MBB: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[WoostAr]

Caltech is obviously not the same team they were earlier in the season.  They peaked early and just don't seem to have enough chemistry right now. 

True and not true...they are literally not the same team personnel wise, so you are correct on that point.

As far as the current personnel "peaking"...they've lost 3 of their last 4 by less than ten to teams that blew them out earlier in the season...I don't know if that's a "peak", but it's definitely improvement.

While we're explaining things...La Verne is REALLY missing Wolpe this season.

Redlands is who really missed him.

Touche.

[(509)Rat]

Water can be solid. It can be liquid. It can also be just a bunch of hot air.

Well that makes sense. Especially in regards to the "hot gyms". That would definitely aid in the phase change...

[goldsoundz]

My breakdown of the SCIAC teams so far:

CMS is stacked and should be ranked ahead of Whitworth.  Teams have to bring their A games just to hang around against them.  They're actually playing noticeably worse now than they were at the start of the year, but it's hard to sustain that level of play for 25 games.  I expect them to win a few tournament games.

PP is tough to peg.  Not a lot of size, rely on the jumper, excellent guard play.  Some bad losses to Cal Lu and Oxy.  But they've had a lot of close losses to great teams (D1 Pepperdine, NAIA Biola, St. Thomas, CMS, D1 CSU Bakersfield) so they raise their level of play when it matters.  I think they have the best chance to knock off CMS, if they get hot.

Whittier is overrated.  Their only impressive win is against CMS in 2OT.  No impressive OOC wins.  They obviously match up well with CMS and can just run most average teams out of the gym, but come playoff time they'll be exposed.

Redlands looked like a suprise early in conference play, but they've come back to expected levels recently.  They have one very impressive win against Puget Sound where they shot lights out.  But that looks like a fluke more than anything.  Don't have a chance against CMS and they'll most likely lose to PP in the tournament.

Cal Lu and Oxy are teams with great front lines, but huge weaknesses elsewhere.  Cal Lu just has no guard play.  Oxy has Jack Hanley, but no point and very little depth.  They've played better with Montoya back, but it's too little, too late.

La Verne is a two man team with no impressive wins in conference or out.

Caltech's playing as well as you can expect, given their personnel.  Lack of size gets them killed on the boards late in games.  They outplayed Cal Lu, but gave up 2 offensive boards when they were down 3.  They don't have a go-to play-maker and have relied on freshmen Joel and Hogue off the dribble.  A lot of their offense was built around *odd *ramer, so they looked really bad early in conference play after he left, but they're starting to play better now that the freshmen have some experience.  They really need get some recruits with size.

[WoostAr]

CMS is stacked and should be ranked ahead of Whitworth. 

Most recent regional rankings out.

CMS again behind Whitworth....the data for those rankings is here http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=40&division=3

CMS has only beat Whitworth once (2008) out of 4 matchups....CMS needs to earn that spot by either beating Whitworth or hoping another SCIAC school does.  Cal Lu played Whitworth but lost pretty bad earlier this year...same with Chapman...hard to put SCIAC ahead of NWC (Whitworth). 

BUT...SCIAC team (CMS) ahead of MIAC teams (St. Thomas and Gustavus) on the regional rankings....CMS and PP beat St. Olaf and PP played St. Thomas tight, Caltech even beat Macalester for good measure (not sure the judges looked at that matchup)...this has to be progress for the SCIAC, the MIAC is a very good conference and playing them tight and even winning some games will start earning the SCIAC some respect.

would love to see some of those Wisconsin schools on the schedule for next season.

[Gregory Sager]

It has been a crazy year in the SCIAC, but I still don't think there is enough respect from back east to get a Pool C bid. Unfortunately.

I'm always baffled when long-term posters cite "respect" within the context of who gets a Pool C berth and who doesn't. It should be crystal-clear to anyone who has followed this process for more than a year that "respect" has nothing to do with it. It's all about the five primary criteria (and, in the case of a logjam that really can't be sorted out by those primary criteria, by secondary -- non-regional, in other words -- criteria).

