MBB: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[samiam]

I am not completely sure, but I do not think those rankings include the Pomona loss, look for that loss and a Caltech win to drop Oxy a spot or two down the rankings.

--Stags4Life

Exactly. That's why I said that the situation was worse for Oxy than would be indicated by Wednesday's ranking. It doesn't reflect either the Pomona-Pitzer loss or the upcoming Pyrrhic victory over Caltech.

Let's not write-off Caltech just yet. Tonight might just offer that perfect storm in which they could win. They seem to playing well, and Oxy . . . well, isn't playing as well as they were earlier in the season.

I'm not hoping for a loss for my Tigers. I just won't be surprised if they help Caltech get over their eternal slump.

[TeeDub]

Come on, do we really think Caltech is going to give Oxy a game?...Oxy, despite the losses, isn't playing that poorly.  An overtime loss on the road to  Pomona-Pitzer (traditionally, the class of the league), a close loss on the road to CMS, the best team in the conference, and a close loss to Redlands on a night when they are hitting their shots and Mazarei goes off the chart (the ol' any given night scenario)...to me this doesn't represent Oxy as a poor team...so I just don't see them even letting Caltech be in the game at all...especially with hopes of a post season still looming.

[diehardfan]

I am not completely sure, but I do not think those rankings include the Pomona loss, look for that loss and a Caltech win to drop Oxy a spot or two down the rankings.

Exactly. That's why I said that the situation was worse for Oxy than would be indicated by Wednesday's ranking. It doesn't reflect either the Pomona-Pitzer loss or the upcoming Pyrrhic victory over Caltech.

Hmmm... thought I said that... guess I didn't exactly do that. I guess I was expecting reader to make the leap they were currently fourth and going to stay fourth, their chances would have been excellent for a C bid. If they hadn't lost to PP, or that game was counted in this ranking, they would have simply remained fourth in the regional rankings, and first in line for a pool C.

Their loss, and the corresponding drop in the poll is what will make them the second or third west team in line to get a pool c.
That's what I meant when I said even if "the only upset in the conference tourney is Whitewater or La Crosse upsetting stout, Oxy could still be the second or third Pool C candidate from the region."

I didn't lay my argument out clearly at all. But this is a little more detail about what I think and why I think it.

The next two teams in the rankings (who were going to pass Oxy in the next rankings anyway) are the only ones who will probably upset anyone ranked above them. That means that even with conference upset concerns, Oxy will still be looking at the 2-3 slot in line for a Pool C for the West region. This is a little better than the situation in other regions, where conference upsets will affect teams on the Pool C bubble much more... does that make sense? Oxy's chances are certainly dire, but they are perhaps better than the most dire of dire?

[diehardfan]

Despite my hopes that Oxy still has a chance to get a C bid, let me just say this.

I don't know if Cal Tech will win, but I'm a sure as heck gonna be there to cheer them on!

Go Cal Tech! 20 billion seasons without a D3 win no more! 

[bballfan2]

Assuming they both win Pomona will have a better regional record, and have finished with wins @ LV, @Redlands, vs OXY, and @ Cal Lu, while Oxy finishes with a Loss to CMS, Pomona, Redlands (@HOME), and a win of the Tech, and an earlier HOME loss to LV. I can't see how they're any more deserving of a bid then PP, if I had to hope for one of the two schools to get in I'd pull for PP if only because I think the PP CMS rematch would be great

[Stags4Life]

Come on, do we really think Caltech is going to give Oxy a game?...Oxy, despite the losses, isn't playing that poorly.  An overtime loss on the road to  Pomona-Pitzer (traditionally, the class of the league), a close loss on the road to CMS, the best team in the conference, and a close loss to Redlands on a night when they are hitting their shots and Mazarei goes off the chart (the ol' any given night scenario)...to me this doesn't represent Oxy as a poor team...so I just don't see them even letting Caltech be in the game at all...especially with hopes of a post season still looming.

I do not believe that any given night situation as much as you think it applies to the Redlands game.  Mazarei should not have scored 57 points on a good defensive team.  CMS defeated Redlands 128-70 and I do not believe this is a result of poor shooting by Redlands.  CMS has the best defense in the SCIAC and they shut down Redlands' offense and executed perfectly on their offense to blowout Redlands.  There is no way Mazarei would have scored 57 on CMS and the fact that some Oxy fans blame that loss on "any given night" is ridiculous.

--Stags4Life

[Stags4Life]

I didn't go to Caltech, but I know a little about statistics, including logistic regression and cluster analysis of multivariate data. Based on my analysis, Caltech has exactly three chances of beating Oxy -- slim, none and fat.

OxyBob

I am sorry OxyBob, but you're wrong.  Tonight is Carlson and Ivy's final chance to get a win.  They will be bringing everything they have.  Oxy, on the other hand, will be playing "Caltech" which means the motivated Oxy team that lost to CMS and Pomona will not be playing tonight.  This game is a lose-lose game for Oxy in the regional rankings so really what motivation does Oxy have besides winning and hoping for the best on Sunday Night.  Oxy has already lost two games at home due to poor defense and I would not be surprised if that poor defense showed up tonight.  Caltech definitely has a chance to beat Oxy tonight and if Oxy believes otherwise, then they might be in store for a miracle which would wrap up one of the greatest late season collapses in recent history. 

