WBB: American Southwest Conference

[hsusid]

McMurry is ahead of MC for two reasons. They basically have the same in-region record 15-3 to 17-3 and that is what the committee looks at. MCM won head-to-head and MC has a strength of schedule .26 (which is a lot) lower than McMurry.

Over the years I have come to the conclusion that the NCAA is more about strictly numbers than common sense. If not, HSU would have been in the tournaments the last two years and probably not in the tournament in 2006 when they went to the Final Four.

The new way that the NCAA selects teams with opponents winning percentage and opponents opponents winning percentage really restricts teams from the ASC. When you play 21 or 22 of your games against conference teams, both numbers are going to be somewhere around .500 even for the best of teams. That kills us as a league.

Last year a nine-loss team (I think it was Gustavus)  got in the tournament as a pool C and it was all because they had a strong owp and oowp.

Hang on for the ride the next three weeks will be very interesting and probably in a couple of teams cases frustrating, if the past is any indication. However, it is the most exciting time of the year for hoops fans. I think the ASC Tournament could be the best one ever.

[golden_dome]

Millie,
   Glad you posted. You have to remember that the actual regional rankings do not consider the top 25 poll.  The NCAA system takes the regional win/loss record, the OWP and the OOWP and produces a statistical number. Like hsusid said, they usually go strictly by that number in ranking teams regionally and if it's close they will look at other primary criteria like head to head.

   I was a little bit surprised to see McMurry ahead but they do have a slight advantage in OWP and OOWP which offset our two extra regional wins. I wouldn't be surprised that the numbers came out very, very close and the head to head was brought into play since that is the next criteria. Consider this though. McMurry's last four opponents have a combined record of 25-58. Our remaining games have a combined record of 38-45. Hopefully, that helps even out the OWP and removes the head to head from factoring in. I thought the two extra regional wins would be enough, but apparently not.

After seeing the rankings, I think the ASC could very well get three teams into the tourney again if the right three teams win out the regular season. Hopefully, we are one of them.

Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA
championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
- Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OWP).
- Opponents’ Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage (OOWP).
• See Appendix F for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
Note:
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the
rankings/selection process only.
• Conference postseason contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and
fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional and reclassifying
members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

  

[Ralph Turner]

Millie, we have missed you.

hsusid and Chris are right. McMurry gets its OWP knocked down a bit in the next two weeks.

I have run my numbers on the first Regional Rankings.  There are 18 Pool C teams in that regional rankings (if we consider UT-Dallas the "Pool A" for the ASC.)

[nash]

Hey Millie, having read all the replies to your post and having watched the ASC's tournament bids for several years I figure the only way for MC to be assured a bid is to win the ASC tournament.  Even if they pick 2 or 3 ASC teams they will end up playing each other.  I also don't understand how McM's schedule is so much harder than MC's.  MC played 4 D3 regional opponents while McM only played 2.  There is not much difference in the records of all 6 schools.  I know I will be told it is all about the OWP and OOWP but the Massey Ratings have  MC is 10 places ahead of McM in those statistical rankings.

[Ralph Turner]

Hey Millie, having read all the replies to your post and having watched the ASC's tournament bids for several years I figure the only way for MC to be assured a bid is to win the ASC tournament.  Even if they pick 2 or 3 ASC teams they will end up playing each other.  I also don't understand how McM's schedule is so much harder than MC's.  MC played 4 D3 regional opponents while McM only played 2.  There is not much difference in the records of all 6 schools.  I know I will be told it is all about the OWP and OOWP but the Massey Ratings have  MC is 10 places ahead of McM in those statistical rankings.

Nash, good morning.

As Chris stated, McMurry has three more games against teams with low OWP's.  That may be enough to flip the two schools in next week's poll.

If all else is roughly equal, then McMurry has the head-to-head over Miss College.  That may be the difference that the Regional Committee used to rank them in that order.

As for Massey, Miss College is #13 in the "plain" system at .500.  McMurry is .473.  Mississippi College is closer to McMurry at #16 than to #12 Amherst.  However in both systems, McMurry has a higher schedule strength number.

