Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 04:08:03 PM

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 03:58:59 PMSo, any league that plays a closed schedule can not be eligible for a Wild Card?  Seriously?

And I didn't ask for any PAC exception.  What would be reasonable would be an plank in the formula that deals with any such situation, PAC or otherwise.  I'm sorry. The thought that Cameron, or Thorn, or Gesling, or Burry, or DiSanto Fields play ANY meaningful role in the outcome of games among the top 4-5 teams in this league needs to be proven to me.  And until then, I'll maintain that 9-1 = 9-1 = 9-1.

You may not like my argument. You may think there are bigger issues to worry about. But to say a League that has 10-11 teams should not be eligible for Wild Card spots is just ridiculous.

It's actually not as ridiculous as choosing to play a closed schedule.

Yep, this.

Quote from: unionpalooza on November 18, 2024, 03:05:44 PMListen, if one really wanted to make an "exception" for the PAC, the one that would make the most logical sense would be make them ineligible for an at-large bid, because they play a schedule that results in ZERO empirical evidence whatsoever as to how any PAC team compares to any non-PAC team.  There are a million problems with the NPI, but it gave the PAC not one but two at-large bids on the basis of no comparative information whatsoever; as far as playoff criteria that rely solely on objective data go, the PAC could have done a lot, lot worse.  I'm glad to see all three in the playoffs, and I think the league will win a few playoff games, but not ranking them exactly the same in the NPI hardly seems outrageous.

No OOC games in the regular season, but the PAC champion has performed well in the last couple of tournaments and they've done well in bowl games, so it's not like NPI chose objectively bad teams.  I think these teams are all very good, all in the top 40, and definitely belong.  And thankfully we'll get to see these teams stretch their legs a bit in September starting next year. 

Quote from: WashJeff68 on November 17, 2024, 05:52:18 PMEx Tartan, How does the CC stack up vs the PAC this uear?

On a different note than the recent airing of grievances...

I guess we'll find out. Gotta hope the Wolverines do the PAC proud at Johns Hopkins!

Overall this looks like a pretty nice set of matchups for the PAC. I think all three have winnable games in the round of 32. I'll stop short of "picking all three to win" - everyone left standing by the round of 32 is dangerous and I think winning all three may be a stretch - but I think the PAC has a chance to validate the impression that the league's top teams are legit top-20 caliber teams right now.

Also, let's not forget to root on Westminster in the Extra Points Bowl! If I didn't have some other commitments (namely, little kids) I'd consider making the drive...but anyone who is nearby should totally go! The guy who writes Extra Points is a lot of fun and worth a follow, and he seems genuinely excited at his foray into sponsoring a bowl game.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 03:00:32 PMThe analytics -- Logan Hansen, now, not the NPI -- show there is a home field advantage, even in D-III.

I do not doubt that there is a home field advantage in D3.  My argument is that the reasoning is different at this level. 

There are places that get great crowds and atmosphere (St John and Wabash immediately come to mind), but it is still a far cry from the noise and intimidation of playing in front of 50k+ opposing fans making noise to disturb your rhythm.   Plus there are no flights with jetlag.

What cause home field advantage in D3 is long bus trips and leaving before 7am.  I do not have any evidence and I wouldn't even know where to look for it.  Yet I argue, D3 home field advantage show up when you have 3 hour+ bus rides and leaving before 7am.  Every hour on a bus after 3 hours, the home field advantage goes up.  Every hour you leave campus before 7am, home field advantage goes up.

So in this scenario where the Oakland section of Pittsburgh  being roughly 30 minutes from Washington PA for a 1pm game, it lacks those 2 issues.

Again, I do not think the PAC should get an exception since they played a closed schedule.

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 02:02:34 PM

Quote from: WashJeff68 on November 17, 2024, 05:52:18 PMEx Tartan, How does the CC stack up vs the PAC this uear?

On a different note than the recent airing of grievances...

