That's good stuff.  I wonder how the dials will be adjusted (if they are at all) in the next iteration.  I would like to see SOS weighted more heavily, but I'm sure there are a number of programs that favor the current weighting.

Quote from: Retired Old Rat on November 19, 2024, 11:07:46 PMThe guys at D3 Datacast did a really interesting analysis of what happens when you change the NPI weighting for strength of schedule and win percentage.

https://d3datacast.com/2024/11/19/changing-npi-dials-change-2024-d3-football-playoff-field/

You can get some things that you like by adjusting the dials, but kicking out #24 John Carroll out of the field and replacing them with 7-3 Muhlenberg doesn't make much sense. A good SOS that includes margin of victory like Massey etc., has John Carroll with a tougher schedule than Muhlenberg.

Great stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Quote from: AO on November 20, 2024, 10:44:58 AM

Quote from: Retired Old Rat on November 19, 2024, 11:07:46 PMThe guys at D3 Datacast did a really interesting analysis of what happens when you change the NPI weighting for strength of schedule and win percentage.

https://d3datacast.com/2024/11/19/changing-npi-dials-change-2024-d3-football-playoff-field/

You can get some things that you like by adjusting the dials, but kicking out #24 John Carroll out of the field and replacing them with 7-3 Muhlenberg doesn't make much sense. A good SOS that includes margin of victory like Massey etc., has John Carroll with a tougher schedule than Muhlenberg.

This is Logan's beef. We have a SOS metric built for sports with tons of data, games, and cross over games. That isn't FB, we need a SOS built for our sport with only 10 games in a highly regionalized schedule setup. 

Quote from: repete on November 20, 2024, 10:59:58 AMGreat stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Agreed. Lake Forest got very lucky this year to get in using current model. River Falls got the opposite treatment from current model.

Quote from: BiggieSmalls on November 20, 2024, 12:25:22 PM

Quote from: repete on November 20, 2024, 10:59:58 AMGreat stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Agreed. Lake Forest got very lucky this year to get in using current model. River Falls got the opposite treatment from current model.

Lake Forest is not going to get much benefit out of their "seed" but of course they didn't need the NPI to get in the field to begin with as they're an auto-bid.  They're getting a pretty tough matchup against Bethel or Coe and they're going to travel to whichever team wins. The #1 seed for the Johnnies isn't worth much either when geography still gives them the toughest region.

Quote from: BiggieSmalls on November 20, 2024, 12:25:22 PM

Quote from: repete on November 20, 2024, 10:59:58 AMGreat stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Agreed. Lake Forest got very lucky this year to get in using current model. River Falls got the opposite treatment from current model.

That's just patently wrong. Lake Forest got into the playoffs because they were 10-0 and won an auto-bid via winning their conference. UWRF didn't win the WIAC, so they were at the mercy of NPI to make the field.

We can argue if Lake Forest deserved a 2 seed. Subjectively they are not one of the 8 best teams, and if NPI dials had been adjusted, they wouldn't have been. But that's a totally different argument from Lake Forest vs UWRF vs JCU vs Wheaton making the field. One of those teams is not like the others, aka Lake Forest was a Pool A selection.

Quote from: AO on November 20, 2024, 12:32:54 PM

Quote from: BiggieSmalls on November 20, 2024, 12:25:22 PM

Quote from: repete on November 20, 2024, 10:59:58 AMGreat stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Agreed. Lake Forest got very lucky this year to get in using current model. River Falls got the opposite treatment from current model.

Lake Forest is not going to get much benefit out of their "seed" but of course they didn't need the NPI to get in the field to begin with as they're an auto-bid.  They're getting a pretty tough matchup against Bethel or Coe and they're going to travel to whichever team wins. The #1 seed for the Johnnies isn't worth much either when geography still gives them the toughest region.

Saw this on X, but we were 1 game away from Springfield getting the #8 ranking over Lake Forest.  Due to the 500 mile rule, that would've put Cortland in a quad with Springfield and would've left NCC as the #2 seed in St Johns bracket.  Would've been an absolute brutal run out for all teams in the West/Midwest. Essentially would've moved in NCC, Hope/Aurora and moved out Hobart/Susquehanna and than 1 other team.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1859242886404981186

I am loving the amount of sarcastic shade being cast in the "how far can they go" section of the team previews for the playoffs.... 

ARC board is a graveyard, so I'll post here. Coe's D looks really legit. They can stop the run and run it. Key is Bethel being able to get them off schedule against the run.

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 20, 2024, 12:57:32 PM

Quote from: AO on November 20, 2024, 12:32:54 PM

Quote from: BiggieSmalls on November 20, 2024, 12:25:22 PM

Quote from: repete on November 20, 2024, 10:59:58 AMGreat stuff. Lake Forest drops like a stone. That it gets a No. 2 seed is Exhibit 1 about the need to tweak.

Agreed. Lake Forest got very lucky this year to get in using current model. River Falls got the opposite treatment from current model.

Lake Forest is not going to get much benefit out of their "seed" but of course they didn't need the NPI to get in the field to begin with as they're an auto-bid.  They're getting a pretty tough matchup against Bethel or Coe and they're going to travel to whichever team wins. The #1 seed for the Johnnies isn't worth much either when geography still gives them the toughest region.

Saw this on X, but we were 1 game away from Springfield getting the #8 ranking over Lake Forest.  Due to the 500 mile rule, that would've put Cortland in a quad with Springfield and would've left NCC as the #2 seed in St Johns bracket.  Would've been an absolute brutal run out for all teams in the West/Midwest. Essentially would've moved in NCC, Hope/Aurora and moved out Hobart/Susquehanna and than 1 other team.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1859242886404981186

500 miles did not apply to the top 8 seeds.

Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on November 20, 2024, 05:29:23 PMI am loving the amount of sarcastic shade being cast in the "how far can they go" section of the team previews for the playoffs.... 

Been doing that for ... literally ever. I've actually toned it way, way down.
https://d3football.com/playoffs/2015/bracket-uw-oshkosh
https://d3football.com/playoffs/2010/bracket-mtu

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 08:14:19 PMKey is Bethel being able to get them off schedule against the run.

Bethel also needs to limit/eliminate turnovers.
 

Quote from: DuffMan on November 21, 2024, 08:18:31 AM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 08:14:19 PMKey is Bethel being able to get them off schedule against the run.

Bethel also needs to limit/eliminate turnovers.
 

1000%

Looks like it will be very cold on Thanksgiving weekend when SJU plays. Temps in the teens. That worries me with our air attack. Maybe I'm overreacting?