WBB: Northwest Conference

[rimshot]

I was wondering if there might be any nervous coaches out there?  Looking at the standings and this weekends match-ups it seems that there are some very interesting match-ups that could go a very long way in deciding the top 3 of NWC.  Now I know PPride has penciled in GFU at PLU for the title game--but is anyone else willing to go out on a limb?  Is LC the Whitman of 2 years ago?  Can the Loggers hold them off this weekend?  Will Whitman come alive and win all of its' home games.  Can GFU sweep the W's-a must in order to stay in the race for 1st place and that all important first round bye, considering PLU has two easy wins this weekend. 

So I asked the questions------what are some of your answers?

[chemguy]

From what I've seen over the past few weeks, here's my prediction:

UPS will win it's next 4 games, (L&C, Pacific, PLU and GF).  No one appears to think they are a contender, but I believe this is an error.  They took a pretty bad loss to L&C in their opening conference game, but their other two losses were fairly tight games, and were definitely not "on" games for them.  The team has started utilizing their freshman post, who I don't believe can be stopped by anyone in the conference, and are more consistantly playing team defense. If they play their "A" game, ther's no one in the conference that can stay with them.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[andrewf]

I doubt they'll beat GFU at home...they took GFU by surprise and unprepared on the road.  You can bet Scott won't let that happen again especially at Fox.

[swiss]

From what I've seen over the past few weeks, here's my prediction:

UPS will win it's next 4 games, (L&C, Pacific, PLU and GF). 

Chemguy:  I'm guessing UPS will be 2 and 2 in that stretch.  They are not likely to shoot 60% at PLU or GFU.  There is no question they have an outstanding offense but i don't think their freshman post is an unstoppable weapon or even anyone's primary concern.  Keaton was certainly the one who hurt us, but I doubt Fox is going to give her 13 more unimpeded chances from beyond the arc.  It was also the Bruin's worst effort this year.  Still, UPS really put it to Fox in Tacoma and that has to give them some confidence coming down to Newberg.  It should be a battle.

Since PLU beat UPS in their own house, I would think they have to be the odds on favorite to do it again at Parkland. 

L&C is certainly beatable but they are the ones I would be worried about having thier "A" game.  Apparently, when they are on, they are really on.  They are well coached and are only going to get better. 

I agree that you'll likely take Pacific without too much trouble, but the contenders just can't afford to let down against anybody. 

[rimshot]

Swiss-spoken like a true verteran of the board--so you say UPS 2-2 over the next four games?  What about GFU and PLU and LC?  What record wins the conference and what record gets you the third seed?  First to 13 wins--will earn you the title is my humble guess. 

You said you were at the UPS vs. GFU game---and all of Keatons shots were uncontested?  Is that what you are saying?  You said that GFU was unprepared--I have never known an S.R. team to be unprepared--did you mean that?

[andrewf]

I was the one that actually said they were unprepared.

To be honest I believe there was another major factor.  If I remember correctly it was the first game for GFU after the break.  With the time off I believe that the women were off of their game, just as many of us would be after a break.

If you notice the game after UPS, GFU had trouble scoring for the first half of that game as well before the offense finally got back into a rythym.  UPS came ready to play, GF was still half asleep from the break.

[swiss]

Thanks Andrewf for clarifying the quote. 

Rimshot:  Yes, I was at the game.  No, I don't think SR was unprepared.  I do think the Bruins were very flat defensively.  They had just come off a Southern Cal trip and a very tight game against Biola. 

(Which reminds me... I get a little irritated hearing in D3Hoops discussions how the Bruins schedule against non D3 teams somehow taints their record or is an easier preseason path.  I wasn't on the Southern Cal trip but both Hope and Biola are NAIA Div I teams with scholarship athletes competing in the Golden State Athletic Conference with teams like Masters College, Point Loma, Azusa, Westmont, Vanguard, etc.  None of these teams are pushovers, believe me.) 

