Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 12:11:26 PMJust noticed MHBU's schedule. How is the world did they make it in? Brutal.


MHBU Schedule

They have 2 losses to Hardin-Simmons. HS has the second highest loss value behind St. John's. They have 2 wins against East Texas Baptist and a win vs. UWW..each with win values in the mid 70's. Then they had 2 wins against a 1-8 Howard Payne team. In the end NPI put them there and are favored to win their first playoff game. They had 1 loss to a NAIA team not include in their NPI calculation.

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 20, 2024, 12:08:40 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 11:53:14 AM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 19, 2024, 06:19:43 PMFor those of you who got into the NPI calculations.
D3 Datacast did some analysis if they changed the weights for wins and sos.

https://d3datacast.com/2024/11/19/changing-npi-dials-change-2024-d3-football-playoff-field/

Just slightly turn the dial and Lake Forest goes ghost.

Any idea who long the NPI is in place for? This needs to change ASAP.
Can't have teams rewarded for playing easy schedules and punish teams for playing stiff NC slates.

it was put in place for 2 years, they can then revisit 40/60 current weighting after the conclusion of next season

The main thing your going to have to get use to with NPI no matter what the dials are, NPI doesn't care what our perception of a good team is. You play in a better conference, well I don't see a conference multiplier in the math. You are 5 time champion, well I don't see champion multiplier in the math. You beat some teams by 50, no blowout multiplier. All that matters is wins, your opponents wins and their opponents wins.

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 12:11:26 PMJust noticed MHBU's schedule. How is the world did they make it in? Brutal.


MHBU Schedule

I think there's something to be said for a minimum number of D3 wins or games to make the field. You have to play either 8 D3 games or have 6 D3 wins to be considered for an at large. But that's not a part of the current process. A lot of this is outside of UMHB and the ASC teams' control, and by the rules for 2024 they earned a bid. If a team has to go get 1 or 2 non-division games to fill out their schedule ok, but you still need to earn your way in against D3 teams. If a team hypothetically goes 4-1 against D3 and had the rest of their games against NAIA or D2 teams that's not enough to make the field IMO.

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

Based on what the Datacast guys did, no, it wouldn't have mattered. Wheaton was one of the first four out no matter what the dials were set at.

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 12:49:36 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 12:11:26 PMJust noticed MHBU's schedule. How is the world did they make it in? Brutal.


MHBU Schedule

I think there's something to be said for a minimum number of D3 wins or games to make the field. You have to play either 8 D3 games or have 6 D3 wins to be considered for an at large. But that's not a part of the current process. A lot of this is outside of UMHB and the ASC teams' control, and by the rules for 2024 they earned a bid. If a team has to go get 1 or 2 non-division games to fill out their schedule ok, but you still need to earn your way in against D3 teams. If a team hypothetically goes 4-1 against D3 and had the rest of their games against NAIA or D2 teams that's not enough to make the field IMO.

This is a good point. The only thing is I've heard on multiple podcasts that UMHB struggles getting non-conference teams to play them.

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 01:01:49 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Hit the nail on the head right there.

Would like to know if they ran any scenarios before deciding on this 40/60 NPI nonsense.

Wheaton should do what MHBU did and play teams you've never heard of before and win 90-0 vs playing a WIAC program with this format.

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 01:07:34 PM

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 01:01:49 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Hit the nail on the head right there.

Would like to know if they ran any scenarios before deciding on this 40/60 NPI nonsense.

Wheaton should do what MHBU did and play teams you've never heard of before and win 90-0 vs playing a WIAC program with this format.

CCIW has one non-conference game. In 2026 we'll move to two it looks like. That will provide some more flexibility for all teams in scheduling. The team leaving is WashU. The team I follow, Carroll is 5-0 in non-conference games the last 5 seasons and in those same years 0-5 vs. WashU.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 20, 2024, 12:46:01 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 20, 2024, 12:08:40 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 11:53:14 AM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 19, 2024, 06:19:43 PMFor those of you who got into the NPI calculations.
D3 Datacast did some analysis if they changed the weights for wins and sos.

https://d3datacast.com/2024/11/19/changing-npi-dials-change-2024-d3-football-playoff-field/

Just slightly turn the dial and Lake Forest goes ghost.

Any idea who long the NPI is in place for? This needs to change ASAP.
Can't have teams rewarded for playing easy schedules and punish teams for playing stiff NC slates.

it was put in place for 2 years, they can then revisit 40/60 current weighting after the conclusion of next season

The main thing your going to have to get use to with NPI no matter what the dials are, NPI doesn't care what our perception of a good team is. You play in a better conference, well I don't see a conference multiplier in the math. You are 5 time champion, well I don't see champion multiplier in the math. You beat some teams by 50, no blowout multiplier. All that matters is wins, your opponents wins and their opponents wins.

Great points here.  One thing that is missing from all of the NCAA's metrics whether it is NPI now or even the old system's criteria, is any attention to margins of victory.  MOV is a strong correlator to quality of team, and any set of criteria or formulae that don't include MOV in some way won't accurately tell us which teams should be better than other teams.  There are ways to incorporate scoring margins in the analysis that don't encourage unsportsmanlike activity, but even now it seems that leveraging MOV in these analyses is taboo.  That's the Rubicon that has to be crossed to get to something that is going to more accurately pick out the "best" 12 non-qualifiers. 

