MBB: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[WoostAr]

Looks like the Texas schools are no longer in the West either??  UT Dallas is regionally ranked in the south.

[stag44]

SCIAC is a wild race to the finish:

Team	Conference Record
CLU	10-2
Chapman	9-3
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	8-3
Whittier	7-5
Pomona-Pitzer	6-6
Occidental	5-7
La Verne	4-8
Cal Tech	2-9
Redlands	2-10

Let's break down the schedule to go for each of the teams:

CLU - vs Whittier, @ CMS, @ Chapman, @ Oxy

CLU has a brutal finish to their schedule, playing @CMS and @Chapman along with hosting a Jekyll and Hyde Whittier team and finishing @ Oxy. Given how Rider usually plays 7-8 guys this could be a tough stretch for the team. Whittier is never an easy place to play at especially with the Poets playing re-energized and focused after their Cal Tech no show. The back to back of @CMS and @Chapman may very well determine the top 3 seeds in the conference tournament. CLU does control their own destiny and if they go 4-0 they will be the 1 seed and outright conference champs. I don't see this happening though as this 4 game stretch is the toughest remaining schedule out there.

Smith and Powdrill have been the best 2-man combo in the conference averaging 37ppg, but don't count out their role players as Wade, Apele, Mcguire and Lynott all play key roles for the Kingsmen. In the end they go as Smith and Powdrill go and those two have proven VERY difficult to slow let alone stop. Smith is lightning quick with a reliable jump shot and can really take it to the rim and make good decisions off ball screens. If it wasn't for Gaffaney he would be my POY.

I think that CLU ends up going 3-1 over the their last 4 and end up at 13-3 in conference.

Chapman - @ Redlands, vs CLU, vs ULV, vs Cal Tech

Chapman has a pretty easy road to the conference tourney. The only playoff team they are facing up against is CLU at home. Redlands has struggled mightily this year especially with high pace teams though Currier Gym is always tough on a Saturday. ULV, though feisty, is still lacking a go to scorer and has struggled to win close games in conference and on the road. Cal Tech, though the darlings of the last week should be no issue for Chapman at home.

Zaversnick has slowed down a bit as conference has worn on and teams can scout Chapman, but that hasn't stopped the general production from the Panthers. Hamasaki has played well, but give all the credit to the Young twins and more so Garrett James. Those 3 have really stepped up as teams key in on the star guards and have taken advantage of their opportunities. The Panthers are always well coached and have found a way of winning a lot of close games this year.

The last 5 games have been rough for the Panthers as the are 2-3 with one of their wins coming @ CMS in OT (a game I think CMS fumbled away). I'm guessing it is a combination of teams being better prepared and fatigue that is leading to this.

I think that Chapman finishes strong as they realize how important home court is in the SCIAC playoffs and that they could still have an opportunity for an at-large with a 22-3 regular season record. They go 3-1 and finish at 12-4

CMS - vs Cal Tech, @ Oxy, vs Pomona, vs CLU, @ ULV

CMS has 5 games left as the 9 team conference scheduling creates some 3 game weeks for teams. They start the closing stretch against a rested and confident Cal Tech team on one-days rest. This will really rest the Stags as it's easy to let your guard down against Cal Tech. I know Scali will have the Stags ready to play tomorrow but they will have to execute and defend at a high level to win tomorrow. I still can't figure out which Oxy team will come to play, but I do know that the Stags will be ready to face the dribble drive and frenetic pace Newhall has his guys playing. I am worried about fatigue in this game as it will be the 3rd game in 5 nights and Oxy will be pressing for 40 minutes. The last game of their 4 games in 7 nights is vs Pomona which should be another classic. Pomona will be playing for their playoff life and CMS will be looking to stay in the hunt for another regular season championship potentially making it 6 out of the last 7. I'm expecting a slugfest, low scoring, hotly contested matchup. To close out the Stags host CLU in what could be a de facto regular season championship game which I again expect to be a physical battle.

There have been 3 pleasant surprises for me this year for the Stags: (1) the development of the 5 men. Coach Fortson has done a marvelous job getting Lane and Lund to be a high powered post-up tag team. They are averaging 13 and 10 in conference with Lane at really picking up his rebounding game. (2) The 3 Jacks - Earley, Grodahl and Ely. Earley is the glue of the team and takes pressure off Gaffaney in bringing the ball up and keeping continuity in the offense. Grodahl has round a second wind in conference and is playing at an all-conference caliber again, specifically in his toughness and rebounding. It looks like his shot is starting to feel good again which is a great sign for the Stags. Ely has shown he is college-ready as a frosh. He's been put into non-natural positions and still shown an ability to make big plays and defend at the college level now. The offense fits him and I expect him to be a regular for the Stags over the next 3 years. (3) Defense. Scali always has a very strong defensive team, but the length and athleticism of this team really takes them to the next level. They are a top 3 team in the nation and really can suffocate teams through a combination of fundamentals in practice, scouting, and team buy in to the philosophy coupled with the effort to execute on the demanding style the Stags play.

