Quote from: Happy Calvin Guy on February 26, 2025, 09:53:53 AM

Quote from: Dark Knight on February 26, 2025, 07:40:18 AMHmmm. I hadn't really thought about the fact that that there is a tradeoff between going for steals and solid defense, that a high number of steals may also result in a higher opponent field goal percentage. Nice observation.

Maybe we need some combination stat that includes both factors. Or would that just be defensive efficiency? From D3Datacast, Calvin 86.3 (#4), Trine 89.7 (#15).

Calvin's opponents' points per game:
First 7 games: 78.0 ppg
Next 18 games: 57.9 ppg

It would be interesting to see how Calvin ranks nationally in defensive efficiency during the 18-game win streak.

This is somewhat inexact, but if I remove Calvin's first 7 games from their data, their adjusted defensive efficiency improves from 86.4 (#4) to 84.0 (tied #2). (This also excludes Grace Bible as my ratings only include D3 vs. D3 games).

Offensively they would improve from 108.3 (#93) to 109.3 (#78). Overall they would be something like #10 in my ratings; they are currently #16.

(My ratings do begin to devalue games played earlier in the season, so already some of those games are getting less than 100% weight).

Calvin is one of the hottest teams lately, so whomever they play, I don't see them losing in the semis. If Hope wins tonight, they'll play at Trine, where they got killed...although they did split the season series.

Calvin is Pool A, but between Pool C 16 and Pool C 17, where Trine is Pool C 17). I wonder how bad of a hit each team would take if they lost in the semis. That could be a scenario where BOTH don't make the NCAA tournament, though I don't see either losing their semi-final match.

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 26, 2025, 05:39:24 PMCalvin is one of the hottest teams lately, so whomever they play, I don't see them losing in the semis. If Hope wins tonight, they'll play at Trine, where they got killed...although they did split the season series.

The potential Hope-Trine semifinal would be played at Calvin on Friday, so the Dutchmen wouldn't have to travel far.

I was thinking that, being Friday/Saturday, but the conference tournament tracker stated "semi-finals at higher seeds. Championship at highest seeds."

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 27, 2025, 08:19:09 AMI was thinking that, being Friday/Saturday, but the conference tournament tracker stated "semi-finals at higher seeds. Championship at highest seeds."

#1 seed hosts semis and finals - been that way since the inception of the MIAA tournament in 1992 with two short spans that were exceptions:

2012-2014 when the tournament was only the top 4 seeds, semis at highest seed, finals at highest seed - and most of us fans absolutely hated this format

2021-2022 when the tournament was modified due to Covid

Great moments in d3boards history

Quote from: ChickenHoops on November 19, 2024, 08:20:52 PMIs the Calvin coach on the hot seat?

Quote from: sac on February 27, 2025, 11:45:20 AMGreat moments in d3boards history

Quote from: ChickenHoops on November 19, 2024, 08:20:52 PMIs the Calvin coach on the hot seat?

Good reminder of that post. I've come to think lately that ChickenHoops is the return of an old troll and this is another feather in that nest.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 27, 2025, 02:14:23 PM

Quote from: sac on February 27, 2025, 11:45:20 AMGreat moments in d3boards history

Quote from: ChickenHoops on November 19, 2024, 08:20:52 PMIs the Calvin coach on the hot seat?

I can think of another, and more earthy object

Good reminder of that post. I've come to think lately that ChickenHoops is the return of an old troll and this is another feather in that nest.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 27, 2025, 02:14:23 PM

Quote from: sac on February 27, 2025, 11:45:20 AMGreat moments in d3boards history

Quote from: ChickenHoops on November 19, 2024, 08:20:52 PMIs the Calvin coach on the hot seat?

Good reminder of that post. I've come to think lately that ChickenHoops is the return of an old troll and this is another feather in that nest.

Possibly a feather, but I can think of another, and more odiferous object, that infests the ChickenHoops nest. But we have a family-friendly board, and I want to keep it that way, so I won't mention it. 

Quote from: Dark Knight on February 26, 2025, 07:40:18 AM

Quote from: oldknight on February 23, 2025, 04:48:58 PM

Quote from: GoKnights68 on February 22, 2025, 06:25:05 PMNice 70-53 win by Calvin over Trine today to finish the MIAA undefeated (first time since 2000 I think?).  They got off to 20-2 lead to start, and from there it seemed Calvin sustained about 15-20 point lead throughout the game.  Calvin really is going to have cut back on their turnovers asap if they want to make a run in tourney, should they make it.  They were fortunate that Trine shot so poorly, but nonetheless, a 17 point victory over the defending national champs and second place team is hard to complain about.

It did seem that the only real negative in Calvin's play yesterday was turnovers, but Trine plays fabulous defense, double teaming in unexpected ways and at unexpected times. But when Calvin did avoid the turnover problem, they typically wound up with a high value shot which explains their superior shooting which was the difference in the game. The Knights defenders are also a terrific defensive squad but they seem to take fewer chances than Trine does on that side of the ball. Consequently, I think Trine's shot selection yesterday was inferior to Calvin's which largely explains the shooting disparity. I did think Calvin made several turnovers that appeared to be unforced, but when a ballhandler is expecting to be severely challenged while handling the ball, the urgency--and anxiety--level goes up, and leads to unnecessarily quick and faulty decision making. All in all, a great game to watch, though the inestimable Mrs. OldKnight thought the officiating left something to be desired and didn't match the overall quality of the game.

