ODAC

[jknezek]

Game week for me. Since I refuse to pay for Flo, my ability to watch W&L games is basically gone. But this week one of my son's and I are going to the games at Covenant. Hoping to see the offense get a little more lively. 2-1 is a better start than the last two years, but really need to find someone who can put the ball in the net.

[Another Mom]

Where's @jknezek with the live report of the W&L games??

I watched most of the Covenant game, though missed the goal in the 3rd minute. The team looked good. Improved on its first few games.

[jknezek]

Well we enjoyed both games. Both wins. I'll be very surprised if either of those opponents makes the tournament. Lynchburg blew them out, W&L grinded them out.

The goals have to come from somewhere. If you are playing offense by committee you are limited. The offense needs a focal point, a secondary when that one is off the field, and then a committee for third is fine. But someone has to be the sharp end of the stick, the killer in front of goal, and I just didn't see it.

Saw some potential in the freshman, but it's hard to be selfish in your first games, it's hard to be selfish when you aren't the leader. And the focus needs to be a little selfish, and it needs to be ok for him to be selfish in that final third.

The defense looks good despite Maryville's two goals. One came with what I believe was an atypical player grouping right after halftime that was very shaky, and the second was a nice breakaway against the run of play with a minute to go. When the preferred group was on the field, they were solid.

But you can't grind out a season like the game against Covenant. You have to find some offense. We found some in the first half against a completely overmatched Maryville, but they adjusted better at halftime than we did and the offense sputtered. One shot off the post late was really it in the second half despite holding most of the possession for the last 30 minutes.

They look a lot like last year. I think they will take Lynchburg to the wire in the ODAC, but without goals it's going to be hard to be confident in any game.

One thing I didn't like was a lot of jawing at each other at times. It was definitely worse with certain player groupings. One thing I did like was composure on the ball all over the field. Over 180 minutes there were only a few bad giveaways, only a few truly dangerous passes. Most of the play was confident, and I loved the tenacity of most of the players. Lose the ball, chase it down, seems to be the team's ethos.

There is a good team here, but I'm afraid it's still missing a major piece.

[CollegeSoccerFan]

There seems to be a clear separation of groupings in this years league.

Lynchburg, W&L, and HSC seem to have separated themselves.

A group of about 6-7 schools that are all very close and will probably yo-yo around each other the rest of the way.

Then 2-3 schools who are bringing up the rear.

[jknezek]

There seems to be a clear separation of groupings in this years league.

Lynchburg, W&L, and HSC seem to have separated themselves.

A group of about 6-7 schools that are all very close and will probably yo-yo around each other the rest of the way.

Then 2-3 schools who are bringing up the rear.

That's pretty typical for the ODAC. 3 or 4 teams that can make the tournament with usually 1 or 2 that clearly should, then a big group of ok teams, and then whoever is terrible.

W&L did not look good against EMU. Have to see if they can play better, but I also didn't expect Lynchburg to tie R-MC. It's a long season and it's hard to play well for all of them. Given soccer's scoring vagaries, it's tough to win them all even when you are dominant, as it appears Lynchburg was over R-MC.

W&L at H-SC Wednesday will be a big one for both teams. The Squids have played a pretty easy schedule, except for Batten, as is their custom. W&L is more battle tested. Will have to see who shows up for both.

Lychburg gets Batten and then H-SC, so they have a few key games to bounce back. I suspect they will without too much trouble.

[CollegeSoccerFan]

There seems to be a clear separation of groupings in this years league.

Lynchburg, W&L, and HSC seem to have separated themselves.

A group of about 6-7 schools that are all very close and will probably yo-yo around each other the rest of the way.

Then 2-3 schools who are bringing up the rear.

That's pretty typical for the ODAC. 3 or 4 teams that can make the tournament with usually 1 or 2 that clearly should, then a big group of ok teams, and then whoever is terrible.

W&L did not look good against EMU. Have to see if they can play better, but I also didn't expect Lynchburg to tie R-MC. It's a long season and it's hard to play well for all of them. Given soccer's scoring vagaries, it's tough to win them all even when you are dominant, as it appears Lynchburg was over R-MC.

W&L at H-SC Wednesday will be a big one for both teams. The Squids have played a pretty easy schedule, except for Batten, as is their custom. W&L is more battle tested. Will have to see who shows up for both.

Lychburg gets Batten and then H-SC, so they have a few key games to bounce back. I suspect they will without too much trouble.

