WBB: Northwest Conference

[Tuxguy]

        As I understand it, there will be a NW conference tourny this year. How many teams will make it in?
        And will they take the tourny Champ and the reg. season champ to nationals? 

[arforbes]

There is a return to the conference tournament this year.  The top 3 teams are in the tourney with #3 playing at #2 and the winner playing at #1 a few nights later.  Only the tourney winner gets the automatic bid to the dance.  The conference champion, if not the tourney winner, had better be highly ranked nationally and probably have 3 or fewer total season losses to have any chance for an at large bid.  The NWC has not had an at large bid since we became an automatic bid conference in 2000.  We did have 4 bids when we were still eligible for the pool B spots the year before we became an automatic bid conference.  Perhaps, if they don't loose more than 3 total games, GFU or PLU would have a chance at an at large bid this year, given GFU's high ranking and the success of the NWC in the tournament over the last few years.  PLU, UPS, and GFU have all made it to the final 8 the last 3 years.  Speculation, you had better just win the tourney.  Of course, you have to qualify in the top 3 to get to it first!!

[parklandpride]

Forbes is right, the At-large has not been something the NWC has seen since the pool change.

Looking at the over-all records of the NWC today (Jan 11th) I think there are only 3 teams that could possibly secure an At-large bid. Fox, PLU, and UPS simply because of the numbers in the loss column. I am going to apply Whitworth to this scenario to show that an at-large is out of their reach. I think the NWC would be hard pressed to get an at-large bid for anyone over 4 season losses. Just for fun, lets run scenarios for those 4 teams....

Based on this criteria: Said team wins out (excpet loses in the NWC title game). Why would you need the At-large if you won the title game? Also, the season series between the 3 other teams will be counted as a 1-1 split and wins against all other NWC teams. Also, PLU, Whitworth and UPS all have 12 reg season games left, while Fox has 11.  Lets start from the bottom up:

Whitworth: (8-4, 2-2) - If the Pirates ran the table they would end 20-4, 14-2 and have the #1 seed in the NWCT. A loss in the NWCT Game would put them at 20-5 for the season. PLU (19-5)  and GFU (21-4) would be tied at 12-4 in NWC and play the 2/3 game. If Fox won the NWCT they would end 23-4, while PLU 19-6 and Whitworth 20-6 would most likely both be without an at-large. If PLU won the NWCT they would be 21-5, while Fox 21-5 would have a better shot at an at-large than 20-6 Whitworth even though Whitworth won the Regular Season title.

UPS: (10-3, 2-2) - The Loggers run the table and end up 22-3, 14-2 and #1 seed in NWCT. A loss in the NWCT game would put them at 22-4 for the season. PLU (20-4) 13-3 would take the #2 seed and Fox (21-4) 12-4 would be the #3. If Fox wins this NWCT they would end up 23-4 leaving PLU at 20-5 and UPS 22-4. UPS is in better shape than PLU (more wins, less losses and the reg season NWC title). If PLU wins this NWCT they end up 22-4, while Fox stands at 21-5 and UPS at 22-4. Again UPS is in better position record wise as well as claiming 2 Reg season wins against Fox.

See next post...........

[parklandpride]

GFU (13-1, 4-1) - The Bruins run the table and end up 24-1, 15-1 and #1 seed in the NWCT. A loss in the NWCT game would put them at 24-2 for the season. Whitworth would end up 11-5 so they wont make the NWCT. PLU (19-5) 12-4 and UPS (21-5) 12-4 would tie for #2. If UPS wins this NWCT they would end up 23-5 leaving PLU 19-6 and Fox 24-2. Fox will be Top 10 nationally and will get an At-large. Without 20 wins and with 6 losses, PLU is done. If PLU wins this NWCT they would end up 21-5 leaving UPS at 21-6 and Fox 24-2. Same applies for Fox in this scenario, but UPS would be toast with 6 season losses.

PLU (11-1, 4-0) - The Lutes run the table and end up 23-1, 16-0 and the #1 seen in the NWCT. A loss in the NWCT game would put them at 23-2 for the Season. GFU (21-4) 12-4 would take the #2 seed, and UPS (19-6) 11-5 would be tied with Whitworth (17-7) 11-5. I don't believe overall record is the tie break, loss to lowest conference team is so in this scenario UPS would have a loss to L&C while Whitworth would have a loss to Linfield. Since 6 and 7 losses isnt going to get you an at-large anyway, i won't even apply this scenario to either of them. If GFU wins this NWCT they would end up 23-4 leaving UPS 20-7/Whitworth 17-8 and PLU 23-2 eliminating UPS/Whitworth from any At-large hope.

Some scenarios for thought...have a good evening.

-PP

[Tuxguy]

Thanks for the info, One last question. With 3 teams, Is  that how most Conference  tournaments are done? Thanks again!

Good luck to the NWC!

[parklandpride]

11 points in the 1st half...38 for the game....Hello D.

[rimshot]

Parkland-
How can you do that much math?

Tuxguy-
NWC in my very small opinion should have 6 teams in play-offs but I bet many of the coaches would like 4 teams.

Anyone-
Here is something to ask youself
1) Best 1-2 scoring threat in NWC over the last 5+ years.
2) Best point guard in NWC over the last 5+ years.
3) Best underdog victory
4) Best big tandom

Parkland-
Do the math again after next week when I think all teams will have completed first 8 games of NWC.