I guess we'll find out. Gotta hope the Wolverines do the PAC proud at Johns Hopkins!

Overall this looks like a pretty nice set of matchups for the PAC. I think all three have winnable games in the round of 32. I'll stop short of "picking all three to win" - everyone left standing by the round of 32 is dangerous and I think winning all three may be a stretch - but I think the PAC has a chance to validate the impression that the league's top teams are legit top-20 caliber teams right now.

Also, let's not forget to root on Westminster in the Extra Points Bowl! If I didn't have some other commitments (namely, little kids) I'd consider making the drive...but anyone who is nearby should totally go! The guy who writes Extra Points is a lot of fun and worth a follow, and he seems genuinely excited at his foray into sponsoring a bowl game.

Great post.  Out of the 3, who  do you see making it the furthest?

Quote from: mikefln on November 19, 2024, 03:01:22 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 03:00:32 PMThe analytics -- Logan Hansen, now, not the NPI -- show there is a home field advantage, even in D-III.

I do not doubt that there is a home field advantage in D3.  My argument is that the reasoning is different at this level. 

There are places that get great crowds and atmosphere (St John and Wabash immediately come to mind), but it is still a far cry from the noise and intimidation of playing in front of 50k+ opposing fans making noise to disturb your rhythm.   Plus there are no flights with jetlag.

What cause home field advantage in D3 is long bus trips and leaving before 7am.  I do not have any evidence and I wouldn't even know where to look for it.  Yet I argue, D3 home field advantage show up when you have 3 hour+ bus rides and leaving before 7am.  Every hour on a bus after 3 hours, the home field advantage goes up.  Every hour you leave campus before 7am, home field advantage goes up.

So in this scenario where the Oakland section of Pittsburgh  being roughly 30 minutes from Washington PA for a 1pm game, it lacks those 2 issues.

Again, I do not think the PAC should get an exception since they played a closed schedule.

What exception are they receiving?

Quote from: mikefln on November 19, 2024, 03:03:54 PM

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 02:02:34 PM

Quote from: WashJeff68 on November 17, 2024, 05:52:18 PMEx Tartan, How does the CC stack up vs the PAC this uear?

On a different note than the recent airing of grievances...

I guess we'll find out. Gotta hope the Wolverines do the PAC proud at Johns Hopkins!

Overall this looks like a pretty nice set of matchups for the PAC. I think all three have winnable games in the round of 32. I'll stop short of "picking all three to win" - everyone left standing by the round of 32 is dangerous and I think winning all three may be a stretch - but I think the PAC has a chance to validate the impression that the league's top teams are legit top-20 caliber teams right now.

Also, let's not forget to root on Westminster in the Extra Points Bowl! If I didn't have some other commitments (namely, little kids) I'd consider making the drive...but anyone who is nearby should totally go! The guy who writes Extra Points is a lot of fun and worth a follow, and he seems genuinely excited at his foray into sponsoring a bowl game.

Great post.  Out of the 3, who  do you see making it the furthest?

Oh man, tough question.

I really hope I'm not jinxing myself by saying this, but CMU appears to have drawn the most winnable game in the round of 32 (playing at home and against an opponent probably considered the least intimidating of the three). Randolph-Macon made a deep playoff run last year and Johns Hopkins is a perennial power. So while I think Grove City and W&J are both very strong contenders, I don't think I'm taking it for granted that any of the three are locks to win in round one - just saying that all three *can* IMO.

Beyond that...it gets tricky to prognosticate too far...CMU would have a hypothetical round of 16 matchup at Mount Union, and I don't even want to start talking about that until it's on the board.

I'll just say that I think there are very few teams in the field who are *so* dominant that they seem out of reach for the PAC trio. Grove City dang near beat the national champs last year (and *did* beat the one team who beat the national champs in the regular season). The year before CMU was the only team to lead North Central at any point in the playoffs and went into the fourth quarter down just 14-7. I think the PAC teams have been showing they're in that second tier of D3 powers and maybe knocking on the door of having someone break through to the quarters or semifinals. Let's make it happen, fellas.

