MBB: Liberty League

[stlawus]

All good points, I didn't mean to imply any or all of them were all league favorite locks, just the top returners for centers in the league.

[Jersey42]

RPI posted their roster the other day.  It includes 19 players. Here are few armchair observations.

• Four of five starters return.  The one that does not return is LL POY Jonny Angbazo.
• As mentioned previously by stlawus, Avery Eugster returns as a grad student.  His brother Ben is the only player with meaningful minutes besides Angbazo that does not return.  Ben has moved on to Carnegie Melon for grad school.
• There are only two other seniors/grad students on the roster.  Chuck Clemons sat out last year with an injury although he played a lot as a junior. The other sat out his sophomore year with an injury and saw little time last year.
• There are seven freshmen and five sophomores on the roster. Two of the sophs started last year and two more played a lot.  It is very tough to predict freshman production based on high school.  A few had stellar HS careers at small schools.  The one that intrigues me the most is a 5-10 PG from Fordham Prep in the Bronx. He led his team to first place in the CHSAA "A" league and was named the league MVP.

[d3d3d3]

Preseason coaches' poll:
1. Hobart
2. St. Lawrence
3. RPI
4. Union
5. RIT
6t. Bard
6t. Ithaca
8. Vassar
9. Clarkson
10. Skidmore

I'm certain Bard has never been picked this high, or that Skidmore has been picked this low.

[stlawus]

Big opening win for SLU tonight against Oswego.  No Trey Syroka tonight who along with Chris Downs Jr were in sweats, and Adam Dudzinski started the game off with his shooting wrist taped and was clearly affected.  Macaulay twins took shots to the thighs at the start of the 2nd half as well and missed extended minutes.  Team dug deep and grinded out one of the best defensive efforts in this current SLU basketball era.   Adam Dudzinski couldn't get much going offensively as mentioned but had a game saving shot contest at the buzzer at the expense of his ankle which he rolled on the landing.  Looked like he was in a good amount of pain but ended up popping up and walking off without any help.  At the very least that will be sore tomorrow.  Division 1 lacrosse transfer Dan Anderson thrown right into the gauntlet starting at point guard, and while it took him the first half to find his bearings he gave the Saints a big boost on offense in his first competitive basketball game in several years. 


I rambled way too much there, but just happy to see this group finally beat Oswego.   Really good win for Ithaca tonight against rival Cortland, as well as Hobart taking down their local rival Fisher. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Wow. Nice night for the league. I don't think anyone knows how good or bad Oswego St will be this year, obviously a shell of previous years, but probably still the class of the SUNYAC.

[stlawus]

What was a promising start to SLU's season snaps back in a horrible loss at home to Clarkson. It doesn't matter how good or bad Clarkson is they play SLU every time like it's the national championship game, so the sooner SLU figures that out they'll keep losing dog fights to their crosstown rival. Injuries are no excuse either.

[Jersey42]

RPI beat Hobart 72-55 in the Liberty League opener for both teams.  RPI lead most of the way in a close first half.  They continued to extend the lead throughout the second half to as much as 22 points.  The teams were much more evenly matched than the final score might indicate.  Free throws and three pointers were the big difference. If you take away Monty Nedd's 6-9, the rest of the Hobart team shot 2-16 from the free throw line.  RPI was 23-28 after shooting only 62% in their first three games.

RPI shot 9-14 from beyond the three point line after shooting 29% if their first three games. Hobart was 7-20 from three point range, but two of those came in the last 40 seconds. If the free throw and three point stats were closer to each team's norm, the game would have been much closer.

RPI opens their season at 4-0.  Avery Eugster led the Engineers with 16 points. RPI has had a different scoring leader in each game.  They have not given up more than 55 points in any of those games.  I can't see RPI blowing out many teams, but with their defense they should be in most every game this season. If they can get some clutch shooting, they will have the opportunity to win a lot of those games.

[stlawus]

Good start for RPI so far.  Not shocked they beat Hobart but I am a little surprised about the scoreline.  Hobart on the receiving end of that all too familiar feeling of now getting every team's best game as a result of being league champs.  They'll have a solid season but they lost their 2 best defenders from last year's team.  Isaiah Washington guarded every team's best player, so what they might get in offense with his replacement could be offset by the loss of his defense.

