University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

The DIII Women's Basketball Committee has officially published its first NPI Summary report for the 2024-25 season.  The report includes games through Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025.

With today's victory over WashU, NYU has officially retaken the #1 rating among all D3 women's basketball teams from Illinois Wesleyan.  In the report, NYU officially has an NPI rating of 65.637 (#1 in DIII), while Illinois Wesleyan is #2 at 64.940

All official NPI reports when published can be found at

http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties

Until the final week of the DIII season, The official NPI ranking reports are expected to be published once a week and include games through Sundays.  During conference tournament week (the final week of the DIII regular season), the official NPI reports are expected to be published daily.  The official selections NPI report when published on Selection Sunday will have the date and indicate (selections) on it.

NPI rankings for UAA women's basketball teams through Sunday Feb. 2, 2025, according to the published NPI report--

#1 NYU-- 65.637
#31  Carnegie Mellon-- 58.238
#37  WashU-- 57.085
#46  Emory-- 56.512
#51  UChicago-- 56.383
#80  Brandeis-- 54.989
#87  Rochester-- 54.497
#210  CWRU-- 49.073

[deiscanton]

UAA WBB Bubble Watch

Based on Scott Peterson's 1,000 computer-run season simulations of the remainder of UAA women's race as of Feb. 5, 2025 at 9:45 AM ET.

Lock for AQ-- NYU (3 game lead on rest of field with 7 games left to play-- NYU dominating UAA by average of 40 ppg).

Solid for at-large bid:  Carnegie Mellon-- got an at-large bid in 954 out of the 1,000 simulations.

Bubble-in:  WashU-- got an at-large bid in 740 out of the 1,000 simulations.

The rest of the UAA will probably not get an at-large bid this season-- all remaining teams are probably out (an at-large bid less than 250 times out of the 1,000 simulations.)

Emory got an at-large 116 times out of 1,000.
Chicago got an at-large bid 40 times out of 1,000.
Rochester got an at-large bid 5 times out of 1,000.
Brandeis got an at-large bid 4 times out of 1,000.

CWRU did not get an at-large bid in any of the 1,000 computer season simulations of the UAA women's race run this morning. 

[saratoga]

Should Wash U. lose again this weekend to NYU, then the following weekend at CMU...they will then have at least 7 losses.
I can't see how they can make it over some mid conference 3 or 4 loss team.

[scottiedawg]

Should Wash U. lose again this weekend to NYU, then the following weekend at CMU...they will then have at least 7 losses.
I can't see how they can make it over some mid conference 3 or 4 loss team.

I think they still have a good shot at 18-7, 17-8 is almost certainly out.

[deiscanton]

Should Wash U. lose again this weekend to NYU, then the following weekend at CMU...they will then have at least 7 losses.
I can't see how they can make it over some mid conference 3 or 4 loss team.

At the moment, 7 out of the 8 UAA women's basketball teams have an NPI rating greater than 54, so assuming that remains the case at the end of the season, WashU would get additional QWB points by wins over Emory, Brandeis, Chicago, and Rochester.  Losing again at CWRU would really hurt the Bears, as CWRU won at WashU earlier this season as well, and CWRU is the only UAA women's basketball team with an NPI rating less than 50 right now (49.08 according to the most recent unofficial D3Datacast run done on Wed. Feb. 5, 2025 at 7:19 AM ET-- #214 in Division III).

Of course, my Brandeis Judges may still have a say in this regard tomorrow night, as they play WashU at the Auerbach Arena in Waltham, MA to start WashU's 4 game UAA road trip-- WashU has to win this one to stay on track for an at-large bid along with a win at CWRU the following Friday.

The season simulations assume that WashU will lose at NYU and Carnegie Mellon and still have the Bears at bubble-in with a final NPI of approx. 59.30.    Had we used the NPI to select at-large teams last year, the cut line would have been approx. 58.31 with Arcadia the last team in at 58.31 (#45 in mock DIII NPI) and UChicago the first team out at 58.30.   (#46 in mock DIII NPI).