[stag44]

quick preview from me:

CMS @ CLU

CMS needs to keep the train rolling. Will be diffucult with a 2game lead with 3 to play, but a win here essentially seals a #1 seed and 4-time regular season champs.. something not sure the last time it was done, maybe PP earlier, if not whittier in the 70s but im sure somehwere in between it occured.

CLU though is fighting for their playoff life. A win here, they are in a decent position to cause some noise. They lose they are essentially out. At home they will have a good crowd and I can see them causing some trouble with their physicality. I think it will be a close game and CMS will be hit in the mouth first and trail for a while, but prevail in the end. Rider will do all he can and Van Klaveran will have another double double, but Blees, Gaffney and Maciera will carry them with games from Pinson Anderson and Mivshek.

CMS wins 61-54

Oxy @ PP

I think PP wins this game, but its a total coin flip. They are at home but Oxy is always tough. I like PP though as they are just more disciplined to handle the Oxy physical slow game, especially at home. they thrive in these situations, and with the win they will get a step closer to winning the 2 seed at home. Oxy has to win this to stay in contention, but think they will come up short on the road.

PP wins 62-53

Redlands @ ULV

Redlands wins over an underachieving ULV team 77-63.

Whittier @ Caltech

Think that this will be close for about 14 minutes before Whittier just goes on a run!

Whittier wins 83-59

[West Coast Bias]

Professor Sager, most people don't even know what the primary selection criteria for a Pool C bid are out west because it happens so infrequently.  I think the reason posters out here cite "respect" as a factor because it often appears that way.  For example, take the current regional rankings.  In the 8 regions, the team with the best record in that region is ranked #1 in 5 of those regions.  The 3 regions that have a team ranked #1 that does not have the best record?  The Midwest - Wash U; Northeast - Amherst; and West - The UWs.  Im sure that there are numbers to back up the rankings in all 3 of those regions, but it is also easy to see why many people think there is a "respect" criteria as well.

Also I would like to get this on the record before the tournament bracket comes out and every starts talking about how the SCIAC never makes any noise in the tournament.  Home teams win NCAA tournament games.  Last year in the tournament the home team went 28-8.  Only 2 of last years sweet 16 teams had to win true road games to get there.  So while it may be true that the SCIAC hasn't "earned respect" by making deep tournament runs, few teams ever make deep tournament runs when they have to play all their tournament games on the road.

[OxyBob]

I'm always baffled when long-term posters cite "respect" within the context of who gets a Pool C berth and who doesn't.

If the SCIAC wants "respect" then all its teams have to do is play somebody and beat somebody. They also might want to consider winning a playoff game. The last time a SCIAC team won a playoff game against anyone other than another SCIAC team was 2003.

Home teams win NCAA tournament games.  Last year in the tournament the home team went 28-8.  Only 2 of last years sweet 16 teams had to win true road games to get there.  So while it may be true that the SCIAC hasn't "earned respect" by making deep tournament runs, few teams ever make deep tournament runs when they have to play all their tournament games on the road.

Fair comment. If the SCIAC champ always has to travel to Whitworth (which sometimes has a first round bye!) then they're not likely to get past the first round.

This year the SCIAC has Claremont and no one else. The Stags are the only team -- if they stumble and don't get the AQ -- that have a chance at a Pool C bid.

OxyBob

[WoostAr]

I'm always baffled when long-term posters cite "respect" within the context of who gets a Pool C berth and who doesn't.

If the SCIAC wants "respect" then all its teams have to do is play somebody and beat somebody. They also might want to consider winning a playoff game. The last time a SCIAC team won a playoff game against anyone other than another SCIAC team was 2003.

Home teams win NCAA tournament games.  Last year in the tournament the home team went 28-8.  Only 2 of last years sweet 16 teams had to win true road games to get there.  So while it may be true that the SCIAC hasn't "earned respect" by making deep tournament runs, few teams ever make deep tournament runs when they have to play all their tournament games on the road.

Fair comment. If the SCIAC champ always has to travel to Whitworth (which sometimes has a first round bye!) then they're not likely to get past the first round.

This year the SCIAC has Claremont and no one else. The Stags are the only team -- if they stumble and don't get the AQ -- that have a chance at a Pool C bid.

