WBB: Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference

[WLCALUM83]

2012 Northern Athletics Conference Women's Basketball Tournament
http://www.northernac.org/sports/wbkb/2011-12/tournament

Quarterfinals - Wednesday, Feb. 22, 7 p.m.
#8 Benedictine (10-15, 6-11) at #1 Wisconsin Lutheran (21-4, 17-1)
#5 Concordia Wisconsin (15-10, 13-5) at #4 Lakeland (18-7, 13-5)
#7 Marian (13-12, 9-9) at #2 Dominican (17-8, 13-4)
#6 Concordia Chicago (9-16, 7-10) at #3 MSOE (16-9, 11-6)

Semifinals - Friday, Feb. 24, 7 p.m.
#1/8 vs. #4/5
#2/7 vs. #3/6

Final - Saturday, Feb. 25, 7 p.m.

#4 vs. #5:  It'll be interesting to see if Lakeland can beat CUW for the third time this season. Winner here will give Benedictine/WLC winner all they can handle.
#2 vs. #7:  If Dominican is allowed to run the break a lot, it could be a long night for Marian. It may come down to that if both squads are hitting 3s. Stars also had the rebounding edge in the earlier match-up.
#3 vs. #6:  CUC's May has scored more than her average in both of the previous match-ups. Methinks CUC will try to run on the Raiders, (Cougars were able to disrupt MSOE's slower offensive flow a lot in the 2nd half of the last match-up.)
#8 vs. #1:  If WLC ratches up the defense and rebounding intensity like it did yesterday against Dominican, and is able to get a lot of points off turnovers, the Warriors will be OK. Benedictine, however, is showing of late that Goede and Walsh are not the only people on that squad who can pile up the points.
   

[thrunt01]

MSOE knocked off Lakeland, (I've got a feeling that cooling is only going to be temporary, however)

That was the only guess I missed on the NAthCon Challenge.

The difference between the games these teams played was officiating, not good or bad just style and what they allow. MSOE loves to get right in the face of and put heavy ball pressure the rebounder, the refs called things tighter at LC and let more things go in MSOE which made all the difference. When MSOE can put that pressure on, it slows down the muskies fast break and allows MSOE to use their size to their advantage. If the refs don't allow MSOE to get as much pressure that allows LC to get out and run and use their speed and shooting ability. To be clear I'm not complaining just stating an observation, it's just one of those things, variables if you will, that makes each game unique and exciting. This ought to be an exciting tournament.

[WLCALUM83]

2/22/12 guesses:

CUC over MSOE in a mild upset

Dominican over Marian:    Sabers can take this if they're hitting their 3's and crashing the boards big time and the Stars are cold on 3s from the floor -- Stars appear to be better at running the fast break from what this poster has seen.

CUW over Lakeland   (8 chances in 10 it'll come down to yet another Hendrickson buzzer-beater or late game-heroics)  Lakeland can pull off the trifecta if it plays like it did before it's last loss.

WLC over Benedictine:  Potential trap game here -- I expect this to be a bit closer than the first match-up between these squads.

[WLCALUM83]

Turns out I was wrong on CUC/MSOE  (Raiders got a boat load of points off turnovers)

WLC/Benedictine:  Warriors had 23-15 advantage in points off turnovers

Marian/Dominican:  Sabers' Becker goes off for 36 pts, but the Fond du Lac squad falls short  (Dominican: 40-24 rebounding advantage--Stars also hit 8 shots from beyond the arc in the contest.)

CUW/Lakeland:  Falcons had a 48-26 rebounding advantage.


Semi-Finals:   MSOE/Dominican:  (Stars lost by 2 points in both of the previous matchups between these teams --first loss on a Larsen basket with 2 seconds left on the clock).

                   CUW/WLC:    (this year a round earlier than usual for these squads, who if memory serves correct met in the final 2 of the previous 3 seasons).

Intend to reveal my guesses in a couple of days.



 

[WLCALUM83]

2/24/12 guesses:

MSOE over Dominican:   Stars can take this if Raiders have problems taking care of the ball and Dominican gets a lot of fast break points (Cayo had big games in terms of points and rebounds in both of the other matchups).

WLC over CUW:  Putting my heart above my head on this one. Which squad asserts itself on the glass?

[WLCALUM83]

Looks like it'll be a Dominican/WLC final:

MSOE was trailing by 5 with 2 seconds left:

WLC 58, CUW 55  Final

The final will be interesting. The two highest scoring teams in the conference will be going at it. It could very well come down to who has the most left in the tank. The Warriors just beat Dominican last weekend in the NAthCon Challenge game, however, the Stars have shown they can run the break and shoot 3s as well. (they were up 14-9 at one point in that Challenge game--) here's hoping the Warriors can keep up the good D.
 

[WLCALUM83]

Welcome back to the NCAA D3 Tournament, WLC!

Final:  Warriors 85, Dominican 61  (Warriors shot 61% from floor in 1st half and held on, although for a while there in the 2nd half, both teams seemed to be trading turnovers)

[NACfan215]

Opening round WLC at #5 Calvin - Haltime - Calvin 22 WLC 17

Very ugly first half by both teams, however if this pattern continues and WLC can hit a couple extra buckets inside during the second half they have a good chance of pulling off the big upset of the host team.

