Bracket Projection - 2023

WRMUalum13 · December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM

Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.

D3Navy · December 10, 2023, 10:11:35 PM

If a team can sustain long, time consuming drives, gain a positive turnover differential, and stop a couple of explosive scores they have a chance.

Doing this is quite unlikely, however.

NCC2010 · December 11, 2023, 10:58:07 AM

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.

Elite defenses have been the key vs NCC in their recent run.

2019 - only loss to Wheaton, Dallas McRae was the 2019 national DPOY

2021 - only loss to UMHB, Jefferson Fritz was the 2021 national DPOY

2022 - undefeated. Mount Union held them to 28 points in title game and i dont have any stats but they were definitely an elite D and probably top 5 in most categories.

2023 - lowest point total of season @ Wartburg, Owen Grover 2023 national DPOY??

History suggests you need an elite defense along with the DPOY to slow them down.

Ice Bear · December 11, 2023, 11:15:05 AM

I am a Northeast guy and I am admittedly ecstatic with Cortland being in the Stagg. This is a special Red Dragon team that is well coached and has an offense that is rolling on all cylinders. For a team from the Northeast/New York State/Region 2 they have already accomplished so much and have had a magical season. I couldn't be more proud. With that being said, if I'm being honest I don't feel the two sides of the bracket were balanced. This is no fault of the Red Dragons as they have taken care of what has been put in front of them each round in a surprising manner.

I said it before and I'll say it again, UW-L, NCC, Wartburg, and UWW were almost definitely the best 4 teams in the nation. In an absolute righteous bracket they would have been the final four teams alive. I will say that Cortland has really surprised and impressed me over the last two weeks. I was quite sure their run was going to end out at Alma. This offense has just found it's groove and neither Alma or RMC was able to keep up. I am REALLY hoping for an injury free, competitive Stagg Bowl that entertains all and proves to be an amazing experience for all the student athletes.

Come Friday I favor NCC by three to four TD's. I just don't believe the Red Dragon D, who absolutely stuffed the Yellowjackets on Saturday, will be able to slow down a team as talented as NCC. I also think the NCC defense will be able to slow down this Red Dragon offense enough to keep the score from being close. I feel NCC and the Mid Western and Western regions as a whole deserve the clear nod here as it has been decades since a team from the Northeast has made the Stagg. Any skepticism and even frustration from other fans of traditional playoff programs is understood, at least by me. I do hope that everyone will give the Red Dragons some respect and love for what they have accomplished regardless because the Red Dragon players, coaches, and alumni really do deserve it. While they are maybe not on a top 1-4 team in the nation, they are a group of high performing student athletes who have competed their tails off for a shot at the National Championship. I've been wrong before and I'm hoping I'm wrong again. NCC 56 Cortland 17

Ralph Turner · December 11, 2023, 03:42:03 PM

+1 Ice Bear. I appreciate the analysis coming from a veteran observer from that part of the country.

D3fanboy · December 11, 2023, 04:35:39 PM

you need either an elite defense or a very opportunistic defense to take on NCC. you have to limit the NCC possessions, either by getting stops, turnovers or hopefully both. There were probably only 1 or 2 of those types of defenses this year in the nation. And the ball has to bounce your way...Wartburg was a bounce the "right way" from a couple of huge fumble recoveries...tough.

But then you also have to have an offense. The '23 NCC defense is not the '22 defense, there are vulnerabilities. It seems like an up-tempo offense works a little better vs NCC, but that is sort of contradictory to limiting NCC offensive possessions. The Cortland QB is going to need a D3 legend type of night.

I think Cortland needs a 59-57 type of game in order to have a slight chance to win and I don't think that they have enough to get to that. NCC easily wins every other type of game.

Ice Bear · December 12, 2023, 08:39:56 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 11, 2023, 03:42:03 PM
+1 Ice Bear. I appreciate the analysis coming from a veteran observer from that part of the country.

Thank you Ralph and a +k right back at you.

Ralph Turner · December 15, 2023, 08:08:59 PM

Bornpowerindex has NCC by 13.
Lazindex has NCC by 6.

WRMUalum13 · December 15, 2023, 10:43:17 PM

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.

... well this didn't age well

Ice Bear · December 15, 2023, 10:50:34 PM

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 15, 2023, 10:43:17 PM
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 10, 2023, 04:03:44 PM
Can anyone see a realistic path to Victory for Cortland? I'm hoping so much for a competitive Stagg Bowl, but it seems like having an elite defense is the only way to play with NCC.

... well this didn't age well

+k for the honesty and hey, I'm an east guy and I am right there with you WRM. I watched Cortland a bunch this season and while I was blown away by their offensive prowess I simply looked at the last two decades to set aside any hopes that they were this good. I think I had NCC by 4+ TD's. That was just a great game by two great teams. A game that I too couldn't have been more wrong about.