WBB: American Southwest Conference

[CUAfan]

Per-Possession standings, through games of 12/19

ASC West
Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
Concordia-Texas (6-0) - 0.97/0.72/+0.25/77.8
McMurry (6-0) - 0.98/0.80/+0.18/67.1
Howard Payne (5-2) - 1.04/0.89/+0.15/74.6
Hardin-Simmons (2-4) - 0.96/0.94/+0.01/71.3
Texas Lutheran (2-3) - 0.87/0.93/-0.07/71.2
Schreiner (1-4) - 0.80/0.93/-0.13/69.0
Mary Hardin-Baylor (0-6) - 0.71/0.93/-0.21/72.6
Sul Ross State (1-6) - 0.72/1.08/-0.36/75.1

ASC East
Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
Louisiana College (6-1) - 1.05/0.80/+0.25/86.2
Texas-Dallas (4-1) - 0.99/0.83/+0.16/67.0
Mississippi College (4-3) - 0.85/0.78/+0.07/71.1
Ozarks (3-4) - 0.88/0.92/-0.04/68.9
Texas-Tyler (3-4) - 0.86/0.92/-0.06/73.6
LeTourneau (2-5) - 0.77/0.88/-0.11/71.5
East Texas Baptist (2-4) - 0.85/0.97/-0.12/73.0

[CUAfan]

Projections for games from 12/20 through 12/26 (only two). The home-court adjustment from the men's projections is not present here (yet) since I don't have the data gathered to include it yet.

Schreiner 55 vs. Texas-Dallas 65 (68 possessions)
Schreiner 36 vs. Texas-Dallas 63 (61 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 58 vs. Texas-Dallas 66 (69 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 33 vs. Texas-Dallas 55 (66 possessions)

[mcmfan]

Anybody watch the CTX - LA game?  The Tornados seem to be really hot this year.  They've always been a contender behind HPU and McM for the tournament, but is this their breakout year?

[Ralph Turner]

Anybody watch the CTX - LA game?  The Tornados seem to be really hot this year.  They've always been a contender behind HPU and McM for the tournament, but is this their breakout year?

Coach Rainbolt would love to win the conference crown!

[CUAfan]

The per-possession standings didn't change at all with the two Texas-Dallas games this week (though UTD did very nearly overtake LC for the top spot after two dominating wins). Since there won't be any more games for a while, I thought it would be a good time to call out some of the top team performances so far. Of course, me being me, this is all in per-possession terms.

Best Offensive Performances
1.25 - Howard Payne vs. Sul Ross State, 12/17
1.22 - Louisiana College vs. Howard Payne, 12/1
1.18 - Ozarks vs. Hardin-Simmons, 12/3

Best Defensive Performances
0.50 - Texas-Dallas at Texas Lutheran, 12/22
0.58 - Mississippi College at Texas Lutheran, 11/26
0.59 - Texas-Tyler vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 12/3

Biggest Offensive Shootouts
Ozarks (1.18) vs. Hardin-Simmons (1.14), 12/3
East Texas Baptist (1.16) vs. Schreiner (0.98), 12/1
Louisiana College (1.22) vs. Howard Payne (0.89), 12/1

Biggest Defensive Struggles
Texas-Tyler (0.75) vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor (0.59), 12/3
Texas Lutheran (0.50) vs. Texas-Dallas (0.84), 12/22
Texas Lutheran (0.58) vs. Mississippi College (0.82), 11/26

Most Dominating Wins
+0.53 - Texas-Dallas (1.13) at Sul Ross State (0.60), 11/28
+0.51 - Howard Payne (1.25) vs. Sul Ross State (0.74), 12/17
+0.50 - Louisiana College (1.17) vs. Sul Ross State (0.67), 12/3

Closest Contests
+0.029 - Mary Hardin-Baylor (0.94) vs. East Texas Baptist (0.97)
+0.038 - Sul Ross State (0.98) vs. Texas-Tyler (0.94)
+0.043 - Ozarks (1.18) vs. Hardin-Simmons (1.14)

[CUAfan]

Projections for the two games this coming weekend.

