WBB: American Southwest Conference

[mcmfan]

Argh! Our inconsistent McM men's team seems to be a bad influence on our women!  McM swept HSU this season; HSU beat TLU by twenty points two days ago, and McM allows TLU to run all over them today.  Do they all have the flu?  Or are they all getting ready for Superbowl parties tomorrow?  Obviously, this McM fan is not amused.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm picking the winner correctly 84% of the time for the women's games, ignoring the ones which came out a tie in the original prediction. Not sure yet for the men's games, though I think it's going to be lower since there is more parity on that side of things.

And how many of those 16% are in games considered as "toss-ups"?

A comparable amount of games in the 84% are "tossup", too.

Thanks.

[CUAfan]

I did not include any games which were projected to a tie in my calculations, since there was no clear winner predicted.

That said, I did have to do that pretty quick while at work the other day, so it's possible I miscounted something. I'll try to get back to it later tonight or tomorrow after completing the data input for the weekend to double-check.

[CUAfan]

Top Performances of the Week

Best Offense: 1.19, Texas-Dallas vs. East Texas Baptist, 2/4
Best Defense: 0.58, Hardin-Simmons at Texas Lutheran, 2/2
Biggest Win: +0.44, Louisiana College (1.05) vs. LeTourneau (0.61), 2/4
Closest Win: +0.05, McMurry (0.95) at Hardin-Simmons (0.90), 1/30
Most Combined Offense: Texas-Dallas (1.19) vs. East Texas Baptist (0.93), 2/4
Least Combined Offense: Texas Lutheran (0.58) vs. Hardin-Simmons (0.85), 2/2

[CUAfan]

Updated Rankings

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Howard Payne (14-3) - 0.99/0.79/+0.20/75.6
2. Concordia-Texas (14-3) - 0.88/0.74/+0.14/76.7
3. McMurry (13-4) - 0.92/0.79/+0.13/68.5
4. Hardin-Simmons (9-8) - 0.93/0.85/+0.08/70.8
5. Texas Lutheran (4-13) - 0.82/0.93/-0.11/70.5
6. Mary Hardin-Baylor (3-14) - 0.79/0.92/-0.13/71.9
7. Schreiner (4-13) - 0.81/0.95/-0.14/64.2
8. Sul Ross State (1-16) - 0.71/1.10/-0.39/73.3

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Louisiana College (15-1) - 1.01/0.76/+0.25/88.0
2. Texas-Dallas (13-3) - 0.90/0.74/+0.16/+0.16/69.0
3. Mississippi College (11-5) - 0.80/0.75/+0.05/70.6
4. Texas-Tyler (6-11) - 0.89/0.91/-0.02/72.7
5. Ozarks (7-9) - 0.87/0.92/-0.05/70.2
6. LeTourneau (7-10) - 0.78/0.87/-0.09/73.0
7. East Texas Baptist (4-12) - 0.79/0.93/-0.13/75.4

[CUAfan]

Projections for the week:

February 9
East Texas Baptist 64 vs. Texas-Tyler 66 (74 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 71 vs. Texas-Tyler 80 (72 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 59 vs. Mississippi College 53 (70 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 52 vs. Mississippi College 55 (63 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 62 vs. McMurry 59 (73 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 59 vs. McMurry 50 (73 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 60 vs. Hardin-Simmons 65 (71 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 83 vs. Hardin-Simmons 79 (74 poss.)
Ozarks 66 vs. Louisiana College 75 (79 poss.)
Ozarks 66 vs. Louisiana College 86 (90 poss.)
Sul Ross State 58 vs. Schreiner 65 (69 poss.)
Sul Ross State 53 vs. Schreiner 61 (64 poss.)
Howard Payne 71 vs. Texas Lutheran 58 (73 poss.)
Howard Payne 85 vs. Texas Lutheran 62 (75 poss.)