In the MOV, Miss College is #13 at .581; McM #23, and a .482  rating.   Today, Massey MOV calculates that Mississippi College is a 3+ point favorite on a neutral floor.

Had McMurry played at Mississippi College on that road trip, then MC might have won.

[Ralph Turner]

One thing that I do not like about the Women's Regional Rankings is that they only rank 6 teams.

I wish that they would rank (55 full members divided by 6.5 teams per bid = 8.46) 8 teams regionally, and then consider a team regionally ranked "once ranked, always ranked".

[mcmfan]

Big game last night between HSU and HPU -- it ties them for 2nd place in the west, and puts McM two games ahead of both of them for 1st place and hosting the tournament.  As a McM fan, my first reaction is to gloat, but then I see that HPU won by 17 points -- not exactly a close game.  Can anyone who was there comment on the outcome?  Can McM expect the same treatment from a suddenly resurgent HPU team, or was there some special factor like someone being sick on the HSU squad that explains the outcome?

[dballa]

I haven't posted much lately because of a new job I started last July but I've been around and still at the home games.

HPU played really good defense on the perimeter and really slowed down HSU's shooters.  HSU didn't make a 3 in the first half which I'm sure they aren't use to doing.

In the 2nd half HPU pulled away playing great defense and hitting some big shots.

Newcombe had a great game for HSU on both ends of the floor but she was really the only one that was a factor at all.

[JACKET84]

Last night was the best all around team effort I've seen from HPU this season.  If they play that well tomorrow against McM, McM will have their hands full, and then some.

[JACKET84]

Newcombe had a great game for HSU on both ends of the floor but she was really the only one that was a factor at all.

As I remember last year in the tournament in Tyler she had 35 points against HPU.

[mcmfan]

Last night was the best all around team effort I've seen from HPU this season.  If they play that well tomorrow against McM, McM will have their hands full, and then some.

No doubt about that.  From the description of the game on the HPU website, it sounds like HSU just went cold during the second half (or was completely shut down by the HPU defense).  The LIB have to realize that things they did against SRSU last night are going to be a whole lot harder against the Yellow Jackets.

[fanstand]

LIB must play good defense tomorrow. HPU is always tough at home, and we must get better at this point of the year. Even though there is a two game lead, we cannot be comfortable in our position.  It helps to be playing well going into the tourney no matter where it is played. The East is coming, we must be ready, but we have to play well at Bwood first. I can't make predictions, but still believing....

[Ralph Turner]

I lost the McMurry Radio signal, so I switched over to Dallas Huston for HPU.

He had a question on the tie-breakers.

Here is the link for ASC tie-breakers.

McMurry will clinch the outright ASC-West title, and to privilege of hosting the tourney, with wins over TLU and Schreiner next week.


Enjoyed your broadcast, Dallas!

[golfniz1]

My first post of the year and have been keeping up with the ASC Conference this year and wow is it solid this year compared to last.  The conference tourney should be a great one with some very good basketball teams battling it out for the championship.  HPU is hitting its stride at the right time after beating McMurry on Saturday it looks like they could be a force to watch out for.  The East teams look good this year with UTD leading the way, but can the pressure of the tournament be to much for these teams to hold off the West Division teams.  The West is so battle tested year end and out it is going to be interesting to see.  I see 5 teams that could compete in any conference anywhere HPU, HSU, McMurry, UTD and Mississippi College.  Good luck to all and may the best team win.  (WAR TO HOWARD PAYNE UNIVERSITY THE DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPIONS AND THE ASC)

[Ralph Turner]

My first post of the year ...

Yeah!  Where have you been?  

All of the usual HSU and HPU posters have gone into seclusion (because their team wasn't in first place?)

We haven't had any game reports for you guys or anything!

C'mon!  Start posting!  Don't be fair-weather posters!  We miss you guys!

(The HPU-McM game was as good as we thought.  Hope to see you in the re-match in Abilene.)