SLU gets a good bounceback win against Plattsburgh.  Their defense remains elite even without reigning league DPOY Trey Syroka who is still sidelined.  Scoreline is a bit flattering for the Cardinals as SLU dribbled out the last 90 seconds but Plattsburgh heaved up a 3 and a couple other baskets while SLU ran it out. Platts played really tough for 30 minutes or so before running out of gas.  SLU is not shooting well from the perimeter so far as teams have tape from last year but if they keep going to Dudzinski in iso like they did tonight that should unlock a bit more on offense.  He's a matchup nightmare being 6'8" with range and ball handling and never having the opponent's center guarding him.

[stlawus]

Nascent times in this Liberty League season but so far looking like another year of the league having 2 elite defensive teams in RPI and SLU. It's no surprise that D3 Datacast has SLU and RPI with the #1 and #2 defenses in the nation, respectively.  Massey and the Datacast guys are both useful tools to compare teams, but the Datacast guys definitely have some eerily good formulas.  Just looking at the predictions for today's game, they absolutely nailed SLU's point share today.  Spread was off but that's just normal statistical variance/probability especially early in the season.  Still really impressive to nail that and also come extremely close in the actual point shares and spreads in most of the other games.  The Snyders have figured something out with their system, kudos!

RPI squeaked one out against Cobleskill but a win is a win and they remain unbeaten.  SLU defense allows fewer than 50 points for the 2nd time already this season on the road in Geneseo.  The Saints offense is still trying to get a footing but Trey Syroka has finally returned.  Downs is easing him in off the bench to start, and given Dan Anderson's performance in his absence so far the SLU guard depth will be a strength going forward.  SLU is moving the ball well, just not getting much luck at the rim.  10 days off to get more healthy should do them a lot good before the 3 game slate the first week of December.

After playing the game of their lives against SLU last week Clarkson gives up 83 points in a home loss, albeit against a good and experienced SUNY Poly squad.  Bard was up a decent amount against New Paltz but ran out of gas, that would have been a very solid win for them and the league.

[stlawus]

Hobart almost blew it by fouling a 3 point shooter with 20 seconds left up 3 but they get a bounce on the first free throw attempt and hold on to beat Rochester. Gives the league it's 2nd marquee win, with SLU beating Oswego and now Hobart beating UR.  RPI hasn't beat a truly upper echelon team yet but they are still 5-0 with a few of them being decent neutral/road wins which are hard to come by no matter the opponent. It seems so far SLU/RPI/Hobart are the upper tier teams of the league so far which is expected. 

[stlawus]

Very big game this Friday between SLU and RPI.  Not only are there standings implications but Pool C as well.  Always a great game between the two squads. Teams are similar in that they are elite defensively but with different styles, as RPI plays pack line and SLU plays 2-3 zone. Both teams can struggle in half court offense, so even though it sounds obvious it'll come down to whoever can get the shots to fall.  SLU is just not getting any rim luck so far, as they are getting mostly open looks but can't get anything to go down.  Would think that reverts at some point but can't count on it to automatically happen.  Their offensive strength is in transition, so look for the Saints to try to run the floor against the Engineers. 

RPI is benefiting from the fact that they have an actual point guard now with Clemons who missed all last year.  SLU is now fully healthy as well, with Chris Downs Jr back into the fold and Trey Syroka ramping back up.  Downs looks significantly improved, he could have easily had 15 last night.  Syroka also dished 6 assists off the bench in last night's game.  Once he's in full game shape this SLU team is going to have the most depth that I can ever remember.   Denver lax transfer Dan Anderson has filled in superbly in the point guard role so far in Syroka's absence.  Quite the luxury to have a 5th year reigning league DPOY coming off the bench right now.

[Jersey42]

Not only are there standings implications but Pool C as well.

