MBB: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[WoostAr]

Back to the topic at hand:

The top half of the sciac plays the bottom half tomorrow....I'll go with the top half (Claremont, Whittier, Redlands and Pomona) as winners.

Fun tidbit: Caltech is now short 4 players that, at the beginning of the season, were anticipated to be in the rotation (Will Dooris, Marcus Lucas, Mason Friedman and Todd Cramer)...58 minutes averaged per game (out of 200 available)...throw in Elmquist graduating that's another 38 minutes per game to replace....not the best recipe for a successful season.

[OxyBob]

Caltech is now short 4 players that, at the beginning of the season, were anticipated to be in the rotation

This is the first time in the history of college basketball that a team has sustained graduation, attrition, transfers, and injuries. Keep those excuses coming!

OxyBob

[Mr. Ypsi]

Caltech is now short 4 players that, at the beginning of the season, were anticipated to be in the rotation

This is the first time in the history of college basketball that a team has sustained graduation, attrition, transfers, and injuries. Keep those excuses coming!

OxyBob

You are really gonna pick on Caltech?  Really?  Caltech?!

Well, I s'pose if you're the first SCIAC team to lose to them in umpteen years, you gotta do something!

[(509)Rat]

Yeah OB,

there are some very good reasons as to why Caltech has slipped to #310 in the Massey ratings (breakfromcoaching's favorite source) and will continue to drop as the season comes to a close.

You forgot the best one though... "hot gym" 

[stag44]

CMS @ ULV
I'm excited to see/hear about this game. The last time these 2 met, CMS was tested and taken to OT before they pulled away in the extra session. It was a great battle between Blees from CMS and Woodland from ULV. They both matched each other shot for shot in the 2nd half. In the end CMS got the win but not before a hotly contested game where ULV saw they could compete with the Stags

In the rematch @ the SuperTent, I expect to see a physical game where both teams come with a renewed focus. The SuperTent is always an interesting place to play for opponents, and I think as a visitor, its important to get layups and shots where you are not affected by the new background. ULV will give the Stags various looks, but I see them playing a sagging man and focusing alot of attention on stopping Blees. On a side note- I expect every team to show 2-3 guys at Blees everytime he puts the ball on the ground - HE HAS TO BE A PASSER in the 2nd half and trust his teammates. I think that if he almost takes a conductor approach in the first half and gets Gaffney, Pinson, Maciera and Grodahl good shots and in a rhythm, teams will also be less hesitant to double him. He should aiming to get Triple-Doubles every game. With his teammates, and rebounding ability, this is a possibility every game.

For the rest of the Stags, I would like to see Maciera, Gaffney and Pinson be a little more assertive on offense. They need to be looking for their shots and not afraid of going away from Blees on a drive or shot. The team has done a better job the last couple games of doing this and must continue to do so. Blees should really look to be a screener as well in the motion. Teams will be less likely to help of him and he can spring guys for layups or flairs to open jumpers.

The other HUGE key for the rest of the year goes back to the basics - THEY HAVE TO REBOUND. In SCIAC they are a paltry +1 reb margin, while there were among the national leaders in the non-conference. They have to bring the physicality and guard rebounding back. Some of that comes back to their defense. They are allowing teams to shoot a higher percentage and thus there are fewer rebounds out there to get. Also offensively they haven't been crashing the glass as well as they were before. Some of it may be the fatigue of the long season and heavy minutes, but it has to rachet back up for the second half of SCIAC.

For ULV, they were very close having 2 more wins. I think they will be looking to play spoiler the 2nd half and maybe squeak in as the 4seed in the SCIAC tourney. They need more contributions away from Woodland and Napolitano. Both of them, though have been having All-SCIAC seasons and very difficult to guard. The other key will be to see how they make adjustments the 2nd time around. I'll be curious to see how Woodland handles early double teams to get the ball away from him as well as possible box-1 or triangle-2 looks that teams may throw at them.

In any case I think the stags make the short ride to the SuperTent and win tonight with relative ease. They will be +10 on the boards and assist on over 40% of their FGs.

Stags win 71-57


Whittier @ CLU
This is a potential trap game for Whittier. They have been playing really through conference, only losing to a tough PP team and @ Redlands in a shootout. CLU has started off SCIAC very slow at 2-5, but have played teams tough lately, coughing up a 2nd half lead to CMS on the road. The tough part of their road schedule has more or less played out, as the 2nd half only has games @PP , Oxy and CIT. At home they went 2-1 in the 1st half, losing to PP in the 1st game of conference. Rider always has his teams improve as the season goes along. Over the last 3 years in SCIAC 2nd half play, CLU has hone 18-3, with one of the losses coming at the buzzer to Whittier in 08-09.. This just shows Rider has made great adjustments and his teams improve the 2nd time around. Whittier has been 11-10 during the 2nd half of that same stretch.

Whittier just had an easy breeze vs Caltech and is probably feeling confident going into the 2nd half of conference tied 2nd and giving CMS their only loss on the year. They have more offensive firepower than anyone in the league and can really test you athletically. The ride out to CLU will be long, and I have a gut feeling they won't be ready to play vs an improved CLU.

