Just going by NPI - Hamilton's losses are to number 8 Stockton and 35 F&M, they have wins vs number 26 York and 54 Stevens, and this weekend they play number 3 Wesleyan and number 18 Trinity.  If they sweep - which I don't view as likely even playing at home - they'd probably move into the top 5-7.  The non-conference schedule has been solid overall, which is why they are ranked so highly right now. 

I do think Wes is a very bad match-up for Hamilton because with Cormier and Cameron the Cards have two big, elite wing defenders who they can rotate on Morgan and without a big or at least a typical game from him I don't see where the scoring comes from.  Cameron in particular is highly disruptive. 

Quote from: nescac1 on January 13, 2025, 07:40:58 AMWith a huge weekend of league play ahead, especially among the Wes/Hamilton/Trinity/Amherst quartet (4 of the league's top six in NPI) and Tufts v Williams (the other two), I'd say in terms of Pool C implications for anyone who can go 2-0:

Wesleyan - NCAA tourney lock, in driver's seat for a top seed

Hamilton - essentially a tourney lock, could afford several losses, in great position to host at least a pod

Tufts - near tourney lock, could afford several losses

Williams - in great position, but a good amount more work to do

Amherst - in great position, but a good amount more work to do

Odds are things end up a lot more muddled, of course!

Are you saying that you believe Trinity is the 6th team to maybe get in?

Whoops.  Omitted Trinity by accident.  Near tourney lock with a two-win weekend I'd say, would certainly be a lock with a win over Tufts or Wesleyan in addition. 

You can look at up-to-date Pool C chances now everyday.  https://d3datacast.com/npi/

The NPI is the entirety of selection this year.

You've got 4 NESCACs in very, very good shape, Williams just out and Amherst slightly behind.

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 13, 2025, 11:01:22 AMYou can look at up-to-date Pool C chances now everyday.  https://d3datacast.com/npi/

The NPI is the entirety of selection this year.

You've got 4 NESCACs in very, very good shape, Williams just out and Amherst slightly behind.

Ryan, how accurate do you think the NPI is and could a conference send a team that is outside the NPI, because they win their conference tournament?

Quote from: D3BBALL on January 13, 2025, 11:36:28 AM

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 13, 2025, 11:01:22 AMYou can look at up-to-date Pool C chances now everyday.  https://d3datacast.com/npi/

The NPI is the entirety of selection this year.

You've got 4 NESCACs in very, very good shape, Williams just out and Amherst slightly behind.

Ryan, how accurate do you think the NPI is and could a conference send a team that is outside the NPI, because they win their conference tournament?

Automatic bids absolutely still exist, yes.

Quote from: D3BBALL on January 13, 2025, 11:36:28 AM

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 13, 2025, 11:01:22 AMYou can look at up-to-date Pool C chances now everyday.  https://d3datacast.com/npi/

The NPI is the entirety of selection this year.

You've got 4 NESCACs in very, very good shape, Williams just out and Amherst slightly behind.

Ryan, how accurate do you think the NPI is and could a conference send a team that is outside the NPI, because they win their conference tournament?

Conference tournament winners get an automatic bid.

And the NPI is 100 percent diagnostic. It's the only tool by which at-large bids are given. There is no "human" selection. (Though of course humans set the criteria.)

If you look at the way the datacast presents the NPI data, there's a column for "Pool" which shows "A" next to teams currently leading or predicted to win the auto bid for the conference.  Those will obviously change with conference tourney upsets, but they're effective placeholders for now.

Next to that is the "C" ranking - the order of teams in the at-large selection rankings.  The top 21 from this list will be selected.  No human involvement.  Now, if a team above 21, but currently rated A, happens to lose out on their conference auto-bid, they'll likely take a Pool C place and bump the 21 team.

However, when it gets to conference tourney time, that loss by the higher ranked team will also drop them down the NPI list and might keep them from stealing a bid.  That's the big question come conference tourney time.  The D3datacast will be able to run the numbers pretty regularly - I suspect they'll do it hourly on the last day or two of the season, as final results come in.

We'll know before we see the brackets who is in.  We won't necessarily know how it's bracketed, but we'll also have a pretty secure understanding of the top seeds.  1-8 are getting special protection - avoiding each other until the final eight unless geography requires something different.

Likewise, the Top 16 teams will be in line to host - unless women having first round priority or, again, geography, get in the way.

On the NPI chart, you can also look all the way over to the right.  The last column ranks the current 64 teams projected into the tournament.  You'll see the lower-ranked automatic qualifiers listed there as well.

