Player Turnover

[fishercats]

I'm looking for some insights and discussion on player turnover in DIII soccer.

What is the "normal" amount of turnover? - looks to be abour 30% leave on their own or are asked to leave.
What level of turnover is a "red flag"?
Does it vary among different types of program? How?
Is it different between different classes - fr, so, jr, sr?
Why do kids leave?

Any other insights?

A few sources - the number sits at around :
- Brown University - 30 percent of athletes quit respective teams https://www.browndailyherald.com/2016/04/28/30-percent-of-athletes-quit-respective-teams/
- Univ of Chicago - Why Do Athletes Quit? https://www.chicagomaroon.com/article/2019/4/17/athletes-quit/
- https://new.berecruited.com/athletes/521209/blog/011314-36-reasons-why-33-of-college-athletes-quit-cut-or-get-asked-to-leave

[OldNed]

Are you suggesting that 30% leave beyond those seniors who graduate?  That seems awfully high to me, but I don't have any research to back that up.  So for instance, if a team has 30 players each year, you seem to be saying that year to year there will be 9 players who leave beyond those who graduate, do I have that right? 

[d4_Pace]

It seems high when you present it like that. But if you think about it over four years. If a class comes in with 10 guys having 3 depart between freshmen and senior year seems pretty normal.

[OldNed]

It seems high when you present it like that. But if you think about it over four years. If a class comes in with 10 guys having 3 depart between freshmen and senior year seems pretty normal.

Maybe it was a reading comprehension issue on my part  because I was thinking on a year to year basis rather than over 4 years.  If it's over a 4 year period for a single recruiting class, I agree that a 30% turnover rate is probably about right.

[ThankstoJack]

When my daughter was looking at schools a bit more than ten years ago, I looked at the attrition rate for the places she was considering and I remember it being roughly 50% from freshmen to senior year.

After the regular season last fall I pulled all the individual match stats from the NCAA D-III statistical database for an analysis I was contemplating. I never got around to that project but seeing this topic reminded me I had the data. I think this analysis addresses the question with a couple of caveats:

• The NCAA stats data does not appear to have any QC done. It is an upload from each matches boxscore.
  
• This is players who played in at least one match. Most rosters have a few players who never make it into a game. I would speculate they are more likely first years.
  
• A few of the schools don't include class year in the rosters they upload.
  

With that said, it's still a good data set; it's just not perfect.

     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       
     
       
       
       
       
       
       

	men			women
Year	count	pct. chg		count	pct. chg
Fr.	3,930			3,000
So.	3,032	(22.8%)		2,869	(10.4%)
Jr.	2,436	(19.7%)		2,247	(16.4%)
Sr.	2,114	(13.2%)		1,790	(20.3%)
Total	11,512	(46.2%)		9,726	(40.3%)

I have a strong suspicion that these rates vary by success of the program on the pitch almost definitely and possibly by the academic rigor of the institution.

Jim Hutchinson
D3soccer.com