In the past, didn't D3 use a selection committee? Just go back to that.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 20, 2024, 12:58:45 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 12:49:36 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 12:11:26 PMJust noticed MHBU's schedule. How is the world did they make it in? Brutal.


MHBU Schedule

I think there's something to be said for a minimum number of D3 wins or games to make the field. You have to play either 8 D3 games or have 6 D3 wins to be considered for an at large. But that's not a part of the current process. A lot of this is outside of UMHB and the ASC teams' control, and by the rules for 2024 they earned a bid. If a team has to go get 1 or 2 non-division games to fill out their schedule ok, but you still need to earn your way in against D3 teams. If a team hypothetically goes 4-1 against D3 and had the rest of their games against NAIA or D2 teams that's not enough to make the field IMO.

This is a good point. The only thing is I've heard on multiple podcasts that UMHB struggles getting non-conference teams to play them.

Totally, I sympathize with a lot of this being out of their control. Combo of being an island league and being really really good, so high cost and low incentive for people to schedule them.

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 01:01:49 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Agreed, Wheaton and the dial tweaking exercise is the perfect example of why there's zero incentive to schedule a top non-con game. I think they need to fix NPI/SOS so that isn't the case, but until they do go find a team that's typically top tier in a weaker conference. The challenge there for consistent playoff teams is a lot of those teams don't want to play you. Which is why they need to fix it. We should reward Wheaton v. UWO, not penalize it.

Quote from: CarollFan on November 20, 2024, 01:17:27 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 01:07:34 PM

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 01:01:49 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Hit the nail on the head right there.

Would like to know if they ran any scenarios before deciding on this 40/60 NPI nonsense.

Wheaton should do what MHBU did and play teams you've never heard of before and win 90-0 vs playing a WIAC program with this format.

CCIW has one non-conference game. In 2026 we'll move to two it looks like. That will provide some more flexibility for all teams in scheduling. The team leaving is WashU. The team I follow, Carroll is 5-0 in non-conference games the last 5 seasons and in those same years 0-5 vs. WashU.

The problem with this is, NCC has enough problems getting 1 non conference game scheduled, let alone 2. Plenty of people want to play bottom tier CCIW teams.

It seems pretty likely that the departure of Wash U from the league will mean that North Central will have to schedule an NAIA team every year, given the lack of incentive under the new criteria for any D3 team with playoff aspirations to face the Cardinals in non-conference play combined with the disinclination of D3 teams who do not have playoff aspirations to willingly get curb-stomped by the Napervillains. The good news for NCC is that the program can use that technically worthless non-conference slot to do a bit of iron-sharpens-iron by annually playing a top-notch NAIA outfit. Good NAIA football teams are comparatively thick on the ground in Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa as compared to the rest of the country.

The way I see it, the combination of the new playoff criteria and the departure of Wash U means that the CCIW will be weaker but have a clearer path to an annual at-large bid, whereas the opposite will be true for the NCAC.

Me, I'm kinda looking forward to seeing an extra non-conference opponent for NPU every season. More variety is a good thing.

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 04:17:16 PM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 20, 2024, 01:17:27 PM

Quote from: SpartanHouse4 on November 20, 2024, 01:07:34 PM

Quote from: USee on November 20, 2024, 01:01:49 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 20, 2024, 11:58:34 AMThe NPI dial experiment would actually make the bubble sting a bit less for Wheaton, no? It wasn't the 40/60 split that did them in.

No. I understand tweaking the dials wouldn't have helped but scheduling UWO, or any other top 25 caliber team is a mistake with this system. What stings is that if UWO beat RF or if NPU beat Carthage/Elmhurst, we would be in. Those things you can't control and the reality is this current format doesn't recognize all playoff worth at large teams. The clear message is: Use what you can control, i.e. schedule a mid tier NCAC/MIAA/IIAC/MWC team and go 9-1. It's a bummer for D3fans but I believe upper echelon teams are going to have even bigger problems than UMHB and WIAC teams (as well as NCC) have had scheduling games going forward.

Hit the nail on the head right there.

Would like to know if they ran any scenarios before deciding on this 40/60 NPI nonsense.

Wheaton should do what MHBU did and play teams you've never heard of before and win 90-0 vs playing a WIAC program with this format.

CCIW has one non-conference game. In 2026 we'll move to two it looks like. That will provide some more flexibility for all teams in scheduling. The team leaving is WashU. The team I follow, Carroll is 5-0 in non-conference games the last 5 seasons and in those same years 0-5 vs. WashU.

The problem with this is, NCC has enough problems getting 1 non conference game scheduled, let alone 2. Plenty of people want to play bottom tier CCIW teams.

In recent years NCC has been forced to play NAIA Robert Morris (2X), Webber International, and Roosevelt due to their inability to schedule within D3. They were able to schedule Wabash one year, and Aurora a couple of times including this year. Another year they were able to schedule D3 Christopher Newport, but had to travel all the way to Virginia to play a regular season game.