We don't yet know how precisely the committees will bracket, but I'm guessing they'll start with an auto-populated 1-64 snake and then make adjustments as needed.  Geography might require them to start from scratch in the end, but more likely they'll do their best to stick to a seeded bracket where possible.

Conference opponents can't meet in the first round - and they always try to avoid rematches early - but with everything being new this year, we really won't know much about the process until we see it done.

EDIT to add: The final column to watch, at least over the next few weeks, is the adj win column.  The system only requires teams to keep 13 wins - many teams will hit that 13 win threshold (as defined by adjusted win value - the "adj w" column) this week.  Which means, any wins against weak opponents, those games that might be dragging down the team's NPI, will start to get dropped.  Teams in power conference, winning conference games, will start to move farther up the rankings as they replace weaker wins with stronger ones.  Losses still hurt you - and that will more than offset win replacement, but there will certainly be movement as teams reach 13 wins and beyond this week.

What a first weekend in the NESCAC! Wesleyan certainly looks like the top team currently though Tufts might have something to say about that.

Williams saved its season again vs. Trinity. That matchup has been a defensive battle the last three meetings. Side note, nice to see Declan Porter scoring his first points since March of 2023! We'll see if Trinity can rebound with a weekend at Amherst and Hamilton.

Speaking of, Amherst and Hamilton made the most out of their solo trip to Maine. Bates unfortunately looking like their early season flame is dying out. Same can be said for their ME counterparts in Bowdoin.

Conn and Colby are teams still in the mix though I'm not sure for how long. Colby's offense and Conn's zone will certainly cause problems.

Middlebury looks to be falling fast. Everyone is finally back but they certainly didn't look great in CT. 6 losses in their last 8 games. Saving grace is at least they played two of the top teams already. They definitely need at least a split to get their confidence back up.

Early pick for Game of the Week this weekend has to be Tufts vs. Williams right? We'll see if the Ephs can handle the two bigs for the Jumbos. Another great weekend of basketball awaits!

Ryan - I'm sure I saw this somewhere but can't find it right now, is Zack's NPI formula 100% accurate or is that his best guess at the formula in year 1, sort of like how Drew Pasteur did D3Bubble? As in, can we take that as the bible or not yet?

Quote from: SpringSt7 on January 13, 2025, 01:31:53 PMRyan - I'm sure I saw this somewhere but can't find it right now, is Zack's NPI formula 100% accurate or is that his best guess at the formula in year 1, sort of like how Drew Pasteur did D3Bubble? As in, can we take that as the bible or not yet?

It's matched up for previous years, since some of that data was published.  They also honed it for football, so there's some track record.  Likely any discrepancy we find will be because games were marked incorrectly home/neutral/away somewhere or a game was counted that shouldn't have been.  The NCAA is as likely to make that mistake as the datacast is.

Because it's a fluid system, where you have to run it through a bunch of times to settle on a final result, you might see a variance four or five decimal places in, but it shouldn't be something that would change ranking.

I know there have been some communication with the NCAA stat people to ensure it's accurate.  I'd say 99.99% right now and 100% once the first published numbers come out and any data issues can be ironed out.

Quote from: el_jefe_90 on January 13, 2025, 12:26:21 PMMiddlebury looks to be falling fast. Everyone is finally back but they certainly didn't look great in CT. 6 losses in their last 8 games. Saving grace is at least they played two of the top teams already. They definitely need at least a split to get their confidence back up.

This isn't quite accurate. McKersie is still in street clothes, and Witherington didn't play on Saturday against Wesleyan.

Your larger point holds, however. I don't think full roster participation would have altered the outcomes of either of the games last weekend.

Apologies Bucket!! I didn't see that Witherington wasn't in the lineup on Saturday. Hopefully he's not out for an extended period of time. I also completely had a brain fart on the fact that McKersie hasn't played all year. You would have to think he would have been an important role player up to this point.

Another tough weekend coming up. It's never easy in this conference!

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 13, 2025, 11:59:58 AM1-8 are getting special protection - avoiding each other until the final eight unless geography requires something different.

In football, the top eight were kept apart regardless of geography.

Bowdoin is really hard to figure, eviscerating Colby after a tough league weekend, and the great effort vs Harvard before that.

One thing is for sure - Ray Cuevas is absolutely legit.  Reminiscent of Lucas Hausman in that he's explosive off the bounce, really hard to stay in front of, but a better deep shooter.  Bowdoin has a real star to build around.