I think CLU will control tempo, limit turnovers, and make this game a halfcourt physical slugfest. Van Klaveren, Walton, Nettles, and Harris will knock down timely shots and hunker down on defense. I could see them playing zone for the entire game and a sagging man to make Whittier a shooting team while going hard denial on Menez.

In my upset special, I think CLU wins this game 71-67



OXY @ Redlands
This should be a great game in Currier. Last time they met @ Oxy, Redlands shot the lights out from 3 (10-17) and got great bench production (29pts, 6-9 from 3) from Call and Estrada. Oxy had a tough game from the field and had very little bench help. Oxy has improved since this game and is riding momentum from a big win vs Oxy. I'm not sure they can win this game though. Redlands has shown they are tough at home and its not a tough ride out from Downtown. I think we'll get a hotly contested game, but Redlands, the crowd and atmosphere will be too much to overcome. I like Kirk and Estrada to have big games and for them to suffocate McCoy.

Redlands to win 65-54


PP @ CalTech
Pomona bounces back from their upset loss to Oxy with an easy win. Caltech may keep this close for the 1st half, but without Kramer its looking like an 0-14 season for them.

Pomona wins 68-47

[greyskies]

Thanks Stag44 for tonight's analysis, always much appreciated

[cmsme]

I think this game with La Verne is very important for CMS. I hope that CMS can show what they have learned since the first time they met--when La Verne out rebounded and had more bench points. That is supposed to be CMS's MO. La Verne is an excellent team and I hope their luck changes (but not at Claremont's expense).
Every game seems to be a struggle.  I the SCIAC that good?
Anyway, very excited and am enjoying the posts--even the ones about CMS inflating the scores !

[stag44]

CMS 80 ULV 60
Stags jumped out to an 18-0 lead and didn't look back. Outside of FTs and a couple defensive lapses, very strong showing from the stags. Big games from Blees (25 pts), Maciera (15pts) and Gaffney (15pts)

Whittier 81 CLU 46
For the 1st half of the game my upset special was still brewing as they went into the break tied at 24. The 2nd half Whittier just poured it on as CLU couldn't score and had 12 TOs.

Redlands 77 Oxy 55
Didn't really track this game but looks like Redlands just took control early and methodically beat up on Oxy. Making 13 3s and shooting over 54% from 3 is impressive

PP 55 CalTech 48
Great effort from Caltech. They were actually up 6 at the half. PP went on an 11-0 run at the start of the half, and then another 18-5 run to put the game out of reach. Valiant effort from Caltech

[WoostAr]

eyewitness report from Caltech:

The first half of this game saw the best team defense Caltech has played in a while.  The two runs in the second half were killer...they had it within six with that ball in the last 4 minutes of the game but just couldn't get all the way back.

Sets up an interesting match-up Saturday against Oxy.  Alumni night for Caltech...gym will be packed with possibilities of a pep band -- pretty sure Oxy fans remember what happened the last time they came into that sort of environment.  If Oxy doesn't get out early, I'd expect some nerves to take hold.  If Caltech's going to get one, this will probably be it.

No surprises in the other games...the top half easily disposed of the bottom half of the league.

Some exciting matchups this weekend: the top 4 in the league play each other...should be a couple great games!!

Redlands at Pomona Pitzer:  Pomona Pitzer will be looking to rebound from a subpar performance at Caltech, Redlands looking to stay hot, winners of 5 in a row.  Winner will end up 2nd or tied for first in the sciac.  I like Redlands in this game.

Whittier goes to CMS:  CMS lost at Whittier in the last game for their only loss of the season...this will be a tight and physical matchup.  a win for CMS gives them some breathing room atop the SCIAC...a loss would create a 3-way tie at the top of the league.  Lots at stake here.  CMS slight favorite playing at home.  Fun fact: When Whittier beat CMS earlier this year, it was the first time they'd beat them since 2007.

Finally La Verne's playing at Cal Lu: just doesn't seem to be La Verne's year...they seem to come up just a tad bit short in each of their games.  I have Cal Lu as a slight favorite at home.

[OxyBob]

Redlands 77 Oxy 55
Didn't really track this game but looks like Redlands just took control early and methodically beat up on Oxy. Making 13 3s and shooting over 54% from 3 is impressive

That's a huge loss for Oxy. With a win the Tigers would have trailed UR by a game in the standings. Now they trail by 3 games with 6 to play and were swept by the Bulldogs. Barring a miracle comeback or epic collapse, Claremont, Whittier, Pomona, and Redlands will jockey for the 4 positions in the conference tournament.

Saturday's games:

La Verne (5-14, 2-6 SCIAC) @ Cal Lutheran (6-12, 2-6)
Redlands (11-8, 6-2) @ Pomona (11-7, 6-2)
Whittier (14-5, 6-2) @ Claremont (18-1, 7-1)
Oxy (7-11, 3-5) @ Caltech (5-14, 0-8)

OxyBob

[etule]

I thought Oxy would be better this year! That being said Redlands is a very good team! Oxy gets Cal Tech ! No doubt!
I also like La Verne, Whittier and Redlands.  I think Claremont is going down this week! Whittier is going to have to bring their A game!
Fun slate of games!

