WBB: Northwest Conference

[rimshot]

Swiss-
I am proud of you--good form, although it is Friday and it took you a week or so to come back to us. 

Everyone--isn't it great to have the tournament again.  Now Fox gets hot and can still be in the race and win the tournament and get an NCAA bid.    PLU can get Mann healthy and make the tournament and win the tournament and get an NCAA bid.  LC works some magic in the next few games gets a 3rd seed--upsets the 2 seed and plays #1 but won't make it happen.  UPS takes 3 of there next 5 games, makes the tournament but has to play GFU at GFU or PLU at PLU--ouch. 

Wait--that is too many teams in the tournament---OH that's right---now I remember it should be a 4-count it four team tournament!!!

[parklandpride]

Thats an important thing for the teams to remember, that NWC tournament leaves life in teams for a while. The regular season champ hasn't always won the NWC tourney title either...

So much basketball left to go, anything can happen.

I gotta get to GFU tonight and check that game out...should be another good one

[chemguy]

PP,
Hope you made it to the GFU game Friday. It was quite a defensive battle.

Well, now we have a 4 way tie for the all important 3rd spot in the conference.  Unfortunately, I think Whitworth and Whitman will drop both games this week end, and be out of the race.  The interesting game to watch will be GFU vs. L&C. The winner of that game has a pretty good shot at the 3rd playoff spot.

If L&C brings pressure defense, they should win, as is evident looking at GFU record against tough defense. I have no idea how this one will turn out.

[rimshot]

Tough week ahead in the NWC--no such thing as home court advantage last week as the visitors took 7 out of 9 games.  Anyone notice the scores this week?  Or maybe I should write the lack of scoring this week?  It seemd no one could score---except DeeDee.

Will the visitors take control again this week. Will there be scores in the 60+  Can anyone stop the roll Whitman is on, now that they will play the top 2 teams in Walla Walla. All of the 7-5 teams are hoping for the Tacoma teams to fall flat.  Are the Loggers and Lutes up to the task---does the result of this road trip decide the NWC title?

Who takes 2 this week, besides Fox?

[parklandpride]

Does anyone know what Whitman is doing on the Defensive end? All of a sudden their steals and forced turn overs have jumped way up...anyone know if they are pressing or doing something different on the D end to force all these turn overs?

Might explain their better play, although against UPS and PLU i don't know if pressing really makes a huge difference, both seem to handle the press well anyway. Was just curious since i havent seen Whitman play yet.

They seem to love this late season surge method.

[swiss]

So... essentially the NWC fans get to watch four teams battle for third and the opportunity to play in Tacoma.  It's not what I (or most Fox fans) expected but the drama is incredible.  It should make for some intensely fought games over the next couple of weeks. 

The Bruins are the Jekyll and Hyde team this year.  They can dominate or they can collapse (physically or mentally), sometimes in the same game.  Confidence is such a big factor in this sport and clearly the Bruins have had theirs shaken.  If they can't find it again, and hold on to it from tip to buzzer, then their season will be shorter than they planned. 

I'd say UPS and PLU have peaked at the right time and should finish no worse than 13-3 (although PLU has the tougher schedule and could drop to 12-4 while UPS could finish out their easier schedule with all W's). 

Of the remaining four contenders, I think Fox has the advantage in schedule, followed by either L&C or Whitman, and then Whitworth.  Of the four, Whitman is probably playing with the most confidence following the last two weeks.  However, all things being equal, the Tacoma Duo should win in Walla Walla.  That would potentially drop them to 9-7 at the end of the year.

Whitworth has an uphill battle with their schedule but they play tough at home (10-0) and meet both Tacoma schools there.  But then they would have to beat Whitman at Walla Walla, and DeeDee in her final collegiate game.  She might be determined to go out with a win.  I'm guessing an 8-8 finish for the Pirates.

Assuming Fox beats Linfield at home (Jekyll or Hyde?), the critical game for L&C and Fox will be Friday in Newberg.  If Fox can hold serve, then they get another shot at PLU before a possible tournament game.  If L&C would win, they have to finish out their season on the road at PLU and try to pull off another upset.  For the sake of argument I will put Fox no worse than 10-6 and L&C at 9-7.

Of course, it's all up for grabs to whichever of these six teams want it the most.  The ultimate Champion will play with confidence, intensity, intelligence, and teamwork.  They will defend, rebound, execute, set the tempo, push the other team to their limit, and all the while maintain their cool!  Who's it going to be?  Who wants to keep playing basketball?

