2014 Downside Surprise Teams

[PaulNewman]

Obviously this is just to date, and certainly some of the underperformers could reverse fortune by winning their conference tournaments....I'll offer a few that immediately come to mind.

Rutgers-Camden

York

Carleton

Oberlin

Swarthmore

Teetering

Williams

Stevens

Rochester

OWU

DePauw

Montclair St

[PaulNewman]

Forgot Ohio Northern, and maybe Dominican.

[Saint of Old]

Don't sleep on Stevens.
Perfect in conference still, and has a bitter taste in their mouth from last year.

[PaulNewman]

That's why I had the qualifier "Teetering" for that group.  I could see almost any of those making a run, and I would bet at least a couple of them will.

[Flying Weasel]

Rutgers-Camden, York, and Ohio Northern are the obvious ones because of how good they have been in recent years and how far they have fallen this year.  It really is unbelievable.  But I think it speaks to the fact that across the board the level of play in D-III is much higher than it was at the turn of the millennium and that there is more parity and fewer easy outs.  The distance between the top teams and the pack is much less than it once was, so if you slip a little you're going to pay for it with more ties and losses than would have been the case in the 80's and 90's.   

It's certainly unusual for a finalist to do so poorly the next year, but just recently in 2011, three of the previous year's Final Four teams did not make the tournament and two finished with losing records:  Bowdoin (4-7-3), UW-Oshkosh (10-6-2), and Lynchburg (7-9-4).  Things won't be that bad this year as Loras should certainly be back despite their struggles, but it's possible that Williams and Rutgers-Camden miss out.  We'll see.

With Oberlin, the surprise was how well they did last year, not that they aren't doing well this year.  Dominican had already started slipping last year, so not as surprising.

All this makes for a more interesting national picture.  Besides Messiah who goes from strength to strength, it feels very wide open.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Rutgers-Camden, York, and Ohio Northern are the obvious ones because of how good they have been in recent years and how far they have fallen this year.  It really is unbelievable.  But I think it speaks to the fact that across the board the level of play in D-III is much higher than it was at the turn of the millennium and that there is more parity and fewer easy outs.  The distance between the top teams and the pack is much less than it once was, so if you slip a little you're going to pay for it with more ties and losses than would have been the case in the 80's and 90's.   

It's certainly unusual for a finalist to do so poorly the next year, but just recently in 2011, three of the previous year's Final Four teams did not make the tournament and two finished with losing records:  Bowdoin (4-7-3), UW-Oshkosh (10-6-2), and Lynchburg (7-9-4).  Things won't be that bad this year as Loras should certainly be back despite their struggles, but it's possible that Williams and Rutgers-Camden miss out.  We'll see.

With Oberlin, the surprise was how well they did last year, not that they aren't doing well this year.  Dominican had already started slipping last year, so not as surprising.

All this makes for a more interesting national picture.  Besides Messiah who goes from strength to strength, it feels very wide open.

Flying Weasel - very insight comments.  Well researched.  Enjoyed reading.  Thanks!