our podcast this week we go into a little more depth on this with Logan Hansen than I have time to retype here.

I'm a little sorry that Lake Forest doesn't get to host -- not so much because of the epochal event it would be for LFC fans, but more so out of gentle mockery. Y'see, I've witnessed this season's edition of the Foresters. They scrimmaged NPU at Hedstrand Field in late August, and the Vikings treated them like a ten-year-old boy out for a walk treats a tin can in his path.

Now, I know it was just a scrimmage, and teams change to a certain degree over the long progression from season's beginning to season's end. But I'm reasonably sure that the Foresters would've finished in the lower half of the CCIW this season if our ancient colleagues up on the North Shore were still a part of our league, and it's very conceivable that they would've finished in the lower third -- and this is a pretty ordinary CCIW by the league's historical standards.

Yes, I'm well aware that the unique problems of D3 football's very limited out-of-conference play forces the NCAA to resort to the abstruse formulae of computer algorithms to shape the playoff bracket. But in real-world terms the thought of LFC hosting a second-round game against a perennial powerhouse like Bethel, well ... it's hard not to chuckle at that.

"My kingdom for a couple of press box partitions!"

Congratulations to North Park's Egan Bender, Ben Butler, Jaydin Miller, and Jereme Ombogo for making All-CCIW first team and to Josh DeLuca, Matt Eck, Wesley McCloud, and Juan Nieves for making All-CCIW second team. I'm pretty sure that this is the first time I've ever seen an All-CCIW team that had eight North Park players on it, which pretty likely means that it's never happened until now.

A particularly big doff o' the chapeau to senior Juan Nieves for being a four-time member of the All-CCIW team. I'll have to check with Dennis Prikkel on this, but I'm pretty sure that Nieves is the first Viking ever to be named All-CCIW in each of his four seasons. Also, a shout-out to senior Josh DeLuca, who, as an offensive lineman, is a name that I rarely utter into the mic on an autumn Saturday afternoon at Hedstrand Field. For all of the myriad woes that NPU has faced over the years on the gridiron, the lack of a decent O-line has been the most glaring and the most chronic. As a result, an NPU offensive linemen being named to the All-CCIW team happens about once in a blue moon -- and when it does, the guy who earned it deserves a special kudo from Vikings fans.