Hmmm. I hadn't really thought about the fact that that there is a tradeoff between going for steals and solid defense, that a high number of steals may also result in a higher opponent field goal percentage. Nice observation.

Maybe we need some combination stat that includes both factors. Or would that just be defensive efficiency? From D3Datacast, Calvin 86.3 (#4), Trine 89.7 (#15).

Others have made good followup comments, but I will add a few more. I looked at the stat sheet and I see Calvin committed 18 turnovers in the Trine game, while Albion logged in at 14. While the quality of basketball statistics sometimes seem to be less than stellar (especially when the home team's statistician is keeping track of the visitors), those numbers seem about right to me. Both teams had a fair number of turnovers, but Calvin had more as I viewed Saturday's game. What surprised me is that Calvin was credited with 20 points off of Trine's 14 turnovers, while Trine only got 12 points off of Calvin's 18 TO's.

However, after thinking about it more, it seems to me that many of Calvin's turnovers were simply passes that went out of bounds, thus meaning Calvin was able to set up its defense. Going from dim oldknight memory, I recall Calvin getting some picks that led to more breakaways than Trine had.

One more thing before I shut up. The defense of both teams do double team, but they do it differently. Trine regularly double teams the dribbler the instant he crosses the mid-court line. That's terrific when you get a pick because it typically leads to a 2 on 1 or, better yet, a one on nothing. The risk in doing double teams that far from the basket, is that when the ball handler can avoid trouble and advance the ball past the double team, the offense has a brief period of time when it's going 4 on 3, which leads to more open shots and leads to the likelihood of a good shooting percentage.

By contrast, Calvin defenders usually do their double teams when dribble penetration gets the ball handler close to the basket. This is especially true when the dribbler goes baseline, a second defender shows up, and the baseline itself in effect becomes a third defender. As long as the defense rotates quickly, it's lower risk way to employ the double team. Calvin defenders have learned to rotate very well. If they don't, they hear it from the coach. Improvement in Calvin's defense this season goes a long way in explaining the team's undefeated conference season. May it continue.

Semi-finals tonight at Calvin:

Hope vs Trine - Teams split the regular season matchups
D3datacast predicts: Trine 71 Hope 62
Massey predicts: Trine 70 Hope 65

Olivet @ Calvin - Calvin won both regular season meetings
D3datacast predicts: Calvin 80 Olivet 58
Massey predicts: Calvin 78 Olivet 60

FWIW - Hope is on a 10 game MIAA tournament winning streak - last lost in 2021 semis @ Albion

All MIAA awards announced:  https://miaa.org/news/2025/2/27/all-miaa-mens-basketball-2025.aspx

Most Valuable Player
Uchenna Egekeze, Calvin

Defensive Player of the Year
Uchenna Egekeze, Calvin (3)

2025 Men's Basketball All-MIAA First Team
Uchenna Egekeze, Calvin (4)
Emmanuel Megnanglo, Trine (2)
Drew Moore, Trine
Owen Varnado, Calvin (2)
Gabe Quillan, Hope (3)
Conner Schipper, Olivet (2)

2025 Men's Basketball All-MIAA Second Team
Parker Hovey, Hope
Nathan Richardson, Olivet
Nick Seifert, Adrian (2)
Nate Tucker, Trine
Trevin Winkle, Calvin
Marcus Wourman, Hope
(#) Number of multi-time All-MIAA, including career first- and second-team honors


Megnanglo first team?

Trine down by 3 at the half. Could Trine get knocked out of the Pool C running with a loss? They are Pool C 16.

Hope pulls it out. Down 62-60, Hope scores a baseline jumper with about a minute to go. Trine comes down and calls a timeout with about 48 seconds to go. Trine drives to the basket and it's blocked by Hope with about 37 seconds left. There's a foul on the baseline with 10 seconds to go, even though Hope didn't look like they wanted to score with that much time left. Hope hits both FTs to go up 64-62. Hope fouls 5 seconds to go because they have a foul to give. Timeout. After the timeout, Trine drives to the basket out near the 3 pt line and is fouled. 1 and 1 at the line and he misses the front end. Hope rebounds it to win. Wow.

For a while, it seemed the turnover bug might trip up Calvin in their semifinal matchup with Olivet. The well-led Comets are energetic, fearless, hard-working, and have some talented big men in Conner Schipper and Lee Hardy, but lack the depth necessary to compete that way for the full 40. The loss of Lee Hardy to fouls with just under 8 minutes left was keenly felt by Olivet, who had just cut the Calvin lead to 47-44 after Hardy's floater in the lane. From that point, Calvin closed out the game on 16-3 run. Schipper, who logged 37 minutes of PT, was totally exhausted, but Olivet couldn't afford to take him out. I think Conner may have played the entire second half.

As is usually the case, the Knights offense was led by Varnado and Egekeze with 23 and 12, but I thought the excellent play of Parker Swartz was key. Parker netted 9 points, but it was his gritty and stellar defense that really was a difference maker for Bill Sall. We think of Swartz more as an offensive player, but he really is a hard working and  reliable defender, even when matched up against the physically imposing Conner Schipper. Calvin didn't shoot particularly well, particularly in the second half, but survived to take on Hope in the final. The Hope/Trine semifinal was a lot of fun to watch.

Not looking good for Trine. Guilford up on RMC, Chicago up on Washington U, bid thief Clark beating WPI. No finals on those scores yet though