MBB: Liberty League

[Bartman]

So as expected the LL did not sniff an at large, Pool C,  tournament bid. I'm not claiming anyone earned one BUT...

Three weeks ago (2/10) I uncovered what I thought was an abnormality and potential head scratcher. It involved the Regional Rankings and how one conference, the UAA had numerous teams ranked thus opening the door for them to have multiple teams picked as Pool C participants. I just checked the tourney bracket and sure enough in addition to the UAA champion Case Western Reserve they also had 4 additional teams make the field....NYU,Emory,Washington U and Rochester.  Of course the one that jumps out to Liberty League fans is the Yellowjackets, somehow chosen despite their 6-8 league record and the fact that they lost 6 of their last 9 games!  BTW in games versus LL opponents this season Rochester was 1-1 beating Ithaca and losing to Hobart. Do you have a comment Bartman?

Hobart beat the Yellowjackets and was a great indication of the strength of the LL, although the cannabalization this season didn't help. I do think the UAA is a overrated . I think if Ithaca made it to the finals and SLU beat them, the Bombers had a chance at a pool C. Unfortunately everyone else had to win the LL tourney to get in. The only team that Hobart played in the region that was clearly a step above was Oswego. Good luck to the Saints.

[Caz Bombers]

St. Lawrence getting absolutely stomped out. This conference needs to get a lot better. We're far behind even our friends in the E8 and SUNYAC at the kiddie table in Region 3.

[stlawus]

Tough way to end the season for sure, but this team is 2 seasons removed from an 8 win campaign.  Would have liked the game to be more competitive, but sometimes it's the luck of the draw with opponents come tourney time and they drew a bad one.  Mary Washington starts three 5th year players and they certainly played like a veteran team.  Definitely a reason why they gave RMC their only loss of the season. 

[stlawus]

Saw a comment on the NESCAC board about players lost to graduation.  I tried this last year and let's just say my predictions did not work out.  With the covid year it's impossible to tell.  That being said, there are players we know are not coming back from an eligibility stand point.   

Ithaca:  Loses four 5th year players in Sikoryak, Sinon, Radovich and Warech.   That's a lot of production on both ends of the court to replace.  Sikoryak has been their point guard for years, Radovich is a two time LL first team player, Warech is one of their best shooters and Sinon is far and away the team's best defender.    I know they have 2 seniors this year who will return for a 5th year next season (Spellman and Stern) and they have some nice pieces coming back as is (most notably Wendell), so they'll probably be ok next year.  Still, that's a lot to replace. 

SLU:  All seniors technically have a covid year but I don't foresee any returning.  Unlike RPI and Ithaca, SLU doesn't have the graduate school apparatus like those schools do so it's a lot harder for athletes to exercise the 5th year.  They've had some over the last year or 2, but there is only 1 graduate program which limits the options. Technically there are options to attend graduate school across route 11 at Clarkson (I know football players have done this), but as it stands I predict all seniors on this year's squad will graduate.    They still bring a good deal back including the starting back court, so I expect them to compete for the top next year as well.  One more summer for Andrew Cowan should solidify him as the starting center, and from there it's only a question of who starts at the 4 (or fourth guard).  Carter Storey was a good 6th man this season so there's a good chance it will be him. 

RPI loses Dom Black, who as everyone knows won 3 straight defensive player of the year awards.  RPI started a lot of seniors this year but again, with all of them having an extra year of eligibility who really knows if some or any are actually graduating.  No matter what, given Gilbride's coaching prowess I would expect RPI to compete for a league title next year.

Hobart loses Jackson Meshanic.  This will probably be the biggest single graduation impact in the league. Hobart is a solid team, but Meshanic was the guy.  They were clearly a different team when he was out of the game.  If his younger brothers keep developing then that would greatly help the Statesmen out.  That being said, I would not be surprised to see Hobart have as good of a year next season or even improve next season.  There are seniors on the team, but all have eligibility.   They always recruit well so I'll never count them out.