I expect the Stags to go 5-0 but it won't be easy and will require extreme focus and a full team effort.

Whittier - @ CLU, vs Oxy, vs Redlands, @ Pomona

Whittier has an interesting close to the year and I have no clue how they are going to finish. Within a span of a week they lost to Cal Tech by and beat Chapman by double digits. As usual they are the most talented and athletic team in the SCIAC but you never know which team is going to show up. Their remaining schedule will be challenging but I have a feeling the season finale @ Pomona will decide the 4 seed in the tournament. I think they will play CLU tight but lose a close one and then clean up at home against Oxy and Redlands. That will set up a play in game for the conference tourney agains Pomona which should be incredible.

Whittier thus far has shown flashes of brilliance with strong guard play from Desmusis, Jennings and Torres. They continue to demonstrate when the game is free flowing and up and down they are tough to beat. Jennings is phenomenal in space and getting to the rim, particularly with his left hand. Desmusis is a big time scorer who can go for 20 any night. I haven't been able to watch too many of their games (them and Oxy charge for their home game webcasts!) but from what I have seen they are dangerous when they are clicking but they have had too many lapses thus far.

I expect Whittier to go 2-2 losing a heart breaker to Pomona in the last game of the year to be bumped out.

Pomona - vs Cal Tech, @ CMS, @ Redlands, vs Whittier

This has been a tale of two seasons for Pomona; with Cohen and without Cohen. You could make a case that he should be the SCIAC POY because with him they are 6-1 in conference while without him they were 0-5. He's averaging 18ppg and playing over 35 minutes. He must have been pretty hurt because while Kats is from the Popovich school I don't think that he would keep players sidelined for rest Pomona is the hottest team in conference right now and I'm not sure anyone wants to play them, especially in a tournament setting. They seem to be peaking at the right time, but they are still on the outside looking in. If they do go 4-0 down the stretch they will make the playoff so they do control their fate, particularly with their last game. The key to the whole close though is the CMS game. The last one was an instant classic with McAndrews proving his clutchness yet again but with CMS playing for a 1 seed and with the opportunity to put a damper on Pomona's season I think that the Stags will be ready to go and win a close one. All won't be lost though because if Whitter slips up Pomona will still have a chance in the last game to sneak in due to tie breaker rules.

Pomona is led by the trio of McAndrews, Cohen and Brandon. Farone Collins has provided some bulk but after his injury he's been a bit less of a force. Cohen and McAndrews have been All Conference caliber all 4 of their years and Brandon has come on strong in his senior campaign, gaining confidence when Cohen was out, specifically in the upset win over Chapman where he had 22 / 9 / 5 and the game-winning tip-in. Katz is arguably the best coach in the conference (Scali and Kats are in a league of their own) and will have his players prepared for their closing stretch.

Pomona will go 3-1 and sneak into the playoff as a 4 seed.

Oxy - vs CMS, @ Whittier, @ Cal Tech, vs CLU

Oxy has sqaundered a few chances this year - losing @ Redlands and vs La Verne. That is the nature of this squad though as they are young and playing at a frenetic pace. The dribble drive offense, while compelling can be unforgiving if shots are not driving. Their pressing defense intended to push tempo also creates some issues against disciplined teams (-30 vs Chapman and CMS, giving up 90+ ppt). All that said they are still hanging on by a thread to playoff hopes. They will have to run the table and get some help and given their schedule I just don't see that happening. They can play spoiler for CMS, Whittier or CLU if they are able to spring an upset.

The team is led by Rice, Levy and Johnson who are all at 14ppg+. They are dynamic and with Johnson they have a very strong 4 which used to be the hallmark of Newhalls high-post teams (Phillips, Betty, McCoy). They have a bright future ahead and with Mikey Wells as an assistant (son of David Wells from CMS) they are also in good hands.

Oxy stumbles at goes 1-3 down the stretch.

