D3 vs. D1/D2/NAIA/NCCAA

hopefan · January 19, 2014, 11:33:45 AM

Games of 1/18/14

Silver Lake (USCAA) 88 Finlandia (D3) 79

hopefan · January 19, 2014, 08:53:36 PM

Games of 1/19/14

Coast Guard (D3) 67 Sarah Lawrence (IND-D3 Provisional) 53

hopefan · January 21, 2014, 07:23:26 PM

Games of 1/20/14

Wheaton (Mass.) (D3) 79 Fisher (NAIA-D2) 63
Marian (D3) 76 Northland International (NCCAA-D2) 67

One game closer to NAIA D2!!!

D3 versus
     W   L
NCAA-D1   1   41
NCAA-D2   2   28
NAIA-D1   10   17
NAIA-D2   61   64
NCCAA-D1   7   2
NCCAA-D2   31   9
USCAA   86   22
Other   29   2
Ind-D3 Exploratory   11   3
IND-D3 Provisional   43   3

hopefan · January 21, 2014, 07:27:54 PM

we are 61-64 vs NAIA D2 10 games left Can we go 7-3?

1/21/2014   Johnson & Wales (Colo.)   H   NAIA-D2      Colorado College   A   SCAC
1/22/2014   Ashford   H   NAIA-D2      UW-Stout   A   WIAC
1/23/2014   Fisher   A   NAIA-D2      Daniel Webster   H   NECC
1/25/2014   Concordia (Mi.)   H   NAIA-D2      Concordia (Ill.)   A   NATHC
1/28/2014   Fisher   H   NAIA-D2      Connecticut College   A   NESCAC
2/10/2014   Fisher   A   NAIA-D2      Trinity (Conn.)   H   NESCAC
2/11/2014   St. Louis Pharmacy   A   NAIA-D2      Principia   H   SLIAC
2/12/2014   Fisher   H   NAIA-D2      Fitchburg State   A   MASCAC
2/13/2014   Menlo   H   NAIA-D2      UC Santa Cruz   A   IND
2/22/2014   Clarke   H   NAIA-D2      Maranatha Baptist   A   IND

Gregory Sager · January 21, 2014, 08:37:28 PM

Let's consult Ken Massey's HAL 9000 supercomputer, shall we?

He has projected scores, and the percentage of likelihood that the D3 team will win, for five of the ten remaining D3 vs. NAIA-D2 contests:

Colorado College (D3) 81, Johnson & Wales CO (NAIA-D2) 68 (89% chance of Colorado C. win)
Ashford (NAIA-D2) 58, UW-Stout (D3) 56 (43% chance of UW-Stout win)
St. Louis Pharmacy (NAIA-D2) 82, Principia (D3) 76 (28% chance of Principia win)
Menlo (NAIA-D2) 70, UC-Santa Cruz (D3) 64 (27% chance of UCSC win)
Clarke (NAIA-D2) 92, Maranatha Baptist (D3) 56, (0% chance of Maranatha Baptist win)

(It should be noted that UW-Stout and Ashford have already met this season; the Blue Devils downed Ashford, 56-41, on UW-Stout's home floor in Menominee, WI, back on November 30.)

The other five D3 vs. NAIA-D2 contests aren't listed in the Massey database, so he has no projected results for them. But he does have Daniel Webster, Connecticut College, and Trinity CT, all rated more highly than Fisher in the overall rankings; Fisher is rated above Fitchburg State. Also, Concordia MI is rated above Concordia IL by a significant margin.

It would seem, then, that Massey has the final ten games going 6-4 in favor of NAIA-D2.

hopefan · January 22, 2014, 12:55:18 AM

Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 21, 2014, 08:37:28 PM
Let's consult Ken Massey's HAL 9000 supercomputer, shall we?

He has projected scores, and the percentage of likelihood that the D3 team will win, for five of the ten remaining D3 vs. NAIA-D2 contests:

Colorado College (D3) 81, Johnson & Wales CO (NAIA-D2) 68 (89% chance of Colorado C. win)
Ashford (NAIA-D2) 58, UW-Stout (D3) 56 (43% chance of UW-Stout win)
St. Louis Pharmacy (NAIA-D2) 82, Principia (D3) 76 (28% chance of Principia win)
Menlo (NAIA-D2) 70, UC-Santa Cruz (D3) 64 (27% chance of UCSC win)
Clarke (NAIA-D2) 92, Maranatha Baptist (D3) 56, (0% chance of Maranatha Baptist win)

(It should be noted that UW-Stout and Ashford have already met this season; the Blue Devils downed Ashford, 56-41, on UW-Stout's home floor in Menominee, WI, back on November 30.)