[saratoga]

It's certainly a fun time to speculate as we head down the stretch.

[deiscanton]

UAA WBB Bubble Watch

Based on Scott Peterson's 1,000 computer-run season simulations of the remainder of UAA women's race as of Feb. 5, 2025 at 9:45 AM ET.

Lock for AQ-- NYU (3 game lead on rest of field with 7 games left to play-- NYU dominating UAA by average of 40 ppg).

Solid for at-large bid:  Carnegie Mellon-- got an at-large bid in 954 out of the 1,000 simulations.

Bubble-in:  WashU-- got an at-large bid in 740 out of the 1,000 simulations.

The rest of the UAA will probably not get an at-large bid this season-- all remaining teams are probably out (an at-large bid less than 250 times out of the 1,000 simulations.)

Emory got an at-large 116 times out of 1,000.
Chicago got an at-large bid 40 times out of 1,000.
Rochester got an at-large bid 5 times out of 1,000.
Brandeis got an at-large bid 4 times out of 1,000.

CWRU did not get an at-large bid in any of the 1,000 computer season simulations of the UAA women's race run this morning. 

UAA WBB Bubble Watch update as of Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025 at 9:45 AM ET.

Move WashU from Bubble-in to Solid-- Today's 1,000 season simulations run has WashU getting an at-large bid in 781 of the 1,000 simulations.  In order to be in the solid category, a team must be projected to get an at-large bid in at least 751 of the 1,000 simulations in the run.  This, of course, assumes that WashU goes 5-2 the rest of the season with the only losses being at NYU and at Carnegie Mellon.

Also in the Solid category-- Carnegie Mellon got an at-large bid in 956 of the 1,000 season simulations (up 2 from yesterday).

In the probably out category:

Emory got an at-large bid in 118 of the 1,000 simulations run today (up 2 from yesterday).
Chicago got an at-large bid in 38 of the 1,000 season simulations run today (down 2 from yesterday).
Brandeis, Rochester, and CWRU results remained the same.

Simulations assume that Brandeis will meet its season stated goal of winning at least 1/3 of their UAA games, as mentioned in the Brandeis student newspaper the Justice at the beginning of the season. 

[deiscanton]

On the Hoopsville show last night, the chair of the D3 Women's Basketball Committee, explained the concept of dropping a loss that would actually benefit your NPI rating if you included the loss in your NPI calculation.

The general principle of this situation is that a team cannot improve its NPI score simply by losing to a strong opponent.  The team actually has to win the game to improve its NPI rating.   If a game NPI score that is produced by losing to a strong opponent is actually higher than the team's current NPI rating, then the team must not count that loss in their NPI calculation, and their NPI rating would remain the same.

As this applies to league play in the UAA right now, currently 7 of the 8 UAA women's basketball teams have an NPI rating above 54.   The exception is CWRU, which has an unofficial D3Datacast NPI rating of 49.24 as of Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025 at 6:24 AM ET, the most recent time that the D3Datacast computer made a run of the NPI ratings using results entered in the Massey system through games of Wednesday, Feb. 5. Officially, the first NCAA DIII women's basketball NPI summary report through games of Sunday, Feb. 2 had CWRU at 49.073 NPI rating. 

NYU unofficially has an NPI rating of 65.74 according to D3Datacast as of this most recent run, and an official rating through games of Sunday, Feb. 2, of 65.637 according to the first NCAA DIII official NPI women's basketball summary report.

Using the unofficial up to date number from D3Datacast, losing to NYU by itself with no other DIII games played would produce a game NPI score right now of 52.592.  If the CWRU women counted the loss to NYU in their NPI calculation, CWRU's NPI rating would actually increase from their current 49.24 rating.