Sul Ross State 61 vs. Howard Payne 79 (75 poss.)
Sul Ross State 51 vs. Howard Payne 86 (74 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 62 vs. Schreiner 58 (69 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 63 vs. Schreiner 72 (68 poss.)

I also have all the team historical data compiled, except for 1996-97 due to lack of data. Hopefully, I'll be able to post some of it this week.

Edit: Oops, forgot to include the home-court advantage. Not that it changed much.

[CUAfan]

With the win over Schreiner, Howard Payne took over the second spot in the West over McMurry. No other changes to the rankings.

January 5, 2012
LeTourneau 61 vs. Texas Lutheran 60 (71 poss.)
LeTourneau 62 vs. Texas Lutheran 52 (79 poss.)
Mississippi College 57 vs. McMurry 61 (69 poss.)
Mississippi College 51 vs. McMurry 50 (68 poss.)
Ozarks 64 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 58 (71 poss.)
Ozarks 73 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 63 (69 poss.)
Louisiana College 79 vs. Hardin-Simmons 69 (79 poss.)
Louisiana College 80 vs. Hardin-Simmons 68 (94 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 63 vs. Howard Payne 75 (74 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 45 vs. Howard Payne 80 (83 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 64 vs. Schreiner 61 (71 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 57 vs. Schreiner 44 (60 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 61 vs. Concordia-Texas 62 (72 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 52 vs. Concordia-Texas 47 (78 poss.)

January 7, 2012
East Texas Baptist 72 vs. Sul Ross State 62 (74 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 78 vs. Sul Ross State 51 (74 poss.)
Louisiana College 71 vs. McMurry 68 (77 poss.)
Louisiana College 81 vs. McMurry 72 (93 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 65 vs. Texas Lutheran 63 (72 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 94 vs. Texas Lutheran 56 (68 poss.)
LeTourneau 60 vs. Schreiner 59 (70 poss.)
LeTourneau 56 vs. Schreiner 48 (62 poss.)
Ozarks 59 vs. Concordia-Texas 69 (73 poss.)
Ozarks 59 vs. Concordia-Texas 74 (70 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 66 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 51 (69 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 65 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 48 (67 poss.)
Mississippi College 64 vs. Hardin-Simmons 62 (71 poss.)
Mississippi College 45 vs. Hardin-Simmons 59 (68 poss.)

[CUAfan]

Program rankings as of the 2010-11 season, regular season games only. Calculated by a weighted average of the last five seasons' per-possession differentials. Also included is my subjective estimation of the direction* the program was going before the season based on the inputs.

Howard Payne, +0.21, trending down**
Louisiana College, +0.16, trending strongly up
McMurry, +0.16, trending slightly down**
Hardin-Simmons, +0.13, trending down**
Texas-Dallas, +0.13, trending up
Mississippi College, +0.11, trending slightly up
Mary Hardin-Baylor, +0.08, trending slightly up
Texas-Tyler, +0.03, trending down
Concordia-Texas, +0.01, trending slightly up
East Texas Baptist, -0.04, trending slightly down
Ozarks, -0.09, trending slightly up
Texas Lutheran, -0.13, trending strongly up
LeTourneau, -0.21, steady
Schreiner, -0.23, trending slightly down
Sul Ross State, -0.31, trending down

* - This doesn't mean it is going to continue in that direction, even this year. It just means that over the last five years, have they gone generally up or down.
** - I want to clarify that these three teams are only trending down because they have gone from elite to merely very good. It's not as if I'm saying they're headed to Sul Ross territory or anything.

I'm sorry if I annoy anyone with my continual numbers posting. I find this way of looking at the season and the history of the ASC interesting and I hope the rest of you do too.

[Ralph Turner]

MC's Sarah Workman steals the ball with 14 secs left and then hits the FG with 5 secs left to lift MC to a 51-50 win over McMurry in Mississippi.

