WBB: American Southwest Conference

[thundercat]

dballa, if I remember right  HSU wasn't regionally ranked in the final poll last year and they obviously got a bid.  I think it would take them losing the rest of their games for them to not get in the NCAA tourney, and I just don't see that happening. 

[mcmfan]

I have to disagree about HSU.  I think they get in and make some noise.

How strong is HSU?  Trying to be scientific (!!), a quick check of some point spreads with higher-ranked McM:

McM-HPU, 2 games: HPU over McM by 16  (McM won by 1, then lost by 17)
HSU-HPU, 2 games: HPU over HSU by 15  HSU lost by 5 and then by 10)

McM-HSU, 2 games: HSU over McM by 5   (McM won by 5, then lost by 10)

McM-UMHB, 1 game: McM beat UMHB by 4
HSU-UMHB, 1 game: HSU beat UMHB by 20

Though McM has a better overall record of wins/losses than HSU, HSU actually has a better point count when the points by which it lost are compared to the points by which it won.

I think this team can still do a lot of damage in the playoffs -- the obvious question is: against whom?

[HPU75]

I agree mcmfan.  Being an HPU big fan and alum, and living in salado--near UMHB-- I have seen 3 of the 4 HPU/MCM/HSU games in person.  I did not see either HSU/MCM game. I have also seen ALL  4 UMHB games to date against the big three.  I know HSU is very capable.  In fact, in my humble opinion, if I had to rank the teams  it would be HPU--1, HSU--2 and MCM--3.  I know the head -to-head results say otherwise, but that is my judgment.

[Ralph Turner]

The Criteria we must consider for HSU getting a bid are the published NCAA Criteria:

Won-Lost Percentage
QOW Index
IN region head-to-head
IN region versus common Regional Opponents
Record against regionally ranked teams.

There are comments about these definitions:
Games versus UT-Tyler count.
The regional ranking on Selection Sunday is the official one.
The (ASC) Post-Season Tourney counts in the criteria.

South Region won-loss percentage

Tied for 8th best at .810 (17-4).

South Region QOWI

7th in the South Region at #62 overall.    At 9.857, they can raise their QOWI by a win over CUA (possible 10 point QOWI win) and a win over UMHB (a possible 14 point win).  That would roughly raise the QOWI to 10.000, but might not push them past ETBU.

South Region In Region Head-to-Head for February 7, 2007

1 Howard Payne 19-1 20-1
2 Oglethorpe 15-3 16-5
3 McMurry 17-3 18-3
4 Randolph-Macon 15-2 16-3
5 Hendrix 15-2 20-3
6 Maryville (Tenn.) 13-2 15-3

Regional Rankings for Feb 14, 2007 HSU is back in!

South
1. Howard Payne 21-1 22-1, 11.000
2. Oglethorpe 17-3 18-5, 10.450
3. McMurry 19-3 20-3, 10.182
4. Maryville (Tenn.) 16-2 19-3, 10.176
5. Randolph-Macon 17-3 18-4, 10.150
6. Hardin-Simmons 17-4 18-4, 9.857

HSU is 1-3 versus in-region ranked opponents.

IN region versus common Regional Opponents

Let's consider Oglethorpe vs HSU.  Oglethorpe defeated Southwestern and lost to Trinity.  HSU beat Trinity and lost to Southwestern.  They go 1-1, each.

As we are coming down to the last spot in Pool C, we have to look at how they fared versus other teams.  They beat ETBU.  There are no other ASC contenders for the South Region Rankings.

Those are the only criteria the committee uses.

[Ralph Turner]

Since the ASC-East, as a formal division, has never had a playoff representative in women's basketball, here is what the ASC-East would need to do to be an independent conference on its own.

Five Women's Sports with 7 teams each including one sport from each of the 3 seasons.  These sports are complete.

Women Fall:  Soccer.
Women Winter: Basketball
Women Spring: Softball

To get the ASC-East up to the full complement of 5 women's sports, this must happen:

Women Fall:  Cross Country--  LeTU add the sport.
Women Spring:  Tennis -- ETBU add the sport.

