WBB: Northwest Conference

[parklandpride]

UPS combats their inexperienced post with the rotating zone D. They also force time off the shot clock with their press and dont allow teams to get set up without burning time.

Maybe they dont get a lot of 1/2 court looks in the paint, but their offensive success is getting out on the break and getting penetration for the drive and bucket or drive and dish. Even in the 1/2 court set, UPS loves to drive or come off the screen catch and shoot.

I think UPS's two losses were due to vulnerability in the middle. Did their most recent win over L&C demonstrate their ability to adjust? The box scores from the last two games with the W's showed that most of the points were given up in the paint, but the Loggers prevailed. Against Whitworth turnovers were a major difference in UPS favor. Against Whitman the Loggers buried them from deep.

Don't sell the Loggers short....even with their NWC record on the East side is 5-7 the past 6 years.

[Kibitzer]

I really have to agree with Chem on this one. I look for UPS to "upset" PLU tomorrow night due to PLU's inability to defend inside. The big freshman girl will hurt them unless PLU's freshman can avoid foul trouble.

And contrary to what rimshot says, PLU gives up way too many points inside. I think UPS wins two games this week and goes on to secure the league title.

If I'm wrong, I'll go back to sweeping floors for a living.

[parklandpride]

I do find it a little intersting that everyone seems to be talking about PLU's inability to defend in the paint. Now I do agree that defensively, that is where PLU is weakest and where L&C was really able to do the most damage.

I do think that if UPS is going to get the win against PLU it is going to have to start in the paint, because the Lutes perimeter D is the best in the NWC and Nikki Johnson is the single best defensive playing in the league.

And while the box scores do indicate that Karen Chase is starting to get more involved in the UPS system and seems to be finding her grove on the score board and the glass, here is one glaring statistic from the last PLU/UPS game....

Points in the paint-PLU 42,UPSW 28

UPS plays a zone D and was outscored by 14 points in the paint the last time they met. It might just be a completely different story Tuesday night, but it wasnt that long ago in which the Loggers were abused on the inside. It is also worth pointing out that the 3 PLU posts, Buskingham (1), Long (2), and Richardson (1) were never once in foul trouble while two of them logged 35 minutes.

Just some statistical references in case the conversation was leaning toward gut feelings....

[rimshot]

Parkland and others--

Okay points in the paint---doesn't mean it was easy points--but I think it was pretty easy for PLU to score on the Loggers. 
UPS must play big on the defensive end  if they expect to get a W at the house of black/gold.
Johnson the best defender in league-- not sure if I agree there. 
Starters are different for UPS now--according to stats. 
Parkland have you watched UPS play?  I think you might be incorrect on what defenses they are running.
As for nobody in foul trouble--typically few fouls are called by officials in BIG games--and that is an advantage for the more physical Lute team.
Still UPS is the underdog---as always going in to this game. 

[chemguy]

When UPS played PLU last time, they had one of their poorest defensive efforts this season, giving up points in the paint due to failure of off side help arriving for the lob inlet pass.

They have corrected that situation over the past few weeks, and the defense is now quite solid.  There will be no easy points in the paint, just ask Dee Dee if she had any easy points last weekend against UPS.

The "new" starting line up is undefeated. Craven and Hurst are really starting to add to the outside/driving offense, and no one is going to get easy points off Chase inside.

I think it will be a great game, but UPS should win by less than 10 points.  I'm looking forward to this match-up.

I think we're going to see this final for the season:

1. UPS
2. PLU
3. L&C

I'm not going to hazard to guess on how the NWC play-off ends up at this point.

[parklandpride]

Rim-

I have seen UPS play. Against Evergreen State and against PLU. At that time they played a zone press and fell back into a zone. I will admit i haven't seen them since, they doing something different?

While we are talking about it, if Nikki Johnson isnt the best defensive player in the NWC, who is?

I love the bold predictions from Chem...L&C as the 3rd seed...interesting.

Wish i was there to see the game tonight...guess i will just read about it online

[parklandpride]

Well it is all tied up. This is going to be a fun finish. Good win for the Loggers. I can only go by what i heard on the radio and see on the box score. Lets see...

UPS out rebounded the best rebounding team in the league by 10. Looks like because of that UPS got 20 more shot attempts which is a pretty significant stat. Only 23 total fouls in the game, and UPS only getting to the line 5 times. Nice to see the officials let them play.

Well dang, the Loggers are playing some good ball. Looks like we have a NWC fight on our hands and it is in Tacoma. Losses are to L&C at home, both got one on the others home court...Loggers 17-3 (9-2) PLU 16-3 (9-2). Both have to travel east, both still have to play Fox.

Someone said they thought UPS would go 4-0 in the stretch against L&C, Pacific, PLU and Fox. 3-0 so far...that would be a pretty impressive feat. Think i might just go and watch that UPS/Fox game.

Nice win Loggers....the NWC remains exciting.

[Kibitzer]

It looks to me that the differnce in last night's game was rebounding. The Loggers pulled down 16 offensive rebounds (to PLU's 5) which adds up to a lot of second opportunities. The PLU post players had a combined 7 rebounds (all by Long) whereas the UPS guards had over 20. Either the rebounds were coming off long or someone was getting out hustled.