[Ralph Turner]

Not a good road trip for McMurry. They lose at LC 81-72.

[CUAfan]

What a weekend. Howard Payne takes over the top spot in the West by a hair over CTX while McMurry stumbles a bit. Texas-Tyler improves their season differential by +0.09 on the strength of a +0.56 performance against TLU to move into fourth in the East. And I continue to wonder how on earth Sul Ross beat Texas-Tyler (I intend to look at that box score in depth once the season is over; it's gotta be the biggest upset of the year and I want to know how it happened).

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Howard Payne (7-2) - 1.04/0.83/+0.22/75.4
2. Concordia-Texas (7-1) - 0.93/0.73/+0.20/76.9
3. McMurry (6-2) - 0.92/0.81/+0.11/70.4
4. Hardin-Simmons (3-5) - 0.91/0.90/+0.01/73.8
5. Schreiner (2-7) - 0.80/0.94/-0.14/66.2
6. Texas Lutheran (2-7) - 0.80/0.97/-0.16/70.7
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor (0-8) - 0.74/0.95/-0.21/71.4
8. Sul Ross State (1-8) - 0.71/1.09/-0.37/74.8

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Louisiana College (8-1) - 1.00/0.78/+0.22/87.9
2. Texas-Dallas (8-1) - 0.93/0.73/+0.21/67.4
3. Mississippi College (5-4) - 0.82/0.78/+0.03/70.4
4. Texas-Tyler (4-5) - 0.92/0.90/+0.03/71.4
5. Ozarks (4-5) - 0.90/0.94/-0.04/69.0
6. LeTourneau (4-5) - 0.79/0.84/-0.05/71.3
7. East Texas Baptist (3-5) - 0.83/0.93/-0.10/74.4

[CUAfan]

Projections for next week, since games will start on Monday and I'm going to be out of town until probably mid-day.

January 9
Texas-Dallas 64 vs. Ozarks 55 (68 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 62 vs. Ozarks 49 (65 poss.)
LeTourneau 61 vs. Texas-Tyler 62 (71 poss.)
LeTourneau 73 vs. Texas-Tyler 70 (74 poss.)

January 10
Mary Hardin-Baylor 55 vs. Concordia-Texas 69 (74 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 51 vs. Concordia-Texas 64 (77 poss.)

January 12
East Texas Baptist 66 vs. Louisiana College 78 (81 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 73 vs. Louisiana College 106 (105 poss.)
Sul Ross State 61 vs. Hardin-Simmons 73 (74 poss.)
Sul Ross State 45 vs. Hardin-Simmons 83 (65 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 64 vs. Texas-Tyler 57 (69 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 68 vs. Texas-Tyler 59 (70 poss.)
Howard Payne 68 vs. McMurry 63 (73 poss.)
Howard Payne 67 vs. McMurry 57 (71 poss.)
Schreiner 61 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 57 (69 poss.)
Schreiner 65 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 59 (62 poss.)
Ozarks 62 vs. LeTourneau 60 (70 poss.)
Ozarks 72 vs. LeTourneau 59 (63 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 71 vs. Texas Lutheran 56 (70 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 64 vs. Texas Lutheran 59 (78 poss.)

January 14
Ozarks 64 vs. Texas-Tyler 65 (70 poss.)
Ozarks 62 vs. Texas-Tyler 57 (68 poss.)
Sul Ross State 56 vs. McMurry 72 (73 poss.)
Sul Ross State 36 vs. McMurry 80 (67 poss.)
Howard Payne 73 vs. Hardin-Simmons 64 (75 poss.)
Howard Payne 75 vs. Hardin-Simmons 69 (81 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 68 vs. Schreiner 54 (72 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 52 vs. Schreiner 41 (65 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 61 vs. Texas Lutheran 62 (71 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 70 vs. Texas Lutheran 55 (71 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 62 vs. LeTourneau 52 (69 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 59 vs. LeTourneau 52 (69 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 59 vs. Mississippi College 63 (72 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 47 vs. Mississippi College 58 (75 poss.)