Great assessment. Having said all that W&L is on a 6 game win streak. And while many have said they haven't looked convincing, they keep winning which counts for something. HSC a good test indeed (for both schools).

[generalsfan10]

W&L handling H-SC 3-0 with a few brilliant goals. Nice to see them scoring from open play.

[CollegeSoccerFan]

W&L handling H-SC 3-0 with a few brilliant goals. Nice to see them scoring from open play.

Is the ODAC back to a two horse race?

[jknezek]

W&L handling H-SC 3-0 with a few brilliant goals. Nice to see them scoring from open play.

Is the ODAC back to a two horse race?

Looks likely, but there is a lot of season to play. H-SC seems to like to play soft OOC schedules, but they only have 2 blemishes right now. Margin for error is slim, but a loss to Lynchburg and a deep tournament run probably would have a decent resume, though the SOS would be troublesome. Really though, the Squids look like it after W&L and Lynchburg.

Batten put a final nail in their coffin with the CNU loss. 3 losses, none to ranked opponents, isn't going to help them. Shenandoah looks better than they've been, but lots of blemishes. Losses to JHU and Dickinson don't look as good as they would have looked in years past.

R-MC is a paper tiger. The whole resume so far is resting on that tie with Lynchburg, where they were horribly outplayed. They will lose more games going forward. Bridgewater has some wins over nobodies and some losses to teams that aren't great. They haven't stepped up despite having six wins already. Roanoke has just fallen off the map since last year's fast start. Something has gone horribly wrong with that program.

Guilford, Averett, EMU, Randolph... EMU is probably the best of the bunch. Despite almost tying W&L, they aren't good. They did tie VMI, which is hilarious, though it says more about VMI's 4-8-1 team, with wins over D3 Regent, Randolph and Warren Wilson, than it does about EMU.

[CollegeSoccerFan]

W&L handling H-SC 3-0 with a few brilliant goals. Nice to see them scoring from open play.

Is the ODAC back to a two horse race?

Looks likely, but there is a lot of season to play. H-SC seems to like to play soft OOC schedules, but they only have 2 blemishes right now. Margin for error is slim, but a loss to Lynchburg and a deep tournament run probably would have a decent resume, though the SOS would be troublesome. Really though, the Squids look like it after W&L and Lynchburg.

Batten put a final nail in their coffin with the CNU loss. 3 losses, none to ranked opponents, isn't going to help them. Shenandoah looks better than they've been, but lots of blemishes. Losses to JHU and Dickinson don't look as good as they would have looked in years past.

R-MC is a paper tiger. The whole resume so far is resting on that tie with Lynchburg, where they were horribly outplayed. They will lose more games going forward. Bridgewater has some wins over nobodies and some losses to teams that aren't great. They haven't stepped up despite having six wins already. Roanoke has just fallen off the map since last year's fast start. Something has gone horribly wrong with that program.

Guilford, Averett, EMU, Randolph... EMU is probably the best of the bunch. Despite almost tying W&L, they aren't good. They did tie VMI, which is hilarious, though it says more about VMI's 4-8-1 team, with wins over D3 Regent, Randolph and Warren Wilson, than it does about EMU.

It seemed this league used to be Lynchburg, Roanoke, W&L, Batten (Virgina Wesleyan) on any given year. Does anyone have insight on whats happened to the parity in the league?

Also, very kind to include Averett with the bottom 4. They have been dreadful this year.

[Hopkins92]

While I'd somewhat agree about Dickinson, Hopkins is now 7-2-1 and is in the top 20 in the NPI.

As mentioned, lots of games left, but right now a loss to Hopkins is not a drag on your rating.

[jknezek]

It seemed this league used to be Lynchburg, Roanoke, W&L, Batten (Virgina Wesleyan) on any given year. Does anyone have insight on whats happened to the parity in the league?

Also, very kind to include Averett with the bottom 4. They have been dreadful this year.

I think it just depends on what timeframe you are interested in. If you look at all time ODAC men's soccer titles, found here: https://odaconline.com/sports/2023/7/3/MSOC_0703230335.aspx Lynchburg has more titles than Va Wes (Batten) and Roanoke combined at 2 and 3. W&L is a more recent player, largely.