[diehardfan]

East coast bias! Arrrrghhhh! And by east coast I mean the midwest, since I live in California and everything east of Colorado is the east coast.

Except I don't anymore. Hi old friends from way over in DC. Good to see you still holding down the fort OxyBob.

[stag44]

Great set of games tomorrow!!!

Whittier @ CMS

Rematch of the double OT thriller where Whittier handed CMS their only defeat of the year. Both teams are coming off great games. CMS blitzed ULV early and coasted to a 20pt win. Whittier came out of the game slow @CLU, then just absolutely ran over the Kingsmen in the 2nd half outscoring them 57-22 to win going away.

It's going to be a really interesting game to see how both teams react and adjust to their last matchup. Historically, Scali has been GREAT with adjustments the 2nd time around, up there with Katz and Rider in his preparation the 2nd time through. Carter has improved as well, and with the talent he has it will be interesting to see how they perform in hostile Ducey.

From watching the Whittier CLU game, I was impressed with how well Whittier shot the ball, how they attacked the rim and glass, and how aggressive they were in the press. They do shoot fast and if a player is open off 1 pass they jack up the shot and are not afraid to play fast. They run top of the key screen roll and have Menez come off down screen for 3 in some of their initial quick hitter action. Off that they can get Easterman or Preer on the block or popping out for 3. They are aggressive and are at their best when they score or have dead ball so they can set up their press. From the press, they invite guards to dribble up the sideline into a trap or speed them up to make poor decisions. They key to breaking the press will be ball fakes, and either drawing the defense back with the dribble or pass. Draw 2 and then dish to create an advantage off the press. You have to attack this press to get layups and force them to call the dogs off.

From CMS side, they have to maintain their composure and get a full team effort. I was so impressed with them vs La Verne. Tyler Gaffney should be an all-conference guard. It will be a tough year for him to get a look with all the other talent on the Stags and in conference, but through conference as the 3rd or 4th option he has been getting 10 5 and 3 on a regular basis. Maciera has also picked up the slack the last couple games finding spots to score. Blees has also started to play more off the ball coming off rip screens and flex cuts making his scoring easier and less laborious.

The key to the game for them will be to limit turnovers and gang rebound on the defensive end while slowing the ball in transition for 40 minutes. They have to play 94 feet and more with their brains than with their bodies. Whittier will try to speed them up and get this into a track meet, but to be honest the Stags will fare better with a game in the 60s. I expect to see some tougher defense on the ball and more physicality defending screens and on the boards.

I think that Ducey will be rocking tomorrow night. Its a big game and our fans should fill up the stands!

In a fun atmosphere I think CMS shows its class over Whittier at home 76-68

Fun fact: When Whittier beat CMS earlier this year, it was the first time they'd beat them since 2007.

After the loss @ Whittier that year, CMS beat Whittier 64-38 at home in the rematch

Redlands @ P-P
In the other matchup of the top 4 teams, Redlands is playing arguably the best basketball in the SCIAC of late and PP is coming off an underwhelming performance vs Caltech.

PP is always a tough place to play, but I think Redlands is playing very well right now and has the right matchups to cause PP some problems. With that I think Redlands wins in my mini-upset of the weekend.

Redlands win 68-60

ULV @ CLU
Really no clue how to read this game. Both teams are coming off blowout losses. Both teams have been on the bad end of tough losses. Both teams are in a must must win situation to keep any hopes alive of a birth in the SCIAC playoff. I like CLU in this game at home. They looked good for a half vs Whittier and Van Klaveran is arguably the best player in SCIAC right now. Statistically he is leading the league in Pts and Rebs and top5 in mins played.

CLU wins 62-56

Oxy @ Caltech
In a VERY compelling matchup, Oxy returns to Caltech for the first time since their loss at the end of last season. I think Oxy comes out and blasts Tech. Almost every player who contributes for Oxy was a part of the team that lost last year and I think they will come out aggressive and ready to go. They should bury them early and pour it on late.

Oxy wins 76-45

[cmsme]

Stag44, I agree with your predictions except I think La Verne beats Cal Lu. La Verne seems like a really talented team with bad luck or some momentary lapses. When La Verne played CMS, the coach pulled his starters out for 11 minutes (I think because he was pissed). When he put them back in, CMS had an 18 point lead. That 18 point difference stayed pretty constant the rest of the game.
So either CMS players were mentally reluctant to run the score up against La Verne. Or (I think) La Verne is very comparable with CMS--they are just missing some minor ingredient.
Looking forward to the Whittier game!

And thank you to the CMS video people.

[dahlby]

I agree that ULV is a better team than the record shows. Yes, they do have lapses almost every game. Probably from the lack of playing together enough. If they could put it together for an entire game, they would be a team to recon with. CU played them 3 times (2 scheduled games, and one in the Redlands Tourney) and I was impressed each time.

Whitier has been my suprise team this year....they really can run a streak when needed. I am sad that they refused to play Chapman this year......sort of like an OXY the past few years.