As a result, CWRU must drop the loss to NYU from their NPI calculation, and CWRU's NPI rating would remain frozen at 49.24 as a result.

This is most common with the D3 women's basketball teams who are winless on their season.  In that case, the winless team's NPI rating would be the loss or losses to the team that would produce the worst (or lowest) NPI game score.     

[scottiedawg]

Really good explanation!

And to help people visualize it, here are the highest ranked NPI teams with at least 1 loss dropped. You can see that any team with an NPI low enough where dropping a loss (because the loss's Game NPI is high enough to help that team's overall NPI) happens are for teams far outside the NCAA Tournament At-Large picture.

TeamName-----------------	NPI Rank	Games	Wins	Qualifying Wins	Qualifying Losses	Actual Losses	Losses Dropped
MIT	131	20	9	9	10	11	1
Skidmore	142	19	9	9	9	10	1
Elmhurst	158	20	12	12	6	8	2
Salem MA	170	21	11	11	9	10	1
Edgewood	180	19	12	12	6	7	1
Central IA	190	21	11	11	9	10	1
Loras	201	20	8	8	11	12	1
Willamette	205	18	7	7	10	11	1
Alma	206	21	10	10	10	11	1
Augustana	207	21	9	9	10	12	2
Dubuque	208	20	9	9	10	11	1
WPI	210	20	8	8	10	12	2
Mt. Union	211	20	9	9	10	11	1
Case Western	212	18	6	6	11	12	1
Northwestern MN	213	20	13	13	5	7	2
Puget Sound	214	16	5	5	9	11	2
Husson	216	21	11	11	9	10	1
St. Vincent	217	20	12	12	7	8	1
Kean	218	21	10	10	10	11	1
Benedictine IL	219	20	11	11	8	9	1
Marymount	220	19	6	6	11	13	2

And here are the teams with the most losses dropped:

TeamName------------------	NPI Rank	Games	Wins	Qualifying Wins	Qualifying Losses	Actual Losses	Losses Dropped
Thiel	413	20	0	0	1	20	19
Wilkes	408	20	0	0	2	20	18
Old Westbury	410	20	0	0	2	20	18
SUNY Delhi	416	19	0	0	1	19	18
Cairn	406	19	1	1	3	18	15
Northland	414	16	0	0	1	16	15
Salem NC	411	15	0	0	1	15	14
Franciscan OH	395	20	2	2	5	18	13
Rosemont	402	21	1	1	7	20	13
Hilbert	404	19	1	1	5	18	13
Alverno	405	19	1	1	5	18	13
Wesleyan GA	412	13	0	0	1	13	12
Bard	397	18	1	1	6	17	11
Kenyon	398	18	1	1	6	17	11
Pitt-Greensburg	400	18	2	2	5	16	11
Blackburn	409	17	1	1	5	16	11
Eastern Univ	361	19	1	1	8	18	10
Ramapo	369	21	2	2	9	19	10
Wentworth Tech	383	20	2	2	8	18	10
Beloit	389	21	2	2	9	19	10
Crown MN	401	19	2	2	7	17	10
NVU-Johnson	407	16	1	1	5	15	10
Muskingum	332	19	3	3	7	16	9
Lycoming	374	20	3	3	8	17	9
Centenary	378	18	2	2	7	16	9
Pitt-Bradford	390	15	2	2	4	13	9
Agnes Scott	394	16	2	2	5	14	9
Trinity DC	415	10	0	0	1	10	9
Maranatha Bap	417	10	0	0	1	10	9

[ronk]

 What's the definition of a qualifying loss? And what are the bonuses(NPI points?) that the lady chair mentioned on hoopsville last night?

[scottiedawg]

What's the definition of a qualifying loss? And what are the bonuses(NPI points?) that the lady chair mentioned on hoopsville last night?

A "Qualifying Loss" (not sure if that's an official term or not) is a loss that is counted in a team's NPI. For any team in the running for a Pool C, every loss will be counted for their NPI, thus is a Qualifying Loss.