[rimshot]

Swiss,
Your last comments are very insightful. 

But, I am not sure the Tacoma duo is all that at ease with having to go eastside and try and take 2-0.  The W's are playing 16-1 home basketball right now--and clearly each teams scores better at home than on the road. Plus, Whitman finally seems to be in the swing of things and healthy--they are believing again for this last run at play-offs.  Afterall they were picked to place 2nd this year.

I totally agree with you about Fox---they are in control of their own play-off fate.  They can have new life---just get to the NWC tournament and win the darn thing---then everyone is happy with their teammates.

I don't think the Lutes or Loggers have done well over the mountains over the last few years---someone had said the Logger record but I don't remember it.

Again the league is fantastic and after all is said and done---let's all hope 2 NWC teams get to go dancing at the end of the regular season.

[ghr]

Rimshot, Your right about not being excited  about going east but nobody ever is. I wish we would get two teams in but as I see it the only way that might happen is if PLU and UPS win out and they decide to take the loser of the conference tournament. Everyone else just has way to many losses. Great conference and man what a finish its going to be. There are six teams with a shot at the nationals with four games left. Good luck to all!

[Kibitzer]

Reply to Swiss who says "So... essentially the NWC fans get to watch four teams battle for third and the opportunity to play in Tacoma"

> I still think PLU is capable of losing out. First, it doesn't sound like their PG will be back which really handicaps them. Second, I don't see how they can survive the Eastern swing this weekend given the home record of the Whits, and third, Fox will have revenge on their mind when they visit Tacoma next week. As for L & C, well..they already have pinned a loss on the Lutes.

PLU managed to beat Linfield but then the Wildcats are finished anyway and probably played without much desire.

I think PLU could be 10-4 after this weekend and just trying to hang on to third place which will probably result in a tie.

The Whits have to look at this weekend as an opportunity. The one who can upset UPS will have a decided advantage in the event of a tie down the road.

[chemguy]

GFU just sqeaked one by Linfield. They will almost certainly beat Willamette, then it comes down to L & C and PLU.  Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say they win out & end up 11-5.  Following that line of reasoning:

L&C should win against Pacific and Linfield, and let's say they beat PLU, they also end up 11-5.

PLU, who has the worst schedule (Whiman, Whitworth, GFU and L&C).  Let's say they win only one of the W's, and end up 11-5.

UPS will lose at most 2 games, so let's say they loose both eastern Washington games, (I personnally think they will win out). That leaves them 12-4 and 1st place.

Whitman and Whitworth will play each other, so who ever looses that game is out.  Assuming the winner of that game win out, they would have a record of 11-5.

So, it's somewhat possible that we'll have a 4 way tie for 2nd place.  Anyway you slice it, the championship game will be in Tacoma, but everyone's still in it until after this weekend.

Again, my prediction:
1. UPS
2. PLU
3. L&C

[arforbes]

Chemguy, the only thing grossly wrong with your scenerio is that L&C will have 6 losses if GFU beats them at home which would put them out of the tie.  However, you may be giving my Bruins too much credence, given the way they are playing.  They have clearly gone from the outstanding team in the conference to a lower upper echelon team.  Hopefully, from my standpoint, they can quickly find a way to get team back in the team and return to the early season form that had them ranked as high as #4 and that allowed them to cruise over Linfield by 20 last time in Linfield vs squeeking out a 1 point win at home. 
If either of the W's win vs UPS this weekend, GFU loses in any tie breaking scenerio, except possibly with L&C if we win at home with them and have a sweep.  GFU almost has to win out to have a reasonable shot, unless both W's get swept this weekend.  Not likely given history and how they are playing.  GFU is somewhat of a longshot right now given their recent play and the fact that they have yet to beat one the leaders.  Given that, and the W's schedule this weekend, your L&C pick may not be that bad, except they also have to play at PLU.   Maybe Whitman, given their home shedule.  It really will be an exciting end to the season, and I remain optimistic that Scott can get the Bruins out of the doldrums.

[parklandpride]

Kibitzer

Did you just say PLU managed to beat Linfield? By 35....that doesnt sound like they "managed" it sounds like they "did". But of course that is only because Linfield is out of it and they didn't really want to play Saturday night? Right....

Did you see the game and how PLU played and what they did to win in such blowout fashion? Or how well Trinity Gibbs played as the new starting PG or how PLU got back to what they do best, play D and rebound the ball?

I find it interesting how you phrase that, "PLU is capable of losing out" as if soon enough their luck should run out and they should get back to playing the PLU style of basketball which is losing in tough games. That while it should be expected that Whitman and Whitworth will beat PLU this weekend the one school that could pull and upset over UPS would have a decided advantage.