The Loggers are on a roll. PLU needs to respond quickly to avoid another crash and burn finish. They could conceivably lose out.

Momentum favors UPS.

[rimshot]

PLU will not lose out---too many good athletes---N.J. can carry that team on the offensive end---if Mann continues to have back problems--they will need someone to take over pg duties--Turner?

GFU-could win out the way their schedule is set up---all home games except at PLU---I think GFU schedule has them playing the bottom of the NWC, besides UPS and PLU--I could be wrong--I just glanced at NWC schedule.

UPS-bad schedule--at GFU then at the W's who each had weekend home sweeps.  The next road games will determine UPS' fate.

Whitman/Whitworth/LC--this weekend determines who stays in the race.

[chemguy]

Rimshot,

I agree with most of what you say, I anticipate that PLU will lose only one more game (L&C) and will finish Conference @ 13 - 3.

While UPS does have a tough snext 3 games, I believe they will win them, and win out and will finsh Conference @ 14 - 2.

GFU will lose only 2 more games, (UPS & PLU), and will finish Conference @ 10 - 6.

Whitworth will lose 3 more games (L&C, UPS & PLU) and will finish Conference @ 9 - 7.

L&C will lose one more game (GFU) and will finish Conference @ 11 - 5.

Whitman will lose 4 more (L&C, PLU, UPS & Whitworth) and finish Conference @ 7 - 9.

Based on these outcomes, L & C would play @ PLU, winner to play UPS for the automatic berth. 

You're right, this week end and next will be very telling.

[parklandpride]

Chem -

Why do you think PLU's loss will be to L&C versus games @Linfield, @Whitworth, @Whitman, and vs. GFU? What is it about L&C that makes you think they will lose to them?

Just to play devils advocate, what makes you confident UPS will sweep on the East side? You know me, I want reasons, stats, match ups that make you think that will happen.

A real concern for PLU should be the condition of Mallory's back. She is their floor general and while Gibbs is a nice PG, Mann runs that team. Could be a major blow to the Lutes if they can't get some others to step up.

[Kibitzer]

I predict the race will be closer after this weekend. Come Saturday night, UPS and PLU will both be 9-3 and George Fox and Lewis and Clark will both be 8-4. Here's why:

1. I know Fox is having their internal problems, but I think they will pull their act together enough to survive the UPS visit. They won't take them for granted and I don't think they will allow Kitty Keaton to go off on them again like they did in Tacoma;

2. Linfield always plays PLU tough. Their quickness and general style of helter skelter play always affects the Lutes' performance. With Mann injured and maybe even not playing this weekend, PLU simply will not be able to stand up to the pressure they will encounter. They do not have an adequate back-up PG;

3. Lewis & Clark doesn't have the best talent in the league but they have the top coach. That young gal gets more out of her talent than anyone in the NWC and I look for them to sweep the Whits this weekend to stay even with Fox.

This will make next week's Eastern swing huge for the two Tacoma schools at the top of the heep. The question is who will survive?

I'll answer this question next week.

[rimshot]

kibitzer---you can't change your mind on predictions---you said UPS wins two this week now you say the lose at GFU.  Which is it? 

Someone said PLU could lose out but now they are in the play-offs? 

The race is going to come down to the final Saturday---and tie breaking rules for seedings----

Swiss and Andrew if you can't log  on after your team takes 2 road L's then you can't log on after they sweep this weekend...no smack talking after this weekend---take your 2 wins and be a good fans and no trash talking UPS or Pacific---it takes a bold 'poster' to talk during a losing streak.

[swiss]

Swiss and Andrew if you can't log  on after your team takes 2 road L's then you can't log on after they sweep this weekend...no smack talking after this weekend---take your 2 wins and be a good fans and no trash talking UPS or Pacific---it takes a bold 'poster' to talk during a losing streak.

Ahh... you knew I was out here lurking, Rim.  It seems to me that the Bruins now have the rest of the league right where they want them—licking their chops and thinking that the self-destruction that characterized this team in January is their true character.  Maybe they've out "foxed" everyone!

I suppose we'll all find out Friday night.  I'm reminded of Bob Sundvold's quote:  "Basketball is a game that gives you every chance to be great, and puts every pressure on you to prove that you haven't got what it takes. It never takes away the chance, and it never eases up on the pressure."

Admittedly, the Bruins haven't handled the pressure well this past month.  But I still think they have what it takes; and they have six chances left between now and Feb 18th to remind themselves how fun it is to play basketball and win.  I'm looking forward to some "Bruin Magic."

My predictions w/o comment for now (or justification, sorry PP):  PLU 13-3; UPS 13-3; Fox 12-4; L&C 10-6; Whitworth 9-7; Whitman 9-7. 

[Kibitzer]

kibitzer---you can't change your mind on predictions---you said UPS wins two this week now you say the lose at GFU.  Which is it?

• I changed my mind after talking to some friends connected with the Fox program. I think they have worked out their internal issues and are ready to make a strong finish. 

Someone said PLU could lose out but now they are in the play-offs? 

• That was me. It was not a prediction, but rather a comment. I stand behind it given the health issues PLU is facing.

I would love to see tonight's game at Fox. I hope someone will have a report. It could be a wild one.