[CUAfan]

Top performances of the week:

Best Offense: 1.28, Hardin-Simmons at Sul Ross State (1/12)
Best Defense: 0.53, McMurry at Sul Ross State (1/14)
Biggest Offensive Shootout: Ozarks (1.14) vs. LeTourneau (0.93), 1/12
Biggest Defensive Struggle: East Texas Baptist (0.62) vs. Mississippi College (0.77), 1/14
Most Dominating Victory: +0.65, McMurry (1.19) at Sul Ross State (0.53), 1/14
Closest Contest: +0.04, LeTourneau (0.99) vs. Texas-Tyler (0.94), 1/9

[CUAfan]

Halfway through, there seem to be five main contenders for the tournament title and the autobid: Howard Payne, Concordia, and McMurry from the West, and Louisiana College and Texas-Dallas from the East.

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Howard Payne (9-2) - 1.02/0.83/+0.20/75.5
2. Concordia-Texas (10-1) - 0.90/0.72/+0.18/75.8
3. McMurry (7-3) - 0.93/0.80/+0.14/70.1
4. Hardin-Simmons (4-6) - 0.94/0.88/+0.05/73.6
5. Schreiner (3-8) - 0.81/0.93/-0.12/65.7
6. Texas Lutheran (2-9) - 0.80/0.95/-0.16/71.4
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor (1-10) - 0.77/0.93/-0.16/70.9
8. Sul Ross State (1-10) - 0.70/1.11/-0.41/73.2

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Louisiana College (9-1) - 1.00/0.77/+0.23/89.6
2. Texas-Dallas (11-1) - 0.93/0.74/+0.19/67.5
3. Mississippi College (6-4) - 0.81/0.77/+0.05/70.9
4. Texas-Tyler (5-7) - 0.91/0.91/+0.00/71.2
5. Ozarks (6-6) - 0.91/0.93/-0.02/68.1
6. LeTourneau (5-7) - 0.81/0.87/-0.06/70.7
7. East Texas Baptist (3-7) - 0.79/0.93/-0.14/77.5

And if anyone is wondering, Centenary would be seventh in the East with a -0.09 mark in ASC play.

[CUAfan]

Predictions for Thursday and Saturday.

January 19
Texas-Tyler 69 vs. East Texas Baptist 63 (74 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 68 vs. East Texas Baptist 60 (73 poss.)
Louisiana College 77 vs. Ozarks 66 (79 poss.)
Louisiana College 102 vs. Ozarks 62 (90 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 68 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 59 (72 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 63 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 47 (66 poss.)
Mississippi College 54 vs. Texas-Dallas 58 (69 poss.)
Mississippi College 44 vs. Texas-Dallas 42 (73 poss.)
Schreiner 67 vs. Sul Ross State 56 (69 poss.)
Schreiner 72 vs. Sul Ross State 38 (62 poss.)
McMurry 61 vs. Concordia-Texas 62 (73 poss.)
McMurry 55 vs. Concordia-Texas 39 (76 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 60 vs. Howard Payne 72 (73 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 45 vs. Howard Payne 56 (73 poss.)

January 21
LeTourneau 65 vs. East Texas Baptist 61 (74 poss.)
LeTourneau 58 vs. East Texas Baptist 53 (72 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 62 vs. Concordia-Texas 66 (75 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 53 vs. Concordia-Texas 63 (72 poss.)
Schreiner 58 vs. Howard Payne 69 (71 poss.)
Schreiner 44 vs. Howard Payne 76 (67 poss.)
Louisiana College 69 vs. Texas-Dallas 67 (79 poss.)
Louisiana College 64 vs. Texas-Dallas 54 (81 poss.)
McMurry 66 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 55 (71 poss.)
McMurry 65 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 45 (70 poss.)
Mississippi College 61 vs. Ozarks 58 (70 poss.)
Mississippi College 59 vs. Ozarks 50 (68 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 69 vs. Sul Ross State 59 (72 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 79 vs. Sul Ross State 54 (65 poss.)