WBB: Northwest Conference

[BruinFan]

mkt - thanks for the in-person observations from the GFU vs. LC game.
I had family commitments that kept me away.  UPS vs. GFU will be a big game next Friday in Tacoma.

[BruinFan]

2nd time through conference play begins Friday night.

I doubt if the top 4 (GFU, WW, UPS, and WM) will line up so nicely in the 2nd half, but it sure did for the first half. Odds are that someone is going to break ranks.
George Fox beat all 3
Whitworth only lost to GFU
UPS only beat Whitman
Whitman lost to all 3 above them

Those four teams went a combined 20-0 against the other 5 teams in the conference. Anyone reading this from outside the conference should not take that to mean that the bottom 5 are weak. It is likely that they would all find more success in at least 30 other conferences across the country.

Team most bummed for missed opportunities has to be Pacific. They are 3-5 in conference, but only lost 1 game by double digits (to George Fox). The Boxers lost at home to Whitworth by 4, at home to Whitman by 3, on the road at UPS by 7, and at home by 2 in overtime to Lewis and Clark.

George Fox has the toughest schedule in the 2nd half as they play UPS, WW, and Whitman all on the road beginning with UPS on Friday night. UPS also has the Whits coming to Tacoma, so a great opportunity for the Loggers if they can hold serve at home.

I still don't see very many upsets coming from the bottom five teams. If Whitman were to drop a game to a lower team, it will make their effort to move up from #4 very difficult. I think the only thing to be decided is the seeding order for the conference tournament involving George Fox, Whitworth, Puget Sound, and Whitman.

[d3wbbfan]

Been busy of late, but I'd like to offer deeper, beyond-the-recap/Box Score insights of the two Top-4 NWC games that I've seen in their entirety during the past week. They were surprises/much to learn from both games, which is great. For me, the unexpected always makes the games more fun to watch. Ultimately, my #1 reason to watch is to always take in the highest level of DIII WBB that I can, no matter the teams/leagues. And for me, year in and year out, the NWC rarely ever disappoints.

I'll start with the 1/30 George Fox at Puget Sound game: 1) Since it happened 5 days ago, and 2) It won't take nearly as long as Whitman's unexpected home drubbing of Whitworth last night, where I have multiple thoughts on both teams. Turns out it was a highly unusual late-season contest, in several ways. More on that one from me ASAP.

George Fox has brought a consistent, high level of game at both ends all season long, and that was again the case Friday night in Tacoma. Where I think Coach Meek deserves the most credit in 14-15 that his top players (Benner, Morris) have completely bought in to their team's much more intense defensive mentality, which takes advantage of the Bruins league-best depth, but means less total minutes for both. Not only are they OK with it, they both clearly benefit, by being fresher late in the contest. Both players did suffer from "disappearing" on offense late in the 2nd half of multiple big games last year. And, although Benner his smartly diversified her formerly always-goes-right-hand post move game some, Meek correctly sensed the primary reason for their lack of late-game points was fatigue-based. Because it hasn't happened to either Justine or Jami this year. At all. At UPS was a perfect example of this.     

Last season's George Fox team would've absolutely lost this game. For the first 29 minutes Friday, the Loggers were clearly the better team. In every way. Fox's press was not bothering the seasoned UPS squad one iota, and both key SRs (Amanda Forshay and Katy Ainslie) were scoring, rebounding, playing great D, and leading by example. And Puget Sound's veteran bench players were hanging tough with the equally skilled GFU bench players. It was so much fun for me to watch DIII women's hoops at this high a level.

When Ainslie made a jumper with 10:43 to go, to make it 54-42 Puget Sound, George Fox was in deep trouble. It didn't look like UPS was going away, or wearing down at all. Coach Meek had to call a TO. I said two things to myself: 1) "This is when we're gonna find out what the Bruins are truly made of. On the road. Against a hungry, veteran, highly skilled fellow Top 25 team, who's playing well." 2) "This is when we're gonna find out if this seasoned Puget Sound group can take that final step, and break through at last against a NWC team that's going to the NCAAs." And, at that moment, I honestly had no clue, except it was looking great for the Loggers....

I was looking squarely at four players. Benner and Morris for George Fox, and Forshay and Ainslie for UPS, to determine the final outcome. One duo delivered big-time, while the other went very quiet. The Loggers' breakthrough win was within reach. But they blinked. During the final 35-19 Bruin run, there were 6-8 "wow-VERY impressive" sequences by the Bruins. And, to their credit, they could then sense "blood in the water", and that the pressure of the moment appeared to be finally starting to get the best of Puget Sound.