[samiam]

Come on, do we really think Caltech is going to give Oxy a game?...Oxy, despite the losses, isn't playing that poorly.  An overtime loss on the road to  Pomona-Pitzer (traditionally, the class of the league), a close loss on the road to CMS, the best team in the conference, and a close loss to Redlands on a night when they are hitting their shots and Mazarei goes off the chart (the ol' any given night scenario)...to me this doesn't represent Oxy as a poor team...so I just don't see them even letting Caltech be in the game at all...especially with hopes of a post season still looming.

I hope you're right. However, "the ol' any given night scenario" you use in Oxy's defense can also be used against it. This just might be Caltech's given night.

[samiam]

Assuming they both win Pomona will have a better regional record, and have finished with wins @ LV, @Redlands, vs OXY, and @ Cal Lu, while Oxy finishes with a Loss to CMS, Pomona, Redlands (@HOME), and a win of the Tech, and an earlier HOME loss to LV. I can't see how they're any more deserving of a bid then PP, if I had to hope for one of the two schools to get in I'd pull for PP if only because I think the PP CMS rematch would be great

Has any other school besides Oxy offered anything for us to brag about in the post-season? PP's had their chances. I sure would hate to see a bid go to the infamous one-and-done crew.

[sciacguru]

Has any other school besides Oxy offered anything for us to brag about in the post-season? PP's had their chances. I sure would hate to see a bid go to the infamous one-and-done crew.

I believe that CMS will represent the SCIAC well with them playing the winner of the Independent tourney....Chapman or Neb Wesleyan....if one of those two teams sweep that tourney...I believe they have a great chance of getting in...and I do believe CMS can go up to the NWC and win there.

And as much as I dislike all of Oxy Bob's "stuck-up" posts, Cal Tech is not winning at Oxy!!(cuz noone will score 57 pts)  Even CLU held Amir to 16 and 18 pts.

[TeeDub]

I do not believe that any given night situation as much as you think it applies to the Redlands game.  Mazarei should not have scored 57 points on a good defensive team.  CMS defeated Redlands 128-70 and I do not believe this is a result of poor shooting by Redlands.  CMS has the best defense in the SCIAC and they shut down Redlands' offense and executed perfectly on their offense to blowout Redlands.  There is no way Mazarei would have scored 57 on CMS and the fact that some Oxy fans blame that loss on "any given night" is ridiculous.

--Stags4Life

For a Stags fan, you sure don't do much for the reputation...If Oxy is so bad, how did CMS lose to them once and have such a narrow victory on their own home floor

[TeeDub]

Come on, do we really think Caltech is going to give Oxy a game?...Oxy, despite the losses, isn't playing that poorly.  An overtime loss on the road to  Pomona-Pitzer (traditionally, the class of the league), a close loss on the road to CMS, the best team in the conference, and a close loss to Redlands on a night when they are hitting their shots and Mazarei goes off the chart (the ol' any given night scenario)...to me this doesn't represent Oxy as a poor team...so I just don't see them even letting Caltech be in the game at all...especially with hopes of a post season still looming.

I hope you're right. However, "the ol' any given night scenario" you use in Oxy's defense can also be used against it. This just might be Caltech's given night.

Touche....good point.

[tigersports]

It's the old Herb Brooks theory.  "Hey they beat us 9 times out of ten, why can't this be that one out of ten we beat them."  In this case, it's more like 280 (CT's approximate SCIAC losing streak), but you get the picture.  If it happens, oxybroadcast.com will be on SportsCenter BABY!

[fosheezie]

[Has any other school besides Oxy offered anything for us to brag about in the post-season? PP's had their chances. I sure would hate to see a bid go to the infamous one-and-done crew.

Wow, cruel words from such an expert.  Have you seen some of the teams PP has played in the playoffs.  In the late 90's it was the Wisconsin teams who were killing everybody (see Wisconsin Plateville)  then lately playing Puget Sound.  People think they are bad because Oxy had one good run, but what you dont realize was that was a phenominal team that wont be seen again for a while.

And speaking of another SCIAC bid, I do say if anyone gets it, it should be PP.  They have been playing well lately.  Its no coincidence that this play is coming as Lloyd is getting in shape.  I know he wont like me saying this, but he's not the same player as before after all the knee injuries, but he is playing better now, and so are the Cocks.  You can't give Oxy a bid after choking their butts off like they did.

One other thing, West Coast Whine job, the balance of power will never shift across the street to CMS, they have one won title this year, they might even win next year, but look at what PP and Katz have done.  Take a look inside the gym at all the titles.  You should name the championship trophy after Katz.

Knowles for 2007 MVP!

[samiam]

Wow, cruel words from such an expert.  Have you seen some of the teams PP has played in the playoffs.  In the late 90's it was the Wisconsin teams who were killing everybody (see Wisconsin Plateville)  then lately playing Puget Sound.  People think they are bad because Oxy had one good run, but what you dont realize was that was a phenominal team that wont be seen again for a while.

I probably could have phrased that one better. Apologies to all. However, I've never set myself up as a bastion of wisdom. I'm ignorant, and I know it.

That said, when it comes down to it, does it really matter who the SCIAC representative plays? A loss is a loss. Any asterisk next to it with explanations and rationale for the loss really is just an excuse. You play the game against the team you get assigned to play. Then you either perform or don't. That part of the sport is pretty cut and dry.