MBB: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[rook]

The formula if A > B and B > C then A > C doesn't always work in basketball.

The Indiana Pacers beat both the Celtics and Lakers this year.  Hard to make an arguement that they're better than either of them, but for some reason (they get up for big games, matchups, etc) they just get it done against them.

[Mr. Ypsi]

So if Carthage beats Augustana, then Augustana ain't that great, OR Cal Lutheran must be pretty darn good. You can't have it every which way.

Or Carthage is a different team now than it was on Nov. 24. In the real world, teams don't play exactly the same every single night. That's why filing a Top 25 ballot is so difficult and why the results don't always match every single head-to-head result, Bob.

Perhaps. There's no way anyone would have voted much for Villanova back in 1985. After all, they were a different team when they lost twice to Georgetown. Or were the Hoyas a different team when they lost to the Wildcats in the NCAA final? I get confused.

OxyBob

There exists such a thing as 'upsets' - perhaps you've heard of the concept?  While Villanova won the title, I don't think even Coach Rollie thought they were the 'best' team (I wouldn't have voted them top 10 even AFTER the tourney).

You're placing WAY to much importance on seeing a team once.

d-mac, there may not have even been a 'difference' (in general) between the teams.  No team is totally consistent from game to game (and I seriously doubt 'nova would ever shoot 89% from the field again [or whatever ridiculous % it was]).

[OxyBob]

From the current issue of Sports Illustrated, Alexander Wolff writes in his article "The Audacity of Hoops":

One of the flaws Obama owns up to is "a chronic restlessness." As he made his fitful way after high school, however, basketball abided. He spent two years at Occidental, a small liberal arts college near Pasadena. The first fall he worked out informally with 15 or so freshman hopefuls, many of whom remember his stylish game. He never was on the school team, but he played "noonball" with faculty, students and staff. As Eric Newhall, a professor who played in those games, has put it, "The greatest contribution Occidental has made to American democracy was to help Barack Obama decide that his future wasn't in basketball."

OxyBob

[Pat Coleman]

So if Carthage beats Augustana, then Augustana ain't that great, OR Cal Lutheran must be pretty darn good. You can't have it every which way.

Or Carthage is a different team now than it was on Nov. 24. In the real world, teams don't play exactly the same every single night. That's why filing a Top 25 ballot is so difficult and why the results don't always match every single head-to-head result, Bob.

Perhaps. There's no way anyone would have voted much for Villanova back in 1985. After all, they were a different team when they lost twice to Georgetown. Or were the Hoyas a different team when they lost to the Wildcats in the NCAA final? I get confused.

OxyBob

Exactly my point. You can't expect the same result every time -- the most recent data has to be given more consideration than games six weeks ago.

[gordonmann]

Not to preempt OxyBob's rejoinder, but I wanted to build off this conversation in a slightly different direction.

It's hard for me to evaluate the west coast Division III teams when casting my ballot, though I try to do the best I can with what I have.  Seeing the rare team who comes to the Philadelphia region helps.  So does the growth of streaming video.  I enjoyed watching CLU play BVU and learned a lot about both teams. 

To mitigate those struggles, I take a close look at the NWC and SCIAC each week to see if there's a team whose Top 25 vote total doesn't match its success and then add them to my ballot.  I've been one of the frequent voters for CMS this year and am one of them now.  As an aside, I haven't voted for Carthage, Millikin or North Central though I obviously have other CCIW teams on my ballot.

I had CMS on my ballot for a while and then dropped them, partly because I thought the performance of other teams, like Roanoke, to that point warranted it and partly because of the back-to-back loses to Concordia (Cal.) and Pt. Loma Nazarene. 

But maybe I made too much of those loses.  I try to review the non-D3 teams' schedules to see how they fare against all the Division III teams on their schedule and then review the Division III teams they play.  But I sometimes get stuck in a loop where I'm trying to evaluate unknown teams with games against other unknowns.