Skidmore is a wild card.  Skoric is out of eligibility as is his backup in Stratts.   Will definitely be hard to replace that much rim protection and rebounding.  However, the younger brother was a freshman this season with as much size, so we'll see how he develops.  If he can even come close to playing like his brother the Thoroughbreds will be set in the front court for quite a while.  Kupstas is a senior but has eligibility remaining.  I know he has pro aspirations, so I'm not sure if he comes back or moves on to the next phase of his playing career.   Greene is a senior with eligibility so again, it's impossible to know if he leaves or stays.  Basically, Skidmore is a wild card.  They had some great wins this season but also some bad losses.  Lack of depth really hurt them, so I suspect Burke is trying to get as many seniors back for next year as he can. 

Vassar was the one prediction I got right.  I said several times that I wouldn't be surprised to see them regress, as it's common for teams to do so after having unexpectedly good seasons the year before.   A lot of this can be attributed to Zach Johnson's injury, but they had a few players not put up the same numbers, most notably from a 3PT shooting perspective.   All 5 senior starters have another season of eligibility, but Vassar is similar to SLU with regard to its graduate options so who knows what will happen.

RIT has a decent amount of seniors with eligibility remaining, and with RIT's graduate apparatus they all have several options for a 5th year.  I was a bit disappointed with RIT this year, they started decently and brought back a good number of veterans but like most years their defense let them down.   They have a few solid underclassmen so they'll be hoping this summer yields some development.

Clarkson was another team that probably underachieved.  They managed to sweep SLU this season which was big, but otherwise lost games they shouldn't have.   Beating Hobart was a good achievement, but Hobart had just played an OT game against SLU the night before.   Both times I saw them against SLU I was very impressed with their defense, but those defensive efforts were not replicated the rest of the season.  They were a really good 3PT shooting team, but just too inconsistent on the defensive end (aside from when they played SLU).   They have a lot of seniors and Clarkson has a pretty big graduate school system so it's possible for them to return.   The Bear teaches over there so maybe he has some insight into their situation.

Union also underachieved given their returning players.  They started four 5th year players, all who could shoot lights out on any given night.  They managed to beat RPI which showed they had the experience to beat anyone, but that ended up being an outlier.  Concannon clearly was not at 100% with his knee injury from last year, and didn't finish the season.  I didn't even see him on the bench against SLU the last game of the regular season.  Lovisolo had high pedigree but never really seemed to put it all together until the very end.  If he had another year left he could do some serious damage but him, Concannon, Manley and Noone are all out of eligibility.  They do have this year's rookie of the year who is a strong inside presence and also bring back Baptiste, but that's a lot of experience to lose.

Bard is definitely a program on the upswing.  Really solid 3PT shooting team and a decent rebounding team given their size mismatches under the rim.  They bring back a lot of players next year, including who I felt should have been the rookie of the year in Calvin Bader-Clark.  He's a true wing player with great size.   

[UfanBill]

In a follow-up to a post I made last week...Rochester, who was thought by some (me) as questionable as to their credentials to be a Pool C pick, blew a 16 point halftime lead and lost to Nichols 74-71 to be quickly eliminated. 2 of the other 4 UAA in the field also lost their openers. The two first round winners lost in the second round. Something we're familiar with here...KARMA?

[stlawus]

Just wait until next year when a 14-11 Rochester hosts a first round pod

[Pat Coleman]

In a follow-up to a post I made last week...Rochester, who was thought by some (me) as questionable as to their credentials to be a Pool C pick, blew a 16 point halftime lead and lost to Nichols 74-71 to be quickly eliminated. 2 of the other 4 UAA in the field also lost their openers. The two first round winners lost in the second round. Something we're familiar with here...KARMA?

I mean, all of the NESCAC teams lost in the first weekend as well, so I guess indict the entire NESCAC as well?

It was relatively well understood in a lot of D-III circles that the NESCAC and the UAA were both deep but that neither one necessarily had a Final Four team.

[UfanBill]

In a follow-up to a post I made last week...Rochester, who was thought by some (me) as questionable as to their credentials to be a Pool C pick, blew a 16 point halftime lead and lost to Nichols 74-71 to be quickly eliminated. 2 of the other 4 UAA in the field also lost their openers. The two first round winners lost in the second round. Something we're familiar with here...KARMA?

I mean, all of the NESCAC teams lost in the first weekend as well, so I guess indict the entire NESCAC as well?

It was relatively well understood in a lot of D-III circles that the NESCAC and the UAA were both deep but that neither one necessarily had a Final Four team.