Also possible:

Women Fall:  Volleyball -- UOzarks and LaCollege add the sport for the conference to get the AQ in Volleyball.
Spring Golf: Only LeTU competes--Consider Affiliating with the ASC-West.

Men Fall:  Soccer
Men Winter:  Basketball
Men Spring:  Baseball, Tennis

To get the ASC-East up to the full complement of 5 sports, this must happen:

Men Fall:  Cross Country -- LeTU adds the sport

Also possible:

Men Football:  Miss Coll, LaColl and ETBU may affiliate with the ASC-West.  There are already 5 other conferences that have football affiliates!
Men Golf:  ETBU and UOz add the sport.

Only MissColl has M&W Track and Field -- Consider affiliating with the ASC-West.

As I understand it, UT-Tyler becomes a full member of the NCAA on August 1, 2007.  That gives the full complement of the 7 teams needed for the Automatic Qualifier in Soccer, Basketball and Softball.  With the addition of those proposed additions in Volleyball and Women's Tennis, the conference gets the AQ in those sports!

Let's say that the ASC-East could remain intact, add those sports that I recommended and hold the AQ's in all sports, except football.   The ASC-West could secede and form a brand new conference.  After a 2-year period, the ASC-West, whatever its new name, would have the AQ as well.  The Northern Athletics Conference is doing this now as a new conference.

This is what we would have:

Women Fall:  Volleyball, Soccer (everyone except SRSU).
Women Winter:  Basketball
Women Spring:  Tennis, Softball (everyone except McM).

These are the complete 5 women's sports with no additions needed!

Also possible:

Women's Fall:  Cross Country (HSU, HPU and UMHB add.)
Women's Spring:  Golf:  We have the "core 4" needed to declare an official championship.
Women's Spring:  T&F--We have the "core 4" to declare an official championship.

Men Fall:  Soccer (all except SRSU); Football has the Required Core of 6.  With at least one football affiliate, we can have an AQ after 2 years. 
Men Winter:  Basketball
Men Spring:  Baseball, Tennis

These are the necessary 5 sports in 3 seasons.

Also Possible:

Men Fall:  Cross country--the Core 4 for an official Championship; (needing HPU, HSU, UMHB and TLU to add)
Men Spring:  Men's Golf -- the Core 6 (all except HPU and SRSU).

Football would compete for playoff bids in Pool B for 2 years.  Well-known recent Pool B bids include Linfield, Washington & Jefferson, Carnegie Mellon, and Wesley.

Men's Track and Field--only 3 schools offer, McM, HPU and SRSU.  We would need a 4th to have the necessary number for an official conference championship.  (There have been rumors around Abilene of HSU adding men's and women's track.)

Any sport not getting a Pool A bid competes nationally with other Pool B's for those bids OR they may be invited to affiliate with another conference for their Pool A bid.

Just something to consider.  Looking at this year's outcomes, we could have had extra NCAA bids for Men's Soccer going to MIssissippi College, for Women's Soccer going to UT-D, Volleyball going to either ETBU or UT-Dallas, 2 Pool A bids going to Basketball (UMHB men and ETBU women), and an extra bid for Softball and Baseball!  Now with 2 AQ's in this part of the country, and Trinity, Austin College, Southwestern,Hendrix or Millsaps getting an AQ from the SCAC or UDallas getting a Pool B, splitting into 2 separate conferences increases the chance of playoff games in Texas. 

[dsc]

Ralph, I've read that over carefully and I agree with you 100%    Ha!

You did it again!  I know others would say the same...and all of us appreciate your insight and the time you take to keep us all "informed/educated!"

Thanks a million!

[Ralph Turner]

dsc, that analysis assumes these facts.

1)  The ASC-West remains the same stable 8 teams.  I do not think that we will get a Lubbock Christian or Wayland Baptist to come from NAIA, or anyone else from the NAIA.  UT-PB has gone to D2.  There are no other likely candidates to want to move to D3, IMHO.

2)  The ASC-East remains stable.  In the past few years we have seen these issues.