La Verne - vs Redlands, @ Cal Tech, @ Chapman, vs CMS
Another team that has potential but still is looking to define its identity. La Verne has 14 players that have played in at least 10 games and 10 players who average over 10 minutes. It feels like the minutes are not consistent outside of a few players and Reed might be trying to over coach the team. The one thing I will say though is that they genuinely look like they are a team. They are all cheering each other one and that is not an easy thing to do with 24 players on the roster. Reed has a good thing going but it seems like they are almost trying too hard to be competitive. They seemingly change their game plan every night to out match their opponent instead of trying to impose their will on teams. With a roster this deep and athletic they should press at 94 feet with a run and jump and try to create an up tempo game.

Hakim Arnold has been their go to player in conference with a variety of other guys stepping up in different games. It's very difficult to get a read on the team as they change so frequently.

I think that they go 2-2 down the stretch.

Cal Tech - @ CMS, @ Pomona, vs ULV, vs Oxy, @ Chapman

The cindery story of the last week in Division 3. 2 game winning streak including and emphatic 92-77 win vs Whittier. The pieces are coming together for Eslinger. The rest of the season should be interesting as they have 3 tough road games and two opportunities to win at home vs La Verne and Oxy. I think that they end up coming up short but there will be some great games as they close.

They have a great front court with Al Reyes, Emezie and Houge and have found some dead eye shooters that complement them well. They are always running good offense and have been really playing well all conference.

I expect the team to continue to develop and winning 2 games in conference this year was a step in the right direction.

Redlands - @ ULV, vs Chapman, vs Pomona, @ Whittier

Without question the biggest bust in conference this year. I have them slated to finish at 2-14 even with the best 4 man in the conference. They have had their share of heartbreak with 5 of their conference losses coming by less than 4 points. I thought that Redlands would be contending for that 4 spot this year with their front court talent but it seems for not. They have a pretty tough finish to the schedule with their only winnable game (in my opinion) @ ULV. They will be competitive in their other 3 but I just don't see them winning.


So with that my projected final standing are:

Team	Conference Record
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	13-3
CLU	13-3
Chapman	12-4
Pomona-Pitzer	9-7
Whittier	9-7
Occidental	6-10
La Verne	6-10
Cal Tech	2-14
Redlands	2-14

SCIAC tourney would be Pomona @ CMS, Chapman @ CLU.

Let the last 2 weeks begin!

[dahlby]

stagg44...plus K to you for a good review/preview!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Chapman at #3 a bit of a surprise to me with only 15 games that count...probably won't stay in that spot after last night's game factors in.

The WIAC moved to the Central??...I must have missed that...that's huge for the West.

Chapman playing five games out of Division III hurts them. If they are at the table with say 17 wins versus a team with 21... it is going to stand out. Need to play more Division III games even if it means heading to events like the D3hoops.com Classic in Las Vegas.

And yes, the WIAC moved to the Central. All regions are now alike as the Central Region on the women's side has had the WIAC for a number of years. Now the regions in both sports are identical (even by name).

Looks like the Texas schools are no longer in the West either??  UT Dallas is regionally ranked in the south.

Texas schools have never been in the West - at least in recent menory - always part of the South Region.

[WoostAr]

Looks like the Texas schools are no longer in the West either??  UT Dallas is regionally ranked in the south.

Texas schools have never been in the West - at least in recent menory - always part of the South Region.

Well how about that...guessed I spaced on that for the last however many years.

Chapman at #3 a bit of a surprise to me with only 15 games that count...probably won't stay in that spot after last night's game factors in.

The WIAC moved to the Central??...I must have missed that...that's huge for the West.

Chapman playing five games out of Division III hurts them. If they are at the table with say 17 wins versus a team with 21... it is going to stand out. Need to play more Division III games even if it means heading to events like the D3hoops.com Classic in Las Vegas.

...this statement is true of the entire SCIAC save Caltech and La Verne -- must schedule better.

[Pat Coleman]

Chapman at #3 a bit of a surprise to me with only 15 games that count...probably won't stay in that spot after last night's game factors in.

The WIAC moved to the Central??...I must have missed that...that's huge for the West.

Chapman playing five games out of Division III hurts them. If they are at the table with say 17 wins versus a team with 21... it is going to stand out. Need to play more Division III games even if it means heading to events like the D3hoops.com Classic in Las Vegas.

And yes, the WIAC moved to the Central. All regions are now alike as the Central Region on the women's side has had the WIAC for a number of years. Now the regions in both sports are identical (even by name).

Looks like the Texas schools are no longer in the West either??  UT Dallas is regionally ranked in the south.

Texas schools have never been in the West - at least in recent menory - always part of the South Region.

Texas is in the West in baseball and other sports but has not been in basketball.