To answer your question...I believe the system that rewards 4 or 5 teams in a conference while excluding regular season champs that unfortunately get upset in their tourney is what should be under scrutiny.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Also,  Rochester was up 20 on Nichols in the second half. Hard to argue they were out of place in the tournament. There have definitely been years where big conference teams who got in late didn't look so good that would illustrate the point better.

[deiscanton]

Also,  Rochester was up 20 on Nichols in the second half. Hard to argue they were out of place in the tournament. There have definitely been years where big conference teams who got in late didn't look so good that would illustrate the point better.

Correction-- Rochester was up 20 on Nichols with 5:10 left in the first half. (UR up 35-15).  UR was up by 16 at halftime (46-30), but Nichols cut the 16 point deficit to single digits with 10 minutes to go in regulation and tied the score at 63-63 with 5:34 left in regulation.

Based on Matt Snyder's net efficiency ratings system coming into the contest, the game between Rochester and Nichols was expected to be close.  Not a surprise that Nichols won the game, but maybe a surprise that Nichols was down by 20 points in the first half to begin with.

Also, on the D3Hoops Datacast Episode 28 mentioning chances of UAA teams to make it to the "Final Four" this year only gave Rochester a 4% chance to make it to Fort Wayne to start with.  NYU had a 19% chance to make it to Fort Wayne at the beginning of the tournament but was upset by Lancaster Bible in the first round. 

Credit the parity of the entire field of teams that made it in to the NCAA tournament this year as the reason why all of the NESCAC and the UAA teams in the field were eliminated by the end of the second round this year-- for the first time since NESCAC teams were first allowed to compete in the NCAAs back in the 1993-94 season.

Rochester, by performance over the entirety of the season, and not just performance in February, had earned the right to at least lose in the postseason on the court by a team outside the UAA this year rather than having a board decide artificially that UR did not belong in the field based on criteria that the DIII Championships Committee did not give the Men's Basketball Committee permission to consider.  (Performance over last 10 games-- you cannot consider this exclusively for basketball without doing this for other team sports as well.-- plus applying this criteria diminishes the importance of winning in the first half non-conference games in November and December in the basketball season by giving greater weight to conference games in January and February.)

Applying the criteria as given can have the side-effect of excluding other tournament-caliber teams who could win a game or two in the NCAAs if picked, but that is spelled out in the NCAA DIII Basketball-Prechampionship Manuals going into the process.

In addition, all 3 teams who knocked out Pool C teams with a winning pct under .667 going into the NCAAs (Hope in 2016-17 (def. UW-Oshkosh), St. Thomas (MN) in 2018-19 (def. UW-La Crosse), and Nichols (def. Rochester) this season) made it to the Sweet 16.  However, if Nichols defeats Stockton on Friday, the Bison will be the first of those 3 teams to make it to the Elite Eight, as the other two teams (the Dutchmen and the Tommies) lost in the round of 16 in previous tournaments.

[thebear]

Twas a long time ago, but in 1982, defending National Champion Potsdam, was somehow selected for the field with a 16-9 regular season record, won 3 games on the road to get to the Final Four, and won the semi-final vs. Brooklyn at Calvin before running into future NFL player Pete Metzelaars & Wabash in the championship game. 

The regional games were decided by one and two points, and the national semi by one point.

Just says, you never know who can get hot and make a run. 

The most losses by a d3 champion is 6 by Wash U in the 2008 tournament.

[stlawus]

A well deserved Region 3 POY honor for Jackson Meshanic.

[stlawus]

Is Tobin Anderson the first former Liberty League/UCAA/ICAC coach to win a division I tournament game since Paul Evans?  Trying to think back to who coached in the UCAA days and can't come up with anyone who made the jump and/or won a tourney game.

[thebear]

Is Tobin Anderson the first former Liberty League/UCAA/ICAC coach to win a division I tournament game since Paul Evans?  Trying to think back to who coached in the UCAA days and can't come up with anyone who made the jump and/or won a tourney game.

Paulsen made the jump, made the tournament at Bucknell twice, but don't see that he ever won a game.

Mike Deane was a former D3 coach who has won tournament games.

[Caz Bombers]

How bout the former Clarkson and Hamilton guy Tobin Anderson, incredible!!