WBB: Northwest Conference

[rimshot]

Wow, I see things have really picked up on the board--must be a big weekend.  I am not sure where to begin---I am not sure if I can reply to all in the same order things were said. But here are some replies.

I haven't a clue what (ghr) is talking about not respecting PLU--hogwash how can you not respect a team that has done what they have done over the last few years.

PLU-won't lose out---do you really think Kelly and company would let that happen.

Healthy again--according to box score Laird played again for Whitman---that means everyone was back for those 2 games--and Lizzy's elbow doesn't seem to be impacting her as much.

UPS-what makes them so special---and what do they have going besides a 9 game conference winning streak---HELLO did you listen to your questions?

PLU-winning at GFU and winning at UPS----HELLO again---UPS winning at GFU and winning at PLU.

POY-coaches pick them----players decide them---
COY-coaches pick them---players decide them---

GFU-don't be sly about them (get it?)----they should not be overlooked.

W/W-are sitting and waiting for the Lutes/Loggers to come to own--they have no fear---they have great fans---they have great teams when they are wearing white uniforms.

Bottom line---don't take things personally on this board and don't say things personally---it takes away from the fans based chatter that should be funny (PP- and for you stat based chatter).  We all know we have our
favorite teams.

2nd bottom line---which coach can have their teams ready to go on the eastside?  who can manage to get a split, or sweep......or will one get swept?

I am sure I forgot something---ohhhh yes, LC---watch-out.  Wouldn't want to play them in the 2 vs. 3 game.

[arforbes]

Speaking of tie breakers, kind of, since the whole board is looking at trying to predict how these next 4 games will evolve and who will be in the highly missed and long awaited playoffs: Does a 3 or 4 team tie first get broken down by games between all of those teams, IE. an expanded head to head scenerio}.  No English teachers are allowed to comment on that last sentence.  I am too old to accept the criticism in a graceful manner consistant with the operating principles of this board!!
I would assume that would be the case, eliminating teams until the tie couldn't be further broken and then relying on the strength of teams beaten tiebreaker.  Would we be back to the coin toss eventually if nothing else broke the tie?  Bah Humbug!  I am sure Parkland {in deference to PP sensitivity} can answer this one in his sleep.

[swiss]

Arforbes:  Good question to ask right now.  Here is what I found on the NWC website.

6.1.2 In case of a tie in the regular season Conference standing affecting
post-season advancement, tie shall be broken by:
1. Head to Head competition in conference games only
2. Results against all teams above those tied in conference games only
3. Results against above teams in rank order in conference games only
4. Order of losses beginning with the 9th seed and moving up to the tied teams
5. Best conference road record
6. Sempert System in conference games
7. record versus non-conference common opponents at a common site
8. Pre-arranged draw by Athletic Directors at the fall meeting
Tie breaking procedure to be used to break all ties including ties for 1st
place. (Adopted January 2005)

[Kibitzer]

swiss-

In the event of a tie between UPS and PLU, my understanding is that a coin flip will take place to determine the #1 seed since they lost to the same 2 teams. If memory serves me, a coin was flipped a couple of years ago (maybe 3) to break a tie.

I doubt it will come down to this but it could. If a coin is tossed I would then make PLU the favorite based on momentum.

[swiss]

In the event of a tie between UPS and PLU, my understanding is that a coin flip will take place to determine the #1 seed since they lost to the same 2 teams. If memory serves me, a coin was flipped a couple of years ago (maybe 3) to break a tie.

I believe that was one reason why they adopted the new rules in Jan 05.

[swiss]

Rimshot:  Take a long, slow, breath... you are going to hyperventilate! 

It is exciting though... all this activity on the board after a year of relative silence.  But we are in the build up to what every fan of every team hopes for.  The opportunity to play for a championship... to be recognized for all the hard work, all the preparation, all the investment of time and talent and energy.  Six teams in the NWC have a shot.  I think the great thing is that at this point each of those six teams still control their own destiny.  If you win... you go on!  If you lose, you may have to rely on someone else to help you go on.  That is not a good position to be in. 

For the games Fri., I still think the Bruins and Pios is the game to watch.  Neither can really afford to lose.  They both face PLU on the road in their remaining games. 

The PLU/Whitman game will be significant in that it will show if PLU is vulnerable.  As with any game, on any night, either team could win, but I still think PLU will prevail. 

Playing in the Fieldhouse at Whitworth is never a picnic.  Shooters can have difficulty with depth perception since their baskets are set quite some distance from the backdrop and the ceiling is so high.  So the venue gives the Pirates an advantage, but I would say their advantage stops there.  In my view, UPS is a much stronger team this year than Whitworth.  Again, anything can happen in this league, but I think UPS will take care of business.

The games Sat. will obviously be affected by the games Fri.  Teams with big wins, OT's, injuries, etc., will obviously impact a team the following night.  On top of that is travel, fastfood, hotel beds, etc.  It wears on teams and the Tacoma teams may be more vulnerable that second night.  If PLU is emotionally flat and has a poor shooting night at the Fieldhouse, they could be picked off by Whitworth.  Not likely, but possible.  If UPS doesn't maintain their focus, then Whitman, which is well supported by their fans, could pull off an upset. Again, not likely, but possible. 