--We can recall Miss College investigating D2 about 2 years ago.
--We have heard of the questions with Southern Association of Colleges and Schools and LaCollege a couple of years ago.
--We have a UT-Tyler that is growing and growing and building and building.  Even their web site says that they have facilities that rival anything in D3.  Will the UT-Tyler community perceive themselves to be more akin to D2?
--We have a UT-Dallas that is also getting bigger.  Would they follow UT-Permian Basin (newly D-2), UT-San Antonio, UT-Arlington and UT-Pan American (all D1-A non-football) and possibly a UT-Tyler to another classification?  UT-Dallas and UT-Tyler are the only 2 UT System schools in D3.

The converse question can be asked.  Is an ASC-East that does not involve the long distances to Seguin, Kerrville, Abilene and Alpine even more attractive?  I see that D2 Ouachita Baptist and Harding College in Arkansas are the 2 of the 3 private schools in the 15-team (D-2) Gulf South Conference.  Who might move into an ASC-East whose current boundaries are Clarksville AR, Clinton MS, Pineville LA and Longview TX or Tyler or Dallas?

[dsc]

Thanks, Ralph.

BTW, HSU is indicating that Cross Crountry and Men's/Women's track will commence in 2008.

[sethhpu]

HPU clinched at least a share of the West Division title tonight, but  since HPU has the tiebreaker do they get it outright regardless of Saturday?

[Ralph Turner]

HPU clinched at least a share of the West Division title tonight, but  since HPU has the tiebreaker do they get it outright regardless of Saturday?

Yes, if they win.

I have the bracket as:

UMHB W#4
ETBU  E#1
                    ========
LaColl E#3
McM  W#2
=================
HSU W#3
MissColl E#2
                    ========
UOz E#4
HPU W#1

[dballa]

Ralph actually UT Dallas is in the driver seat for that 3rd spot and have already clinched a spot in the tournament.  The standings on the D3hoops ASC page is incorrect.

The conference website has the correct standings on the womens page www.americansouthwestconf.org

The 4th is between La College and Ozarks.

Ozarks plays LETU and La College plays UT Dallas on Saturday. 

[nash]

Ralph,
Your ideas on the East splitting off into a new conference, are these your thoughts alone or is it being discussed?

[thundercat]

Wow, what a game that UMHB/ETBU game would be! 

[mcmfan]

Can anyone figure our McM team?  I can't.  They are capable of moments of greatness, unequalled, I think, by anyone else in the conference -- like their 2nd half win over HPU by one point in the final seconds of that game.  But then they get cold and can't do anything.  Last night with UMHB they were totally cold the first half and eventually got themselves into a 17-point hole -- even though one of the UMHB starters was injured right at the beginning and spent the rest of the game on crutches.  Then, in the second half, they dug themselves out of their self-made hole and won in overtime.  This team seems capable of anything -- except consistency!

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph,
Your ideas on the East splitting off into a new conference, are these your thoughts alone or is it being discussed?

Good morning, nash.  Those ideas were circulating about 6-7 years ago.  Since that time, UDallas has left;  Texas Wesleyan came from D2 thru an exploartory season and then onto the NAIA; UT-Tyler has joined and Austin College has left.

I have kept up with the changes in conferences around the country.  The Northern Athletics Conference has consolidated from the Lake Michigan and the Northern Illinois Iowa Conferences.  The MAC Commonwealth and the MAC Freedom are scrambling to keep their AQ's as members jump between conferences in that part of the country as the Landmark Conference is taking members from multiple conferences and shaking up that part of the country.

I have heard that an expert in NCAA conference formation said that we need about 9-10 schools on the east and the west to stabilize the conferences to do this.  That way, one team in a 7 or 8 team conference cannot "veto" the progress of the conference.  That is the "kicker" in this situation.  This split could happen with 2 groups of very stable institutions.  Do we have that?

Getting someone in from the NAIA would be a 5-6 year proposition.  It also takes 4-5 years for a school to move from D2 or D1.  This is a long propostion and it will take strong consistent leadership from the presidents and the commissioner to do this.

I think that this furthers the student-athlete model that all 15 schools in the ASC have identified and adopted.  I think that the ASC-West is sufficiently stable.  (I would gladly take 1-2 more private schools who might want to join us from this part of the country...there aren't just any.)  I believe that there is greater room for growth and stability in the East.