Losses that help a team's NPI are not included in a team's NPI calculation, thus are not "Qualifying Losses"


The bonuses are the Quality Win Bonus.  If you beat a team whose NPI is above the Quality Win Bonus Threshold, you get some bonus points.

D3Datacast Episode 83 is a permanent bookmark for me — the best, clearest, most comprehensive explanation you'll find: https://youtu.be/xrKp8McryUA?si=Mm2eosvAMFUMD8V5

For WBB, the highest QWB so far this year are:
                                                             

Date--------	Team------------	Opponent-------------	Result	Win Portion	SOS Portion	QWB Portion	Total Game NPI
01/25/25	UW-River Falls	UW-Oshkosh	Win	20.00	50.70	6.25	76.94
11/20/24	MA Dartmouth	Smith	Win	20.00	50.37	5.97	76.34
02/05/25	Johns Hopkins	Gettysburg	Win	20.00	49.93	5.61	75.55
12/20/24	Williams	Gettysburg	Win	20.00	49.93	5.61	75.55
01/18/25	Bethel	Gustavus Adolphus	Win	20.00	49.77	5.48	75.25
11/08/24	Washington & Jefferson	Baldwin Wallace	Win	20.00	49.73	5.44	75.17
11/16/24	Gettysburg	Randolph-Macon	Win	20.00	49.57	5.31	74.88
12/07/24	Bridgewater MA	MA Dartmouth	Win	20.00	48.70	4.58	73.28
12/18/24	Hanover	MA Dartmouth	Win	20.00	48.70	4.58	73.28
01/04/25	U New England	W New England	Win	20.00	48.48	4.40	72.88
11/20/24	Elizabethtown	Catholic	Win	20.00	48.05	4.04	72.09
01/18/25	Scranton	Catholic	Win	20.00	48.05	4.04	72.09
12/04/24	S Virginia	Christopher Newport	Win	20.00	47.91	3.92	71.83
11/17/24	Christopher Newport	Johns Hopkins	Win	20.00	47.80	3.83	71.64
01/11/25	Gettysburg	Johns Hopkins	Win	20.00	47.80	3.83	71.64
11/23/24	Randolph-Macon	Johns Hopkins	Win	20.00	47.80	3.83	71.64
11/20/24	Baldwin Wallace	Trine	Win	20.00	47.80	3.83	71.63
12/29/24	UW-Oshkosh	Trine	Win	20.00	47.80	3.83	71.63
12/16/24	Capital	Ohio Wesleyan	Win	20.00	47.77	3.81	71.58
12/19/24	Rhode Island College	Ohio Wesleyan	Win	20.00	47.77	3.81	71.58

[scottiedawg]

Should Wash U. lose again this weekend to NYU, then the following weekend at CMU...they will then have at least 7 losses.
I can't see how they can make it over some mid conference 3 or 4 loss team.

I think they still have a good shot at 18-7, 17-8 is almost certainly out.

Seems like they still have a 50/50 shot with 8 losses, but after losing tonight to Brandeis, if they lose to NYU next, it would likely take a 5-0 finish to get them into the dance.

[deiscanton]

UAA Women's Bubble Watch--

According to Scottiedawg's 1,000 season simulations computer run conducted Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025 at 10:29 AM ET.

This includes WashU's loss to Brandeis last night.

NYU is the presumptive AQ from the UAA.

Update--

WashU women moved from "Solid" to "Bubble-out"

WashU got an at-large bid 415 times out of the 1,000 season simulations run this morning.  WashU now projected to finish with a record of 17-8.

Carnegie Mellon remains at Solid-- the Tartans got an at-large bid in 966 out of the 1,000 season simulations run this morning.

All other UAA teams remain at "Probably out".-- Those teams got an at-large bid in fewer than 250 out of the 1,000 season simulations.