Now, the Pios vs the Boxers.  This one is hard to predict for me.  The outcome of the game against the Bruins will certainly play a role in the Pio's motivation.  A close loss, a close win, a big loss, or a big win... each outcome will likely produce a different level of intensity the following night.  The Boxers have nothing to lose and will probably be pretty loose, and hungry to play a spoiler role in someone else's season.  After all, misery loves company! 

Which brings me back to why I think the Bruins and Pios have the most important and dramatic game of the season on Friday.  The winner should separate themselves from the pack and put the pressure on everyone else.  If the Pios win, the Bruins only real hope will be to beat PLU in Parkland, while waiting to see if L&C will fail there.  The reverse is true for the Pios, but they have to beat Pacific and Linfield as well. 

The Bruins still look like they are in an identify crisis.  They may have forgotten who they are.  And, I don't mean that in an arrogant sense.  I just mean that each of them are outstanding players with significant skill.  I've seen them in many different games and situations and I know how capable they are.  But, in watching them lately, THEY seem to have fogotten how capable they are.  They sometimes remind me of a fighter who has been hit really hard and stands there stunned, unable to defend herself.  They always do best when they take their game to the other team.  I'm hoping we'll see again this year the fire in their eyes that says:  "See if you can stop us." 

[andrewf]

To be honest...as odd as it sounds, i'd say that GFU is still reeling from the shellacking they received at UPS just after Christmas break.

They all of a sudden realized they could lose (and by a lot) and it shattered their confidence.I have yet to see the same team since then.

[parklandpride]

Did you all see the "Around the Nation" article? Nice to see it. Thought you might all enjoy it.

[Pat Coleman]

In the event of a tie between UPS and PLU, my understanding is that a coin flip will take place to determine the #1 seed since they lost to the same 2 teams. If memory serves me, a coin was flipped a couple of years ago (maybe 3) to break a tie.

I believe that was one reason why they adopted the new rules in Jan 05.

Returning to a tournament makes coin-flipping less of an issue. Now the AQ goes to the winner of the tournament rather than the winner of a tiebreaker.

[swiss]

Looks like Whitman took it to UPS tonight by 10.  I'd like to see the game tape.  Was it good defense by Whitman or poor shooting by UPS.  One thing surely hurt them:  They were 14 of 29 from the line.  Anyone at the game that can give a full report?

[swiss]

Returning to a tournament makes coin-flipping less of an issue. Now the AQ goes to the winner of the tournament rather than the winner of a tiebreaker.

Pat:  The issue wasn't the national tournament but the 3-team conference tournament and the 4-team fight for the 3rd seed, or the 2-team fight for the 1st seed (this year). I'm assuming the NWC views "post-season advancement" as applying to the conference tournament since there can't be a tie coming out of it.

[Pat Coleman]

Gotcha. I thought we were referring to the coin flip that decided the women's automatic bid.

[rimshot]

Swiss,

Just a side note---it doesn't look like the Loggers played defense this weekend.....compared to their last couple of games.  They gave up 41 points to Whitworth in the first half alone but stayed in the game by shooting the ball well from 3-point line according to story on the NWC site. 

At Whitman  the box scores shows--poor defense again and only scoring 53 points---along with the missed free opportunties at the line.

PLU played well enough to get a sweep on the eastside of the mountains--no other NWC team can say that....that is why they are in first place.  I see that the gloom and doom reports about Mann seem to be on the upturn.

[chemguy]

The UPS loss to Whitman was a combination of good shooting from Whitman, and poor shooting from UPS. The NWC is now down to 5 teams with a mathimatical shot at the playoffs.

PLU contros its own destiny. If they can win against GFU and L&C this weekend, they will have the first place seed for next weekend.  However, a loss to either team, and UPS wins both their games, UPS will win the tie breaker. The worst they can end up is second.

UPS can drop no lower than second seed, even if they lose both games, since they would win the tie breaker with GFU, and Whitman and L&C can't reachthem in two games.

GFU also controls its own destiny. They can lock up the 3rd place seed by winning both their games, (PLU and Willamette). However, one loss and two wins by Whitman drops them to 4th place by virtue of Whitman's win over UPS.

Whitman needs to win both their games and hope for a loss for GFU.

L&C has a mathimatical possiblity, but they would need alot of help. GFU would need to lose both games, Whitman lose at least one and they would need to win both of their games.  Not very likely.

Looks like both the Thursday and Saturday games will be in Tacoma, at either UPS or PLU. 

Here's my fearless forecast:

PLU loss to GFU, 2nd place
UPS wins both, 1st place
GFU wins both, 3rd place.

In the playoffs:

PLU wins against GFU
UPS wins against PLU
Both go to the NCAA tournament, (I think that's the only way two teams wiould advance.)
 

[Kibitzer]

chemguy-

"However, a loss to either team, and UPS wins both their games, UPS will win the tie breaker".

Let's say your predictions hold true and UPS ties for the championship with PLU with identical 13-3 records.

Why do you say UPS holds the tie breaker? Wouldn't Puget Sound's loss to Whitman give the tie breaker to PLU assuming Whitman finishes below Lewis & Clark?

Wouldn't UPS be pulling for Whitman to finish higher than Lewis & Clark and wouldn't this make the Whitman vs. Whitworth game pretty important to UPS?

We are still looking at several tie scenarios.