[NACfan215]

Final Calvin 59 WLC 47

Much closer than it looks, a 5-7 point game the whole way, WLC tied it twice in the second half.  WLC played better in the second half, but Calvin played just a little bit better.

Good representation on the part of th NAC

[WLCALUM83]

Yeah, that 8-0 run Calvin went on after WLC was only down 42-39 was the difference.

[NCF]

How does 2012-13 look? Top returners? Team(s) with the early line on the AQ?

[NACfan215]

How does 2012-13 look? Top returners? Team(s) with the early line on the AQ?

Interesting question, I think there could be a lot of changes throughout the standings next year, many good players (ones that carried their teams) are gone, almost every team has taken some kind of hit.

Always in contention:
WLC- Lose Johnson, someone will step up to take her place, like every other year a great player leaves another is ready to fill in.
CUW- 4 starters return, can they find a big to replace Kerns? what about their depth? Luethe could be POY

In the hunt:
Dominican- Maybe not even in consideration this high up, lost to many key seniors (Blom/Budz), can they reload or are they rebuilding?
Lakeland- Return 4 starters, but only 6 total, can they bring in any impact players? who replaces the NCAA DIII Asst/TO leader?
Maranatha- Surprise team this year, all starter return for a team that beat expectations last year and will only get better.

Something there... but not enough:
Marian- return some good key players, loss of Becker and Zuts to much to overcome, cant live and die on the 3
Edgewood- Tobin returns for final year, can the young players from last year build on their experience?
MSOE- need a big recruiting class to get back to the top, loss of Cayo obviously to big to overcome, especially with current roster, some carry over experience

Need to much to contend:
CUC- loss of Rickett to much, not enough carryovers to be considered contenders
Alverno- See CUC (Kontowski)
Benedictine- Gaede Returns but lose Walsh, need others to step up

Long ways to go:
Rockford- not a good team with Curry, going to be even worse with out, also need to get more bodies, tough season playing with only 7 on the bench for some games
Aurora- new coach, maybe things turn around? not next year though.

Next season could come down to who out of the top 5 teams here can bring in the most impactful freshman? Lots of good players gone, a lot a players are going to have to step up for a lot of teams.  Should be an interesting season though, looking forward to it.

[WLCALUM83]

I agree with most of NACfan215's takes:

Regarding WLC:  Do the Warriors put Dillon in the starting line-up? With the 4 other starters returning, that wouldn't be imperative, --just another option

Dominican could still be up there-- Oliver is capable of stepping up--it'll depend upon whether the returning talls do, too.

Maranatha:  Wouldn't hurt to land another tall or two and another ball-handler to take a bit of that load off Peotter (who logged a lot of minutes last season)

[NCF]

How does 2012-13 look? Top returners? Team(s) with the early line on the AQ?

Interesting question, I think there could be a lot of changes throughout the standings next year, many good players (ones that carried their teams) are gone, almost every team has taken some kind of hit.

Always in contention:
WLC- Lose Johnson, someone will step up to take her place, like every other year a great player leaves another is ready to fill in.
CUW- 4 starters return, can they find a big to replace Kerns? what about their depth? Luethe could be POY

In the hunt:
Dominican- Maybe not even in consideration this high up, lost to many key seniors (Blom/Budz), can they reload or are they rebuilding?
Lakeland- Return 4 starters, but only 6 total, can they bring in any impact players? who replaces the NCAA DIII Asst/TO leader?
Maranatha- Surprise team this year, all starter return for a team that beat expectations last year and will only get better.

Something there... but not enough:
Marian- return some good key players, loss of Becker and Zuts to much to overcome, cant live and die on the 3
Edgewood- Tobin returns for final year, can the young players from last year build on their experience?
MSOE- need a big recruiting class to get back to the top, loss of Cayo obviously to big to overcome, especially with current roster, some carry over experience

Need to much to contend:
CUC- loss of Rickett to much, not enough carryovers to be considered contenders
Alverno- See CUC (Kontowski)
Benedictine- Gaede Returns but lose Walsh, need others to step up

Long ways to go:
Rockford- not a good team with Curry, going to be even worse with out, also need to get more bodies, tough season playing with only 7 on the bench for some games
Aurora- new coach, maybe things turn around? not next year though.

Next season could come down to who out of the top 5 teams here can bring in the most impactful freshman? Lots of good players gone, a lot a players are going to have to step up for a lot of teams.  Should be an interesting season though, looking forward to it.

Sounds like a great opportunity for freshman to come in and contribute immediately. Always a plus in recruiting when players know they have a shot at significant playing time. Should make for an exciting season!!

[RogK]

NACfan215's post got me to look up Marian's stats. For the season (and within conference play), they took 26 3FG att/game and 29 2FG att/game.
They made .325 of their 3FG att, a reasonable pct, equivalent to .487 for 2FGs. Where they were somewhat deficient was in the offensive rebound category, seems to me. They got 30 pct of possible offensive rebounds (.31 in NAC play). If you shoot a lot of threes, the number 1 rule is to contest for offensive rebounds, since you're going to miss 2/3 of the 3FGs.
When I say contest for offensive rebounds, I mean 3 or 4 of your players doing so.
That said, Marian did alright: 9-9 in NAC play and 13-13 overall.
Most of the NAC teams below them lived and died with the 2.