The Bruins escaped with a close one point win over a very talented team from Biola that included a strong 265 lb, 6'6" Nigerian post.  (Let's see Southern Maine or Scranton take them on, when they are not too busy taking on teams like Husson!)  Fox won that game Mon evening, Jan 2nd, and then after a late flight back, and a short stop in Newberg, headed up to Tacoma to face UPS on Friday eve.  The fact that they were flat physically and emotionally isn't too surprising.  Nevertheless, I'm sure UPS had their own difficulties as all teams do and, if you are going to compete for championships, you have to find ways to overcome the inevitable lags in your energy and enthusiasm.  UPS took full advantage that night, with the Bruins onliy looking like themselves for a brief run in the second half.  UPS shot almost 70% in the first half and 60% for the game so Fox couldn't have been effectively challenging too many shots.  Keaton was 7-13 from 3pt range, I believe.  She must have felt open because I doubt she would have taken that many otherwise.  If they could shoot like that the rest of the way, I think it is safe to assume they will win the conference.  We can't afford to let them and I don't think we will. 

I'm hesitant to predict how Fox will do the rest of the way because I'm too close to the team.  I'll let others do that.  But, it's safe to say that I expect them to win every time they are on the floor.  They have the athletic talent, the coaching staff, the heart, the competiveness, and the basketball skills to do it.  But they each need more than to "want" to win, they have to have the "will," to win every game, as a team.  Win or lose, it's as a team.  If they can get that synergy going, look out.

[andrewf]

Ahh, i'd forgotten about the Cali trip, my apologies. 

[rimshot]

Swiss--my bad---one thing though---any great shooter will take shots--guarded or not guarded--so in defense of all 'shooters' out there---there should always be a hand in their face while they shoot and if there isn't bad defense and if there is--then good shooting.  So I seriously doubt, keaton was unguarded for 13 three(s)---and that is all I will say about that!

I think you are correct about tough schedule in California--and I agree about East coast---but you won't change their minds--so just make sure (I know you can't do this) but anyway Fox just needs to keep winning and show the nation how good they are--same with PLU and UPS---I think this might be the year 2 teams go from the NWC.  Especially with PLU and GFU being ranked---I don't know when regional rankings come out or if they even happen anymore, the use to be published---so if PLU and GFU are nationally ranked I would think they are regionally ranked.

This weekend should be interesting--

[parklandpride]

I'm not going to argue as to whether a trip from California to Tacoma in one week will cause a loss or not. UPS played a tough Tues night game against their cross town rivals and could have excuses as well. What i might suggest is that Fox is going to stuggle with teams that have solid outside shooters and ball handlers....

They play a zone D and have given up a league leading 163 3pt attempts and teams have taken advantage hitting on 43 of them. Maybe it is worth the chance of letting teams bomb away, but if you do that you run the risk of a Logger team going 11-25 with shooters like Keaton getting off for 13 bombs and making 7. Or Kelly Turner hitting 8 of 14 bombs and letting Anna Sticklin step in an hit two huge 3 balls in the last 5 minutes.

Percentage wise the Bruins aren't the worst at defending the three but their zone style D gives teams plenty of looks and UPS and PLU have kids that can shoot the rock. The main difference between this year Bruins and last years title winning team is Liz Clark. She controlled the middle in ways people dont see in a stat book. She anchored that D and allowed the perimeter defenders the confidence to stay further out on D so they didnt have as far to go on a close out.

Last years Bruins allowed 69 makes on 262 attempts. At the 1/2 way mark of this season, the Bruins are on pace to allow 83 makes on 326 attempts. If they want to sure up their zone D, they need to find a way to keep teams from getting the green light to cast away.....

Fox's defensive success is based of pressure in the full court and clogging the middle. When they play teams like UPS and PLU that have solid ball handlers, can show patience in breaking the press, will work the shot clock and can either shoot the 3 ball or has someone that can panatrate and find the open player (See S. Carnahan's 6 assists and M. Mann's 16 assists) they are going to have a battle on their hands.