Other than UPS's current win streak, what is it that makes them so much more of a prized win or more difficult opponant than the team they currently share first place and a city with? UPS is rolling, no doubt and their current 9 game winning strek is impressive, but other than being surpirsed to see PLU manage to win at Linfield and decide they are capable of losing this weekend, give us some real reasons as to why UPS will win this weekend and PLU wont. History, matchups, styles...something....

[parklandpride]

Here are some reasons why I think PLU and UPS will win both this weekend:

PLU is 7-5 on the East side last 6 years and the only NWC with a winning record at the W's. UPS (5-7) is the next best.

"Whitman is healthy" - Not sure what that means since the starting 5 and key reserves that are playing now are the same that played when they were swept in Tacoma.

Defense - How do you beat teams on their home court that shoot 10% better on average? You have the top two team D's come to town. Along with that they are the top two scoring offenses in the league. PLU also brings with it the best defensive player in the league in Nikki Johnson.

Style - Whitworth is a guard oriented offense which plays into the defensive strengths of both UPS and PLU. UPS might have an even more complete package as they have tightened up in the paint, the area they were once weakest. The W's scoring margins also doesn't leave a great deal of room for error and if both the Lutes and Loggers have it clicking on both ends of the court it will be hard to keep up.

Players - This isnt the Speer/Shogren show anymore and while Whitman boasts the most recognizable starting 5, UPS and PLU are boasting the two front runners for POY in Carnahan and Johnson (sorry D Arnall) and both have a better overall cast.


The major questions: (UPS) While UPS has the 2nd best record on the East, it is still just 5-7. True, but 5 of those losses where when UPS was on the down. Their 9-7 NWC team from last year and back in 2000 when UPS was 3-13. UPS has lost only 2 times on the East side when it meant something.

The major Questions: (PLU) The loss of Mallory Mann. Any time you lose your floor general and school assist record holder you wonder how you might recover. Enter Freshman Trinity Gibbs. While she wont create the pure shot opportunities Mann did for her team, Gibbs is a solid defensive player and plays a control style game. The Lutes have won all year without relying on Mann as a major scoring option, yet Gibbs adds something new to the position, a shooter. The Lutes can also look to Kelly Turner to bring up the ball and saw Anna Sticklin step in at the PG spot on several trips up the floor.

Anyone else have thoughts on how the Tacoma's will do in the east?

[ghr]

What a conference and what a weekend.

PLU will be fine  no matter who  their point guard is. The game agianst Linnfield gave the two young point guards a chance to get their confidence up. Turner has started for four years and was a big part of the upset victory of Whitworth her freshmen year as was Anna S. who I believe scored 18 while playing less than half of the game. Nicky is a veteran player even though she is new to PLu. Z and Trish also are veterans who have been to war on the east side several times.  Then there are a whole list of young players who have had their moments this year. I don't think the Lutes are thinking about blowing up or making the nationals. They are trying to win or share in the regular season championship so they are still focusing one game at a time. Was it luck that PLU came back on Fox from 16 down at Fox? Was it luck that they beat UPS at UPS? I personally like their chances on the eastside this year. Its been a struggle for the past 3 years and the team has won some big games east and lost some big games there also. I think this team is mentally strong and will be ready come Friday night. Maybe if the Lutes pull this out some of you might show some respect (and you know who you are). Having a 17-3 record beating Fox on their court and UPS on their court sure has not  earned them much respect on here.  

[Kibitzer]

PP-

Yes, I said PLU "managed" to beat Linfield, ie managed to win without their point guard which is an accomplishment when you consider the first score between these schools when Mann was healthy.

Linfield "managed" just 11 field goals in 62 attempts (14 more than PLU) which isn't going to result in many wins.

The PLU player's name is Gibbons, not Gibbs.

Without Mann, PLU has to be the underdog in any game from here on out, especially on the road. This is why I say they are capable of losing four straight.

History means nothing. This is a new year and new players. The Whits have home court advantage, a good record at home this year, the guard play to capitalize on Mann's absence, and excellent coaching. That's why I think PLU is in danger of stumbling twice.

And I agree that while Arnall may be the league's most outstanding player, Carnahan is the front runner to win POY honors. She has been UPS' best player all season and leads the Loggers in both rebounding and assists from her PG position.

Just my opinion. No disresect intended.

And while I'm at it, I sure like the job the L & C coach has done with her team this year.