So to OxyBob (or anyone else), what's your take on the common Non-D3 west opponents, particularly in the NAIA?  Where would you slot Point Loma, Westmont and Concordia (Cal.)?  If they were in the SCIAC, would they be the top teams easily?  Competitive but not consistently stronger? Middle of the SCIAC pack?

For example, Titan Q has seen Olivet Nazarene enough to compare them to other CCIW teams.  When he said Olivet would be mid-level in the CCIW this year, I took that into account in assessing the IWU loss.  I would do the same with the observations of SCIAC observers I respect (like OxyBob).

As a general comment, I think our poll is imperfect but still very good, partly because of the geographic balance it achieves among the voters.  I may not know the SCIAC well but I do have a handle on the Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic teams.  Well, most of the time I do.   And others can say the same about their region.

Is the poll subjective?  Absolutely.  It's a poll, not standings.  But I think it's generally a good gauge of teams' relative strengths.  Sorry for the long post.

[OxyBob]

So if Carthage beats Augustana, then Augustana ain't that great, OR Cal Lutheran must be pretty darn good. You can't have it every which way.

Or Carthage is a different team now than it was on Nov. 24. In the real world, teams don't play exactly the same every single night. That's why filing a Top 25 ballot is so difficult and why the results don't always match every single head-to-head result, Bob.

Perhaps. There's no way anyone would have voted much for Villanova back in 1985. After all, they were a different team when they lost twice to Georgetown. Or were the Hoyas a different team when they lost to the Wildcats in the NCAA final? I get confused.

There exists such a thing as 'upsets' - perhaps you've heard of the concept?  While Villanova won the title, I don't think even Coach Rollie thought they were the 'best' team (I wouldn't have voted them top 10 even AFTER the tourney).

Wait, so now what are you saying? Are you saying that Carthage's win over Ausgutana was an upset? That certainly doesn't jive with "Carthage is a different team now than it was on Nov. 24." Or are you saying that Cal Lutheran's win over Carthage was an upset? That is more in line with standard CCIW doctrine that any nonconference loss can be excused, justified or explained away for reasons other than the other team was better.

Alas, last night Carthage lost to 5-loss Illinois Wesleyan. This would seem to disaffirm Carthage's greatness as established by its win over Augustana. However, applying the CCIW Theory of Perpetual Greatness, by which "greatness begets greater greatness," Carthage's loss to IWU doesn't diminish Carthage's greatness, but instead reaffirm's IWU's greatness, thereby confirming the greatness of Carthage, IWU, and, as we shall see, Augustana. Similarly, Millikin, whose greatness was affirmed by its win over Elmhurst, lost to North Central, which reaffirms North Central's greatness, while Millikin's greatness remains undiminished. Elmhurst had previously established its greatness, and despite 3 straight losses remains great. Augustana lost last night to Wheaton and has lost 2 straight in conference, but by virtue of its previous win over Elmhurst, which was already great, Augustana retains its greatness.

OxyBob

[Mr. Ypsi]

OB, I'm not saying any of the above (you, sarcastically, are).  I'm making the much simpler point: don't read TOO much into ANY one game.  (Plus, point two, don't draw such absolute conclusions from seeing any team once.)

[Pat Coleman]

For what it's worth, I suspect that a loss to another CCIW team (other than Wheaton) by IWU won't be treated the same as IWU's road losses to two No. 1 teams and losses to two scholarship teams.

Sometimes a voter can excuse that, and I wouldn't personally punish a team for either sets of those individually, but when the losses pile up I have to bail.

Not that I expect OB to care. This is for the rest of you who are interested in the actual poll mechanics.

[OxyBob]

So to OxyBob (or anyone else), what's your take on the common Non-D3 west opponents, particularly in the NAIA?  Where would you slot Point Loma, Westmont and Concordia (Cal.)?  If they were in the SCIAC, would they be the top teams easily?  Competitive but not consistently stronger? Middle of the SCIAC pack?