Quote from: jdpiv on November 19, 2024, 03:39:46 PMWhat exception are they receiving?

None.  My comment was in reference to someone suggesting that conferences with closed schedules NPI should be adjusted.  I don't believe that.

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 03:59:40 PMOh man, tough question.

I really hope I'm not jinxing myself by saying this, but CMU appears to have drawn the most winnable game in the round of 32 (playing at home and against an opponent probably considered the least intimidating of the three). Randolph-Macon made a deep playoff run last year and Johns Hopkins is a perennial power. So while I think Grove City and W&J are both very strong contenders, I don't think I'm taking it for granted that any of the three are locks to win in round one - just saying that all three *can* IMO.

Beyond that...it gets tricky to prognosticate too far...CMU would have a hypothetical round of 16 matchup at Mount Union, and I don't even want to start talking about that until it's on the board.

I'll just say that I think there are very few teams in the field who are *so* dominant that they seem out of reach for the PAC trio. Grove City dang near beat the national champs last year (and *did* beat the one team who beat the national champs in the regular season). The year before CMU was the only team to lead North Central at any point in the playoffs and went into the fourth quarter down just 14-7. I think the PAC teams have been showing they're in that second tier of D3 powers and maybe knocking on the door of having someone break through to the quarters or semifinals. Let's make it happen, fellas.

I like the train of thought here and think its fair.

To tagalong on your CMU comment  which I agree of them having the easiest game one but the hardest 2nd game.  GCC is the opposite.   GCC has the hardest 1st game but the easiest 2nd draw if they win.  W&J is in-between.

Also, I can't believe you guys keep saying that it's only a 30-minute trip from Oakland (CMU) to W&J. It's at *least* 35 minutes. Probably 40 on a bus!

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 08:55:40 PMAlso, I can't believe you guys keep saying that it's only a 30-minute trip from Oakland (CMU) to W&J. It's at *least* 35 minutes. Probably 40 on a bus!

sho nuff

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 03:59:40 PM

Quote from: mikefln on November 19, 2024, 03:03:54 PM

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 19, 2024, 02:02:34 PM

Quote from: WashJeff68 on November 17, 2024, 05:52:18 PMEx Tartan, How does the CC stack up vs the PAC this uear?

On a different note than the recent airing of grievances...

I guess we'll find out. Gotta hope the Wolverines do the PAC proud at Johns Hopkins!

Overall this looks like a pretty nice set of matchups for the PAC. I think all three have winnable games in the round of 32. I'll stop short of "picking all three to win" - everyone left standing by the round of 32 is dangerous and I think winning all three may be a stretch - but I think the PAC has a chance to validate the impression that the league's top teams are legit top-20 caliber teams right now.

Also, let's not forget to root on Westminster in the Extra Points Bowl! If I didn't have some other commitments (namely, little kids) I'd consider making the drive...but anyone who is nearby should totally go! The guy who writes Extra Points is a lot of fun and worth a follow, and he seems genuinely excited at his foray into sponsoring a bowl game.

Great post.  Out of the 3, who  do you see making it the furthest?

Oh man, tough question.

I really hope I'm not jinxing myself by saying this, but CMU appears to have drawn the most winnable game in the round of 32 (playing at home and against an opponent probably considered the least intimidating of the three). Randolph-Macon made a deep playoff run last year and Johns Hopkins is a perennial power. So while I think Grove City and W&J are both very strong contenders, I don't think I'm taking it for granted that any of the three are locks to win in round one - just saying that all three *can* IMO.

Beyond that...it gets tricky to prognosticate too far...CMU would have a hypothetical round of 16 matchup at Mount Union, and I don't even want to start talking about that until it's on the board.