Incredibly, Morris scored 18 of her game-high 27 points after that TO, including a 3-ptr the possession right after it, to get her team rolling. Now that's clutch leadership by example, that she's already shown multiple times this year, that honestly hadn't been there a lot during her first 3 years (as Jami Roos.) All the credit goes to her, her teammates and her coach. When it was needed most, George Fox shot 11-13 from the field during that last 10:43. Against a UPS team that *really* D's up. Morris hit 3 3's, a layup, and was 7-7 at the line in crunch time. Benner added 11 during that same span. Lauren Codling and Sammy Naluai, not surprisingly, added the other 6 late Bruin points. UPS didn't shoot awful at the end (6-16). In comparison, Forshay went 2-3, for 4 pts, and Ainslie shot just 1-6, had 2 TO's, and also missed a key 1-and-1 FT during that last 10:43. Still, they both played very solid games, and I applaud Coach Payne for UPS' fine overall effort. This 14-15 George Fox team has some serious mojo going for it. I saw that same, uncommon Bruin resolve early in non-conf, at a good Wisconsin Lutheran team. They can seemingly produce something exceptional, when it's most needed. Only great teams possess this quality. FYI, they counted an Ashley Agcaoili desperation 3 at the buzzer that I thought clearly came too late, to cosmetically make the final score appear closer: 77-73 Bruins.

Both of these teams are stone-cold locks for the upcoming NCAA DIII tournament.

[d3wbbfan]

If you check back to my Nov/Dec 2014 NWC posts, I went into much detail about Whitman. I was quite frustrated. I felt that as long as you still have Heather Johns, the NCAAs were still possible. NWC coaches agreed. In a close vote, they thought the Missionaries' would repeat as league champs. My issue was 100% with who Coach Ferenz was playing. Heck, she's the HC, and these are her decisions to make. I respect that. All I can say is that I used to both coach and recruit at the college level. One of my bosses (HC) complimented me a while back. I'll paraphrase. "The reason I always listen carefully to what you say is that, when I've looked back, time has proven to me that you've almost always been right about things. Not 100%. No one is. But 90%+. That's very high. So I trust you. You've helped me to bring in the right kids, convinced me to stay away from kids that ended up not working out elsewhere. You have a knack for knowing who should play a lot, who shouldn't, and what might work on O or D when we're struggling, when I ask you for something. And you never want or need any credit for doing it. So thanks for helping me build my program." That's all I ever needed. It was a very kind of him to privately acknowledge me like that. It was my pleasure to help him out. That person is still at it, leaving for a higher-profile DI WBB job, and is now 15 hours away. We'll always be friends. But one thing that I do know that I still have "the knack". I never mean to hurt anyone. I just see things that I know will work. And I do have confidence. I have been right a lot. My only hope is that Coach Ferenz might read my take on her team, and consider it. I truly only have her and her team's best interests in mind.

The two players who Ferenz insisted on playing huge minutes to all season so far (to her/her team's detriment, I thought) were both DNP Tuesday night: (I wish injury on no one, but I do admit that a part of me said "Thank God" when I knew they'd both be out.) JR Hailey McDonald (ankle injury for the past 2/3 wks-DEFINITELY addition by subtraction, IMO) and SR F/co-captain Hailie Buse (the team's most popular player, but a career role player. My issues with her are 100% basketball-based; a "shooter" with a horrific career 3-pt pct, and she has absolutely NO jumping ability. Had started every game, but was DNP Tuesday. (no idea why, but again, it was *major* Whitman addition by subtraction.) SO G Chelsi Brewer has played WAY WAY too few minutes all year. Finally got just her 2nd career start Tuesday, playing a career-high 34 minutes. Easily the team's best 3-pt shooter, she scored 8 points, played stellar D, and proved to be the perfect backcourt mate with Johns. I would've had this tandem starting together since Game 1-absolute no brainer. (But Ferenz wouldn't bench her starter McDonald, who I would've relegated to garbage time on my team.) To me, the biggest disappointment has been SO Alysse Ketner. I expected more myself, but it just hasn't happened, also since Day 1 this year. Shaky D. Even her shot (her #1 strength as a FR) has largely disappeared. Shaky dribbler. (I'm sure Higgs was counting on picking Ketner's pocket several times on Tuesday. But because Alysse hardly played, it didn't happen. Ferenz' started Ketner Tues, and she played the first 4 minutes, and then she sat her for the last 36. Not a strategy I'm real familiar with (why start her then?), but it worked.) Ferenz also *finally* stopped giving SR career-8-mpg player Katie Gray 15-20 mpg a couple of wks ago. This completely senseless move came WAY too late, as several talented FR could've/should've gotten (and benefitted from) the minutes Gray was getting instead.