OxyBob

...well this is definitely a first.......I completely agree with OxyBob.

So while it may be true that the SCIAC hasn't "earned respect" by making deep tournament runs, few teams ever make deep tournament runs when they have to play all their tournament games on the road.

Great point.

[OxyBob]

Wednesday night's scores:

Claremont 57, Cal Lutheran 46 -- CMS: Maceira 19 pts and 11 rebs, Gaffney 13. CLU: Harris 11, Walton and Nettles 10 each.

Redlands 91, La Verne 86 OT -- UR: Colston 27, Kuklok 23, Brensdal 12, Radford 11. ULV: Woodland 25, Bastos 19, Leggett 11

Oxy 57, Pomona 55 -- OC: McCoy 16, Liebowitz 14 pts and 10 rebs. PP: Cohen 15, McAndrews 11

Whittier 94, Caltech 60 -- WC: Easterman and Menez 17 each, Preer 15, Thomas 14. CIT: Wang 20, Edwards 19, Hogue 11

Oxy stays alive with a win over Pomona. To make the conference tournament the Tigers have to win their last two games against Claremont and CLU, and hope that either Redlands or Pomona lose their last 2 games. Redlands plays @ CLU and home to Caltech, so forget about UR losing 2 straight. Pomona hosts Whittier and is @ CMS; it's entirely possible for the Sagehens to lose both of those games. Oxy can't worry about that; the Tigers have to beat Claremont.

Saturday night's schedule:

Caltech (5-18, 0-12 SCIAC) @ La Verne (5-18, 2-10)
Claremont (22-1, 11-1) @ Oxy (10-12, 6-6)
Whittier (17-6, 9-3) @ Pomona (13-9, 8-4)
Redlands (12-11, 7-5) @ Cal Lutheran (9-13, 5-7)

OxyBob   

[BBallJunkie81]

Looking forward to Saturday night.  Two excellent games on tap:

Claremont (22-1, 11-1) @ Oxy (10-12, 6-6)
Whittier (17-6, 9-3) @ Pomona (13-9, 8-4)

Oxy fighting for their lives...can they pull off the huge upset?  Played well against Pomona; if McCoy, Hanley, Montoya, Liebowitz play well, they can beat anybody in this league.  CMS could be caught looking ahead towards their 6th street rivals on Tuesday.

Whittier goes to Claremont playing well and with revenge on their minds.  At their first meeting, Whittier jumped to a 12-0 lead only to see it vanish quickly and never regained their shooting touch.  Pomona did not look good last night and better get it together or their "surprise" season could come to an end on Tuesday against CMS.

[Gregory Sager]

Professor Sager, most people don't even know what the primary selection criteria for a Pool C bid are out west because it happens so infrequently.

For the sake of reference, here they are:

* Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
* Strength of schedule (includes only contests versus regional opponents, with OWP and OOWP being weighted in favor of OWP and home/away multipliers added as well)
* In-region head-to-head competition
* In-region results versus common regional opponents
* In-region results versus regionally-ranked teams

I think the reason posters out here cite "respect" as a factor because it often appears that way.  For example, take the current regional rankings.  In the 8 regions, the team with the best record in that region is ranked #1 in 5 of those regions.  The 3 regions that have a team ranked #1 that does not have the best record?  The Midwest - Wash U; Northeast - Amherst; and West - The UWs.  Im sure that there are numbers to back up the rankings in all 3 of those regions, but it is also easy to see why many people think there is a "respect" criteria as well.

You've misread the rankings, WCB. Here's the teams with the best record in each region, and the teams that are ranked #1:

region	best record	ranked #1
Atlantic	St. Joseph's (L.I.) (19-2)	William Paterson (21-3)
East	Hartwick (21-2)	Hartwick (21-2)
Great Lakes	Hope (14-0)	Hope (14-0)
Mid-Atlantic	Cabrini (23-0)	Cabrini (23-0)
Midwest	Transylvania (21-2)	Washington (MO) (17-4)
Northeast	MIT (22-1)	Amherst (20-2)
South	Mary Hardin-Baylor (20-1)	Mary Hardin-Baylor (20-1)
West	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (15-1)	UW-River Falls (18-3)

In only half of the eight regions is the team with the best in-region win-loss percentage also the #1 team. That's fairly typical. While in-region win-loss percentage is a criterion that traditionally carries a lot of weight, both with the various regional committees and with the national committee, it's not necessarily the be-all and end-all of the five primary criteria. Strength of schedule, for example, also carries a lot of weight. The Pool C message board (found under Multi-Regional Topics) has an ongoing discussion about which criteria seem to be weighted most heavily.