But looking at the top 4 (reg season) since 2009/2010:

2009, Batten, Lynchburg, H-SC, Roanoke
2010, Lynchburg, Roanoke, Batten, Guilford
2011, Roanoke, EMU, W&L, Randolph
2012, Roanoke, W&L, Lynchburg, Guilford
2013, Randolph, Batten, Lynchburg, W&L
2014, Roanoke, Batten, Lynchburg, H-SC
2015, W&L, Randolph, Lynchburg, Roanoke
2016, Lynchburg, W&L, Roanoke, R-MC
2017, Lynchburg, Roanoke, W&L, R-MC
2018, W&L, Lynchburg, Roanoke, Bridgewater
2019, H-SC, W&L, Roanoke, Lynchburg
2020, H-SC, W&L, R-MC, Lynchburg    **** COVID shortened season ****
2021, W&L, Lynchburg, R-MC, Randolph
2022, Lynchburg, W&L, Batten, Roanoke
2023, W&L, Lynchburg, Batten, Shenandoah
2024, Lynchburg, W&L, Batten, H-SC
2025, Lynchburg, W&L, H-SC, Bridgewater

Over these 16 seasons, Lynchburg, W&L and Roanoke have been consistent, you are correct. Lynchburg showing up 15 of 16 times, W&L 14 of 16, and Roanoke 10 of 16, though the last 3 have been rough. Batten is in 6 times, 3 at the beginning and 3 at the end. Randolph, H-SC, R-MC and Guilford make up most of the rest in various runs.

So why has Roanoke fallen off? Not sure. Same coach, Pflugrad, but he's been there since 2013. Coaching D3 soccer is a hard grind. I think sometimes coaches struggle to maintain the same intensity/passion decade after decade. I have no idea if that is the case here. Just a thought.

For Batten, Kohler is in his 4th season. Seems like his first few years went well, but last year tailed and this year is not starting well. It's all his guys at this point, might be an issue. Most of Batten's success came under Sonny Travis in the 90s and early 2000s. I know when I was at W&L in the late 90s, Va Wes was the team to beat. But as I showed above, they just haven't been consistently in the top 4 for the last decade plus.

Most of W&L's success starts with Mike Singleton coming in 2014. Coach Piranian was there from 1976 to 2014. The team had a few good years, but was never a national power and I don't think that was Piranian's mindset. I loved the guy, but he was pretty happy being a decent ODAC team. Singleton pushed W&L to the top of the ODAC, to the Final Four twice, and now we are seeing Shabazz keep it going at least at the top of the ODAC and a nationally ranked program. But that was never really W&L until Singleton arrived on campus.

For Lynchburg, Coach Yeager has been there since 2002. The program was in a lull before he arrived. Lynchburg had won 10 of the first 12 ODAC soccer championships, but there was a dry spell in the 90s until Yeager arrived. From 89-01, Lynchburg went 82-144-9 under 3 coaches, so the program was... not good. I don't remember anyone getting fired up about Lynchburg when I was at W&L. But Yeager has been fantastic. He took the program back to the top of the ODAC, to new heights as a national runner-up, and has maintained that not just during the period above, but even most of the decade before.

To me, having a good soccer program, or really any good D3 sports program, needs 3 components:

1) Facilities. W&L, Roanoke, Lynchburg, all have great soccer facilities. I don't know about Batten or the other ODAC schools, but I suspect some do and some don't.

2) Administration support. You have to have it. Coaches need recruiting budgets, OOC budgets, equipment, and, especially for the higher academic schools, some admissions help.

3) This is the most important in my opinion, the right coach. Lynchburg is the example for this, W&L too. The wrong coach can wreck a successful program, the right one can take it to new heights. Some can maintain success, some are like fireworks, big bangs but short times.

What has happened to Roanoke? I don't know. The school itself hit some rough times but seems to be recovering. Or maybe the addition of football has stripped some resources and support. Or maybe the coach has just changed his intensity. Or maybe just some unlucky injuries. I really don't know.

Batten? They just haven't been consistent in a long time. Two good runs in a 15 year period. Hard to put them up there as part of the top of the league on a consistent basis.

[CollegeSoccerFan]

Thanks for the breakdown. Very good information

[jknezek]

ODAC NPI through 10/4

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/52809

It's still early, but H-SC has some work to do at 48. If I remember, 44 was about the last at-large in '25. W&L and Lynchburg look good, just have to keep winning. No one else is looking all that hopeful. RMC is leading a suspended game against W&J. No idea if that will be finished but it would give a team with only 7 results so far another win.

Batten and Roanoke have 4 wins between them. Something has gone wrong in those programs. Winless Averett is 399th out of 408.... any school looking to make the tournament is going to need enough wins to drop them. Randolph and EMU as well...