[parklandpride]

Here is something to ask youself
1) Best 1-2 scoring threat in NWC over the last 5+ years:
1-Speer/Shogren, 2-Lacey/Doud/Prazeau

2) Best point guard in NWC over the last 5+ years:
1-Becky Franza, 2-Becky Thompson

3) Best underdog victory:
1-Feb 14th 2003 (Linfield 66 - Whitworth 43) 2-Whitman Season ('03-'04)

4) Best big tandom:
None of them played together long enough but.... Vanni/May, Iserman/Berg, Lacey/Cave, Millet/Hahn, Ludwig/Sorenson (Solos: Patula, Wakefield, Bradstreet, C. Johnson, Schwing)

[rimshot]

Swiss where are you?
Maybe you are already in the stands waiting for Friday night's showdown between the two teams that will fight it out for NWC conference title, the NWC  tournament title and as we all hope not meet in the 1st of 2nd round of NCAA's.

Hellooooooo

[swiss]

Still here... still waiting for the Bruins to put it all together (and from my standpoint, hoping that this Friday will be the day).  They will need one of their best defensive efforts...and a strong offensive showing.  PLU seems to have very balanced scoring (4 averaging double figures) and a 5th player within a basket.  Fox is deep with talent (although injuries have slowed them some in recent weeks) but they have not spread the scoring around quite as much as they will need to if they are going to exploit the weaknesses of stronger defensive teams.  It looks like PLU has been winning the battle of the boards this season and the Bruins have not... but they'll need to. The Bruins have more blocks & steals, created more turnovers, and have more assists.  The Bruins shoot and make more 3 pointers but the Lutes overall FG percentage is better.   FT % is about the same.  Of course, none of this means much since only what happens on Friday will be reflected on the scoreboard.  And... as I noticed in the paper today, Sacramento (in last place and minus three key players) managed to beat Phoenix (in first place) by 29 or so.  I love Basketball!  It makes perfect sense and no sense all at the same time. 

I'm expecting this to be a grudge match following last years nailbiter at PLU that put Fox over the top.  I don't think there is any question this is "the" most critical game of the season for both teams up to this point.  Look for a good crowd, and an intense effort from the Bruins as they face what is sure to be an equally strong showing from the Lutes.  If you can't get up for a game like this one, basketball's not your thing!

[andrewf]

I know I'm looking forward to it, I'll certainly be in the stands.

I see that Fox has about 3 players down with injuries, will it cause a difference?

[swiss]

I see that Fox has about 3 players down with injuries, will it cause a difference?

I'm certain it will make a difference.  I'm just not sure how.  Anytime you lose a piece of the puzzle you have to find a way to compensate.  Some players make an intangible difference, some are more obvious.  Team chemistry can be a fragile balance. 

But, sometimes injuries open the door for someone else to step up and fill the gap (e.g. read the article I alluded to in my last post regarding Sacramento and Phoenix).  I believe there are great games (or, at least great plays) in everyone, just waiting for the right opportunity to be expressed!  We'll soon find out who has the courage to step up and accept the challenge this game offers.

[parklandpride]

Is someone else going to take a stab at Rim Shots questions? I want to see others opinions. Yours too Rim Shot

[swiss]

Is someone else going to take a stab at Rim Shots questions? I want to see others opinions.

I don't have the history with this conference that you do PP so I'm at a loss  .  I'll just defer to your opinions (and other's) on this one.  But... I'll throw in my vote for the "twins," (Kim Leith and Robin Taylor) for a 1-2 scoring threat.  Kim is as good at 1 on 1 as anyone I've seen and Robin frequently reminds me of the way James Worthy used to fly down the sideline for the Lakers and fill the lane at full speed.  I did see Speer and Shogren a few times though and if I was building a team around an inside presence I'd sure be willing to start with them.

[big_al]

I'll take a stab at one of Rimshots questions, unfortuneatly this is only my fourth season of watching NWC play.

I'd just like to throw out there that the biggest scoring THREAT that I've seen was the Duo of Clark and Leith. Speer/Shogren (in the games I saw) were very consistant, But Liz and Kim especially last year when working with a team of building underclassmen, could score at any time on the court, from wherever they chose, whether it be from behind the arc or posting up on the block. I still say that if somehow they would have been able to get some rest, and not gone 40 minutes two nights in a row, there would be an even shinier banner hanging from Miller Gymnasim.
Anyway, enough of my inexperienced thoughts about history, and to the present.
As far as Injuries go, I see it impossible to not effect the Bruins. They've gone from a team that in each of it's first 4 league games, ran a 3 platoon system the first 15 minutes of the ballgame, every 5 minutes rotating in 5 fresh players that hadn't been in yet. This was a huge factor in allowing Fox to press all 40 minutes of the game. Even the scoring stars such as Leith and Taylor rarely saw more than 30 minutes of PT.
One area that injury has clearly effected Fox is with the loss of Karissa Boyd. Losing the secondary point gaurd, especially in a fast pase, press constantly style of play, is forcing other players to step up, into a position that they aren't necessarily familiar with, and unfortuneatly can become adapt overnight.

Here's wishing a swift recovery to any players in the league that are hurt.