[deiscanton]

In the official NPI summary report released yesterday, that includes games through Monday, Feb. 17, the UAA has already officially declared the NYU women as the AQ out of the conference and by virtue of that placement of the letters "AQ" beside NYU, as the 2024-25 UAA Women's Basketball Champion.

This summary report can be found at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42974

Brandeis cannot finish ahead of Emory, Wash U, and Chicago in the UAA standings without defeating Carnegie Mellon, as the Judges would have to go 3-0 the rest of the way for a top 4 UAA finish, and any Carnegie Mellon loss down the stretch automatically gives NYU the outright UAA Women's Basketball Championship.

NYU has not swept Carnegie Mellon yet, but clinches the AQ on the second tiebreaker due to better head to head results vs Emory (NYU is 2-0 vs Emory while Carnegie Mellon went 1-1 vs the Eagles), and Chicago (NYU went 2-0 vs Chicago while Carnegie Mellon went 1-1 vs the Maroons.)  Once again, Brandeis cannot finish ahead of both Emory and Chicago in the UAA standings without defeating Carnegie Mellon, and even if Carnegie Mellon beats NYU on Friday, a Carnegie Mellon loss at Brandeis or in Pittsburgh vs CWRU would give NYU the outright UAA championship.

Long story short, there are officially no paths left for the Tartans to get the AQ even if they ended up UAA co-champions.  Therefore, NYU has officially clinched the AQ out of the UAA-- congratulations to the Violets on this accomplishment.  I wanted to wait until after NYU got the next win to clinch the UAA title outright, preferably by the head to head sweep over Carnegie Mellon. 

The NYU women did not take the team picture while unveiling the 2024-25 UAA Women's Basketball Champions banner on the court at the Louis Alexander Palestra at Rochester on Sunday, but that ceremony will most likely happen Friday night at the Paulson Center after the Carnegie Mellon doubleheader, win or lose. 

[deiscanton]

I was watching the replay of the NYU women at Rochester game this morning, and I heard JC DeLass on the PBP mention the UAA game winning streak of the Alia Fischer/Tasha Rodgers WashU dynasty that won 4 national championships in a row from 1998-2001.  Fischer played in 3 of those 4 seasons-- she graduated in 2000, and the streak started in Alia Fischer's sophomore season with the Bears.   Tasha Rodgers was a freshman when the winning streak started, and it ended in her senior year with the Bears. 

However, upon looking at the WashU women's basketball record book, I can understand why JC DeLass miscounted the number of wins in the UAA streak that WashU accomplished.   He announced that the WashU win streak was 39 games-- the Bears actually won 40 UAA games in a row before Dari Magyar's famous "Miracle in Manhattan" 3 pointer at the buzzer shot gave NYU the 65-64 win over WashU in the rematch at Coles Center in 2001. 

The reason why the miscount happened was that the WashU women's basketball record book for the 2000-2001 season did not star WashU's win over Johns Hopkins as a UAA contest that season when it actually was a UAA game.  WashU's 70-57 win over Johns Hopkins that year was UAA win 33, and both NYU and WashU went 14-1 in UAA play that season.  Had JHU not been a UAA game, the UAA records of both NYU and WashU would have been listed at 13-1, not 14-1.  The 2000-2001 season was the last year for Johns Hopkins as a UAA charter member before the Bluejays left the UAA to become an exclusive Centennial Conference member for D3Hoops.

So NYU will not be able to tie WashU's 40 game UAA winning streak this season-- the chance, should it happen, will be in the first UAA contest of the season vs Brandeis next season. 

Coincidentally, after that NYU v WashU game back in 2001 in the Coles Center, WashU then started a separate 32 UAA game winning streak that ended in 2003 in the next to last game of the UAA conference season when Rochester beat WashU 82-73.  I would not be surprised if that Rochester win happened at the Louis Alexander Palestra-- it was very difficult to defeat a Nancy Fahey coached team at the WashU Field House.