The other five D3 vs. NAIA-D2 contests aren't listed in the Massey database, so he has no projected results for them. But he does have Daniel Webster, Connecticut College, and Trinity CT, all rated more highly than Fisher in the overall rankings; Fisher is rated above Fitchburg State. Also, Concordia MI is rated above Concordia IL by a significant margin.

It would seem, then, that Massey has the final ten games going 6-4 in favor of NAIA-D2.

On the other hand, if we're looking for a way:

Daniel Webster, Conn Coll and Trinity all beat Fisher
Colorado College gets its win
Prin lost close to Pharma before, without 15 ppg guard Larry Patterson.. they are legit chance to win
Stout is able to repeat its victory over Ashford

There is 6
the 7th?

The 7th...
Well, the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs lost by 9 to Chapman, while Chapman blew out Menlo by 24

And Fitchburg got its lone win vs Mass College while Mass College beat Fisher..

And Concordia Ill has a couple surprising wins lately..

It is possible...

hopefan · January 22, 2014, 04:31:10 AM

To continue our coverage of the D3 vs NAIA-D2 competition, Colorado College Beats
Johnson & Wales COlorado 75-65 last night

D3 now 62-64 vs NAIA D2 with 9 games left

tonight the critical UW Stoudt vs Ashford game.. one that D3 almost has to have!!

hopefan · January 22, 2014, 10:21:56 PM

Games of 1/21/14

Toccoa Falls (NCCAA-D2) 85 Berry (D3) 78
Maranatha Baptist (D3) 71 Dayspring Bible (Other) 59
Bowdoin (D3) 82 Maine-Presque Isle (USCAA) 51
North Central (Minn.) (D3) 82 Crossroads (NCCAA-D2) 60
Sage (D3) 89 SUNY-Canton (Ind-D3 Provisional) 79
Colorado College (D3) 75 Johnson & Wales (Colo.) (NAIA-D2) 65

D3 versus
     W   L
NCAA-D1   1   41
NCAA-D2   2   28
NAIA-D1   10   17
NAIA-D2   62   64
NCCAA-D1   7   2
NCCAA-D2   32   10
USCAA   87   22
Other   30   2
Ind-D3 Exploratory   11   3
IND-D3 Provisional   44   3

hopefan · January 22, 2014, 10:29:41 PM

UW Stout loses to Ashford 71-69

This puts D3 at 62-65 with 8 games left... have to go 6-2.... Marantha isn't going to beat Clarke... that means D3 has to go 6-1 in rest of the games.... TOUGH....

hopefan · January 26, 2014, 08:38:28 PM

Games of 1/22/14

Bryn Athyn (Ind-D3 Exploratory) 80 Penn State-Abington (D3) 75
Ashford (NAIA-D2) 71 UW-Stout (D3) 69
SUNY-ESF (USCAA) 83 Green Mountain (D3) 74

Games of 1/23/14

St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 82 Valley Forge Christian (Ind-D3 Provisional) 76
Fisher (NAIA-D2) 74 Daniel Webster (D3) 66
Nazareth (D3) 74 Alfred State (IND-D3 Provisional) 52
Maranatha Baptist (D3) 70 Northland International (NCCAA-D2) 62
Middlebury (D3) 115 St. Joseph's (Vt.) (USCAA) 74

games of 1/24/14

Lancaster Bible (D3) 68 Penn State Lehigh Valley (USCAA) 51

Games of 1/25/14

Concordia (Neb.) (NAIA-D2) 68 Concordia (Wis.) (D3) 64
Concordia (Mi.) (NAIA-D2) 80 Concordia (Ill.) (D3) 74