This year, pool C bids are all about a team's NPI.  NPI is a defined formula and their is no human intervention.  My understanding is strength of schedule, determined by opponents NPI, will have a huge impact on a team's NPI.  I doubt the non conference schedule of any of the LL teams, with the possible exception of Ithaca, will help improve the team's NPI.  Beating a team with a good NPI is the best way to improve your NPI.  Beating teams with a low NPI will probably not help.  Losing to a team with a high NPI is sometimes better than beating a bad team.  

Sure, St. Lawrence's victory over Oswego will be a boost, but the rest of their NC schedule will not help. Ithaca's NC schedule is definitely the best in the LL, and future wins against Hamilton and Carnegie Mellon would potentially put them in a good pool C position.  It does not look like any of RPI's opponents will help their NPI. Hobart's schedule is a little better than RPI's, but Rochester needs to win games against good UAA opponents to help Hobart.

The games need to be played and things will change, but I think a second LL team in the NCAA tournament will be a longshot.  If there is a second team, Ithaca is the probably the only team that can control their own destiny.  They need to have a good LL season with some wins over RPI/Hobart/St. Lawrence, win their remaining NC games, and lose the LL tournament.

Matt Snyder (d3datacast) posts the current NPI's on a daily basis.  They don't mean a whole lot now.  But when we get into February, the numbers should be a lot closer to what we can expect at year end.

[stlawus]

Not only are there standings implications but Pool C as well.

This year, pool C bids are all about a team's NPI.  NPI is a defined formula and their is no human intervention.  My understanding is strength of schedule, determined by opponents NPI, will have a huge impact on a team's NPI.  I doubt the non conference schedule of any of the LL teams, with the possible exception of Ithaca, will help improve the team's NPI.  Beating a team with a good NPI is the best way to improve your NPI.  Beating teams with a low NPI will probably not help.  Losing to a team with a high NPI is sometimes better than beating a bad team. 

Sure, St. Lawrence's victory over Oswego will be a boost, but the rest of their NC schedule will not help. Ithaca's NC schedule is definitely the best in the LL, and future wins against Hamilton and Carnegie Mellon would potentially put them in a good pool C position.  It does not look like any of RPI's opponents will help their NPI. Hobart's schedule is a little better than RPI's, but Rochester needs to win games against good UAA opponents to help Hobart.

The games need to be played and things will change, but I think a second LL team in the NCAA tournament will be a longshot.  If there is a second team, Ithaca is the probably the only team that can control their own destiny.  They need to have a good LL season with some wins over RPI/Hobart/St. Lawrence, win their remaining NC games, and lose the LL tournament.

Matt Snyder (d3datacast) posts the current NPI's on a daily basis.  They don't mean a whole lot now.  But when we get into February, the numbers should be a lot closer to what we can expect at year end.

If the teams keep winning and drop very few remaining games I suspect it will be closer than you think. The NPI dials are a bit different for basketball and you won't get credit for simply playing a tough schedule. You have to actually win the games. Ithaca's SOS is likely not going to be significantly better than the other teams' when it's all said and done.  Both SLU and RPI have played teams whose records aren't currently gaudy but will significantly improve as the season progresses which is partly why their projected SOS is not significantly different than Ithaca's.  The quality win bonus is also going to play a big role which is why I say tomorrow's game is big since the winner is going to get the QWB once NPI is calculated.

[d3hoopstories]

I strongly agree with what Jersey said. Unless Ithaca beats both Hamilton and CMU and survives the league slate with just 1-2 losses, this is a one-bid league. The others will not have enough high quality wins to get in as a Pool C team.

[stlawus]

Ugly, ugly defensige game between SLU and RPI in which RPI prevails. The defenses were as advertised, and the difference in this one was turnovers. SLU doubled RPI on TOs with several at the worst times. Credit to the Engineers for making 4 threes in a row halfway through the 2nd half wherein they never relinquished the lead afterward. They frustrated Dudzinski who was scoreless and that led to him not boxing out on a missed 1-and-1 at the end where the Saints could have made it one possession. A forced turnover on a press by SLU in the final minute was promptly followed up with a turnover on the in bounds.  RPI simply made the shots while SLU wasted a lot of possessions. Only blemish on this one was an RPI parent jawing at SLU's student section. That was a bit yikes