FB: American Rivers Conference

Started by admin, August 16, 2005, 05:19:42 AM

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Knights88

Yes, huge props to Coe and congrats on a great season.  Played a great game and had an opportunity to win at the end.  The Bethel defensive line was the difference in the game with 10 sacks and controlling the line of scrimmage. 

It was good to see Geebli from Bethel playing well.  I was there last year for the Wartburg game when he had a terrible leg break.  Great to see him recovered and playing well. 

HansenRatings

Advanced stats preview for Wartburg vs. UW-Platteville. Wartburg is solid across the board – offense, defense, rushing, passing, etc – but not elite like they've been in the last couple years. The opponent adjustments are very kind to UW-Platteville, but they're top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Probably the best matchups for Wartburg are in the run game on both sides. UWP always does a great job protecting their QB, and Wartburg hasn't gotten pressured much this season. I think to get a win they'll need to rely on their DBs to make some impact plays.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

hazzben

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 25, 2024, 01:46:19 PMAdvanced stats preview for Wartburg vs. UW-Platteville. Wartburg is solid across the board – offense, defense, rushing, passing, etc – but not elite like they've been in the last couple years. The opponent adjustments are very kind to UW-Platteville, but they're top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Probably the best matchups for Wartburg are in the run game on both sides. UWP always does a great job protecting their QB, and Wartburg hasn't gotten pressured much this season. I think to get a win they'll need to rely on their DBs to make some impact plays.


In a round with a ton of intriguing matchups this one is near the top of the list. Wartburg has seen a lot of playoff football over the last few seasons, wondering if that might play a role as well.

Am I remembering correctly that Wart was using a two QB system and throwing more than in the past?

HansenRatings

Quote from: hazzben on November 25, 2024, 02:53:29 PMAm I remembering correctly that Wart was using a two QB system and throwing more than in the past?

It's not a 2 QB system like what Linfield is doing (where one is more of a pure passer and the other is their team's leading rusher). Both Markham and Dodd have similar skillsets, but the starter Markham's been dealing with some nagging injuries, so occasionally Dodd will get some significant playing time.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

DriftlessDuhawk

Checking in from my tree stand.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Thankful that we have a place to talk D3 football here!

doolittledog

Checking in from my living room couch. Happy Thanksgiving! Hope everyone has a great day.
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

DriftlessDuhawk

Wartburg pulls off the victory at home over what I thought was a much more talented UWP team. At least I thought this in the games I watched both teams play in the regular season. This, however, did not look to be the case on Saturday. Wartburg dominated the LOS on both sides of the ball and forced turnovers to help them control the game from start to finish. Clearly, I have not given the Knights the respect that they deserve...

hazzben

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on December 02, 2024, 12:57:48 PMWartburg pulls off the victory at home over what I thought was a much more talented UWP team. At least I thought this in the games I watched both teams play in the regular season. This, however, did not look to be the case on Saturday. Wartburg dominated the LOS on both sides of the ball and forced turnovers to help them control the game from start to finish. Clearly, I have not given the Knights the respect that they deserve...

It was a really impressive win for Wartburg. Credit them for leaning hard on the running game (and winning up front) on a very cold day. That's a smart gameplan for cold weather football. And their playoff experience showed up, they made a lot of really big plays in big moments.

Knights88

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on December 02, 2024, 12:57:48 PMWartburg pulls off the victory at home over what I thought was a much more talented UWP team. At least I thought this in the games I watched both teams play in the regular season. This, however, did not look to be the case on Saturday. Wartburg dominated the LOS on both sides of the ball and forced turnovers to help them control the game from start to finish. Clearly, I have not given the Knights the respect that they deserve...

Duhawk, you aren't the only one underestimating Wartburg.  Only one of the D3 "experts" picked Wartburg and on the message boards I don't believe I saw a single post picking the Knights.

Unlike the teams of the past two seasons, this team has had to deal with significantly more injuries.  For the most part the team is getting healthier and starting to play well.  Wartburg controlled both lines of scrimmage vs Plattville and played excellent defensively.  The only long pass play by the Wartburg offense was called back due to penalty (no comment).  The running game looked good with 229 yards and a complementary passing game helped control the clock.

I'm expecting the game with Bethel to be very similar to the game last year in Minnesota; low scoring defensive game.  My key to the game is whether Wartburg is successful running the ball vs a very good defense.  If they can run for 100+ yards (which I believe they will), I think the Knights will win!

hazzben

Quote from: Knights88 on December 03, 2024, 12:30:17 PMI'm expecting the game with Bethel to be very similar to the game last year in Minnesota; low scoring defensive game.  My key to the game is whether Wartburg is successful running the ball vs a very good defense.  If they can run for 100+ yards (which I believe they will), I think the Knights will win!

I'd agree that I expect a similar game from the two defenses. They are both really stinking good with playmakers all over the place.

One major caveat is that Bethel is night and day better at QB. Last years team had a great WR corps but a QB who was very below average. It was the team's achilles heel. In 2023 we averaged 182.45 yds/g, 10 TD's, 6 INT's and 29 pts/g. Our AA WR split time at QB over the last two games to generate some kind of offense.
2024 we are averaging 297 yds/g, 41 TD's, 11 INT's and 48.5 pts/g and have two 1k yd WR's. That production has allowed us to be much more balanced and prevent teams from stacking the box against the run.

Coach Winter nailed it in his press conference yesterday. Whoever protects the ball and can run/stop the run will be in great shape to win this one. We've had a few TO hiccups in the most recent weeks that kept Coe in it and cost us against SJU but also turned the tied against Lake Forest. If we can't stop Rud and the QB run game, or you're getting turnovers like against UWP, we'll be in for a long day. If we are able to be balanced on O (and get Ellingson/Geebli going running the ball) and can stop the run and get pressure up front, long day for Wartburg. My gut says this comes down to the final possession.

USee

Bethel's offense last year was 65% run, 35% pass. They attempted 268 passes in 2023 (156 att for 58%). This year they are almost 50/50 run v pass and have more completions this year than attempts last year. (341 comp on 462 att, 74%). Massive difference in production.

DuffMan

It's because they poached a Johnnie QB.  ;)

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hazzben

Kudos to Wartburg on a great game and season. Classic playoff football with a lot of physicality and great plays on both sides. Your D was as advertised, it was fun to watch the chess match.

Also, credit to Coach Winter. Seems like a class act listening to his postgame presser and midweek comments as well. Credit to the opponents each week while also highlighting what his guys were doing well. It's not easy to tip the cap when your team bows out in a closely fought game. LF coach couldn't do it last week. I've really enjoyed listening to Winter's perspective. With him and Coach Mac so early in their careers, I don't think we've seen the last of these matchups.

Also, credit to both teams for great sportsmanship. Guys battled their guts out and it was haymakers back and forth. But at the end both lines were dapping each other up and expressing respect. Love seeing that. Looks like Wart had some key pieces coming back next year, and I'm sure the cupboard is full.

doolittledog

Congrats to Wartburg.  Another deep run in the playoffs and 3 straight conference seasons undefeated.
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

doolittledog

#44984
I took a look at conference records for UD over the past 10 years. 

UD vs...
Loras - 9-0
NWU.... 8-0
BVU.... 8-1
Luther. 8-1
Simpson 8-1
Coe.... 6-4
Central 3-6
Wartburg 1-8


Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."