February 11
East Texas Baptist 63 vs. LeTourneau 62 (74 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 66 vs. LeTourneau 72 (71 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 65 vs. Hardin-Simmons 60 (74 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 70 vs. Hardin-Simmons 57 (73 poss.)
Howard Payne 69 vs. Schreiner 55 (70 poss.)
Howard Payne 51 vs. Schreiner 49 (62 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 66 vs. Louisiana College 67 (78 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 69 vs. Louisiana College 61 (84 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 57 vs. McMurry 64 (70 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 60 vs. McMurry 72 (68 poss.)
Ozarks 58 vs. Mississippi College 60 (70 poss.)
Ozarks 65 vs. Mississippi College 49 (68 poss.)
Sul Ross State 60 vs. Texas Lutheran 68 (72 poss.)
Sul Ross State 68 vs. Texas Lutheran 80 (70 poss.)

[CUAfan]

Bonus this week! Conference season-to-date rankings for Dean Oliver's Four Factors (see link for details). For free throw rate, I also multiply the result by 100 since I think the numbers look better that way. Today, the offensive numbers. Tomorrow, defense.

Effective FG%
1. Howard Payne, 0.469
2. Mississippi College, 0.446
3. Texas-Dallas, 0.443
4. Texas Lutheran, 0.441
5. Ozarks, 0.431
6. Concordia-Texas, 0.430
7. Hardin-Simmons, 0.423
8. Louisiana College, 0.423
9. Texas-Tyler, 0.416
10. McMurry, 0.403
11. LeTourneau, 0.403
12. Sul Ross State, 0.390
13. Schreiner, 0.384
14. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 0.382
15. East Texas Baptist, 0.364

Turnover Rate
1. Louisiana College, 20.7%
2. Howard Payne, 23.6%
3. Ozarks, 24.3%
4. McMurry, 24.7%
5. Hardin-Simmons, 25.8%
6. Texas-Tyler, 26.7%
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 27.1%
8. Texas-Dallas, 27.7%
9. Concordia-Texas, 28.5%
10. Schreiner, 29.4%
11. East Texas Baptist, 29.8%
12. Mississippi College, 32.3%
13. Texas Lutheran, 32.4%
14. Sul Ross State, 33.6%
15. LeTourneau, 33.8%

Offensive Rebound Rate
1. McMurry, 43.4%
2. East Texas Baptist, 42.5%
3. LeTourneau, 38.1%
4. Texas-Tyler, 37.2%
5. Howard Payne, 37.1%
6. Concordia-Texas, 36.6%
7. Hardin-Simmons, 36.4%
8. Texas-Dallas, 34.5%
9. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 33.8%
10. Louisiana College, 33.6%
11. Schreiner, 33.1%
12. Texas Lutheran, 31.3%
13. Mississippi College, 29.8%
14. Sul Ross State, 28.0%
15. Ozarks, 26.3%

Free Throw Rate
1. Schreiner, 31.6
2. Hardin-Simmons, 31.4
3. LeTourneau, 27.6
4. Texas-Tyler, 27.1
5. Texas Lutheran, 26.4
6. Mississippi College, 25.1
7. Ozarks, 24.9
8. Texas-Dallas, 24.6
9. Concordia-Texas, 23.8
10. Howard Payne, 23.2
11. Sul Ross State, 21.0
12. East Texas Baptist, 20.1
13. McMurry, 18.6
14. Louisiana College, 18.3
15. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 17.0

[CUAfan]

As promised, the defensive numbers to go with yesterday's offensive stats. One deviation from the yesterday's link is that I calculate free throw rate differently for defense. Since the offensive goal is to get to the line and score, using FTM makes sense. However, since the defensive goal is to keep the opponent from getting to the line in the first place (and the defense has little to no control over whether or not a FT is missed), I use FTA in the calculations for defensive free throw rate.