Also I would like to get this on the record before the tournament bracket comes out and every starts talking about how the SCIAC never makes any noise in the tournament.  Home teams win NCAA tournament games.  Last year in the tournament the home team went 28-8.  Only 2 of last years sweet 16 teams had to win true road games to get there.  So while it may be true that the SCIAC hasn't "earned respect" by making deep tournament runs, few teams ever make deep tournament runs when they have to play all their tournament games on the road.

This is true. The status quo also isn't going to change, regrettably, with regard to the SCIAC's chances of hosting postseason games. As everybody who has followed this league for awhile knows -- or should know -- the combination of D3's need to keep tournament expenses down (because it's not a money-maker; D3 tourneys across the board in the various sports in which it sponsors tournaments are basically financed by the D1 tourney's TV contract) and D3's geography (there are very, very few D3 schools located west of the Missouri River) means that the D3 championships committee will very rarely send teams from other parts of the country to southern California to play in the opening two rounds, and they'll never send teams from other parts of the country to southern California to play a sectional. That's just the way it is. SCIAC teams have to be road warriors in March, and that's all there is to it.

OxyBob's right, though. If the SCIAC wants respect, it's going to have to win some tourney games against other leagues. It hasn't done so since 2003. Even when you factor in the unfortunate truths that home teams usually win in the tourney, and SCIAC teams rarely play at home, that's still a very long drought for the league.

[WoostAr]

Great post...very informative.

It will be interesting to see what happens with next set of regional rankings with Stevens Point and River Falls both losing last night to teams in the bottom half of their conference.

[BBallJunkie81]

Redlands (12-11, 7-5) @ Cal Lutheran (9-13, 5-7)

CLU is playing well, but doesn't match up well against Redlands.  With Pomona playing Whittier and CMS, Redlands has an opportunity to take the 3rd seed and avoid CMS in the first round. 

Redlands 74 CLU 57


Claremont (22-1, 11-1) @ Oxy (10-12, 6-6)

Since getting beat by Redlands, Oxy is playing their best basketball of the season.  I wouldn't be shocked if they catch CMS looking ahead.  It will be interesting to watch McCoy and Liebowitz matchup against Blees and Maceira.   If Liebowitz can stay out of foul trouble, and finish at the rim, it could be interesting. Pinson will have his way, but Gaffaney and Hanley will be fun to watch.  Oxy needs Montoya to shoot well.  I think it will be close, but CMS too strong at the end eliminating Oxy from playoff contention.

CMS 70 Oxy 65


Whittier (17-6, 9-3) @ Pomona (13-9, 8-4)

Best game of the night.  Whittier has taken sole possession of 2nd place and looks to revenge its loss to Pomona at Whittier.  Whittier will shoot better than the first time these two met and be more consciousness regarding Pomona's 3pt shooters.  Pomona is on a 3-3 skid losing to Occidental twice and CLU once.  They are not playing like they did earlier in the year and certainly are not shooting the ball as well.  They let a golden opportunity to clinch a playoff berth against Occidental slip and now have a tough path with Whittier followed by CMS.  Pomona gave Whittier, arguably, it's worse defeat during conference play; Whittier would love to see Pomona slip to 4th seed or eliminated from the playoffs.   After watching Pomona play Oxy on Wednesday, I don't think they are playing well enough to beat Whittier at this point. 

Whittier 79 Pomona 68


Caltech (5-18, 0-12 SCIAC) @ La Verne (5-18, 2-10)

La Verne should handle Caltech rather easily.

La Verne 74  CalTech 61

[CMSfan]

A huge bummer that Oxy makes you pay to watch their video...guess live stats will have to do.

Go Stags!