I'll just say that I think there are very few teams in the field who are *so* dominant that they seem out of reach for the PAC trio. Grove City dang near beat the national champs last year (and *did* beat the one team who beat the national champs in the regular season). The year before CMU was the only team to lead North Central at any point in the playoffs and went into the fourth quarter down just 14-7. I think the PAC teams have been showing they're in that second tier of D3 powers and maybe knocking on the door of having someone break through to the quarters or semifinals. Let's make it happen, fellas.

Long time listener, first time caller.... if they want to bracket us (PAC) this way, love to see a all PAC Semi-Final!  Let's show them what we bring!  They are all highly skilled team in their own ways.  They can all go toe to toe with the best.  Anything can happen on a Saturday!  Just need them all to stay healthy for 5 weeks!

Quote from: DevilsAdvocate on November 20, 2024, 08:25:06 AMLong time listener, first time caller.... if they want to bracket us (PAC) this way, love to see a all PAC Semi-Final!  Let's show them what we bring!  They are all highly skilled team in their own ways.  They can all go toe to toe with the best.  Anything can happen on a Saturday!  Just need them all to stay healthy for 5 weeks!

I love the thought process and I do believe that each team is capable,  but that Mount Union draw is a tough one to overcome for sure.  But first thing first, they all have tough round of 32 games they need to win.

Quote from: mikefln on November 18, 2024, 02:43:54 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 18, 2024, 11:26:16 AM

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 18, 2024, 11:11:28 AMSubstitute Waynesburg for my Thiel statement. Home or away does improve the quality of the win because it doesn't improve the quality of the opponent.

The coaches and folks on the committee disagree. And I bet CMU thinks W&J plays better at home as well.

They think that way, because they were educated to think that way from the NFL and bigtime D1 football.  When the away team is playing in a stadium with 50k+ opposing fans, yes that is a real advantage for the home team.  When the away team is getting on a plane or in D3 a 3 hour+ bus ride, that is an advantage for the home team. 

When you get on a bus and drive 30 minutes from Oakland to Washington PA to play infront of 3,000 people, that is not much of an advantage no matter how loud and rowdy those 3,000 fans are.

With that said, I do agree that they need a standard equation for all conferences and they cannot make an exception for the  PAC.

Come out to an RPI/Union game. Campuses are only 20-25 minutes apart. Attendance is usually 2500-5000. Come on out and tell me there isn't a home field advantage. Do it.

In the last 25 matchups:

RPI @ Home: 10-3
RPI @ Union: 4-8

Same time frame:

RPI Conference Championships: 9
Union Conference Championships: 5
RPI Playoff Appearances: 7
Union Playoff Appearances: 6
RPI Playoff Record: 7-7
Union Playoff Record: 4-6

It's somewhat amazing how teams this evenly matched can not have an exact .500 record Home and Away without a 'Home Field Advantage'. Make it make sense!?!? (You don't need a plane trip or a long ride or 50K fans for there to be a home field advantage. End of conversation.)

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 21, 2024, 12:18:41 PMCome out to an RPI/Union game. Campuses are only 20-25 minutes apart. Attendance is usually 2500-5000. Come on out and tell me there isn't a home field advantage. Do it.

In the last 25 matchups:

RPI @ Home: 10-3
RPI @ Union: 4-8

Same time frame:

RPI Conference Championships: 9
Union Conference Championships: 5
RPI Playoff Appearances: 7
Union Playoff Appearances: 6
RPI Playoff Record: 7-7
Union Playoff Record: 4-6

It's somewhat amazing how teams this evenly matched can not have an exact .500 record Home and Away without a 'Home Field Advantage'. Make it make sense!?!? (You don't need a plane trip or a long ride or 50K fans for there to be a home field advantage. End of conversation.)

So, based on your post, the ONLY factor is deciding winner/loser to be considered is HOME FIELD? There's NOTHING else to consider in RPI's 14-11 mark over the last 25 meetings?  Seriously?

And "End of conversation."  How simply Machiavellian of you...