Effective FG%
1. Texas-Dallas, 0.356
2. Concordia-Texas, 0.379
3. Mississippi College, 0.379
4. McMurry, 0.385
5. LeTourneau, 0.392
6. Howard Payne, 0.405
7. Hardin-Simmons, 0.410
8. Texas Lutheran, 0.411
9. Ozarks, 0.418
10. Texas-Tyler, 0.421
11. Louisiana College, 0.426
12. East Texas Baptist, 0.445
13. Schreiner, 0.451
14. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 0.455
15. Sul Ross State, 0.486

Turnover Rate
1. Louisiana College, 39.8%
2. Concordia-Texas, 37.3%
3. Mississippi College, 32.6%
4. Howard Payne, 31.6%
5. McMurry, 31.2%
6. Texas-Dallas, 29.5%
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 26.5%
8. LeTourneau, 26.0%
9. Hardin-Simmons, 24.8%
10. Schreiner, 24.5%
11. Ozarks, 23.4%
12. East Texas Baptist, 23.2%
13. Texas Lutheran, 22.9%
14. Sul Ross State, 21.7%
15. Texas-Tyler, 21.6%

Offensive Rebound Rate
1. Hardin-Simmons, 29.0%
2. East Texas Baptist, 31.6%
3. Howard Payne, 32.5%
4. McMurry, 33.3%
5. Texas-Tyler, 34.5%
6. Texas-Dallas, 34.6%
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 35.3%
8. LeTourneau, 35.5%
9. Schreiner, 35.6%
10. Mississippi College, 36.1%
11. Ozarks, 36.7%
12. Texas Lutheran, 37.0%
13. Louisiana College, 38.3%
14. Concordia-Texas, 39.1%
15. Sul Ross State, 47.3%

Free Throw Rate
1. East Texas Baptist, 25.8
2. Ozarks, 28.5
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 30.1
4. Sul Ross State, 30.4
5. Mississippi College, 30.6
6. Schreiner, 31.9
7. Howard Payne, 32.0
8. Texas-Tyler, 33.0
9. Texas Lutheran, 34.1
10. Texas-Dallas, 35.6
11. Hardin-Simmons, 37.9
12. LeTourneau, 41.8
13. McMurry, 41.9
14. Concordia-Texas, 42.0
15. Louisiana College, 49.5

[CUAfan]

Top Performances of the Week

Best Offense: 1.15, Texas Lutheran at Sul Ross State, 2/11
Best Defense: 0.68, Concordia-Texas vs. McMurry, 2/9
Biggest Win: +0.31, Howard Payne (1.14) vs. Texas Lutheran (0.83), 2/9
Closest Win: +0.03, Howard Payne (0.82) vs. Schreiner (0.79), 2/11
Most Combined Offense: Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.12) vs. Hardin-Simmons (1.07), 2/9
Least Combined Offense: Concordia-Texas (0.80) vs. McMurry (0.68), 2/9

[CUAfan]

Updated Rankings

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Howard Payne (16-3) - 0.99/0.79/+0.20/74.8
2. Concordia-Texas (16-3) - 0.88/0.74/+0.14/76.4
3. McMurry (14-5) - 0.92/0.80/+0.12/68.7
4. Hardin-Simmons (9-10) - 0.93/0.87/+0.06/71.1
5. Texas Lutheran (5-14) - 0.84/0.94/-0.10/70.7
6. Schreiner (5-14) - 0.82/0.93/-0.12/64.1
7. Mary Hardin-Baylor (4-15) - 0.81/0.94/-0.12/71.8
8. Sul Ross State (1-18) - 0.73/1.10/-0.36/72.6

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Louisiana College (16-2) - 0.98/0.76/+0.22/88.3
2. Texas-Dallas (14-4) - 0.89/0.75/+0.14/69.5
3. Mississippi College (12-6) - 0.80/0.77/+0.03/70.0
4. Texas-Tyler (7-11) - 0.91/0.92/-0.01/72.7
5. Ozarks (8-10) - 0.87/0.91/-0.05/71.1
6. LeTourneau (8-10) - 0.79/0.88/-0.08/72.7
7. East Texas Baptist (4-14) - 0.81/0.94/-0.13/75.0

