WBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

Bammer · February 08, 2010, 03:03:54 PM

Not a statement win but a good win. A statement win is the one last year when the Generals beat the RMC team with Arial, Hiltunen and Riesbeck, practically the ODAC all star team. You win the ones that you should win and get some of the ones that people don't think you can win. As you point out with the RMC and Lynchburg game, it is not always easy to get a team up for a team that they think they should beat. Look at Brdigewater after their big win when they went to Guilford.

RVAHokie · February 08, 2010, 05:49:00 PM

I am new to the ODAC but I started thinking about the last few weeks of the season and wondered if there was a way to "rank" the remaining schedules. This is far from scientific but see what you think. There are 12 games left between the top 7 teams.

Take the top 7 in the Conference and chart their remaining conference games. For each game I assigned points to each team based on their opponent. For example, if Roanoke was playing W&L, Roanoke got 3 points for that game and W&L got 1 point. If you are playing a team outside the top 7, you get 10 points for that game. I took the total for each team and divided it by the number of games left to get an average "strength of opponent". And the results are (remember lower number means tougher home stretch of games)-

W&L - 4.6
EMU - 4.67
Roanoke - 5.5
Guilford - 6.2
Va Wesleyan - 6.33
RMC - 6.8
Bridgewater - 7.6

What does all this mean - probably not a bunch. But Roanoke has a two game edge on RMC, which has a 2 game edge on 3 teams. If the 3 through 7 teams beat up on each other, the seeding for the tournament should get interesting. Bridgewater has 3 games against teams not in the top 7, so that could defnitely help them make up the one game deficit to the group ahead of them. W&L has to play #1 and #2, they have to find a way to beat one of them to have a chance for a seeding in the top half.

Given these numbers I would suspect that it will finish-
Roanoke
RMC
VWC
Bridgewater

We'll see......

dukeofargyle · February 09, 2010, 08:11:03 AM

Quote from: RVAHokie on February 08, 2010, 02:32:00 PM
Definitely not a signature win, but Lynchburg was hot from behind the arc in the second half. W&L played well down the stretch without Herman (foul trouble). Free-throw shooting was definitely an issue for the Gennies until the final few minutes.

The two last second losses to VWC will probably end up making a big difference to W&L in final standings. Of the top 7 teams today, Other than Roanoke and Bridgewater, the others still have at least 4 games against each other. The final standings at least from 2 thorugh 7 could be a moving target for the last two weeks. Let the Games Begin!

Hokie, Actually, W&L had 3 buzzer beating losses- two to VWC and one to Guilford at their house in December. Also interesting to note that the Gennies lost to Roanoke in Salem by only 3 in the first round.

I agree that strength of schedule can be a randomly accurate mathematical way of determining eventual outcome – and it can be an enjoyable pastime at this point in season. If you have 2 games left and one is against Roanoke and the other is against RMC it will be a harder road than if you have 2 left against Randolph and let's say, Guilford. Still, IMO, it means more in the beginning of the season than at the end. The beauty of this particular season in the ODAC is that there is so much more parity in the middle rankings than in previous years.

Most teams at the end of season have a lot of factors you really can't add up, such as seeding, complacency (or overconfidence!), injuries, resting certain players, player or coach burn-out, home or away games, etc. Also, the person who is determining the "strength of schedule" also inevitably has his or her bias in the mix. It really only works out if it's really unbalanced: like let's say W&L playing Connecticut and Tennessee, while RMC plays Hollins and then play the Little Sisters of the Poor. (Though I do hear that those nuns can be a tough draw at times).

RVAHokie · February 09, 2010, 08:25:41 AM

You're spot on that the "intangibles" are more important in Febuary than in December. The other thing that is playing a role and can't be measured is the reschedules and postponements.

The other large impact is the standings and the point in time they are taken for the formula. W&L is currently third but by 1/2 game. By the end of the evening tonight, they could be tied for 5th which would change the results of my model. It will be interesting to track actual results against the model for the remainder of the regular season and see what happens.

Bammer · February 09, 2010, 09:01:16 AM

Good match-ups tonight. Any predictions

EMU - RMC picking RMC
Bridgewater - VWC going with the home team VWC
Guilford - Lynchburg once again the home team Lynchburg
E&H - W&L size advantage going with W&L

RVAHokie · February 09, 2010, 01:04:59 PM

Definitely RMC at home (tip has been moved to 5PM for weather), Bridgewater, Guilford and W&L.

