SOS

[PaulNewman]

With so much parity and so many blemishes, I think .550 is probably a safe starting point for Pool Cs.   Granted, there may be some lucky lotto winners for financial/geographical reasons.  I do not think the West is really deserving of more than 1 Pool C bid, unless a big program loses.

It has always been around .550. That is why I am not convinced even with 3 ranked wins Kenyon is a LOCK at .510 or ETOWN at .520. MIT at .540 is bare bones.

I mean .510 used to mean AQ or Bust. That Great Lakes region MIGHT want to glance over to the Central and North regions that have over inflated SOS and RvR but better resumes. I think Monday will be interesting

Except Kenyon has 5 ranked wins now....5-1.  You really think a 16-1 team with 5 ranked wins that won the regular season NCAC shouldn't get a bid?

[Mr.Right]

Not with a .510 SOS. NEVER.

[PaulNewman]

If you can have overly inflated SoS's then makes sense that you also can have overly deflated ones too that a cmte can have room to consider.

[Mr.Right]

Yes we all know the system sucks but if they are using this system and they are doing it quantitatively then .510 cannot get in. I am not picking on kenyon I would be saying this about any team with that type of SOS

[PaulNewman]

Yes we all know the system sucks but if they are using this system and they are doing it quantitatively then .510 cannot get in. I am not picking on kenyon I would be saying this about any team with that type of SOS

No, I'm following your thinking.  It's just a very odd situation.  Are they potentially hosting through 2 weekends, or are they out entirely?  That's a pretty big gulf.  I'm gonna guess (of course) that their winning % and RvR will get them in if they don't win Saturday.  The other thing is that they have head-to-head wins over most of the other ranked teams in the GL region, including CMU.

[Ryan Harmanis]

The last few years we've seen at least one team get into the tournament with a really bad SOS number, so it's been done before:

2014: Texas-Dallas, 13-4-3, 1-0-0 RvR, 0.516 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2013: Salisbury, 16-3-0, 2-2-0 RvR, 0.521 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2012: Christopher Newport, 15-3-2, 3-1-1 RvR, 0.497 SOS, 4th in final regional ranking.
2011: Baldwin-Wallace, 16-4-0, 3-1-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.

2015 Kenyon, if they lose to OWU, would check in at 16-2-0, 5-2-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS.  I think the huge number of ranked wins, plus DePauw and Thomas More (and potentially CMU) losing this week, will be more than enough.  I do, however, think there's a big question whether Kenyon would host if they lose on Saturday.

**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw.  And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough.  I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.

[PaulNewman]

The last few years we've seen at least one team get into the tournament with a really bad SOS number, so it's been done before:

2014: Texas-Dallas, 13-4-3, 1-0-0 RvR, 0.516 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2013: Salisbury, 16-3-0, 2-2-0 RvR, 0.521 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.
2012: Christopher Newport, 15-3-2, 3-1-1 RvR, 0.497 SOS, 4th in final regional ranking.
2011: Baldwin-Wallace, 16-4-0, 3-1-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS, 3rd in final regional ranking.

2015 Kenyon, if they lose to OWU, would check in at 16-2-0, 5-2-0 RvR, 0.510 SOS.  I think the huge number of ranked wins, plus DePauw and Thomas More (and potentially CMU) losing this week, will be more than enough.  I do, however, think there's a big question whether Kenyon would host if they lose on Saturday.

**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw.  And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough.  I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.

Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday.  And the field has not been in great shape anyway.  Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games?  I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.

[PaulNewman]

**But to qualify that, if Kenyon loses they may not pass DePauw.  And if CMU wins Kenyon probably won't pass them either, so Kenyon would be the third GL team needing a bid - which is tough.  I'd need to look deeper at other regions to see just how likely that would be, but Kenyon's profile, standing on its own, matches up with teams from previous seasons.

I would think DPU might drop some based on tonight.  Another RvR loss, 7 blemishes to what would be 2 for Kenyon, etc.  And GL had 2 Pool Cs just from the NCAC alone 2 years ago, and CMU made the tourney also (although I can't recall if CMU had the UAA AQ....maybe they did).

[Ryan Harmanis]

Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday.  And the field has not been in great shape anyway.  Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games?  I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.

Using Flying Weasel's rough method, I have it at 0.519.  So I wouldn't worry about it dropping, but wouldn't expect much of a boost.

[PaulNewman]

Yep, I'm actually hoping they don't host even if they do win Saturday.  And the field has not been in great shape anyway.  Will they get any SoS boost at all from today and Saturday since they were home games?  I was guessing they would get up to .520 or so.

Using Flying Weasel's rough method, I have it at 0.519.  So I wouldn't worry about it dropping, but wouldn't expect much of a boost.

Even .519 is better than .510 

[blooter442]

...and CMU made the tourney also (although I can't recall if CMU had the UAA AQ....maybe they did).

Carnegie got a Pool C in 2013.

2012 was the crazy year they got the AQ in the improbable four-way tie for the UAA title...and they had to go to the second tie breaker to decide who would get the AQ (1st = record vs. other 1st place teams - Brandeis and Carnegie were both 2-1; 2nd = head-to-head matchup, which Carnegie won.)

[lastguyoffthebench]

2014 Pool C (SOS) and 3rd Regional Ranking.     SOS avg was .577; .581 with the outlier of Texas-Dallas .516 removed.

Central                                  RvR
4. North Park    .597    4-3-0
6. Dominican    .545    1-3-1
   
East   
3. Cortland St    .547    2-1-1
4. Rochester      .627    3-2-1    (8-5-3 overall record)
5. Brockport St  .568    1-2-2
   
Great Lakes   
3. OWU              .556    2-2-2
   
Mid-Atlantic   
2. F&M               .573    4-0-1
4. Dickinson        .604             3-3-1   
   
New England   
1. Brandeis         .633    7-2-0
2. Wheaton         .597    2-1-1
3. Coast Guard    .580    2-0-2
4. Amherst          .587    1-0-2
6. Tufts               .576    1-1-2
   
North   
1. Loras               .575    5-0-1
   
South Atlantic   
1. Emory             .603    5-2-1
2. Salisbury         .556    0-0-3
3. Rut-Newark     .557    2-2-0
   
West   
3. Texas-Dallas    .516            1-0-0

This is by far the most interesting and informative item I have read all night. Seriously. Someone should have the task of re-posting this everytime one of these knuckleheads flies loose about RvR and SOS.

Updated with RvR