[CUAfan]

Projections for the upcoming weekend + Monday

February 16
Hardin-Simmons 74 vs. Sul Ross State 57 (72 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 81 vs. Sul Ross State 53 (61 poss.)
McMurry 62 vs. Howard Payne 63 (72 poss.)
McMurry 60 vs. Howard Payne 42 (70 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 60 vs. Texas-Dallas 63 (71 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 68 vs. Texas-Dallas 54 (64 poss.)
Schreiner 60 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 58 (68 poss.) [projected SU at home by mistake]
Mary Hardin-Baylor 63 vs. Schreiner 62 (61 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 59 vs. Concordia-Texas 66 (74 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 61 vs. Concordia-Texas 76 (75 poss.)
Louisiana College 80 vs. East Texas Baptist 63 (82 poss.)
Louisiana College 105 vs. East Texas Baptist 75 (106 poss.)
LeTourneau 63 vs. Ozarks 62 (72 poss.)
LeTourneau 71 vs. Ozarks 63 (72 poss.)

February 18
Mississippi College 64 vs. East Texas Baptist 56 (72 poss.)
Mississippi College 68 vs. East Texas Baptist 58 (76 poss.)
Schreiner 56 vs. Concordia-Texas 63 (70 poss.)
Schreiner 48 vs. Concordia-Texas 60 (64 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 64 vs. Howard Payne 67 (73 poss.)
Hardin-Simmons 81 vs. Howard Payne 76 (70 poss.)
LeTourneau 56 vs. Texas-Dallas 62 (71 poss.)
LeTourneau 39 vs. Texas-Dallas 52 (61 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 64 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 62 (71 poss.)
Texas Lutheran 80 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 75 (74 poss.)
McMurry 72 vs. Sul Ross State 53 (71 poss.)
McMurry 105 vs. Sul Ross State 40 (77 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 67 vs. Ozarks 63 (72 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 64 vs. Ozarks 65 (73 poss.)

February 20
Louisiana College 71 vs. Mississippi College 61 (79 poss.)
Louisiana College 102 vs. Mississippi College 75 (87 poss.)

If all those winners hold true (which is highly unlikely), then the tournament seeds would be as follows (assuming I understand the tiebreaker rules properly):
West:
1 - Howard Payne (18-3), by virtue of better record vs. McMurry (2-0 vs. 1-1 for CTX)
2 - Concordia-Texas (18-3)
3 - McMurry (15-6)
4 - Hardin-Simmons (10-11)

East:
1 - Louisiana College (18-2)
2 - Texas-Dallas (16-4)
3 - Mississippi College (13-7)
4 - LeTourneau (9-11)

[mcmfan]

Wow, this is a pretty big upset: McM 60, HPU 42.  Unless Concordia blows their last game, they win the division.  HPU seems to have come in cold for a game they had to win.  Since McMurry was probably going to stay in 3rd place no matter what happened, the incentive to win should have all been on the Yellow Jackets.  Apparently it wasn't.  Anyone know what happened?  Someone at the game said that one of the players came in injured.

[Inthepaint]

I have not kept up with things for a few years. My, the status of teams in the ASC have sure done a 180.

[mcmfan]

This is a weird year.  Attendance at the games seems to be down, and there are practically no postings in this discussion section except for CUAfan's game predictions.  Why?  This looks like CUA's breakout year, so I'd think there would be more excitement than when HSU or HPU were shoe-ins to win the conference.  Maybe it's because there are no clear headline players, like we've had in the past?

[CUAfan]

I've been kind of surprised at the lack of discussion as well. A few years back when I was posting regularly, I recall there being much more activity.

As an aside, I'm going to be out of town next week once the regular season games finish, but I'm going to try to post a full projection of the tournament, plus a set of team profiles over on my blog (I'll post a link once the first ones are up, if I manage it).