Getting to the DIII championship game comes with perks - an excellent Whitman recruiting class. I knew at least three would need to play big minutes immediately. FR Emily Rommel has started most of the year. And deservedly so. EXCEPT for the earlier game at Whitworth. Ferenz didn't start her, and hardly played Emily at all that game. Why? Because she's not ready yet for "The Battle Of The Whits?" Really? Says who? There was zero reason to do that. It negatively affects their confidence. Yeah, Rommel had major foul trouble Tuesday night. But she grabbed 10 boards and scored 6 points in her 17 minutes. Her interior D and work off the glass was key to Whitman's big win. Ferenz has also had a "hair trigger" on pulling Rommel (and all her FR) all season. Far more patience was needed by coach. They don't need to be saved/protected from learning out there. For a 6-footer in DIII, Rommel's game is quite advanced. Had Rommel gotten half the minutes Ferenz wasted on Gray and others early on, that's 25+ more game lessons Emily would've already learned by now. I'll bet less PF's on Tuesday would've been a possible result. FR Casey Poe's progress each game is clearly evident. She's gonna be a very good one. She played 28 key minutes last night, and did many positive things. She's a long, 5'11" with hops, plays super D for a FY, has guard skills, and possesses the offensive skill set to easily play the 3/4 spot at DIII. Again, Buse was getting *way way* too many 2014-15 minutes, that should've instead gone to Poe. If she had, she would also be much further along right now. The blame for Rommel/Poe being less "ready" in Feb. can only go to one individual. 5'10" FR Sierra McGarity was out injured the first month. But she's got a solid basketball body, and is a pure athlete who isn't afraid to mix it up. She's still not 100% up to speed, but she's almost there. Sierra is a natural 3, but Ferenz is giving her minutes as an undersized 4/5. I was thrilled that Ferenz gave her 21 key minutes vs Whitworth. She posted 5 rebounds & 5 points. I'll take that bench production in a heartbeat.

I was SO happy for Heather Johns (26 points Tuesday) last night. It was the first time all year I that truly saw the 1st-team All-American player totally energized, totally engaged, and playing at the incredibly high level I so enjoyed seeing last year. Smiling. Happy. She deserves it. And I was watching Whitman pull away from Whitworth last night, I see Johns out there with these four players: a SO (Brewer) and 3 FR (Rommel, Poe & McGarity.) Better late than never, I guess!

But there's other talent here. JR Hailey Ann Maeda's overall game (13 points last night) has really kicked in during NWC play. She's Whitman's #2 best player. And I'm not totally anti-SR. 6'0" Heather Lovelace is quite valuable as the first big off the bench. She's got a deadly 8-10 foot short jumper, and the wily veteran can give you extended quality minutes, if needed. Ferenz now needs to go with a primary rotation of 7. Start Johns (1), Maeda (4), Brewer (2), Rommel (5) and Poe (3). Lovelace and McGarity are the top subs. Poe played PG for 4 yrs in HS, so she can switch over to the (1), as can Brewer, and you still have Ketner, who I wouldn't give up on, just yet. She's just shown too many flashes of greatness.

Whitworth shot the ball *so* bad at Whitman last night, my only explanation is that the chef that prepared the Bucs pre-game meal spiked in 25 5-hour energy drinks with his cooking liquid, and then topped it off by serving them all pot brownies for dessert!!      Bad shooting is one thing. But when nearly half the 2-pt shots, even from close range, looked like they were being fired out of a bazooka, instead of being shot by a player, something doesn't add up. And while Whitworth was 0-15 from 3 on the game, not a one of them was remotely close - my recollection is that more than half were *total* air balls. Off by a country mile. Even if the basket was the size of a hula hoop, the Pirates still would've shot 0-15 from 3. If I live to be 100, I'll never see a team shoot worse than I saw the Bucs last night. I honestly have no rational explanation for it. They also missed 10 of their 25 FTs. Yeah, Whitman played zone vs Whitworth, but Lewis & Clark played them zone, too. The Pirates swept them. Coach Ferenz went with a ton more young players than she did up in Spokane. And while they are more skilled at the defensive end than most FY's are, it's hard to believe that they could so completely lock down the seasoned Buc veterans. I do know one thing, though. Coach Ferenz threw out some personnel combos last night that Coach Higgs was definitely not expecting to see much of in her pre-game scouting report. Basically, "out with the old, in with the new." Maybe that element of surprise was the genius of Coach Ferenz game plan, and proved to be Whitworth's kryptonite. Short-term, the 70-43 Whitman win was arguably the #1 upset of NWC conference play to date. Congratulations to Coach Ferenz and the Missionaries, who haven't exactly had the smoothest of rides as a team themselves this campaign. It'll be fun to see a possible third meeting between the Whits. But you can only play that "element of surprise" card once, so I'm sure Coach Higgs will be ready for whoever on her roster Coach Ferenz sends out there against the Pirates, if there is a next time in the NWC playoffs/NCAAs.