The SCIAC does play some of the teams from the Golden State Athletic Conference. This year the SCIAC was 0-9 against the GSAC:

Concordia 95, CMS 74
Point Loma 81, CMS 74
Concordia 93, Pomona 48
The Master's 88, Pomona 56
Biola 67, Pomona 56
Hope International 74, Pomona 68
Biola 67, Redlands 47
Biola 54, Whittier 46
Azusa Pacific 79, La Verne 70

With a dearth of local D-III competition other than Chapman, La Sierra, and UC Santa Cruz (which is 350 miles away), the GSAC gives SCIAC coaches a chance to fill in some open dates. I have been a fan of the GSAC for a long time. It's a highly competitive league, the teams are fun to watch, and every conference game is played like it's a death match. While it's a good challenge for SCIAC teams, success against the GSAC is rare. Whittier played Biola close this season, and Pomona lost to Hope International before the Sagehens got all of their players back. A SCIAC team may get an occasional win against Hope or Vanguard, but off the top of my head I can't remember the last time a SCIAC team beat Concordia, Biola, Point Loma, The Master's, Cal Baptist, or Azusa Pacific. The big dog in the GSAC is Fresno Pacific, which beat USC a couple of seasons ago. Oxy used to regularly play Westmont but hasn't in awhile, and one of the Westmont coaches always chides me about it when I see him. There was one wacky game several years ago between Cal Baptist and Redlands where CBU scored like 190 points in a game when UR was still the Traveling Freak Show and running the Grinnell System. Jordis Rocks would certainly remember that one and can add his two cents about SCIAC vs. GSAC.

I had CMS on my ballot for a while and then dropped them, partly because I thought the performance of other teams, like Roanoke, to that point warranted it and partly because of the back-to-back loses to Concordia (Cal.) and Pt. Loma Nazarene.

Concordia and Point Loma are both tough teams. I didn't see either game. CMS got behind early in the game at Concordia, but played them pretty even in the second half. Claremont probably feels that it should have won the game against Point Loma, which they only lost by 7.

As to your question, I think Concordia, Point Loma or Westmont would all win the SCIAC. They are overall too big, fast, and strong for us SCIACers.

OxyBob

[Pat Coleman]

I go back to 2000 when the only teams to beat Calvin were two GSAC schools. I never expect any D-III school to beat a top GSAC team.

[gordonmann]

OB, Pat:

Thank you very much.  That's very helpful.  I'll recalibrate my evaluation of CMS accordingly.

[Ralph Turner]

OB, Pat:

Thank you very much.  That's very helpful.  I'll recalibrate my evaluation of CMS accordingly.

Ditto.  Thanks for the discussion. 

The ASC teams frequently fill their squads with nearby NAIA-1 conferences, such as the Sonner AC, Red River AC and Gulf Coast AC.  I wonder about fair comparisons in those cases. 

[scandihoovian]

Just a few thoughts to add on the GSAC.  NCAA DII basketball has more or less disappeared in SoCal (most of the former DIIs have moved to DI over the last ten years or so).  As a result, I think many DII/low level DI type players wind up in the GSAC, a lot of them after a couple of years at the JC level.  As OB pointed out, their games are like death matches.  With the exception of Azusa, none of them play football, and they take their basketball very seriously.  After all, it's the only show in town, especially for the GSAC members that draw strict social/behavioral boundaries for their students.

I have not seen a lot of NAIA D1 ball outside of the GSAC, but my guess would be that they can hold their own with just about anybody at that level.

[gordonmann]

Thanks, Scandihoovian

[OxyBob]

Thank you very much.  That's very helpful.  I'll recalibrate my evaluation of CMS accordingly.

I thought of one other example to think about when considering D-III teams playing against the GSAC. That really great Wooster team of 2006-07 with Tom Port, Tim Vandervaart, and James Cooper came to California undefeated, beat up on Pomona by 20, and then lost to Cal Baptist 94-89. Wooster pretty much played CBU straight up. That year the Lancers finished 3rd in the GSAC and lost in the 2nd round of the NAIA-1 tournament to the eventual champ Oklahoma City.

Also, last season Fontbonne played Hope International and won 66-59, although it should be mentioned that for the season HIU was 1-26 and was sometimes not-so-fondly referred to as "No Hope."

OxyBob