D3 can no longer finish over .500 vs NAIA-D2

D3 versus
     W   L
NCAA-D1   1   41
NCAA-D2   2   28
NAIA-D1   10   17
NAIA-D2   62   68
NCCAA-D1   7   2
NCCAA-D2   33   10
USCAA   89   23
Other   30   2
Ind-D3 Exploratory   11   4
IND-D3 Provisional   46   3

hopefan · February 14, 2014, 04:39:23 PM

Games played from 1/26/14 through 2/13/14

Princeton (NCAA-D1) 84 Kean (D3) 54
Bryn Athyn (Ind-D3 Exploratory) 69 Cairn (D3) 55
Johnson State (D3) 64 Vermont Tech (USCAA) 55
Connecticut College (D3) 68 Fisher (NAIA-D2) 58
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 70 Pratt (Other) 25
Bates (D3) 78 Maine-Presque Isle (USCAA) 53
Lehman (D3) 94 Sarah Lawrence (IND-D3 Provisional) 49
SUNY-Canton (Ind-D3 Provisional) 92 Johnson State (D3) 87
William Peace (D3) 98 Columbia International (NCCAA-D1) 58
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 97 Vaughn (USCAA) 82
Maranatha Baptist (D3) 103 Dayspring Bible (Other) 54
Northland International (NCCAA-D2) 68 Finlandia (D3) 63
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 71 Albany Pharmacy (Other) 53
Victory (NCCAA-D1) 82 Huntingdon (D3) 69
Tougaloo (NAIA-D1) 84 Rust (D3) 78
Morrisville State (D3) 76 SUNY-Canton (Ind-D3 Provisional) 70
Toccoa Falls (NCCAA-D2) 70 Sewanee (D3) 67
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 92 Sarah Lawrence (IND-D3 Provisional) 75
New Jersey Tech (NCAA-D1) 110 Wheelock (D3) 46
CCNY (D3) 70 Vaughn (USCAA) 67
Maranatha Baptist (D3) 75 Northland International (NCCAA-D2) 73
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.) (D3) 87 Culinary Institute (Other) 61
Silver Lake (USCAA) 88 Finlandia (D3) 81
Merchant Marine (D3) 70 Vaughn (USCAA) 64
New Jersey City (D3) 73 Valley Forge Christian (Ind-D3 Provisional) 57
Trinity (Conn.) (D3) 69 Fisher (NAIA-D2) 55
Colby (D3) 101 Maine-Presque Isle (USCAA) 66
Northland (D3) 61 Northland International (NCCAA-D2) 59
Principia (D3) 77 St. Louis Pharmacy (NAIA-D2) 56
Fisher (NAIA-D2) 94 Fitchburg State (D3) 82
Finlandia (D3) 80 Grace Bible (NCCAA-D2) 79
Lemoyne-Owen (NCAA-D2) 63 Rust (D3) 62
Menlo (NAIA-D2) 76 UC Santa Cruz (D3) 48

D3 versus
     W   L
NCAA-D1   1   43
NCAA-D2   2   29
NAIA-D1   10   18
NAIA-D2   65   70
NCCAA-D1   8   3
NCCAA-D2   36   12
USCAA   95   24
Other   34   2
Ind-D3 Exploratory   11   5
IND-D3 Provisional   50   4

hopefan · May 09, 2014, 04:21:53 PM

I just realized that I dropped the ball on completing scores in the final 3 weeks of the season... kind of late for that, but for documentation purposes, here are final records vs non d3... Regular season... results in NCCAA or USCAA tourneys not included:

   W   L
NCAA-D1   1   43
NCAA-D2   2   29
NAIA-D1   10   19
NAIA-D2   65   71
NCCAA-D1   8   3
NCCAA-D2   41   14
USCAA   96   24
Other   37   2
Ind-D3 Exploratory   11   5
IND-D3 Provisional   51   4

Gregory Sager · May 09, 2014, 09:02:13 PM

Thanks, hopefan!

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · November 17, 2014, 01:25:26 PM

I guess no one is manning this board this year, but I wanted to note we've got four! d3-d1 games this evening:

Newbury is playing Yale
FDU-Florham is playing Farleigh Dickinson
Eureka is playing Eastern Illinois
Cal Lutheran is playing Pepperdine

We already had Goucher getting killed by Howard and Catholic losing to Davidson.

Six games in three days is pretty good. I'm not sure any of these teams has a chance to win, but you wouldn't be super shocked if Yale or Pepperdine lost to d3 teams, would you?

sac · November 17, 2014, 02:23:38 PM

Youngstown State 71 Oberlin 53

clearly Oberlin suffered a post win over Wittenberg hangover.