With that said, as long as the Bruins dont lose one on the East side, they are too good to lose to anyone else in the league other than maybe PLU or UPS. I think the conference champion will be 14-2 and it will be a tie between Fox and PLU. The UPS at Fox matchup will be a completely different game at Wheeler and the Bruins are the one team that has consistantly won in Parkland. UPS will be the 3 seed (12-4) because L&C won't win on the road at PLU, UPS and Fox. While it will be a close game at Olson, UPS will fall short to the Lutes in the Dome.

Just some humble predictions for the rest of the season.

[parklandpride]

Well it looks like the Bruins lost one on the East side...Whitworth gets the W. So i was wrong and right all at the same time...

PLU and UPS win tonight on their home courts.....

[rimshot]

Hard to tell what happened by the UPS/LC box score--looks like a tough game--and LC held Keaton to just 3 points---PLU looks to coasted to an easy win with tons of people getting minutes--Linfield/whitman looked like a free throw shooting contest--(whitman mostly) and Whitworth/GFU--I don't understand---Kim looked like she tried to bring them back but low scoring for GFU---notice all games winners were in the 60's on Friday. 

Parkland you are giving UPS a 12-4 record---and you said they won't win at PLU or GFU so that means you think they can sweep over at spokane/walla walla--WOW. 

It will be interesting to see what happens tonight in league--tough tough year---you can't just show up---you have to compete and compete hard or pick up the "L"

[chemguy]

Interesting developments over the week end... GFU drops two to the east side W's. UPS wins both their games ande we now have a 3 way tie for 3rd place. I'm assuming GFU will take a pretty health drop in the polls, PLU will probably rise a bit, and UPS will continue to be ignored.  That will probably change after Tuesday.  From what I saw over the weekend, UPS has succeded in establishing the balance that they need to consistantly win games. In my previous post, I didn't mention Keaton or Carnihan, since I assume most who are watching the NWC understand that they are proved commodities.  What has become apperent is that others on the UPS roster are stepping up, which will cause considerable problems for any team.  It's not just "stop Keaton and you've stopped UPS.  In fact, Keaton hasn't really been scoring that much the past few game, but has definately been contributing in other ways that aren't always obvious from the statistics.
Once again, I predict two more wins for UPS this coming week, and a hard fought battle for the third and final play-off spot over the next few weeks.

[parklandpride]

Rim - Regardless of what happened this last weekend on the East side, I do believe that both UPS and PLU will sweep on the East side. It is never an easy trip over there, so far GFU, Linfield and L@C have all suffered weekend sweeps, but i do believe that UPS and PLU are not only better teams, but match up better against The W's.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, Tuesday night is what really matters. UPS hasnt lost since the last time they played PLU in a hard fought game and they seem to be clicking. UPS got one back from L&C and you know they have that plan in mind against PLU. Going to be a fun game, cross town rival, #1 and #2.

[rimshot]

Parkland I am not sure UPS matches up well with anyone as they have just the one freshmen post bigger than 6-0.  So, I think match-ups are in favor of Whitman (especially with Laird) back and maybe 50-50 vs. Whitworth.  PLU has the size so I would expect points in the paint. I have always thought that the eastside trip determines the NWC championship.  Don't know if the stats will prove that out. 

But---I am getting too far ahead--great match-ups that could help clear up the top 3 of keep 7 teams still in the race. 

PLU will play that stiff, physical defense, big size advatage which usually means cleaning up on the glass. PLU doesn't give up any easy points--will UPS respond or play soft.

GFU-must win 2 and they have UPS on Friday--big revenge game.  emotions will be high for Kim and the gang.
The Whits travel to Willamette and LC--will they split or will one of them sweep?
Linfield will get a W this week (could it be against PLU?)