2016 Schedules

[4231CenterBack]

http://athletics.gordon.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc


2016 Gordon Schedule:  Clearly not a great SOS.  They will likely need to win the conference tourney again unless they pretty much run the table and lose in the final.  Getting results against Carthage and Tufts could reduce that necessity and allow a couple of "hiccups".

Quality matches:

Carthage is likely a 50/50 match.  I have never seen them play live but they are a NCAA tourney quality program. They play Wheaton(IL) tough most years so they should be quality.

Tufts is Tufts.  My guess it will be a closer match than last year's 1-0 final in Medford.  That was a 60-40 match in favor of Tufts.  Gordon is losing 2 starters but bring back all of its real difference makers.  Tufts will of course reload but the main advantage they had in last year's match was Kayne et al in the midfield.  They were so athletic.  Gordon likes to have the ball and Tufts closed them down a half second faster than any one else on the schedule. It should be a great match and another good measuring stick for Gordon.

Endicott is always getting better.  That being said I'm skeptical that they can completely replace last year's seniors.  They represented the lion share of the goals and creativity.  Their keeper is fantastic.  The back four is coming back and they are solid and stingy - see 2015 results against Calvin and Williams....and most every match.

Traditionally strong CCC conference teams WNE and Roger Williams were seriously down last year and with newish second year coaches I will be kind and say they are rebuilding.  Nichols was uncharacteristically bad last year. Wentworth was surprisingly good last year and I expect them to be a long shot to sneak into the regional rankings.

Econn St. at last year was a mismatch but heading down to Willamantic is never easy.  ECONN is always athletic and willing to defend with resolve.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah's SOS = .589
Opponents Records = 181-127-33 (.579) non-weighted.

Thanks LastGuy!

[NokeAlum15]

Roanoke College Schedule:

Fri. 2   Messiah         
Sat. 3   N.C. Wesleyan         
Sat. 10   vs. Greensboro @ Lynchburg College         
Sun. 11   vs. Juniata @ Lynchburg         
Sat. 17   Mary Washington         
Wed. 21   Southern Virginia         
Sat. 24   at Emory & Henry *         
Tue. 27   at Stevenson         
Fri. 30   Shenandoah *         

OCTOBER
Wed. 5   at Maryville (Tenn.)         
Sat. 8   at Randolph *         
Wed. 12   East. Mennonite *         
Sat. 15   at Va. Wesleyan *         
Wed. 19   Guilford *            
Sat. 22   Bridgewater (Va.) *         
Wed. 26   at Washington and Lee *         
Sat. 29   Lynchburg *         

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lycoming's schedule is up..


http://athletics.lycoming.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

Brutal is an understatement. I don't see them winning more than 12 games this regular season.

12-5-2 is my early bird prediction. 1 win, 2 losses and 1 tie from the grouping of Rowan, @F&M, @Eastern, @Fords, 1 loss during the home game stretch with Scranton/FSU/CWR, Loss @Messiah, Loss @Oneonta and a tie vs Alvernia in conference. 

Would 13-6-2 put them in with an at-large bid assuming they make the MACC final and lose to Messiah? (Hypothetical situation)
It come's down to the Rutgers Camden example again of what happens if this...

I think if they go 13-6-2 they are a lock with that schedule assuming all those teams live up to expectations like they did last year.

But what happens if they go 11-6-4...then it gets tricky with the ties. Once again all hypothetical!

I still think Rutgers-Camden would have gotten in had they lost to MSU in the NJAC FINAL.  Yes the blemishes were incredibly high, but so was the SOS (most likely top 3 in region) and we've seen UAA schools with blemishes relative to the number of games played by that of an NJAC school; Rochester 2014 10-5-3 record and 4th in the UAA... 8 blemishes in 18 (63.8%) games vs Camden 13-7-2 record over 22 games (63.6%).  A team that had EIGHT blemishes went from not ranked in NCAA Regional Ranking to the #4 slot (in a large region) from the 2nd to 3rd release.   Why would the NCAA slot them in this position if there was not a legitimately strong chance of moving them through, even with a 1-1 week during the secret ranking phase with games vs Stockton and MSU or Rowan in the FINAL. 

If Lycoming were to make the MAC FINAL and fail to earn the AQ, I think we will see them get in with 9 blemishes (a first ever in terms of Pool C I believe).   The parity of the division is growing and I think we will begin to see teams with more blemishes than normal secure spots in the tournament...  If teams are winning 65% of their games and going out playing the most difficult schedule possible... they deserve a shot.  Just my opinion.   

My prediction is that Lycoming starts 2-2-2 in opening 6 games and finishes year with 4 losses (F&M, Haverford, Oneonta, Messiah) and 4 draws (Rowan, Eastern, CWRU, and a random let down) heading into a conference final vs Messiah.   The resume for the season should be enough to get Lyco in.  It's no disrespect to Lycoming, but going from mediocre scheduling history to this will have a big shock factor.  The fact that Lycoming is on the map now and these big time schools have a chance to get a strong result at home will make it that much more competitive.   I cannot see Lycoming winning at Oneonta or Messiah, but can see DRAWS at F&M or Haverford).   I can also see Susqu getting a positive result early in the season hosting the Warriors...  possibly a DRAW

Lyco vs Susqu
2015: Lyco 4, Susqu 2 (late goal in 86th min clinches win for Lyco...  Lyco 17 shots with 6 on target, Susqu 15 with 8 on target)
2014: Susqu 0, Lyco 0
2013: Lyco 1, Susqu 3
2012: Susqu 4, Lyco 0

Lyco with 6 blemishes midway through the season... SOS is .688.   I still think they have a case to get in with the aforementioned potential 9 blemishes.

[Shooter McGavin]

Is that SOS number up to this point for who they have played or total for all the teams on their schedule?

[lastguyoffthebench]

This is just a portion of the SOS; OWP.  With OOWP it could be just as strong.

Up to this point in time... .688

Factor the rest of the season (using teams current records):  .645

Factor the rest of the season (MACC tourney) to include LVC HOME, Messiah AWAY (using current records):   .668