Bridgewater - VWC - BW beat VWC by 33 about 3 weeks ago - there must be a story behind that score, can it happen again? Weather may impact this one...

hoopstermom · February 09, 2010, 08:49:43 PM

Results:
RMC over EMU 61-52
GC over LC 69-47
W&L over EMU 88-53

BC and VWC going to OT!! 57-57

dukeofargyle · February 09, 2010, 09:14:15 PM

Final on that game: BC - 75 to VWC - 61.

Had to be a hard loss for VWC.

RVAHokie · February 09, 2010, 10:03:58 PM

Watching the live stats on the VWC-Bridgewater game, I became very confused. Up by 4 with just over 1 minute left, VWC kept fouling. Was anyone there that can explain what was going on the final 2 minutes or so? It became a foul shot contest and BC took advantage and took it to overtime.

Went to the RMC game, if Molly hadn't been plagued by foul trouble, this game would not have been close. O'Briant's right shoulder had a healthy dose of k-tape on it and she was noticeably favoring it but she played tough in pain.

dukeofargyle · February 10, 2010, 08:00:44 AM

Quote from: RVAHokie on February 09, 2010, 10:03:58 PM
Watching the live stats on the VWC-Bridgewater game, I became very confused. Up by 4 with just over 1 minute left, VWC kept fouling. Was anyone there that can explain what was going on the final 2 minutes or so? It became a foul shot contest and BC took advantage and took it to overtime.

Went to the RMC game, if Molly hadn't been plagued by foul trouble, this game would not have been close. O'Briant's right shoulder had a healthy dose of k-tape on it and she was noticeably favoring it but she played tough in pain.

50 ARIAIL, Molly....... * 9-15 0-0 3-4 3 3 6 3 21 1 0 1 2 24
15 O'BRIANT, Jennifer.. * 2-8 0-5 2-2 0 4 4 2 6 4 2 1 1 30

Hokie, Molly's stats for the EMU game seem right on track with her season averages; her 3 fouls were close to her season average of 2.5 per game, as well as in her minutes played. Though maybe you saw more in watching the game than the stats can show.

Still, O'Briant had to be the hero of this game if she played through 30 minutes plagued by an hurt shoulder.

Also, keep in mind that EMU's great post player Danielle Scott, is still riding the bench with an injury. No telling if she will be OK by playoff time.

I also watched the live stats at the BC-VWC game and was confused at what the game plan would be if you were VWC's Stephany Dunmyer.

In any case, it should be a real exciting two weeks coming up, folks.

RVAHokie · February 10, 2010, 08:19:54 AM

Duke,
You are right about Molly's stats for the game, but to be honest, she sat for long periods. When she was on the floor, she scored everytime she touched the ball. Obviously EMU had no answer defensively for her without their post player.

bigrips77 · February 10, 2010, 09:01:48 AM

Quote from: RVAHokie on February 09, 2010, 10:03:58 PM
Watching the live stats on the VWC-Bridgewater game, I became very confused. Up by 4 with just over 1 minute left, VWC kept fouling. Was anyone there that can explain what was going on the final 2 minutes or so?

The Marlins had played most of regulation from behind, and finally took the lead with two minutes to go in regulation. I think the game plan was to still get after it defensively, even when it became a four point game. It cost them a couple critical fouls that the Eagles turned into points, and then the wheels came off for VWC in OT.

bballfan20 · February 10, 2010, 10:08:47 AM

Anyone think VWU can upset EMU tomorrow?

Bammer · February 10, 2010, 10:45:06 AM

Didn't LC have several key players leave/transfer from last year? I do think that a D3 coach has a challenging job due to recruiting issues. You have to have the players to execute the best laid plans. Tough 4 games ahead for the Generals. Can they hang onto third place? I believe that would be their best regular season finish ever. Good job by Coach King and Abby Pyzik on handling and bringing along a young team. Talk about a tough job, recruiting at W&L. Such tough academic standards to get into the school and then the work load to stay there. Last years team had one of the best team GPA in the country. Great job Generals

bballfan20 · February 10, 2010, 10:55:57 AM

yea 2 starters quit/ were dismissed depending on whos story you get, and another starter transfered to roanoke. and yea washington lee is a very good school, and their ability to field good teams despite their very high academic standards is quite amazing. And may i add they have a very nice campus compared to many schools in the area, or the country for that matter.