[Pat Coleman]

For what it's worth, d3wbbfan, the coaches I've talked to say that a deep tournament run or a title really doesn't manifest itself until the year after. Most kids are already committed by the time you finish that tournament run in late March, so you might turn a couple kids who were on the fence, but you won't do as well as you'd do the following season.

Just food for thought. Appreciate your posts.

[d3wbbfan]

I do 100% agree with you on that point, Pat. Thanks for making it. My last post was unclear. I knew myself that Whitman WBB had also won 3 NCAA games/gotten to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. That absolutely happened too late to positively impact '13-14 recruiting, but it did give Ferenz & Co. great recruiting momentum *all* during last season's dream run. My characterization of the high-level '14-15 Whitman FR was intended to reflect the initial impact that the past *two* Whitman successful NCAA teams has had, as to the higher quality of their recruits. Hey, I'm not saying that the best '14-15 Whitman FR are Michigan's "Fab 5" reincarnated. Far from it. All I am saying is that they are clearly an improvement over previous classes. Even Anderegg/White/Traver, for all their achievements as upperclassman, all did little as FR and SO's. It wasn't until Johns came on board, that it truly started to all come together.

[d3wbbfan]

George Fox easily dispatched of both Willamette (at home) and at the only '14-15 NWC team that really can't hang with all the others, Pacific Lutheran. The Bruins travel to "Whit Country" next weekend. Whitworth Friday, and Whitman Saturday. Fox is firing on all cylinders these days, and both of these games were basically over before halftime.

Puget Sound rebounded well after the home loss to GFU. They had to work some (you also do in the NWC), but won 71-57 at Pacific (OR) and 65-49 at Willamette. JR Emily Sheldon put 31 on the Boxers. I love her game. She's had numerous outstanding efforts this year. Her Friday explosion now has her actually leading the team, at 13.7ppg (Forshay 13.2/Ainslie 12.7).   

If UPS is fortunate enough to be shipped out for the NCAAs, there's many a 4-team pod where the Loggers will advance. Although I honestly think it would be the *far* more fair/equitable thing to do to ship out the #2 NWC team (looks now like Whitworth), as a reward for finishing 2nd, if you will, and leave Puget Sound, as the #3 NWC team, behind in Newberg, to possibly have to deal with George Fox. That hasn't been what the NCAA has historically done, however. When they do ship an NWC team out, it's usually been the #3. (In that case, should an NWC coach try to finish 3rd, to escape the Bruins pod? I think I would consider it, were I a coach. Which is why I made the suggestion. Because I always want teams to do their best, and try 100% to win every game. I hate when any team considers "tanking", in any sport, to improve their place in the draft, for example.)

Whitman wins at Linfield Fri, 66-54, and Whitworth wins there Sat, 68-61. The Wildcats coach (Robin Potera-Haskins) is a spitfire (albeit a tad crazy), they've got some talent, and they've got some loyal, vocal fans who always make it tough for opponents in McMinnville. Both Whits had to work fairly hard for their road wins this weekend, who both had the injury bug bite. Lexie Zappone was in street clothes and limping noticeably in the end-of-game Linfield line Sat. This is a MAJOR loss for the Bucs. Behind KC McConnell, she's the team's best player. She's their best defender (on a team full of them), and she is the league's best PG not named Heather Johns. Superb handle, superb passer, clutch, knows when her team needs her to score, deadly at the FT line late, and she understands what Helen Higgs wants to a T. If Lexie's not back in the lineup by Friday, you can wave bye-bye to any chance Whitworth has to beat the Bruins in Spokane, IMO. The Pirates have other solid guards, but none are even half as good, all-around, as Zappone is.   

The Whitman bench had SO Alysse Ketner in street clothes Fri. (now I know why she only played the first 4 mins vs Whitworth Tuesday-and in-game injury I did not see.) The 6'2" FR Kendra Winchester tore an ACL in practice recently, and McDonald and Buse are still out as well. Whitman stayed 100% healthy during their big NCAA run last year, but the injury gods have a way of balancing out the ledger, over time.