[WoostAr]

Caltech's win streak halted abruptly by Claremont last night -- Stags made it look easy -- Gaffney and Lund had a great two man game going.  Caltech looked timid -- their home court confidence certainly did not travel well. Pomona Pitzer on Saturday.

[Gosox]

Just fyi...it is "Caltech".....not "Cal Tech"...

[WoostAr]

Caltech made an easy win look hard tonight against la verne. They were up big through 35 minutes and has to hold on to win by 1.

Redlands over chapman!!  Did not see that coming.

[D O.C.]

stag44...yes, thanks for the work.

[stag44]

So we are into the last 5 games of the regular season and the entire standings have flipped around and it looks like Chapman controls their destiny.

Battle for the 1 seed:

With a Chapman win vs Caltech, they secure the 1 seed in the playoff regardless of other outcomes. If CMS and CLU win then all will finish 12-4 but Chapman takes the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against CLU and CMS. If CLU wins and CMS loses, they have the 2nd tiebreaker with CLU as they went 2-0 vs CMS.

If Chapman Loses, then CMS has the inside track. If Chapman loses, CMS wins and CLU wins then CMS has the tiebreaker 2-0. If CLU loses then CMS wins outright.

The only way for CLU to win the SCIAC is to beat Oxy and have Chapman lose to Caltech and CMS lose to La Verne.

In another way:

Chapman gets:
#1 Seed: Win vs Caltech; or Loss to Caltech AND CMS Loss to La Verne AND CLU Loss to Oxy
#2 Seed: Loss vs Caltech AND CMS Win or CLU Win
#3 Seed: Loss vs Caltech AND CMS AND CLU Win

CMS gets:
#1 Seed: Win at La Verne AND Chapman loss vs Caltech
#2 Seed: Win at La Verne AND Chapman win, Loss at La Verne AND CLU Loss
#3 Seed: Loss at La Verne AND CLU Win

CLU gets:
#1 Seed: Win vs Oxy AND Chapman AND CMS loss
#2 Seed: Win vs Oxy AND Chapman or CMS Loss
#3 Seed: Win vs Oxy AND Chapman and CMS Win, Loss to Oxy

The 4 seed is also up for grabs with 2 teams still fighting for it, with Whittier in the driver seat.

Whittier gets:
#4 Seed: Win vs Redlands or Win vs Pomona

Pomona gets:
#4 Seed: Win vs Whittier AND Whittier Loss to Redlands

This could get cleared up tonight with Whittier hosting Redlands. With a win, they can rest their players on Tuesday and prepare for Fridays game. With a loss they are playing on a back-to-back on the road in a play-in game for the 4 seed.

My predictions are:

#1 Chapman
#2 CMS
#3 CLU
#4 Whittier

If it plays out this way the Whittier - Chapman game will be VERY interesting given the Poets won at Chapman a couple weeks ago and seem to be playing great offense.

CMS - CLU will be a rematch of last years semifinal where CLU stunned CMS in the last game at Ducey with a Powdrill bank shot as the game clock was under 3 seconds. They had a week to prepare and completely overhauled their offense to play the Stags and as a result Smith had an incredible game as did Powdrill and they were able to catch the Stags sleep walking in the first half and held on of the win.

[stag44]

Whittier is in with a 67-57 win last night. I expect them to rest some of their starters tonight as they are locked into the 4 seed.

Chapman, CMS and CLU play tonight to settle 1-3. I expect all 3 to win and the standings to be Chapman, CMS then CLU for the tourney

[stag44]

Great to see Tyler Gaffaney get some National Press. He was put on the 2nd Team CoSIDA Capital One Academic All American Team!

http://www.cosida.com/documents/2015/2/24/2014_15_CapOne_D3_Basketball_Teams.pdf

[WoostAr]

Caltech players in the news as well:

Rob Anderson made the good works team: http://gocaltech.com/sports/mbkb/2014-15/releases/2015020986vkbh

KC Emezie voted Stud of the Week by Bennetrank as well:  http://www.bennettrank.com/collegebasketball/d3-mens-basketball-studs-of-the-week-14/

[stag44]

SCIAC Regular Season Done.

Congrats to Tri-Champions Chapman, CMS and CLU. By virtue of going 3-1 vs CMS and CLU, Chapman gets the 1 seed. CMS goes 2, and CLU goes 3. Whittier fills out the tourney with the 4 spot. Pomona, Oxy, La Verne, Redlands and Caltech round out the conference.

Whittier @ Chapman
CLU @ CMS

Friday Night - should be great games!