I don't spend much time here posting on NWC teams #5 thru 9, but Pacific (OR) has consistently played teams very tight during NWC play. They get out to consistently quick starts, and have been difficult to try to reel back in. Currently 5-7 in the league, they've lost 5 real close ones: by 2 (OT), 3, 3, 4 and just 7 at UPS. After all this heartbreak, they honestly deserved a nice road win, and finally got it Sat - a 76-53 win at Lewis & Clark, who at 4-8 in conference has also proven to be a more difficult challenge then I'd projected in pre-season. In fact, this was the first Pio league game all year where they didn't manage to honestly hang within 7-15 point range, all the way to the end. I do like what I've seen so far in first-year L&C coach Asha Jordan.

[80sshorts]

Three days to go until the big showdown in Eastern Washington. Maybe the last stand against George Fox's undefeated regular season run. George Fox smacked down both teams in their first meeting but that came at home and teams make adjustments. Plus, you never know what will happen on that Whit trip. Who you got?

[BruinFan]

Whitworth struggled last week by getting badly beaten at Whitman last week and not taking control of the game at Linfield until the last 5 minutes or so of the game. As noted by d3wbbfan the Pirates were down a starter due to injury.  Whitman is beginning to surge.

George Fox has been swept on this trip the last 2 years, so it is hard to make a confident prediction that the Bruins will prevail. I do think George Fox should be the favorite in both games. They are playing well right now.

I think the first regional rankings of the year come out sometime tomorrow. I will be curious to see who is #1 in the West. I think George Fox should get the nod over St. Thomas due to a stronger conference and the Bruins SOS is higher than the Tommies.

[BruinFan]

Saw someone forecasting another region's rankings and thought it would be fun to do the same for the West.

1) George Fox (NWC)
2) St. Thomas (MIAC)
3) Whitworth (NWC)
4) Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (SCIAC)
5) University of Puget Sound (NWC)
6) Luther (IIAC)

Not sure if 5, 6, or 7 schools will be ranked. Other schools in the mix are Whitman (NWC), UC Santa Cruz (IND), and Bethel (MIAC).

[80sshorts]

I have St. Thomas with a region record of 20-0. George Fox has a region record of 19-0 because they played fewer D3 and West Region/Region 4 teams during nonconference. Not sure if that gives St. Thomas the nod over George Fox in the first release of rankings because I'm not sure what other criteria goes into the rankings plus these region records are by my unofficial tally. Hopefully the next 3 weeks shed a lot more light on the caliber of both teams.

[BruinFan]

I believe Strength of Schedule (SOS) comes into play for the regional rankings. They can be found using the news tab on the d3hoops main page.  George Fox is 21st on the list (out of over 400 schools) and St. Thomas is 123rd. Other West Region schools of note on SOS are UPS (55), Whitworth (57), Luther (106), and Whitman (119).

St. Thomas only plays its strongest conference opponent, Bethel, once this year. That game will be at Bethel on Feb. 18 and is one to watch in addition to the GFU games at the Whits this weekend.  St. Thomas did come out west and play Redlands and Occidental to begin this season.  It is possible to use those 2 games to do a string of who played who games to attempt to connect St. Thomas and George Fox, but that is always a stretch the longer the string gets.

[bballfan13]

Here's the list of what the primary and secondary selection criteria is this year:

Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III strength of schedule.
   - Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
   - Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3).
   - Add OWP and OOWP to give total strength of schedule
● Division III head-to-head competition.
● Results versus common Division III opponents.
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included.
● Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary
criteria. Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

Secondary Criteria
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against non-Division III opponents,
including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III win-loss percentage.
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents.

Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by the Women's Basketball Committee.
In order to be considered for selection for Pools A, B or C, an institution must play at least 70 percent of its competition
against Division III in-region opponents. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used as a selection
criterion by the Women's Basketball Committee.

You can view all of this in the D3 manual for this year at:
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/DIIIWBBPRECHAMPMANV1.pdf

Also, the in-region record should not matter.  They changed that last year I believe.  They replaced this with the rule that you must play 70% of your games against in-region opponents.  With this they will then count all of your D3 games as part of the selection criteria.

[80sshorts]

Very helpful, thanks!

[gordonmann]

I watched the end of the George Fox-Whitworth game tonight. After watching the Bruins a couple times this year, they are one of the best defensive teams I've seen in a long time. They have great length, good speed, they move their feet and contest shots without fouling. Very, very impressive.